RexFavilla
Assuming that’s true, you would also have to believe that the scum among us either chose not to use that information NP2 or was unable to use it. As far as I can tell, the latter requires you to believe Ragnar is scum and Casey is telling the truth (fair enough if you do, I guess), and the former requires you to believe that scum would actively choose not to put us in MYLO this DP despite the obvious opportunity to do so.

Thinking about Casey from a 'Casey is scum perspective', why would she claim to be roleblocked if she was scum? Her claim seems crafted, if it is a fake claim, to explain away rolebocking visits as also having an additional fake 'protection' utility that would always appear to be real because scum would just NK someone else. Why claim she was roleblocked, which just raises additional suspicions? Why not just claim to be vanilla or something if you were going to do that?

RexFavilla
At least from my interactions with him, I don’t buy that he big brained this and just figured you out. He seemed very set on Pie at first and changed his mind while we discussed it. I also think it was a massive risk to give me his result before even learning what your role was. I think you’re assuming a lot. I also think it’s doubly odd that, finding out that you were a Tracker NP2, he would then proceed or his scum partner to kill Mharman rather than kill the obvious investigative role.


Was info about Mharman's role known NP3? It seems like there was some kind of plan that multiple people knew about - if one person in that circle was scum then they might know that he had some manner of protective role. If they knew that and also knew that Mharman didn't know that they knew, then that would be the ideal time to NK him. I don't really know Earth/Shining's level of acumen, having never played with him before, but if he is scum then he's on a team with other people who could have told him what to tell you regarding my night action and helped him to craft a fake claim. Maybe he's not up to the task of figuring it out himself as you seem to be implying (I personally don't know the guy), but if he had a competent scum team/partner he wouldn't need to.

RexFavilla

Earth also kind of hopped on my retard wagon DP2 wordlessly, just sheeping me, which after the flip always struck me as a bit sus. The main thing that makes me scumread Supa less (even though his severe inactivity reaaaaally has me side-eying him) is that Supa actually argued against the RT lynch and tried to derail it. If I was scum and I knew that Rex was town and that RT was telling the truth about his role I would sheep if I needed to, to make the lynch go through while avoiding as much blame as possible.

RexFavilla

I will have a lot more time to go over the other DPs on Monday, just got caught up on this DP. Off the cuff reads are:


Whiteflame: Town

Pie: Town

Ragnar: Null

Casey: Lean Scum

Supa: Lean Scum

Earth: Scum


I think Pie's arguments for Shining/Earth make a lot of sense. The Lens of Truth makes sense as a rolecop or a cop, less sense as tracker or watcher or something along those lines. It also seems bizarre to have a tracker and a 1x delayed tracker in the same game. Also seems bizarre to have a PGO and a Beloved Princess - seems absurdly swingy. I'm also less convinced by his results on me. I said something in DP2 iirc that I now trust pie and that he's my top townread so I disclosed my role to him. Earth could have easily surmised from that post that I had an investigative role and had used it on Pie DP1 - plus I think that investigating your mason partner if you have an investigative role is kind of a no-brainer. If Earth did rolecop me DP2 it would be even less of a huge stretch once he knew that I was a tracker to claim that he saw me visit Pie DP1.

RexFavilla

I will have a lot more time to go over the other DPs on Monday, just got caught up on this DP. Off the cuff reads are:


Whiteflame: Town

Pie: Town

Ragnar: Null

Casey: Lean Scum

Supa: Lean Scum

Earth: Scum


I think Pie's arguments for Shining/Earth make a lot of sense. The Lens of Truth makes sense as a rolecop or a cop, less sense as tracker or watcher or something along those lines. It also seems bizarre to have a tracker and a 1x delayed tracker in the same game. Also seems bizarre to have a PGO and a Beloved Princess - seems absurdly swingy. I'm also less convinced by his results on me. I said something in DP2 iirc that I now trust pie and that he's my top townread so I disclosed my role to him. Earth could have easily surmised from that post that I had an investigative role and had used it on Pie DP1 - plus I think that investigating your mason partner if you have an investigative role is kind of a no-brainer. If Earth did rolecop me DP2 it would be even less of a huge stretch once he knew that I was a tracker to claim that he saw me visit Pie DP1.

