Thoth

They aren't supposed to be able to be visited. The downside to that is if the person they hide behind is killed, they also die. I am guessing mirror maker is the only role he could research to justify your result.

I'm not sure this is applicable to Magic's claim, but a Hider could still be redirected by abilities that don't visit them, e.g., a Bus Driver on the person they hid behind and somebody else.

I could possibly be persuaded to change my mind if I understood what in the blue fuck Magic is claiming, particularly the Magic Mirror Maker part. The failure to communicate is probably more on my end than his.

I think it's Rex and Wryly. I hope the discussion has advanced by the time I get back tomorrow.

I hope we get Gen Z Slang. It will be the first game in history where scum can unalive their teammates by bussin.

In

I vote for Gen Z Slang

but when I’m not scared of lynching my top scumread because I might have to deal with a garbage role later on, it’s horrible and scummy, because I should have… not lynched my top scumread on the belief that he’s just lying about his role??

(Post #117) This came after I started writing my responses to the previous posts. I see your logic here, for sure, but, as Rex pointed out in post #93, scumreads from day 1 are unreliable short of the most egregious scumslip.

I've played quite a few Mafia games, mainly under the name Werewolf, but this kind of in-depth endgame analysis is new to me. I'm saying that because I'm enjoying it for the first time, not to play the noob card, and despite enjoying it, I am in the unenviable position of scumreading everyone.

I'm sure I will think of more to say later, but for now I will dump the thoughts I've had while catching up with day chat.

I was gonna make a joke about it but I was like nah theyre too in the game to want jokes in the mafia thread

(Post #61) That's exactly why we need them!

I asked Pie this but ofc he couldn't answer. Does the dreamer only get one vision?

(Post #63) From what I've found, whether or not Dreamer is one-use varies by game-master. Perhaps more importantly, and not to patronize you if you already knew this, Dreamers can't get a Dream on nights when they are visited.

[Magic's claim in post #68]

I don't know whether I buy it or not. I can't point out any flaws in your logic, if only because I don't fully understand it, and your justification makes sense, but this feels concocted after-the-fact because of how complicated it is and how long it took you to post it. I may be wrong due to lack of experience with setups on here, but I do at least see the logic of Universal Backup in a game which, if we believe all other claims, has only one real protective (Wryly) and investigative (me) role, although Rex and Lunatic's claimed roles partially fill those gaps.

The only thing odd to me is how Thoth won't vote Wryly now, but was oh so willing to believe Lunatic last phase, even voting Wryly.

(Post #68) Ignoring the fact that I cast doubt on the Dreamer (post #129 from yesterday), suggested that Lunatic and Rex could be a scum team (#143), and swapped to Casey before ultimately not voting.

If Thoth is telling the truth, then the only role that could've possibly redirected me to myself is a Mirror Maker placed on Whiteflame

Hiders can't be redirected in any other way?

I'm mildly ashamed to admit it, but I don't understand the Mirror Maker thing.

I don't see a situation where they kill RT over you given the information that a scum team like taht would be acting upon.

(Post #71) Regardless of who scum are, they could have been banking on discrediting Magic by letting him live in hopes that the information would not be self-proving.

What are your thoughts on the possibility of a Wryly/Mharman scum team?

Look at the game with that in mind. It's interesting to me that DP1 Mharman lead the Mikal lynch and that Mikal basically taught Wryly how to play mafia. If I were Mharman with a partner who was 100% green newb scum with their hydra partner from their first game I would want him gone ASAP. Makes Mharman's hardon for Mikal make a lot more sense.

(Post #88) If the facts here are true, I agree with the analysis. I still need to go back and look at the whole game with everything in mind, and I will try to finish that tonight.

Not Luna, because if Luna were a fake dreamer he wouldn't put Thoth in POE.

(Post #89) Not to imply that Luna or I are scum, but rumor has reached me (before this game started) that Lunatic is notorious for taking ridiculous risks like this, hence why I have been moderately skeptical of him being the Dreamer.

Wait a minute, if you knew this was your role why on earth would you lead a lynch DP1 on a person who policy claimed an extremely anti-town role? There's a good chance of mislynching, and you would be stuck with that same shitty role in that case.

(Post #90) I've been writing this as I read through the thread. Scratch whatever I said about having any reason to believe Magic.

