whiteflame

Why would an OG scum Kohai CC a townie and full claim out of the blue?

There is zero reason to do that.

I agree with the repeated argument that we should be aiming for OG scum, and I agree David isn't it. If he's scum, it's because he was recruited, and I still don't think that's likely due to his willingness to be the auto-lynch next DP.

The POE of who could be OG scum is exactly Whiteflame.

Obviously disagree.

Let’s say you think I’m the OG scum. I soft claimed Martyr in DP1 why? To avoid being interfered with? Protected?

You said that you weren't going to die and suggested protective roles not target you in DP1. In retrospect, that could suggest a Martyr. It's not the only role that could suggest and it suggests town players shouldn't visit you, but I'll give you credit that the soft works with your role claim.

Let’s say I’m the OG scum who has an active role. Why would I say no to Mikal supposedly motivating me? Let’s say I’m an OG scum that has a passive role. That sounds super weak with a Yakuza to begin with.

I agree, if Mikal did motivate you, you'd have good reason to support what he did. I don't agree with the view that having a passive role "sounds super weak with a Yakuza" as that role is inherently very powerful. It dramatically limits what you can personally do, but being able to convert a town player is a huge boon for scum.

If I was OG scum, why advocate and literally coordinate a mass claim and risk being caught vs getting individual claims to minimize CC risk?

...because it looked a lot townier to pursue the massclaim? A lot of us were agreed on that, and yes, it comes with a not insubstantial risk of being CC'd. Specifically being CC'd on this version of Martyr would be pretty surprising - there aren't a lot of roles in that category and I'd say it's pretty low risk when you're largely just concerned with the existence of a Beloved Princess - but sure, it's a risk. You weren't the only one strongly advocating for a mass claim, so the risk of CC was on everyone backing the strategy, but I'll give you credit for putting much of your weight behind it.

Alright, I finally have some time to dedicate to this. If someone has something they want me to respond to, point me to the post or quote it for me. I'm going to catch up and we'll go from there.

I did say earlier that I’d be slammed today with samples. I’m still not home so it’s going to be a little while yet before I can post more, but if you want to sus me for my absence, at least recognize that I’ve said something already to that effect.

I've got a bunch of samples to process today, so I'm not going to be able to spend the time on here that I'd like, but I do at least want to get some thoughts out before I eat something.

It's a given that I'm in POE. It doesn't make a lot of sense from a game balance perspective that there's so little in the way of protective roles, but no one else is able to validate my night actions, so that's more of a theory argument than anything else. I get that. I also get that Pie's in POE along with me almost by default. We have no information on his night actions, either. I think he's largely behaved in a way that makes sense for a town player with that role this game, especially given that Yakuza flip, but as I mentioned last DP, I would have expected him to be a little guarded about giving up his role given that it effectively makes his Martyr useless to claim it. I acknowledge that that's WIFOM, doesn't mean I can ignore it entirely. It's also interesting that he'd point out the Yakuza Casey and I failed to use in a previous game as scum (seriously, a third time with the two of us as a scum team together would be bonkers, but it was insane that we were together in back-to-back games), when a Martyr designed very much like this appeared in Pie's own Indian Politicians game a while back (he gave me the role).

And while we're the obvious ones, I can't remove Mikal, either. The Developer role stands out to me as more than a bit odd, his first role being a Motivator can't be confirmed and seems like a choice aimed at avoiding suspicion, and his decision to use the Follower on Wryly stands out as odd. Why choose to Follow Wryly when she was already a pretty strong townread last DP? Wryly confirmed the visit, so we can at least rule out an RB, but there's nothing confirming what he used on her. I see no reason to remove him from POE yet.

As for Wryly and David, I just don't see either of them being scum. There may be some world where Wryly uses her role to confirm Mikal, but I don't buy her as a recruitment target at all for reasons I've already mentioned (I just don't see scum recruiting her without knowing her role), and I don't see her as the original scum Tracker tying herself this closely to Mikal. She'd be much more likely to use her role to sus someone this DP. I could see reason to reconsider that if Mikal flipped scum, but without that information, everything about her including her behavior over the last two DPs just reads as town. I can't see David putting himself in a 1v1 situation with Thoth off the bat, either. There's some possibility that he was recruited, certainly more plausible than Wryly with that claim already on the table, but I think the fact that he's already brought up the whole "lynch me next DP and I'll use my role to kill Pie" strategy makes me townread him all the more. He's just too willing to be put on the chopping block.

Alright, low on blood sugar, will revisit this after lunch.

Before we make a decision that gives the game to scum, I'd like to understand why I'm the apparent given lynch for any reason beyond POE. I wasn't Tracked, so I have no validation of my night action. I get that, too. I was willing to claim my target before Wryly said who she targeted, but you can believe that was a calculated risk.

