Thoth

Wait so which power did Thoth use on me to block my protection of Rex?

You Doctored Rex and I killed you, then Bus Driver sent the kill to Rex and your Doctor to yourself. I was surprised that Bus Driver redirected night kills too. That play was Magic's idea. I think it might have been better to Redirect you to Lunatic because that Bus Driver play would have failed if you had self-doctored.

Some were more reasonable than others, but that’s usually by design. As always, I hope everyone had fun, and any constructive criticism is appreciated.

Yeah. Constructive. Like calling my arguments garbage. Unless you just meant they were false.

Scum chat this game was not idyllic. We rarely agreed about what to do and strong words were exchanged, but, as Pie told me, better argumentative than inactive. I could not have done it without Magic. In particular, during day 2 after Casey's role flipped, I wanted to claim Will Treaty as a modified Cop that checks whether or not a player is from Araluen, and he caught that this would have exposed me as lying or scum straight-claiming because Will is from Redmont Fief and Casey saw there was one, presumably meaning only one, town-aligned player from Redmont. Oopsie.

I brought up gender soft-claiming day 1 because I figured that, with Evanlyn claimed, it could save us a question and identify characters since one female would probably be Alyss Mainwaring and two would almost certainly be Alyss and Madelyn Altman. I was surprised that nobody called me on this given the low female:male ratio of important characters in this series.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wj2eix1bYrc

I suggested that Wryly redirected Magic to himself for some bizarre reason, but I suppose there is a non-negligible chance that Magic never visited himself and Wryly has an ability that can feed townies false information. I doubt it, but I guess it's possible.

It also just occurred me to that Wryly's justification is probably the cleanest of any role that has flipped or been claimed so far, even considering that I just said that I am Gilan, Tracker and nobody questioned it or asked for a paraphrase from my mod PM. As Wryly said herself (Day 2, Post 73), claiming her character practically claims her role. That strikes me as symptomatic of a fake-claim, although, in fairness, either you or Magic probably could have concocted a less straightforward but still believable fake-claim and justification. Also, it seems to me that Malcolm is, while not exactly a minor character, less important than many or most characters that have flipped, which makes me think that you exhausted at least one of your questions about who was in the game before you settled on Malcolm.

Tagging you in hopes that it will increase the probability that you see my latest post before voting.

If you're town, why did you read Magic visiting himself?

I don't know. I'm guessing that you redirected him for some godforsaken reason I can't begin to guess at.

If I'm Magic's scummate, I certainly wouldn't have tried to redirect him.

"Certainty" is a strong word given that your role hasn't flipped and there is no indisputable evidence of a Doctor since every night has had a night-kill, notwithstanding the Strongman. You could say that Strongman being in the role setup is proof of some protective role, but we had a Hider, and Pie confirmed to me that a Strongman would kill a Hider (no, that's not a scumslip, I asked him after Magic's role flipped) if targeted at them, plus I don't know whether or not Doctor would have saved Rex if he role-blocked scum. Again, I don't know why Magic visited himself, but I think you do.

Also it means you're a 3x tracker and idk why Pie would do that when everyone else's powers were 1x or 2x

False. Mikal and RT both had unlimited uses, and Casey's ability was passive.

If Magic had carried out the NK on Mikal, you would have tracked him visiting Mikal that night. But you didn't, you tracked him visiting himself. That means he would've had to use his 1x Strongman power NP1, when it made the least sense to.

NP1? You mean the NP1 when you supposedly waived your Doctor ability, so there was an excuse for a townie dying despite the presence of a Doctor? Not to suggest that I knew beyond a shadow of a doubt that whiteflame was town.

Also it would mean Magic advised me to claim doctor and then say I protected him, my scummate, which would be stupid

"Stupid" is another strong word, but it would befit a noob, so, yes, it's plausible that he told you to do this to farm noob cred.

Also wouldn't Magic have advised me not to jump on the Mikal wagon and stay low profile instead, like you did

That's a creative way of spinning the fact that you were on that wagon and I was not. Again, not to say that I knew for a fact that Mikal was scum.