Re: Post #96. Surely you understood that those five teams had not yet been eliminated because nobody except Pie had posted since the most recent vote. They might not have been around to drop the hammer.

If it was Rex and Luna, Thoth wouldn't have tracked Rex visiting Luna. Why would scum visit scum. Is that a thing?

(Post #109) I can't think of any specific roles that fit with Rex visiting Luna when both are scum, but I was suspicious during day 2, and still am, that I saw Magic self-apply some scum ability.

If it was Thoth and Luna, Thoth wouldn't have shown up in Luna's fake POE dream. Why POE a scummate.

(Post #109) Again, not to suggest that Luna and I are scum, but see above.

So you didn't know that Luna was a 1x Dreamer, meaning he wouldn't be aware of being roleblocked at all and this tactic was for naught.

(Post #110) Are you speaking hypothetically, or did Lunatic claim 1x Dreamer?

If it was Magic and Thoth I wonder what the theme split is. There's nothing apparently in common with Erak Starfollower and Gilan.

(Post #111) Scum could be lying about their characters whether they are Magic and I or not. If I correctly understand that "theme split" means that the scum characters are canonically linked, the only pair that I see fitting that criterion is Morgarath (Lunatic) and Wargals (Rex), which means that at least one of the following is true: Lunatic and Rex are scum; at least one player is lying about their character; there are characters linked in a way I missed, not being a full-blown lore lord. Luna/Rex being scum seems impossible given that they would have hammered Wryly.

If the person carrying out the night kill is roleblocked it also stops the NK.

(Post #112) I did not know this. Your action last night seems less suicidal now that I do.

If it was rex and me, and you were town why haven't joined mharman and hammered you already for the win?

If it's Rex and thoth why haven't they hammered you already?

(Post #114) For once, logic that I absolutely, unironically cannot fault, as much as I don't like the Morgarath/Wargals connection.

If Rex is scum this was very well played, but I think the common demoninator here is magic. Thoth and wryly will continue to be a conflicting issue, but I am leaning hardest towards lynching magic now.

(Post #116) I agree that Magic is the common denominator. The lack of a hammer has narrowed scum to Magic/anyone or Rex/Wryly. I will abstain from voting for now on the off chance that it's Rex/Wryly.

Lunatic: Did you get a message last night about being unable to use your Dreamer ability? If so, did it specifically say that you were role-blocked? If not, do you think it was different from the message that you would have gotten if you had been visited by a non-role-blocking ability?

Anyone who wishes to do your master will likely be stopped before because of your ability to detect danger.

I think Pie meant to put the word “harm” after “master” in this sentence from RT’s role card, and its absence gives the sentence a very different meaning.

If Thoth is town and he believes the dreamer results enough to be pissed at me blocking them wouldn't Wryly be 100% scum to him? Yet he claims that I am 100% scum. I think that's a scumslip.

Could it be that there is more than one scum left? I am undecided about whether or not I trust the Dreamer results, but my point was that using your ability last night does not fit with what you would sensibly have done as a townie, regardless of whether you trust Lunatic or not, so you are likely scum. Then again, I don’t know why you would have revealed your action as scum. Maybe you forgot that I was a Tracker, then remembered this after submitting your night action and wanted to inform town of your visit before I did.

So I feel like if he were scum and creating this false POE my targeting him would stop the NK and kill me, allowing me to be tracked to him if Thoth and Wryly were town.

Except that nobody would be tracking anyone if you died because the game would be over.

This also would have the intended effect where if Thoth was scum this would throw him for a loop, because I imagine a scum fakeclaiming a tracker would lie about me visiting the NK target to secure their last mislynch.

If I were scum fake-claiming a Tracker, I would have said that I saw Lunatic do it because he should not have been visiting anyone. That, or I would have flipped my claim to 1x Tracker 1x Watcher and said I watched someone visit RT.

I also find the decision to track me from a town perspective perplexing. The only other person in dreamer POE has claimed an active role. Wouldn't you track them to get to the bottom of what they are doing and catch them in a lie if you are town and in dreamer POE?

I wanted a play that could be helpful regardless of the unknowns. I figured that you and Lunatic were a strong candidate for the scum team, so that catching you doing something naughty would effectively be two for the price of one, and I did not want to risk blocking Lunatic in case he was a Dreamer. Now I suspect that you are scum, but Lunatic might not be your scummate.