RexFavilla

I've been up working late and need to get up early, but I should be able to post more tomorrow afternoon. I am the tracker. NP1 I tracked Pie and he didn't move. NP2 I tracked Earth to myself. NP3 I tracked Mharman to myself. My game is Duckhunt, sort of obvious role justification.

RexFavilla

Have you ever heard of hyperbole? I said that precisely because it's absurd because I'm THAT sure you're scum, because I know I'm town, I'm like 98% sure Pie is town, and nobody hopped on your wagon for days with only us two on it after you claimed that if your lynched it will give scum a free extra NK. Instead, there have been multiple attempts to derail the lynch. This is not a mislynch wagon. This does not have mislynch wagon vibes AT ALL.


RexFavilla

So Pie and I are the scum team? We picked one another for Mason buddies? And Pie is a popular mafioso? That's a pretty hard sell imo. We're the ones who have been pushing this lynch from the beginning of the DP, before you even claimed.

RexFavilla

Just have Casey claim to Pie and have him confirm it. What if she's Doc or Cop? Why on earth would you want a public claim when we can use the Mason PMs?

RexFavilla
IF RT IS TOWN, WE LOSE THE GSME ON THE SPOT.

I don't think that's necessarily true.


IF YOU HAVEN’T FULLCLAIMED TO YOUR MASON PARTNER, DO IT NOW PLEASE

PLEASE DO NOT DO THIS. If one scum knows your claim, they all do, and if your partner is scum (one person in the chain is) you are just outing your role to scum. My plan requires you to keep your role to yourself and only pass results down the chain to Whiteflame, which will remain anonymized once they pass the original recipient.


Only do this if you are in a PM with Whiteflame and not anyone else, and have results to pass, as he will know anyway.

RexFavilla

Do we need Casey's claim today? If we do the Whiteflame plan we can keep all the power roles hidden, at least till tomorrow, and still get results.

RexFavilla

Luna said 13 hours at 8:20. That would make DP end at 9:20. You're saying 8 hours now, that would make DP end at midnight. Which is correct?

RexFavilla

I'm so sure he's scum that I don't care if someone POEs us together as long as we lynch him today. I just want you to ask yourself: he has been the main lynch target ALL DAY. According to him, he has a role where lynching him gives scum an extra NP. If he is town, scum knows that this is true. If he is town, why is scum not trying HARD to lynch him? Do you think Pie and I are both the scum team? And that we're in a mason PM together? That's the ONLY way this makes sense. So I don't understand why NOBODY will vote him with a few hours left in the DP. Some of y'all are town, supposedly. Please. Make the case why he isn't scum if your vote isn't on him.

RexFavilla
RT and Rex, so ideally one of them should be the choice today imo.


I'm fine with that. Vote RT. If he's town, then lynch me next DP.

RexFavilla
Mason PMs for reference. Was thinking about a way to possibly pass role results to Whiteflame through mason PMS this NP so that he can report them in anonymized fashion. This would give mafia limited info on power roles and their location - information which would reveal them if they acted on it as their position in the chain would give them out. For example, if Earth is the cop and he is suddenly NKd we will FOS Whiteflame, as he is the one who would know. If Casey were the cop and he was NKd then Ragnar would be under suspicion, as Whiteflame would know that cop was among Ragnar, Casey, Pie, and I. Pie and I would have no idea, and Ragnar would know that cop was between me and Casey. If anyone messes with the info in transit it should be easy to find out who they are. If Whiteflame lies in his report the person could call him out on it. This way we could get and analyze results without actually outing any power roles to all players.



I think we should do this after we get back results tonight. First thing after the NP ends, wait for anonymized results from those further down the chain. Once you have them, add them and pass them towards WF. Then WF can post all the results in an anonymized tracker.