Also why VTL me last DP instead of trying to turn the suspicion up on you

Only if by "instead of" you mean in addition to.

Would you care to explain why Halt has flipped scum and Will Treaty is in a "mentor/student relationship which develops into more of a father/son relationship" with Halt? Source. You're not really telling me you missed that, are you?

If Halt is scum what the hell is the theme split.

For that matter, you could have pushed me as scum straight-claiming, since Gilan was Halt's apprentice, and the fact that you did not shows me that you were afraid to bring up connections between Halt and any other characters.

You are right that Luna must be innocent because he didn’t instahammer. I’m tired and not thinking that clearly. I’ll vote you now and leave it to Luna to decide when and where to drop the hammer. If I’m stalling, well, yeah, I’d like if Luna could at least give me a couple hours to take a nap and come back when I’m refreshed.

VTL Wryly

I’m beginning to suspect that the split is Halt / Will Treaty and Wryly is Will. That does seem to go against Casey’s role mentioning Will as the source of her information, but, then again, her card says there is one town-aligned player from Redmont Fief, not only one player period, and it does specify information “from the inside”. Apparently, Will Treaty is like a son to Halt. This doesn’t reflect that well on me either since Halt mentored Gilan, but there are a lot of characters linked to Halt in some way, and Will seems the most tightly linked.

Watch Wryly claim she visited me or Luna and she just caught me lying about being Tracker.

Lunatic is probably town because, as Wryly pointed out yesterday (Post #123), Rex would have died from visiting Luna if he were scum, although I can’t rule out redirection, though. With that in mind, the game probably comes down to which one of us Luna thinks is scum, although I’ll withhold my vote for now on the off chance it’s Luna.

I tracked Wryly last night and saw her visit Rex.

Wryly might have claimed to have waived NP1 to explain why a Strongman kill was not blocked. Re:Luna, yes, mafia had a Strongman, see Magic’s role flip.

It ain't over 'til the fat lady sings.

Ah, well, the day phase is technically over so I guess I should have refreshed the thread before posting anything.

I think its mharm and wryly. A hider shouldn't been seen visiting themselves if you actually tracked him. I've literally never seen this mirror maker role used EVER in any game.

Is Pie known for using rare or custom roles? If he is, then Magic's claim goes from extremely unbelievable to merely very unbelievable.

If it was me and Rex I wouldn't have VTL'd him DP1. Also why would Rex confirm Luna as town, that turns up the heat on me.

I bet you could find an example where every pair of living players, not just the ones on PoE, have done something uncoordinated or antagonistic. After you voted for Rex DP1, he still had two votes to go, and let's not forget that you eagerly swapped to Casey. I can imagine scum doing that for, "definitely not the same team", credit later, although it's not a risk I would be willing to take and Rex supposedly is not known for playing that incautiously. But, yeah, Lunatic might be right that it's you and Magic.

I will be willing to vote Magic once I believe I fully understand his claim. I will need to re-read it a few more times, and maybe a few more times after that. If I fuck up, then I fucked up.

They aren't supposed to be able to be visited. The downside to that is if the person they hide behind is killed, they also die. I am guessing mirror maker is the only role he could research to justify your result.

I'm not sure this is applicable to Magic's claim, but a Hider could still be redirected by abilities that don't visit them, e.g., a Bus Driver on the person they hid behind and somebody else.

I could possibly be persuaded to change my mind if I understood what in the blue fuck Magic is claiming, particularly the Magic Mirror Maker part. The failure to communicate is probably more on my end than his.

I think it's Rex and Wryly. I hope the discussion has advanced by the time I get back tomorrow.

I hope we get Gen Z Slang. It will be the first game in history where scum can unalive their teammates by bussin.

In

I vote for Gen Z Slang

but when I’m not scared of lynching my top scumread because I might have to deal with a garbage role later on, it’s horrible and scummy, because I should have… not lynched my top scumread on the belief that he’s just lying about his role??

(Post #117) This came after I started writing my responses to the previous posts. I see your logic here, for sure, but, as Rex pointed out in post #93, scumreads from day 1 are unreliable short of the most egregious scumslip.