I claimed roleblocker. If I targeted a town player, wouldn't they know I did so by being roleblocked if I was lying as scum?

Lunatic, were you explicitly told that you were roleblocked or just that someone visited you?

If you the doctor, I'd hope it "makes sense to you".

This post really rubs me the wrong way based on its phrasing, sounds like a scum slip lol

(Post #39) All four of you are possible scum to me, but I think Wryly just meant that, from an outsider’s perspective, it makes sense for the setup to have a Doctor since there are no fully protective roles.

When town see results that mystify them, they don't stall and try to figure out how to post about it. They post about it and let town hash it out. They point out what they see. Especiallyat the endgame. The way Thoth was behaving seemed like the was terrified of whatever info Mharman is playing close to his chest somehow tripping up what he says.

I’m terrified that Magic promised to claim yesterday with the offer of winning on the spot today and then you, Wryly, and Lunatic, at least one of whom is not scum, all pressured me to claim while I was making some effort to hold Magic accountable.

The only info which Thoth had to disclose was already revealed by me at the beginning of the DP.

Withholding my information in hopes it would get y’all to pressure Magic might have been the wrong decision, but you having revealed it is why I had no problem withholding it.

Last night, I tracked Rex because I figured that, since visiting anyone would risk dying and putting scum at parity, if he were what he claims to be, he would waive. Sure enough, I saw him visit Lunatic, which is especially incriminating because it denies a Dream that, from the perspective of a hypothetical townie Rex that trusts Lunatic, could confirm me or Wryly as scum if either were in the dream without the other.

However, since Rex shared his action last night before I got to the thread, I have no information to contribute other than confirming that he visited Lunatic. As uncharacteristically egregious of a scumslip as it would be for such a seemingly experienced and capable player, I wonder if he forgot that he could die and put scum and parity, or forgot that he would if he were town.

I still want to see Magic full-claim, but Rex is basically confirmed scum to me. I think it’s Rex and Wryly, and Rex said Lunatic is town-confirmed to get him on his side. (My other playgroup calls that “pocketing”.) It could be Rex and Lunatic.

I will probably be back by noon Central at the latest. I will post what I have by then. I hope Magic does the same.

Knowing there's a 50% chance this is all a "no U first" scum act makes this 2x more irritating

Magic said he would claim today. I am holding him accountable.

I am saying nothing until Magic full-claims.

In the only other game I've played, mafia all had offensive/sabotaging powers. Is this not always the case?

I don't know about this site's meta, but, in the other group I play with, it's common for scum (werewolves) to have defensive abilities, most commonly Tough, which is a one-time protection from any kill, including a lynch. I might be wrong, but I get the sense that lynch protection is unheard of on here.

I still don't know why whiteflame was offed in particular in NP1, still need Magic to claim, and still don't know what the theme split is.

From what I've seen, whiteflame is considered a strong player, so scum might have wanted him dead just because they were afraid of him.

I still don't know what the theme split is either, but Morgarath and Wargal are the only pair so far that make sense to me.

Rex's claim seems solid, but a weak roleblocker still seems weird to me -- what use is it?

Canary in a coal mine.

Who did you target NP1?

RT said in post #7 that he did not target anyone last night.

Check post #4 today.

Honestly, for me it comes down to his stated thought process thinking he had to have been interfered with to have seen a self-visit,

(Post #141) I was thinking of my role PM in Deltarune, where it said that using Bulletproof did not count as an action. I figured that not counting as an action meant that it would not show as a visit, that this is how other self-applied abilities work, and that both of those hypotheses also applied to this game. Later, I realized that these were unwarranted assumptions and asked Pie whether or not a hypothetical self-applied Bulletproof* in this game would show as a visit, and he said that it would. Not that I believe Magic used Bulletproof last night. I still think it's likely that at least one of us was redirected.

*I say self-applied Bulletproof because I'm not sure whether or not Bulletproof on here conventionally refers only to self-applied night kill protections. I'm guessing that it does because otherwise Doctors could be called Bulletproof, which I don't recall seeing.

