Wryly

HCBM Mafia DP3

Wryly · 10 months ago

@Wryly why do you keep screaming about me doubting my results when your results are useless?


It's one thing to have inconclusive results; it's another to doubt whether what the moderator tells you is true.


If whiteflame is scum, town were given pretty much nothing in the way of protective roles. I find that hard to believe.

Wryly

HCBM Mafia DP3

Wryly · 10 months ago

Is there much distinction there? Not claiming is giving up, giving up is not claiming.

Wryly

HCBM Mafia DP3

Wryly · 10 months ago

I can see him giving up out of apathy, since he doesn't like being town. What I don't understand is that he said he gave up because of his role, that we'd understand when we saw the flip.

Wryly

HCBM Mafia DP3

Wryly · 10 months ago

I understand your points. I think the greatest one to me is just that Sensor seems like too much with a Tracker and a Cop. It's not impossible. But it's odd. Guess it really depends on how much power scum were given to balance all that.

Wryly

HCBM Mafia DP3

Wryly · 10 months ago

In response to Thoth's soft claim proposal, you said you were number 2, maybe number 1. Later you claimed "choking against the 0-3 broncos that just lost 70-20 to the dolphins." That sounds like an event to me. Why did you think it might be a decision?

Wryly

HCBM Mafia DP3

Wryly · 10 months ago

We can lynch one and if we miss just lynch the other next DP. The question is just who's first.

Wryly

HCBM Mafia DP3

Wryly · 10 months ago

A lot of that was wifom, so I'll just say: yes, a lot of Magoroth's behavior has been sus. I agree that his waffling on the accuracy of Sensor seemed like him trying to walk back a fake claim that didn't land well. His FOS's change with the wind. I'm not sure why he character claimed so early. I'm baffled by his mistrust of the moderator.


Sensor + Cop + Tracker does seem hella OP, and I'm still not sure I believe it. But I do note that scum were given Ninja to counter Tracker, and we suspect they were given something to counter Cop. I would also say that we can't trust that Pie's Tracker wasn't tailored, but I think the presence of a Ninja confirms it.


An alternative theory: Let’s imagine a world with three investigatives. Does that make Magoroth town? Not really. His quick character claim is still against any town or investigative incentive. But you know who refused that I haven’t mentioned? Rex. Like Pie, he didn’t want to claim. What if an investigative role is the flip he felt we’d recognize as the reason he didn’t want to claim? No matter the role, I’ve already concluded Rex just didn’t want to play, and that’s part of the reason he allowed his lynch. If he cared that little, why can’t that be the case if he was the Sensor all along?


If he was Sensor, I don't get his behavior. If I was the Sensor and in danger of a mislynch, I would claim in hopes that the protective would target me that night and I would live to report my info. Why roll over and give up when you have valuable intel to contribute?


Either way: Magoroth is Godfather, explaining the innocent result from Wryly.


My brain may be fritzing again. I never copped Magoroth. How does my innocent result on you explain that Magoroth is a Godfather?


You also haven't addressed why Magoroth bussed Shining unnecessarily last DP, or why Shining discredited Magoroth's information so strongly.

Wryly

HCBM Mafia DP3

Wryly · 10 months ago

VTLing someone in DP3 because they sound "politiciany" is baffling to me, I grant.

Wryly

HCBM Mafia DP3

Wryly · 10 months ago

Imo it seems like common sense to just make the phrasing of the tailored PM sound as close to the phrasing in your real role PM as you can.


If they swapped characters with Rex, they didn't even need to forge anything, just copy and paste.

Wryly

HCBM Mafia DP3

Wryly · 10 months ago

I just can't make whiteflame or Magoroth work in my head for the reasons I stated in #159. If you'd like to make a stronger case to me for either, those are the sticking points for me.

Wryly

HCBM Mafia DP3

Wryly · 10 months ago

You are the most mercurial player I have ever fucking seen


And I've played with Kohai

Wryly

HCBM Mafia DP3

Wryly · 10 months ago

I pointed this out earlier this DP. When faced with a mislynch, I'm not even sure there's a role in the game where he's better off getting lynched than claiming. I ended up concluding that Rex may have been tailored (town redirector, which Shining stole? Not sure), but he also just didn't feel like playing the game anymore.

Although, now that I think about it: If Rex was tailored, why didn't the mafia team make him flip hated? It'd immediately screw Kohai over. It may be that Shining just used the ninja.


Probably because it would make no sense for Rex not to have immediately CC'd Kohai in that case. If you're town and see someone claim your role, you CC, not roll over and let yourself be mislynched.