I've played quite a few Mafia games, mainly under the name Werewolf, but this kind of in-depth endgame analysis is new to me. I'm saying that because I'm enjoying it for the first time, not to play the noob card, and despite enjoying it, I am in the unenviable position of scumreading everyone.

I'm sure I will think of more to say later, but for now I will dump the thoughts I've had while catching up with day chat.

I was gonna make a joke about it but I was like nah theyre too in the game to want jokes in the mafia thread

(Post #61) That's exactly why we need them!

I asked Pie this but ofc he couldn't answer. Does the dreamer only get one vision?

(Post #63) From what I've found, whether or not Dreamer is one-use varies by game-master. Perhaps more importantly, and not to patronize you if you already knew this, Dreamers can't get a Dream on nights when they are visited.

[Magic's claim in post #68]

I don't know whether I buy it or not. I can't point out any flaws in your logic, if only because I don't fully understand it, and your justification makes sense, but this feels concocted after-the-fact because of how complicated it is and how long it took you to post it. I may be wrong due to lack of experience with setups on here, but I do at least see the logic of Universal Backup in a game which, if we believe all other claims, has only one real protective (Wryly) and investigative (me) role, although Rex and Lunatic's claimed roles partially fill those gaps.

The only thing odd to me is how Thoth won't vote Wryly now, but was oh so willing to believe Lunatic last phase, even voting Wryly.

(Post #68) Ignoring the fact that I cast doubt on the Dreamer (post #129 from yesterday), suggested that Lunatic and Rex could be a scum team (#143), and swapped to Casey before ultimately not voting.

If Thoth is telling the truth, then the only role that could've possibly redirected me to myself is a Mirror Maker placed on Whiteflame

Hiders can't be redirected in any other way?

I'm mildly ashamed to admit it, but I don't understand the Mirror Maker thing.

I don't see a situation where they kill RT over you given the information that a scum team like taht would be acting upon.

(Post #71) Regardless of who scum are, they could have been banking on discrediting Magic by letting him live in hopes that the information would not be self-proving.

What are your thoughts on the possibility of a Wryly/Mharman scum team?

Look at the game with that in mind. It's interesting to me that DP1 Mharman lead the Mikal lynch and that Mikal basically taught Wryly how to play mafia. If I were Mharman with a partner who was 100% green newb scum with their hydra partner from their first game I would want him gone ASAP. Makes Mharman's hardon for Mikal make a lot more sense.

(Post #88) If the facts here are true, I agree with the analysis. I still need to go back and look at the whole game with everything in mind, and I will try to finish that tonight.

Not Luna, because if Luna were a fake dreamer he wouldn't put Thoth in POE.

(Post #89) Not to imply that Luna or I are scum, but rumor has reached me (before this game started) that Lunatic is notorious for taking ridiculous risks like this, hence why I have been moderately skeptical of him being the Dreamer.

Wait a minute, if you knew this was your role why on earth would you lead a lynch DP1 on a person who policy claimed an extremely anti-town role? There's a good chance of mislynching, and you would be stuck with that same shitty role in that case.

(Post #90) I've been writing this as I read through the thread. Scratch whatever I said about having any reason to believe Magic.

Re: Post #96. Surely you understood that those five teams had not yet been eliminated because nobody except Pie had posted since the most recent vote. They might not have been around to drop the hammer.

If it was Rex and Luna, Thoth wouldn't have tracked Rex visiting Luna. Why would scum visit scum. Is that a thing?

(Post #109) I can't think of any specific roles that fit with Rex visiting Luna when both are scum, but I was suspicious during day 2, and still am, that I saw Magic self-apply some scum ability.

If it was Thoth and Luna, Thoth wouldn't have shown up in Luna's fake POE dream. Why POE a scummate.

(Post #109) Again, not to suggest that Luna and I are scum, but see above.

So you didn't know that Luna was a 1x Dreamer, meaning he wouldn't be aware of being roleblocked at all and this tactic was for naught.

(Post #110) Are you speaking hypothetically, or did Lunatic claim 1x Dreamer?