One more thing before I try, and probably fail, to go to sleep. We know there is a theme split. The only pair of players with claims that I see as clearly themed together is Lunatic and Rex, but people with more lore knowledge than I have might spot something I missed. I want a claim from Magic as soon as possible because, even if he lies, it may get us somewhere towards determining the theme split.

As I've said before, I can 100% imagine Morgarath as Mafia JOAT.

This may be irrelevant to this game, but are Dreamer results random in the sense that any set of players meeting the Dreamer requirements, i.e., at least one town, is equally probable to show up? If not, does the mod choose the names? I asked Pie whether or not he could answer my questions about a hypothetical Dreamer, and he said that he could not.

I started to write that it's interesting how the dream included three people who were generally considered neither solid town nor solid scum by the end of day 1, but that went away after I reread day 1 and saw that the reads that I remembered as being nearly locked one way or the other, i.e., RT as town and Rex as scum, were actually far from unanimous. Ununanimous. If all possible dreams are equally probable, this would have been Bayesian evidence for Lunatic lying, but not enough to sway me towards voting him, and in any case it's a moot point. The first seven words of that last sentence are definitely in some New Age self-help book.

The fact of the matter is that it’s already common knowledge that we should avoid trying to no lynch though, and with you already having the two ticks against you of 1: appearing on my results and 2: convienently being able to town confirm a dead person, it doesn’t flood good that you also not only participated in the only mislynch we had but also encouraged others to vote for anyone consensus no matter how bad it was, to just hit said consensus.

(Post #134) Any of these points by themselves would be too weak to lynch over, but all three together are strong. (Ecclesiastes 4:12) In fairness, the only mislynch we have had is also the only lynch we have had, and more than half of players voted for it.

but also encouraged others to vote for anyone consensus no matter how bad it was, to just hit said consensus.

(Post #134) I hope I am not insulting everyone's intelligence and game knowledge by explaining this, but there was a numerical argument for blindly lynching.

Assuming exactly one death per game phase, which admittedly might have been unjustified with a claimed Compulsive Hider, and that scum were an odd number of players away from reaching parity, a mislynch would not have changed the number of future mislynches required to lose. This is because, during any day, the number of mislynches until parity equals the number of townies, minus the number of scum, divided by 2, rounded up.

For instance, if scum are 2 players away from reaching parity at the start of a day, a mislynch puts them 1 away and then their night-kill attains parity, whereas a no-lynch keeps them 1 away after their night kill. If scum are 3 players away from parity, a no-lynch leaves them 2 away from parity tomorrow, while a lynch leaves them 1 player away, so that a mislynch tomorrow will win for scum either way.

Since we almost certainly have 2 scum out of 9 starting players, on day 1, scum were an odd number of players away from parity.

If you can hear me in the grave, whiteflame, thank you for pointing this out to me in Deltarune.

You could have encouraged a lynch before deadline without also encouraging laziness in the voting effort. that wouldn’t be changing your meta.

(Post #134) Except that there was no need for Casey to encourage laziness, at least not in the way she did, because I had started a wagon on Rex. This makes me mildly more suspicious of Rex, now that I think about it, as surprised as I would be if the scum team is Casey and Rex.

But that is a problem for after we figure out the scum in the dreamer results.

(Post #136) If we get two wrong, there probably won't be an after. I know that I am town, but, if I looked at it from the standpoint of a neutral third-party with no solid reads on myself or Wryly, both might look like the wrong lynch tomorrow because there is likely only one scum in the dream and the wrong choice would instantly lose for town.

another big issue I’m having with Casey is that she doesn’t even seem to be considering a world where the dreamer results are accurate. Like her whole theory is just that I’m doing a Hail Mary double attempt at a. Scum gambit that I’ve already used before, she actually hasn’t considered the results could be true and if she was town I figure she would at least be trying to look into Thoth or wryly as an option here, instead of automatically accepting they are town.

(Post #137) I agree that this is another strong point against Casey.

I mean it has the obvious problem that if all the town had 'good' characters then there would be a pretty wide outcry against people claiming scum characters.

(Post #138) With no flipped scum, Magic unclaimed, and everyone else but you and Lunatic having claimed protagonists, we can't be sure that not all townies have good characters.

and thinking that the risky part of Luna's claim, assuming he's scum, is that he claimed a villain, not that he claimed Dreamer

(Post #141) I can't exactly say that claiming Dreamer is risk-free.