So lets assume, absurdly, that everyone is a cop. Here's how it would work:


Ref to Pie: I investigated Ragnar and found him guilty.



Pie to Casey, if Pie investigated Supa, once he receives REF's message:


Cop results:

Ragnar, Guilty

Supa, Innocent


Casey to Ragnar, if Casey investigated Earth, once he(she? not sure) receives Pie's message:

Ragnar, Guilty

Supa, Innocent

Earth, Innocent


Then Ragnar adds his own results and forwards them to Whiteflame. The three other people in PMs can also send their results to Whiteflame. Then, in the beginning of next DP, Whiteflame posts all the results anonymized. So, dropping the 'everyone is a cop assumption', it would look like this:


Cop: Supa innocent.

Tracker: REF visited Ragnar

Watcher: Ragnar was visited by REF


If an investigative role's results would out another power role Whiteflame should redact that info at his discretion. If the person whose result was redacted thinks that fuckery is going on, they should claim and call it out. If any results are incorrect, we can use PoE to figure out who meddled with them.


You should also forward along your NP1 results as well.

RexFavilla
Does anyone aside from RT have a reason for pushing Rex at this point? And if we don’t have one, what aside from the potential that he is the Beloved Princess is holding everyone back from pursuing the RT lynch?


The fact that PIe and I are the only ones on the wagon just makes me scum read him all the more. He's the top lynch target, if he was town lynching him would gain scum another free NP. If he were town, scum would know that he was town. They could push his lynch and then ML me and pie for throwing the game by giving scum and extra NP. So where are the scum on this wagon?



RexFavilla

Current Game:

 

Mikal - Open DM Concept- You Choose

 

Sign-ups:

 

None

 

In the Hopper:


Casey Risk - Deltarune Mafia 

iLikePie5 

Savant 

Lunatic

AnonymousIcon

RationalTheist 

REF - Suikoden Mafia

 

On Hold:

 

Wylted - Lulsec


RexFavilla
im going to analyze this post more when I get home but holy crap this is one of the scummiest posts I think I’ve ever read. Let’s break this down.

OMGUS


I didn’t vote for him in case he was town - This reeks of a wolf who was trying not to be on the lynch wagon

WIFOM


DP1 is a clusterfuck - this is literally trying to minimize the day 1 value.

What 'value'? This is a bog-standard assessment of the 'value' of DP1. Obvious scumslips are rare, mislynches are common.


I’m gonna focus my attention on Rex when I get home

You're starting to flail a bit. Worried?

RexFavilla
#158 is very towny. I don't agree with the section about Icon because he had the chance to fight the Icon lynch more, but the other things show good effort... for only one post


My stance on DP1 is that it's always a clusterfuck, you generate activity, shoot in the dark, hope you hit scum but know that you probably won't. Then you reanalyze DP1 in light of the flip(s) and start to scumhunt in earnest. Icon looked like he was going to be the lynch regardless and I didn't see a better option. It was more of a joke to say that he was just acting retarded - acting retarded is still a good way to get yourself killed DP1, and even if he was town he obviously wasn't going to be much use for the rest of the game. Main reason that I didn't vote him is because in the even that he was town scum would probably be on that wagon since it was such an 'understandable' mislynch and I didn't want to deprive one scum player of the opportunity to hop on by doing so myself. The only better option would be to hit scum DP1, which usually isn't on the menu.

RexFavilla


Mason PMs for reference. Was thinking about a way to possibly pass role results to Whiteflame through mason PMS this NP so that he can report them in anonymized fashion. This would give mafia limited info on power roles and their location - information which would reveal them if they acted on it as their position in the chain would give them out. For example, if Earth is the cop and he is suddenly NKd we will FOS Whiteflame, as he is the one who would know. If Casey were the cop and he was NKd then Ragnar would be under suspicion, as Whiteflame would know that cop was among Ragnar, Casey, Pie, and I. Pie and I would have no idea, and Ragnar would know that cop was between me and Casey. If anyone messes with the info in transit it should be easy to find out who they are. If Whiteflame lies in his report the person could call him out on it. This way we could get and analyze results without actually outing any power roles to all players.