If it was Magic and Thoth I wonder what the theme split is. There's nothing apparently in common with Erak Starfollower and Gilan.

(Post #111) Scum could be lying about their characters whether they are Magic and I or not. If I correctly understand that "theme split" means that the scum characters are canonically linked, the only pair that I see fitting that criterion is Morgarath (Lunatic) and Wargals (Rex), which means that at least one of the following is true: Lunatic and Rex are scum; at least one player is lying about their character; there are characters linked in a way I missed, not being a full-blown lore lord. Luna/Rex being scum seems impossible given that they would have hammered Wryly.

If the person carrying out the night kill is roleblocked it also stops the NK.

(Post #112) I did not know this. Your action last night seems less suicidal now that I do.

If it was rex and me, and you were town why haven't joined mharman and hammered you already for the win?

If it's Rex and thoth why haven't they hammered you already?

(Post #114) For once, logic that I absolutely, unironically cannot fault, as much as I don't like the Morgarath/Wargals connection.

If Rex is scum this was very well played, but I think the common demoninator here is magic. Thoth and wryly will continue to be a conflicting issue, but I am leaning hardest towards lynching magic now.

(Post #116) I agree that Magic is the common denominator. The lack of a hammer has narrowed scum to Magic/anyone or Rex/Wryly. I will abstain from voting for now on the off chance that it's Rex/Wryly.

Lunatic: Did you get a message last night about being unable to use your Dreamer ability? If so, did it specifically say that you were role-blocked? If not, do you think it was different from the message that you would have gotten if you had been visited by a non-role-blocking ability?

Anyone who wishes to do your master will likely be stopped before because of your ability to detect danger.

I think Pie meant to put the word “harm” after “master” in this sentence from RT’s role card, and its absence gives the sentence a very different meaning.

If Thoth is town and he believes the dreamer results enough to be pissed at me blocking them wouldn't Wryly be 100% scum to him? Yet he claims that I am 100% scum. I think that's a scumslip.

Could it be that there is more than one scum left? I am undecided about whether or not I trust the Dreamer results, but my point was that using your ability last night does not fit with what you would sensibly have done as a townie, regardless of whether you trust Lunatic or not, so you are likely scum. Then again, I don’t know why you would have revealed your action as scum. Maybe you forgot that I was a Tracker, then remembered this after submitting your night action and wanted to inform town of your visit before I did.

So I feel like if he were scum and creating this false POE my targeting him would stop the NK and kill me, allowing me to be tracked to him if Thoth and Wryly were town.

Except that nobody would be tracking anyone if you died because the game would be over.

This also would have the intended effect where if Thoth was scum this would throw him for a loop, because I imagine a scum fakeclaiming a tracker would lie about me visiting the NK target to secure their last mislynch.

If I were scum fake-claiming a Tracker, I would have said that I saw Lunatic do it because he should not have been visiting anyone. That, or I would have flipped my claim to 1x Tracker 1x Watcher and said I watched someone visit RT.

I also find the decision to track me from a town perspective perplexing. The only other person in dreamer POE has claimed an active role. Wouldn't you track them to get to the bottom of what they are doing and catch them in a lie if you are town and in dreamer POE?

I wanted a play that could be helpful regardless of the unknowns. I figured that you and Lunatic were a strong candidate for the scum team, so that catching you doing something naughty would effectively be two for the price of one, and I did not want to risk blocking Lunatic in case he was a Dreamer. Now I suspect that you are scum, but Lunatic might not be your scummate.

I claimed roleblocker. If I targeted a town player, wouldn't they know I did so by being roleblocked if I was lying as scum?

Lunatic, were you explicitly told that you were roleblocked or just that someone visited you?

If you the doctor, I'd hope it "makes sense to you".

This post really rubs me the wrong way based on its phrasing, sounds like a scum slip lol

(Post #39) All four of you are possible scum to me, but I think Wryly just meant that, from an outsider’s perspective, it makes sense for the setup to have a Doctor since there are no fully protective roles.