After reading Casey's most recent post, I'm not ready to lynch her yet. She's still at the top of my sus list, but what she said about those previous games with Lunatic and Rex gives me pause. I'll reconsider my vote once there has been more discussion.

Unvote

He said I* would

Re: post #96

I asked Pie whether or not I would see a hypothetical player with 1x Bulletproof who chose when to apply it visit themselves. He said they would. I presume this applies to other abilities too, but I can't exactly ask about every possible role that isn't mine.

"which it's probably any two out of Casey, Magic, and Wryly."

"As for Option B, I think it's probably Casey and either Magic or Rex."

Bit of a mistake on my end as I was shuffling probabilities in my mind while writing this. I think Rex is unlikely to be scum, but needs to be kept on the back burner. Wryly is a bit more likely, as well as the Doctor claim fits given what we know and think we know about the role setup. I think the most likely duo is Casey and Magic.

VTL Casey

Having read everything in this day phase multiple times, I don't have anything substantial to add to our pool of information, other than that I'm pretty sure that Wryly is a she, not a he (Post #110). I would say Lisa Simpson should have told you that, except that I display my pronouns on my Discord profile mainly to prevent being mistaken for a girl depending on my current profile picture. I made the same mistake last game with Casey because the name Casey made me think of Casey at the Bat and I was not aware that Casey was a unisex name.

I can, however, offer my thoughts on what we know. I think the essential question here is whether the Dreamer is fake, in which case scum are Lunatic and almost certainly Rex, or real, in which it's probably any two out of Casey, Magic, and Wryly.

On the off chance it's Option A, I'd still like thoughts from anyone who has played a lot with Rex about whether or not you think he would do something this risky, especially if he is straight-claiming antagonist, but I think it's unlikely, and I don't see anyone else even remotely fitting as Lunatic's scum partner. In the very unlikely event that any townie has an investigative ability they have not claimed, you absolutely need to aim it at Lunatic or Rex tonight. Despite all the heuristic evidence against it, some part of me still thinks Morgarath is too good of a fit for some breed of Mafia JOAT.

As for Option B, I think it's probably Casey and either Magic or Rex. As badly as my scumdar is pinging in Wryly's direction, and despite the fact that I'm townreading Casey's frustration at Lunatic's grilling, Doctor is a believable claim because it fits perfectly with Malcolm, as Wryly said it would, and, more importantly, there are no other claimed roles that can protect from a night kill. If I had to put numbers to it, I think it's about 4 out of 5 likely that the Dreamer is legitimate. Assuming scum are Casey and Magic, since Magic started the Mikal wagon, he probably has the weaker role of the two since they were willing to risk putting that sus on him, so Casey needs to go first, especially if we somehow clear Rex today. Also, Lunatic (Post #110) pointed out, especially with Mafia being allowed questions about which characters are not in the game, Casey could have thought of her claim beforehand and filled in the blanks later.

Unvote

I don't have any meaningful addition to the rest of what you said at the moment, and I'd like to see other people's input, but you are right that no protection role would be odd. Good catch.

Addendum to my claim (Post #78): I said that I was certain of interference because I figured it was impossible for someone to visit themselves. I might have been wrong. I will ask Pie whether or not self-applied actions like Bulletproof would register as a visit.

hero town - villain scum *

I'm about to go to sleep, but, before I do, I'll respond to what I didn't get around to earlier today.

First off, the thought has crossed my mind that Lunatic and Rex could be the scum team, claiming their real characters. Claiming antagonists while knowing that antagonists are scum sounds reckless, but they might have thought that they could hide behind Pie having run games with splits other than hero scum-villain town. Casey told me before this game started that Lunatic is a notorious risk-taker as scum, but Magic says (Post #38) that Rex would never play that incautiously. Then again, Magic is, well, how can I put it, not exactly town-locked, so I'd rather get feedback from any of y'all who have more experience with Rex than I do: can you imagine Rex straight-claiming antagonist as antagonist-scum if Lunatic asked him to? The problem with this theory is that, if one of them were to flip scum, the other would be nearly scum-locked by association, and I can't imagine even Lunatic doing something that suicidal unless he overlooked that, which I also can't imagine.