Mafia are given fake claims. However, they are either given fake characters or fake roles. They are not given both. They did not choose which one they got
From the DP1 intro.


Yeah, my head hasn't been on right. Misread it.

Wryly

HCBM Mafia DP3

Wryly · 10 months ago

I'm in danger of getting tunnel vision on Mag1c here, so let me look at the others.


Magoroth - He claimed Cody Parkey DP1, immediately; I only really see him doing that as scum if he got Cody as a fake claim, which means scum were not given role claims, which means Sensor was a hell of a risk to claim (and so was Roleblocker, unless scum had a Roleblocker). He had no idea when he claimed Sensor in DP2 if there was another informative role in the game that could CC him, like a Dreamer or Informed Townie or something. The way he waffled on the accuracy of his information was baffling if he was scum. Shining pushes hard on Mago and in turn Mago starts to scumread Shining in the middle of DP2 and VTL's him unnecessarily at EOD when voting differently could have kept his partner alive.


whiteflame - If he's lying, then the only thing close to protection town received is Bleeder, which is pretty hard for me to wrap my head around. He questions Shining's Roleblocker claim immediately, points out that Shining didn't even say who he used it on NP1. Shining suggests a whiteflame/Thoth pairing and whiteflame is baffled. This would all have to have been theatrics. When talk of the dayvig comes around, whiteflame proposes Shining. Toward the end of DP2 his scumread of Shining gets stronger and he VTL's Shining. Magoroth was right there, an easy mislynch target. Why vote Shining? Mag1c and Shining both wanted a Magoroth lynch; whiteflame would have been the third vote and then he only needed one more. Kohai would have probably gone along. Instead whiteflame kept saying he actually had a townread on Mago and ends up VTLing Shining.


Just doesn't add up to me.

Wryly

HCBM Mafia DP3

Wryly · 10 months ago

Not if Rex was the Vanilla, that's why he was apathetic about getting lynched, and Mag1c stole his Vanilla and fake claimed it.

Wryly

HCBM Mafia DP3

Wryly · 10 months ago

Another assumption you have to make though


Not if scum asked for role claims instead of character claims. I assumed they would prefer to ask for role claims since justifications are so loose this game; they could make up anything for character.


I did wonder why they didn't just straight claim their characters because of that, actually. Only reason I can think of is it would have made the theme split too apparent.

Wryly

HCBM Mafia DP3

Wryly · 10 months ago

I wonder if the theme split is that scum are injuries
On second look, it looks like Rex was an injury.
Anyway, by injury I meant an injury to a Bears player which contributed to the Bears losing. It sounds to me like Rex's character was an injury suffered by a player on the other team, and that player turned things around in spite of the injury.


What if you were right to begin with, actually. What if scum are injuries, and when they tailored Rex they just gave him one of their characters while taking his for a fake claim.


Mag1c asked Rex at the end of DP1 why he was "here and just committing seppuku" by refusing to claim. Rex said it would make sense when we read his flip. Except it didn't. What about Bleeder makes it advantageous to let yourself be mislynched DP1? Unless he actually had a different role and Bleeder was tailored.

Wryly

HCBM Mafia DP3

Wryly · 10 months ago

I need a bit of a whimsy lift, so have one last injection of wylted quotes.


Wylted: Masturbation Mafia sign ups. This is a solo mafia game. I will only be accepting one player. Signups below.
1.


Yes, someone did sign up and play, you can read it here.


Wylted: I am sexually attracted to gnomes. I don't know why, but ever since I watched David the gnome as a kid I have been attracted to women who look like his wife. My fiance looks like a gnome. Well recently at work, we have a new GM who looks just like a perfect gnome. I haven't seen such a perfect gnome looking woman in years. Long story short, when she walked in, I dropped a bunch of things and just started staring and zoned out, so it looks like I might be fired for my odd behavior. The last time this happened, I was playing a pool game and a lot of money was on the line. I dropped my cue and started walking towards the gnome looking girl. She was so beautiful. Anyway my friend is screaming at me, because he was my banker. I go over to her and I have to scream because the bar is loud and I scream at her, that I want her to stand on my lawn. She gives a confused look, and her boyfriend starts approaching. I tell her "I love you, please let me take you home and make love to you on my lawn". Her boyfriend tries to fight me, but my friends drag me away, and give me shit for losing them money on a pool game.


Regarding this next one: I strongly suspected DrChristineFord was an alter ego of Wylted's he used to play the part of his own therapist.