When town see results that mystify them, they don't stall and try to figure out how to post about it. They post about it and let town hash it out. They point out what they see. Especiallyat the endgame. The way Thoth was behaving seemed like the was terrified of whatever info Mharman is playing close to his chest somehow tripping up what he says.

I’m terrified that Magic promised to claim yesterday with the offer of winning on the spot today and then you, Wryly, and Lunatic, at least one of whom is not scum, all pressured me to claim while I was making some effort to hold Magic accountable.

The only info which Thoth had to disclose was already revealed by me at the beginning of the DP.

Withholding my information in hopes it would get y’all to pressure Magic might have been the wrong decision, but you having revealed it is why I had no problem withholding it.

Last night, I tracked Rex because I figured that, since visiting anyone would risk dying and putting scum at parity, if he were what he claims to be, he would waive. Sure enough, I saw him visit Lunatic, which is especially incriminating because it denies a Dream that, from the perspective of a hypothetical townie Rex that trusts Lunatic, could confirm me or Wryly as scum if either were in the dream without the other.

However, since Rex shared his action last night before I got to the thread, I have no information to contribute other than confirming that he visited Lunatic. As uncharacteristically egregious of a scumslip as it would be for such a seemingly experienced and capable player, I wonder if he forgot that he could die and put scum and parity, or forgot that he would if he were town.

I still want to see Magic full-claim, but Rex is basically confirmed scum to me. I think it’s Rex and Wryly, and Rex said Lunatic is town-confirmed to get him on his side. (My other playgroup calls that “pocketing”.) It could be Rex and Lunatic.

I will probably be back by noon Central at the latest. I will post what I have by then. I hope Magic does the same.

Knowing there's a 50% chance this is all a "no U first" scum act makes this 2x more irritating

Magic said he would claim today. I am holding him accountable.

I am saying nothing until Magic full-claims.

In the only other game I've played, mafia all had offensive/sabotaging powers. Is this not always the case?

I don't know about this site's meta, but, in the other group I play with, it's common for scum (werewolves) to have defensive abilities, most commonly Tough, which is a one-time protection from any kill, including a lynch. I might be wrong, but I get the sense that lynch protection is unheard of on here.

I still don't know why whiteflame was offed in particular in NP1, still need Magic to claim, and still don't know what the theme split is.

From what I've seen, whiteflame is considered a strong player, so scum might have wanted him dead just because they were afraid of him.

I still don't know what the theme split is either, but Morgarath and Wargal are the only pair so far that make sense to me.

Rex's claim seems solid, but a weak roleblocker still seems weird to me -- what use is it?

Canary in a coal mine.

Who did you target NP1?

RT said in post #7 that he did not target anyone last night.

Check post #4 today.

Honestly, for me it comes down to his stated thought process thinking he had to have been interfered with to have seen a self-visit,

(Post #141) I was thinking of my role PM in Deltarune, where it said that using Bulletproof did not count as an action. I figured that not counting as an action meant that it would not show as a visit, that this is how other self-applied abilities work, and that both of those hypotheses also applied to this game. Later, I realized that these were unwarranted assumptions and asked Pie whether or not a hypothetical self-applied Bulletproof* in this game would show as a visit, and he said that it would. Not that I believe Magic used Bulletproof last night. I still think it's likely that at least one of us was redirected.

*I say self-applied Bulletproof because I'm not sure whether or not Bulletproof on here conventionally refers only to self-applied night kill protections. I'm guessing that it does because otherwise Doctors could be called Bulletproof, which I don't recall seeing.

One more thing before I try, and probably fail, to go to sleep. We know there is a theme split. The only pair of players with claims that I see as clearly themed together is Lunatic and Rex, but people with more lore knowledge than I have might spot something I missed. I want a claim from Magic as soon as possible because, even if he lies, it may get us somewhere towards determining the theme split.

As I've said before, I can 100% imagine Morgarath as Mafia JOAT.

This may be irrelevant to this game, but are Dreamer results random in the sense that any set of players meeting the Dreamer requirements, i.e., at least one town, is equally probable to show up? If not, does the mod choose the names? I asked Pie whether or not he could answer my questions about a hypothetical Dreamer, and he said that he could not.

