Thoth

It's no secret that I am not a sportsball fan, but one sports news story that did reach me was the Washington Redskins becoming the Washington Commanders. I don't want to derail discussion into the Redskins controversy, but Commanders is a great name for a team.

Thoth

A boy was at a family court hearing because his parents beat him. The judge wanted to award custody of the boy to his grandmother, but the boy said, no, my grandmother also beats me. Then the judge suggested that custody should go to the boy's aunt, but the boy said that his aunt beats him too. The judge then made the unprecedented decision to let the boy choose who would receive custody of him. The boy chose the Chicago Bears because they are not capable of beating anyone.

Thoth

I wanted to roleblock Wryly on night 2 to "confirm" that Strengthener fit the setup, so we could go into day 3 having pocketed her. Pie overruled me while I was asleep.

Thoth

Barry Mafia - DP3

Thoth · 9 months ago

VTL Rex


I guess there's a world where I'm wrong, but frankly, if you don't think it's Rex at this point, you haven't been reading. He's flinging balls of shit like a chimpanzee at town's leader after having contributed nothing in days 1 or 2. If you think Rex is too cautious to kill someone whom he neighborized, I have a bridge to cautiously sell you.


The line from Rex that stands out to me, above all others, is this gem from post #60:

He's claiming that I opened a private chat with a town player, something that's completely against my risk-averse scum playstyle and which I would never do.

Completely against logic. What was the alternative? Waiving? You already had a private chat with your scummate, probably Vader. It would be completely against your risk-averse scum playstyle to neighborize anyone other than the person you thought had TMI'd a powerful investigative role. Keep your friends close and your enemies closer, as they say.

Thoth

Barry Mafia - DP3

Thoth · 9 months ago

Rex's arguments all boil down to Pie having led town off a cliff. You know what? If Pie led us off a cliff, we deserve to lose for letting him do it. We all need to stop kowtowing to Pie's strong verbiage every game. Saying something abrasively does not make you right.

Thoth

Barry Mafia - DP3

Thoth · 9 months ago

”Pie guiding the discussion.” Lmfao where the fuck were you? You could’ve just as easily participated, but you were in the shadows pretty much the entire time until you have to leave your hole today.

In the world where you are scum, Rex has a valid point about conversation pruning. The fact that Rex was not around has nothing to do with you guiding the conversation. This comes off as deflection.

Thoth

Barry Mafia - DP3

Thoth · 9 months ago

Thoth is also convienantly forgetting about No Ho Hank’s betrayal

He did not forget about it. He just ain't that big of a Barry loremonger.

Thoth

Barry Mafia - DP3

Thoth · 9 months ago

When every single lynch goes disastrously for town, it is because a competent scum player is driving them.

Bullshit. Bullshit bullshit bullshit. Town can and often does engage in autophagy. Never interrupt your opponent while they are making a mistake.

Thoth

Barry Mafia - DP3

Thoth · 9 months ago

Rex, do you not realize that I have until the end of the day phase to cast my vote? Leaning a certain way at one moment does not mean I should go alea-iacta-est. If I were 98% sure that you were scum, why give scum the 2% chance to quickhammer, rather than waiting out the day phase in case somebody brings up something that changes my view? Fools rush in where angels fear to VTL. Plus, if I were scum, voting for you would come off as a transparent attempt to bait a townie into following my lead so my scummate could quickhammer you.

Thoth

Barry Mafia - DP3

Thoth · 9 months ago

I think that's decent evidence for Ceru being town. If Ceru were scum carrying the NK, Wryly would have no way to tell the difference between Ceru doing the kill and Ceru being Gravedigger. If Ceru were town, Wryly could see Ceru and a scum visiting the NK target.

Thoth

Barry Mafia - DP3

Thoth · 9 months ago

Like what is the claim here? That I as scum have a role that lets me open a chat with a townie as scum, I used it on wryly, who was convinced I was town and suspicious of my supposed mislynch target, and then I killed her?

There is one reason that comes to mind for why you would have killed Wryly if you were a scum Neighborizer: she told you that she was a Tracker/Watcher, and you were afraid that she would see something you didn't want her to.

Thoth

Barry Mafia - DP3

Thoth · 9 months ago

I also have to say that Rex's unexplained vote on Vader yesterday (post #116) feels like a ploy for towncred, knowing that there was no reason to expect Vader to be lynched.

Thoth

Barry Mafia - DP3

Thoth · 9 months ago

Wryly asked in day 2, post #241 whether or not my Strengthener is X-shot. It's unlimited-use.