Wylted: It is my theory, not saying it is true, that BSH1 is not a gay guy. IN Order to be a guy, you need to have balls, and he is too scared to face me in a live debate exclusively meant for Patreon members. He is most likely a heterosexual female. I have even offerred him a McDonalds gift card for participating with no strings attached. I am even willing to up the stakes by putting my imaginary debate champion belt on the line, here after known as "THE SPIRIT BELT". 
Wylted: @bsh1 Send me a picture of you nut sack or debate me live to clear your name. I will not doxx you. The nut sack picture will only be seen by me.
Ramshutu: This is the most pathetic and convoluted attempt I’ve ever seen of a lonely single man trying to solicit dick picks
Wylted: I asked for a nut sack picture not a dick picture. That would be gay for me to ask to see anotger man's dick.
DrChristineFord: If a fat woman in a basement wants to pretend she's a gay guy, there's nothing wrong with that. We already went through this. And anyway. Nothing easier than sending a photo of some random guy's balls. Your level of proof is offensively low. 
Wylted: Correct, I now request he writes my name in permanent marker on his balls before sending the photo
DrChristineFord: Non-permanent would be fine. 


Wryly

HCBM Mafia DP3

Wryly · 10 months ago

Then I am betting that scum got role claims rather than 'character' claims. Blindly claiming Roleblocker is one heck of a risk.
Unless maybe there is a scum Roleblocker?
Anyone want to report evidence of one?


If Mag1c is scum, he would have to have a Lawyer or Redirector or Deflector or Bus Driver or something like that, so if he also has a Roleblocker, wouldn't that make him a bit of a JOAT as well? Do mafia ever get two JOATs?

Wryly

HCBM Mafia DP3

Wryly · 10 months ago

I wonder if the theme split is that scum are injuries


On second look, it looks like Rex was an injury.

Wryly

HCBM Mafia DP3

Wryly · 10 months ago

Why did they kill Kohai?


It's a good question that remains unresolved. My conjecture is that I'm alive because they knew I was the Cop and wanted me to cop a Lawyer or Redirector or something. Why they didn't kill whiteflame, I don't know. His deductive power is something they shouldn't want in DP3, but they might have seen him as a possible mislynch target. If Mag1c is scum, he wanted Magoroth in to mislynch; if Magoroth is scum, he wanted Mag1c in to mislynch. Why Kohai over you? No clue.


Did Shining ever claim anything? That could give us insight into what fake-claim info scum got.


Roleblocker.


I wonder if the theme split is that scum are injuries


Definitely possible.

Wryly

HCBM Mafia DP3

Wryly · 10 months ago

Vader and I had a failure to communicate that turned into what Bob Ross might have called a happy accident. I declared well before end-of-day yesterday that I was changing the lynch to Mag1c. He thought I meant I was only changing it if I were lynched. I know you would all probably be scumreading the ever-living shit out of me for failing to use my Governor veto after saying I would, and, in Mafia, unlike reality, a government official can be punished for failing to follow through on a promise. Thank you to Magoroth for clearing me.


Do you mean you left instructions with Vader to only allow a Mag1c lynch and he misunderstood?

Wryly

HCBM Mafia DP3

Wryly · 10 months ago

The Game Show mafia behaviors are noted.


As for Shining, a few posts where he agreed with me are nothing; I was very active and driving a lot of discussion throughout that DP. As for him townreading me, let's ask: Do you really expect scum to townread their teammate the whole game?


You didn't. You sussed Shining here and a little here. Shining didn't sus you a whole lot except when he said it was "worth taking into consideration" that "three vanilla-like" roles may be too much, but then, Shining was less active than you.


REMEMBER: I wouldn't have thought you were a cop had I townread Magoroth. I specifically searched for a third investigative (really a second one), because I really did not believe Magoroth's claim. The belief in a third investigative that you had would've been interesting, but alone it wouldn't have been enough for me to say you were investigative. For your obvious visit of him, I would have brushed it off as a protective visit; Whiteflame had not claimed at that time.


Not true; you could have thought there was a Cop because you possess roles which make a Cop necessary, such as Lawyer, or because Shining rolecopped me. You then saw Magoroth claim Sensor and, in searching for arguments to discredit him, thought to try and argue that the abundance of investigative roles was impossible and Magoroth was probably lying. This strikes me as a good way to try to get me to expose I was the Cop, if you didn't yet know which one of us it was, and a good way to try and get Magoroth mislynched.


btw, I specifically wanted to hammer this point in because Magoroth spent a lot of time talking about a godfather last DP, at times accusing me of being the godfather. I took it as TMI.