I started to write that it's interesting how the dream included three people who were generally considered neither solid town nor solid scum by the end of day 1, but that went away after I reread day 1 and saw that the reads that I remembered as being nearly locked one way or the other, i.e., RT as town and Rex as scum, were actually far from unanimous. Ununanimous. If all possible dreams are equally probable, this would have been Bayesian evidence for Lunatic lying, but not enough to sway me towards voting him, and in any case it's a moot point. The first seven words of that last sentence are definitely in some New Age self-help book.

The fact of the matter is that it’s already common knowledge that we should avoid trying to no lynch though, and with you already having the two ticks against you of 1: appearing on my results and 2: convienently being able to town confirm a dead person, it doesn’t flood good that you also not only participated in the only mislynch we had but also encouraged others to vote for anyone consensus no matter how bad it was, to just hit said consensus.

(Post #134) Any of these points by themselves would be too weak to lynch over, but all three together are strong. (Ecclesiastes 4:12) In fairness, the only mislynch we have had is also the only lynch we have had, and more than half of players voted for it.

but also encouraged others to vote for anyone consensus no matter how bad it was, to just hit said consensus.

(Post #134) I hope I am not insulting everyone's intelligence and game knowledge by explaining this, but there was a numerical argument for blindly lynching.

Assuming exactly one death per game phase, which admittedly might have been unjustified with a claimed Compulsive Hider, and that scum were an odd number of players away from reaching parity, a mislynch would not have changed the number of future mislynches required to lose. This is because, during any day, the number of mislynches until parity equals the number of townies, minus the number of scum, divided by 2, rounded up.

For instance, if scum are 2 players away from reaching parity at the start of a day, a mislynch puts them 1 away and then their night-kill attains parity, whereas a no-lynch keeps them 1 away after their night kill. If scum are 3 players away from parity, a no-lynch leaves them 2 away from parity tomorrow, while a lynch leaves them 1 player away, so that a mislynch tomorrow will win for scum either way.

Since we almost certainly have 2 scum out of 9 starting players, on day 1, scum were an odd number of players away from parity.

If you can hear me in the grave, whiteflame, thank you for pointing this out to me in Deltarune.

You could have encouraged a lynch before deadline without also encouraging laziness in the voting effort. that wouldn’t be changing your meta.

(Post #134) Except that there was no need for Casey to encourage laziness, at least not in the way she did, because I had started a wagon on Rex. This makes me mildly more suspicious of Rex, now that I think about it, as surprised as I would be if the scum team is Casey and Rex.

But that is a problem for after we figure out the scum in the dreamer results.

(Post #136) If we get two wrong, there probably won't be an after. I know that I am town, but, if I looked at it from the standpoint of a neutral third-party with no solid reads on myself or Wryly, both might look like the wrong lynch tomorrow because there is likely only one scum in the dream and the wrong choice would instantly lose for town.

another big issue I’m having with Casey is that she doesn’t even seem to be considering a world where the dreamer results are accurate. Like her whole theory is just that I’m doing a Hail Mary double attempt at a. Scum gambit that I’ve already used before, she actually hasn’t considered the results could be true and if she was town I figure she would at least be trying to look into Thoth or wryly as an option here, instead of automatically accepting they are town.

(Post #137) I agree that this is another strong point against Casey.

I mean it has the obvious problem that if all the town had 'good' characters then there would be a pretty wide outcry against people claiming scum characters.

(Post #138) With no flipped scum, Magic unclaimed, and everyone else but you and Lunatic having claimed protagonists, we can't be sure that not all townies have good characters.

and thinking that the risky part of Luna's claim, assuming he's scum, is that he claimed a villain, not that he claimed Dreamer

(Post #141) I can't exactly say that claiming Dreamer is risk-free.

After reading Casey's most recent post, I'm not ready to lynch her yet. She's still at the top of my sus list, but what she said about those previous games with Lunatic and Rex gives me pause. I'll reconsider my vote once there has been more discussion.

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