RexFavilla

Also, if RT was town and telling the truth about his role, wouldn't scum know this and be pushing hard for his lynch, seeing how suspicious his behavior was and how good a mislynch with that role would be for them mechanic-wise? Instead, it feels much more like inertia is being put out there, like the lynch is being bogged down and they're trying to wait out the clock. I feel like if this was a mislynch wagon the whole vibe would be different. It would feel like last DP - a sudden rush to judgement and a super quick wagon followed by an early lynch.

RexFavilla
Theist - Everything about him just sounds scummy to me. Whether it be ending the DP early based on Lunatic (he still hasn’t explained why he townread Lunatic)

I just realized this was a possible scumslip. Why lynch on Luna's command at the end of DP1 when you had pretty much no idea if he was scum or town at that point? This claim makes a little bit of sense in retrospect because we all knew Luna was town because of the flip, so it can slip past you - 'oh, a town player told you to do it, that makes sense'. I certainly didn't trust Pie 100% at the end of DP1 and I wouldn't have hammered someone on his command. It makes most sense to do this as scum as you know Luna's affiliation and know that he's going to be dead next DP, so his 'approval' of a scummy action will look good to town in retrospect. He said this the instant he hammered too.

RexFavilla

I'm hesitant about the mason PM analysis. Scum had to know people would analyze it, so standard wifom applies. I also fail to see why they would each choose a town player - for example, if I had a green or incompetent scum player on my team I would insist that they choose another scum player both to avoid them slipping in their PM and to throw off just this sort of meta analysis.


Overall the mechanic changes the game in a lot of ways.


Anyway, I'd like to hear more from Shining. I'm convinced that one or probably two scum were on Icon's lynch, which was rushed through with RT delivering the hammer. Pie is town imo, Luna is dead, so that leaves Ragnar, Casey, Mharm, and RT. It was a golden opportunity for scum -a mislynch target who was behaving like a retard. The lynch was slammed close ASAP to avoid Icon doing anything to clear himself. RT is obviously my top choice. I'm not very good at reading Mharm having never played with him before, but his play seems kind of all over the place.


Rereading DP1, here are the masons:


  1. Vader - None
  2. Mag1c - Whiteflame 
  3. Casey - Ragnar
  4. RT - Lunatic
  5. Whiteflame - Vader
  6. REF - Pie
  7. Shining - Whiteflame
  8. Ragnar - Whiteflame
  9. Pie - Casey


Here are the people who were all chattering about an early hammer:


Whiteflame

RT (who delivered it)

Luna (unconfirmed, attested by RT)

Ragnar


What I want to know from Whiteflame is if Lunatic mentioned anything about an early hammer in his PM with you? Did Ragnar push/argue for an early lynch in his PM for you? That last question also applies to Casey.


Also, is Ragnar normally so affable when playing?

RexFavilla
ir reading RT’s claim wrong. He corrected it


I know, I was responding to people who were confused by my initial response before he corrected it.

RexFavilla
I get that RT's claim is sus. I understand sussing it. My confusion is with the statement that we should lynch him before scum had a chance to NK him. Even with the original writing of the role, if we had some other reason to townread him (just to be clear, I don't see one right now), I think the notion that it's functionally the same for town to sacrifice a lynch to achieve the same effect as scum using an NK for the same effect doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

It makes sense because I think he's lying and scum. If his argument is that we shouldn't lynch him because we will lose a DP, my counterargument is that any competent scum team would kill him this night, and we'd lose a DP anyway. It's a damned if you do, damned if you don't situation. Plus, it seemed like the kind of scum play where you might try to convince the doc to protect you, as no other power roles are claimed right now and RT would be the obvious NK target if the doc thinks he's town.