Thoth looks the best out of this trio for not being on the Mikal wagon I will say.

(Post #13) In the interest of full disclosure, I could not have hopped on that wagon even if I had wanted to, since I was busy around the end of day 1 and got back later than I thought I would. That said, I never bought Magic's arguments against Mikal before that. Check out post #182 from day 1. Mister Fantastic would be impressed at some of the reaches in there. I should probably also add that I now think Rex is town, so my vote was still likely misplaced.

Okay but I also didn’t participate in the Mikal lynch and argued with magic about why I thought he was town yesterday. Considering he was mislynched, it is clear the mafias plan was to mislynch him.

(Post #32) Not necessarily their plan. Sometimes things just work out conveniently for one side or the other. I might be making a dumb oversight here, but why they would have wanted him gone is beyond me since, as long as he was alive, they had a chance of getting a two-for-one night kill. Maybe they thought Compulsive Hider was a fake-claim for a power role. I think the strongest argument left in Magic's favor is the inexplicability of scum wagoning Mikal, of all people.

We should focus within the results before going to mharman, who again, was the only person who had an actual case against Mikal, most of the people on that wagon only voted him because it would have ended in a no lynch which is more of a scapegoat for scum.

I disagree with Magic having the best case against Mikal. Correct me if I am wrong, but I believe all the points Magic made against Mikal were based on public information plus his supposed reads and knowledge of how Mafia games tend to be built. Magic started the wagon and the other four hopped on either because they were scum following his lead or because they were town wanting to avoid a no-lynch and not being sure where else to go. If Magic isn't the most likely candidate for scum now, he was at the moment Mikal was revealed as town.

Ironically this reinforces my town read on thoth.

(Post #80) What's ironic about it?

everything and nothing... jeez i didn't expect this to be so hard

(Post #83) What the fuck kind of claim is that?

VTL Wryly

If we want to swap to Magic, I'll gladly board that wagon, and I could less eagerly join a wagon on Casey, but my scumdar is blaring after seeing that Wryly ascribed her (in)action to noobiness. I get that we were all new once, according to Bolzano's theorem, and I get that newbies make mistakes, but explicitly playing the newbie card reads hard to me as scraping the bottom of the excuse barrel. I know that because I did it once and it worked.

I've been debating with myself since the start of the day whether or not to full-claim, but, having potentially useful information and now being on the Dreamer PoE, I think I need to. I am Gilan, Tracker. Last night, I tracked Magic and saw him visit himself. I'm as clueless as you are, unless you aren't clueless, but, in any case, I was 100% interfered with.

I'll respond more later tonight. In the meantime, I'll bite on Casey's suggestion. My character is from Araluen and, if I understand correctly, from Araluen Fief.

VTL RexFavilla

I'll get on the wagon because I don't have much of a read on him either and I agree with whiteflame's sus of him.

Magic's points against Mikal in post #177 are interesting, but not enough for me to vote a plausible town claim. I'm less sold on his analysis in #182.

My second gut read is thoth, keeping in mind his whole tactic of "Look guys made a brilliant claim once, so I am not a noob", he is posting quite a bit like last time, but also kind of not really saying anything majorly impactful. That applies to alot of players here including myself, but combined with the earlier sentiment of wanting people to appreciate his scum play, it almost appears bragadocious in comparison to his behavior. I am not majorly suspicious of him at the moment, just kind of questioning his motives.

(Post #200) That's not a tactic. It's a fun story I like to share, and I admit that my inability to shut up about that game could seem egomaniacal, but it was the most fun I had in ever and the game will live rent-free in my head until I die. Notwithstanding that the "brilliant" claim opened a needless avenue to being disproven by saying I could see the alignments of who visited me at night, and that I had precedent and inspiration since that game was full of complicated, half-page long roles. If I'm not saying anything impactful, well, how is that the kind of scum play I would want people to appreciate?

I don’t love how he’s pushing attention onto Magic in particular on the basis that he didn’t rile in response to what REF claimed without substatiation was a hard sus on him.

(Post #204) Completely agree. Not riling in response to a supposed hard-sus is surely at least slightly town-leaning.

Thorn Hammerhand / Thorin Oakenshield also strikes me as a plausible conflation. Based on a quick Google check, Samdash is probably too minor to be in the game.