It was odd. Magoroth is not out of my suspicions.


ah yes. Let me bring little miss “MOTHERFUCKER YES MAG1C SCUM”


Petition not to be known as Little Miss Yes Motherfucker


Q: How much do my frequent typos trip yall up?


Not a lot.

Wryly

HCBM Mafia DP3

Wryly · 10 months ago

If Magoroth is scum, then he chose to play it in the most unnecessarily risky way possible. His Sensor claim was a risk; his inconsistency on its details was a risk; his wild, desperate conjectures were risks; the distrust he expressed for the moderator's word was unnecessary and suspicious. As a result he has been a possible lynch target ever since the beginning of DP2. I just don't see in what world all this is a smart play for an experienced player.


Magoroth and Shining's interactions also remain something of an oddity if they are scummates. Shining attempted to discredit Magoroth's results pretty much as soon as he came out with them. After Shining expressed his desire for Magoroth to be the lynch, Magoroth started putting Shining high in his scumreads. This all happened in the middle of DP2, when lynch targets were still evolving and both of them could have done a lot more to steer focus away from one another.


Magoroth could also have denied us a lynch yesterday since Thoth was absent. He could have played tardy or voted someone else. We would have arrived today at MYLO. This is a hard datum for me to dismiss.


My preference is a Mag1c lynch, but I am not done mulling it over. If we mislynch Mag1c, we still have one more shot at LYLO, at least.

Wryly

HCBM Mafia DP3

Wryly · 10 months ago

Got some bad news today I'm still trying to process; will be on later when I can get my head back in the game.

Wryly

HCBM Mafia DP3

Wryly · 10 months ago

Sorry for all the fuck-you's EODP2 btw. I hadn't yet refreshed the page to see you'd put your vote back in, and posted still thinking you'd flaked at the clinch.

Wryly

HCBM Mafia DP3

Wryly · 10 months ago

I get choosing both of them, but why Mag1c over me or Magoroth?


You and Magoroth both VTL'd Shining when otherwise the DP could have resulted in a no-lynch without your votes.


I still almost copped Magoroth just to clear him. May have been a mistake not to.

Wryly

HCBM Mafia DP3

Wryly · 10 months ago

Very interesting play here from Mag1c, considering he was the only one who did not VTL Shining last game aside from Thoth, who is mechanically innocent.


Mag1c is also the only player Shining did not FOS. The two players Mag1c is now accusing were ones Shining opposed, particularly so Magoroth. Take a look at #96, #224, #284, #288, #291. In contrast, Shining largely supported Mag1c's arguments.


Mag1c's behavior toward Shining was also imo consistent with a mafioso whose scummate is in jeopardy of being lynched. He ran interference and tried to keep the field of suspicion as wide as possible by saying "there are no unpairings anymore", stalled on voting by doing a lot of research on people, pretended to sus Shining for this and that only to dismiss his conjecture, said oh yes definitely Shining was a bit sus but he would prefer to lynch Magoroth, etc.


DISCLAIMER:
Technically, I could be a redirector, and pulling some gambit where I redirected Wryly knowing she was cop and would investigate me. If you want to argue that, good luck. Because now I can only be *one specific role*, AND I decided to bring little miss "MOTHERFUCKER YES MAG1C IS SCUM" into the next DP with me.


I'm going to dismiss this. It was easy to guess I was the Cop, so I'm alive for a reason, and that reason is I had some utility to scum. My cop of Mag1c is instrumental to the argument he is making for his innocence, so he would definitely want me in DP3.


But the material point is that Mag1c can only be guilty if he's a Godfather, and according to Magoroth, there could not be a Godfather in his POE.


So we have three possibilities.


  1. Magoroth is scum, has sucked at flying under the scumdar all game, bussed Shining, and during DP2, Shining made a bid to get his own scummate dayvigged just as a ruse (high risk, low reward gambit).
  2. whiteflame is scum, FOS'd his own scummate for most of DP2, and finally bussed him -- and quite unnecessarily, too. With Thoth AWOL, Magoroth waffling about whether to vote Shining or Mag1c, and Mag1c intent on voting Magoroth, whiteflame could have easily prevented a Shining lynch by voting differently.
  3. Mag1c is scum, and mechanically, we're missing something that explains the data as they currently stand. There's a remote possibility he is a Godfather/Framer; he could also be a Redirector, as he himself allows; he could also have a setup I haven't even considered.