Thoth

Barry Mafia - DP3

Thoth · 9 months ago

I'm reasonably confident that it's Rex/Vader, but it could be Rex/Ceru. I'm having a hard time seeing Rex and Pie's arguing as some 2000-IQ bus-fleet strategy. I don't consider Pie 100% clear, but very close to it. I'm also not completely convinced that Ceru did not use scum's questions to ask about Gravedigger and claim it immediately. Pie is right that we are too quick to believe SOP-claimed roles. Why? Because claiming one immediately is a huge risk? But that is why somebody might do it.


Theme analysis points to Rex/Vader. Their characters are canonical lovers, and yesterday I speculated that the scum team might be NoHo Hank / Cristobal. Vanilla strikes me as a conservative fake-claim, and I think it's interesting that Rex is saying all these things about his supposed neighborhood chat with Wryly after she died. If Rex is a scum Neighborizer, that explains the choice of night-kill: Rex could have said something in there that he did not want a living townie to know, or he wanted to lie about what was said there.


If anyone is interested, I strengthened Wryly last night. No need to tell me that it sounds scummy to say I targeted someone who is not around to confirm, especially after accusing Rex of the same thing.

Thoth

Barry Mafia - DP3

Thoth · 9 months ago

Like what is the claim here? That I as scum have a role that lets me open a chat with a townie as scum, I used it on wryly, who was convinced I was town and suspicious of my supposed mislynch target, and then I killed her?

Considering that I did something similar on a Discord game once: yes, yes that is the claim.

Thoth

Barry Mafia - DP3

Thoth · 9 months ago

In fact, that would be good for town as it would cause scum to waste the role on you as long as you didn't use it, allowing investigative and protective roles to go off without being manipulated (well, if you hadn't lynched/nked them all)

(Post #26) You are assuming that a Redirector does not force their target to use an ability they waived. How would you know that WF runs Redirector like that? Did you ask?

Thoth

Barry Mafia - DP3

Thoth · 9 months ago

In Pie's Ranger's Apprentice game, Mag1c and I asked if we could redirect a Hider. Pie dismissed it with prejudice. I'm somewhat townreading the implicit claim that his Hider, if real, works differently. I suppose it's possible that WF would hypothetically run it differently and Scum!Pie asked how it would work.

Thoth

Barry Mafia - DP2

Thoth · 9 months ago

Certainly, the best arguments in favor of Shining are 1) no one else has claimed a protective role and 2) his role + your Strengthener is the current best explanation for Luna's information.

1) isn't that strong of an argument because a protective role would probably want to avoid claiming since they would be a prime NK target. 2) could have a different explanation. I think the interaction between my role and Jailkeeper does fit, as does the Gravedigger/Ninja theory, but neither fit the lock very snugly, if you ask me. At this point, I'm 50:50 between Luna's information being either one of those two theories or something that is not public knowledge yet.


The arguments against him are a) he hammered Kohai, b) Jailkeeper from Jim Moss is iffy, c) Jailkeeper is a great cover for a scum RB, d) your role does support the existence of a scum RB, e) Jim Moss sticks out as the only character not in season 1, f) scum could have used their questions to make sure Jailkeeper was a safe claim, g) there could easily be an alternate explanation for Luna's clue with two players (besides me) unclaimed

The more I think about it, the less I see a) as an argument. We needed to lynch someone, if only because we were on odds, and that was the wagon he could drop the hammer on. If he did not strongly townread Kohai, he was better off ensuring a hammer-drop than going against the flow.


With c), I'm curious if anyone else wants to claim some sort of roleblocker. If we got two roleblocker claims, even if they were different sorts of RBer, I would bet a nickel that there would be exactly one scum between them. As for b), I don't think a Jailkeeper precludes a scum RB.


Regarding e), I'm sorry if I'm forgetting, but has whiteflame said whether or not this game is based only on any specific part of the show?


f) and g), yup, there's no arguing with those.

Thoth

Barry Mafia - DP2

Thoth · 9 months ago

You know, I am sick of having the justification conversation every game. Its utterly meaningless most times.

Are you saying that it is... unjustified?

Thoth

Barry Mafia - DP2

Thoth · 9 months ago

Could that really be what's meant by "someone’s role is a greater nuisance than they know"? Eh.

I actually think this makes more sense than it referring to Gravedigger. Gravedigger already knows that they are a significant nuisance.

Thoth

Barry Mafia - DP2

Thoth · 9 months ago

whiteflame saying he'd like 9 players but he could "make it work" with 8 is something I keep agonizing over

I hope this does not come across as OGI or badly sourced modpsyche, but the main difference between my 7- and 8-player setups for Madoka Magica was your role.

Thoth

Barry Mafia - DP2

Thoth · 9 months ago

VTL Shining


I think this is the most likely place to find scum, and, while I would like to pay off my inactivity debt by being around close to end-of-day, I likely won't be. Alea iacta est. Y'all can decide whether or not to finish the job.