We have precisely one protective role in this game in Thoth. His Apportioner was a pretty weak protective role since it only delayed the NK, and I'm the only one aside from him with a role that can still be protective, effectively backing up his role. I don't want to engage in modpsych too much, but even with my role in play, town seems surprisingly weak when it comes to handling the NK. Really the only counters to it are Thoth's role and Pie's claim, and the latter is useless now that he's claimed it (and I don't think we could call it a protective role to begin with).

It's strange, especially compared with the number of informational roles that have come up, that the protective roles are so thin this game. That seems even stranger given David's role claim, which adds another kill to the mix if he's lynched. It certainly makes for a swingy game, but that seems excessively so if you excise my role from the equation.

Anyway, it's late and I need to get some sleep. It would be a huge mistake to lynch me and I'd like to discuss this in more detail after I go back and read through the previous DPs. Mikal or Pie are both better choices (Wryly's result on Mikal only suggests that he didn't perform the NK), but I don't think I buy them as a scum team, so I'll need to do some digging. Please at least wait until we've had a chance to discuss it before VTLing.

Behavior wise Mikal is my strongest town read.

You're going to need to explain this one. It's a given that I'm in POE at this point and if I wasn't Tracked, then no one can verify who I visited so you have no reason to buy my role. But I don't get the behavioral townread on Mikal at all.

Everyone needs to repost their justifications please.

Sought to make "the perfect organism," used black goo, faked my own death, took the place of Walter One.

What did yall do last night?

I used Thoth's ability again, this time on Wryly. I figured Wryly, who was widely townread and claimed Tracker, was more likely to be the target of scum. Guess I called that one wrong given Vader got NK'd.

Alright, I see no reason to drag this out. I still cannot make much sense of REF’s role claim or the aftermath of said claim. I don’t love that both Pie and Mikal are on this wagon too since they’re both pretty likely to be his partner, but we’ll cross that bridge next DP.

VTL REF

I’m going to hop back on in an hour or two and make my decision, going to be busy for a bit with work.

I dont have time to read through all these pages

Why are you sussing Pie?

It’s mainly a balancing act based on how I think he’d try to avoid claiming his role while seeking a massclaim. It’s more a read of what I think he’d do as town (keep his Martyr in his back pocket and try to invite the NK one more time), though he’s right that that’s a WIFOM argument. At this point, I’m still leaning toward the REF lynch.

Mass claiming together is always better. It works in our live games all the time. And let’s say, I waited, then the opposite argument would be used against me. Pie waited till the end to claim and therefore his role is fake. You can paint any picture you want with WIFOM.

Yeah, I don't want to rely too much on this type of thinking. I recognize it's WIFOM.

The more I keep thinking on this, the less sure I am between you two in particular. The back-and-forth seems authentic, so I can't see a world in which you two are scum together, but I can't write either of you off. I've already stated my concerns with REF, so I want to dig a little deeper into Pie.

I believe the Martyr claim is real, so the main question is whether Pie was recruited. I still think the effort to get a massclaim makes sense from a town perspective, since it clearly got a great deal of conversation moving and has given us more insight into behavior in the process. What's leaving me a little off kilter about him is how his role fits into that decision. There was clearly value to not revealing his Martyr role as town. I disagree with REF that he should have faked his claim as town (the risk of just being lynched as a result was substantial and too many of those types of efforts fall apart), but I'm surprised that he didn't try to garner everyone's claims first before yielding his own. Considering how many of our past games have involved Pie trying to push back on claiming until everyone else had claimed, this does stand out. Granted, the Yakuza flip changed things and the massclaim push itself is different, and granted, it's something I would scumread from most anyone else if they were withholding their claim to see how things shake out. Pie usually tries to hold off as much as possible, though, and this particular role would only afford him more reason to do so.

I could see going either way on this. I think REF's claim still stands out, particularly with the changes he made after claiming, but I can see a basis for Pie as well. It's going to be a busy afternoon, but I'll be done with work before the deadline so I'll make a decision beforehand.

Can't say I agree with your reasoning. I don't have much insight into REF's scum play, but there's a reason he got found out a couple of games back. I don't think he'd have good reason to fuck up this claim as town, particularly given how long he had to get his claim in order. As for Pie, he's been a little more tentative this game, but that makes sense given the Yakuza flip. I would be more surprised if he was just as aggressive as usual.

I just don't agree that supporting this massclaim was anti-town, especially given how little progress we were making in the lead-up to it. I strongly oppose massclaiming in the vast majority of instances, but the Yakuza flip changed that calculus for this DP and not just because of my role. We needed to gain what insight we could on characters and roles to focus attention on behavior. That comes at the cost of scum knowing that information as well, but I still think it's better than lynching with so little information or just randomly seeking claims in a game that's upended our reads coming off of last DP.

whiteflame is high on my list of who I would've chosen to convert as scum. He could have just presented the information from Vader accurately for town cred. behavior seems townie but I doubt I'll get useful behavior reads on experienced players, so I really hate how behavior-oriented this game is

I'm flattered. I think I would have had at least some reason to modify the information if I was scum, if only to make it easier to sus someone who's an outlier - it's not like I gain any towncred for giving an accurate accounting of what Luna sent me, since I'm the only one who received it. And yeah, this game is pretty complex on the behavioral level given the Yakuza flip. It's definitely not just you struggling with reading behavior this DP.

Remind me of your justification again?

David 8 faked his death and took Walter One's place on the crew. There's more background, but this is all I see that's relevant to the role. I haven't seen Alien: Covenant and I thought David 8 bit it at the end of Prometheus, but I guess he fooled me too.

So, instead of pointing to individual messages, I'm just going to respond to Mikal's request just after I hopped off and put people in order from towniest to scummiest.

Vader - In part, this is because I don't think Vader gets recruited NP1. I just don't buy that scum would select him of all people, someone who was almost entirely absent DP1 and has generally struggled to be invested as scum in the past. It's not a 0% chance, but I'd say odds are very low that he's a scum Informant or some other similar role, so odds are that he's unlikely to either have been recruited or been a part of the initial scum team.

Wryly - Not too dissimilar from Vader. I think Wryly is one of the least likely players to have been recruited. I thought Wryly did very well last game at putting the pieces together and arguing in her defense, but she's still relatively new and it would be a big gamble to go in on a newer player for the swap. Scum Tracker is more plausible and would be a pretty ballsy fake claim to give during that massclaim (not that it hasn't worked before), so either Wryly was always scum (which hasn't shown up in her behavior so far) or she's town. I'm inclined towards the latter.

David - David is more of a reverse situation. I don't think there's much of any chance that David was scum from the start, don't think he draws attention to himself with that heads up with Thoth in DP1. So that leaves only the possibility of his having been recruited and his case is one where I would absolutely understand why scum would pick him given his role. David also has enough experience that picking him would make sense. Still, behaviorally, I just don't buy it. His responses to those suggestions all come off as pretty townie, so my opinion of him hasn't shifted much from last DP.

iLikePie5 - The Martyr claim is bugging me a bit. I did end up looking back at the Indian Politicians game he modded on DART and I remembered correctly that he gave me a very similarly described Martyr (it negated kills on the subsequent night), but if I'm right about how he's describing it here, it would just skip the next NP entirely if he's NK'd. I believe that he was biding the NK from his later posts last DP and he gave away that he was a passive role in discussion with Mikal earlier this DP. Still a possible fake claim, but the push for massclaims seemed like a genuine effort to scumhunt and I think he's been forthcoming since.

Mikal - Don't get why he's got David as most likely scum behind REF (just because of the role I guess? Don't see much analysis there), and his role is just something I've never seen before. It does kind of fit for the Engineers, but it's a weird sort of randomized JOAT role that stands out. He did seem to soft the Motivator early this DP with his back-and-forth with Pie, so it's more probable he was recruited if he is scum.

RexFavilla - I'm just having the hardest time with REF's role. The more I keep reading back through these exchanges, the more it looks like it's changing on the fly, going from an "odd sort of role cop" that he can only use on even nights to a character cop (first time seeing that) with the same even night stipulation... but it's also not really a character cop, more like he can get information from Luna about whether a given character is in the game. That does seem doubly strange with the Yakuza flip, since it means he only has one target he can choose who would be at all likely to fake claim their character. I can understand making a mistake in conveying a role, but we've been sitting waiting for full claims and it's weird that REF didn't have his ducks in a row. It's not confirmable, either, making it an outlier.

Alright, leaving it there for the night. Will be back on to discuss in the morning.

Alright, at least we got to celebrate a chunk of the day. I'll catch up and then I'm calling it a night.

And now I’m going before my time on my phone becomes a problem.

I do love shower thoughts, though this one doesn’t work. I can acquire a role during the NP from a dead townie. I’ll have to ask how that would work if it’s a passive role, but if it’s active, I either use it or lose it.

Just checked with Luna on this. I can take on a passive role. If I do, it lasts for the following DP.

I’m not staying on much longer myself, taking my wife out to dinner shortly. I’ll give these claims some thought and hopefully post again later tonight.

Shower thought: Whiteflame is extremely dangerous, possibly far more dangerous than I am. If whiteflame is scum, either original or recruited, they could obtain my vengeful status and use it the next day phase if they are lynched!

I do love shower thoughts, though this one doesn’t work. I can acquire a role during the NP from a dead townie. I’ll have to ask how that would work if it’s a passive role, but if it’s active, I either use it or lose it.

NP1 I tracked Kohai. I had lingering questions about the “two Xenomorphs” thing and I needed to know if the Vengeful role was true as it seemed hella swingy. Kohai visited no one, consistent with Vengeful. Then I read DP2 and realized it didn't matter because he could be scum now anyway. My results only really contraindicate that he was the original scum, unless he waived his power or had a passive scum role (if that's even a thing).

I buy that Wendy would be a Tracker from what I read, kind of assumed a protective role but it fits too. This result does strongly suggest that at least David didn’t start out as scum (could be a Ninja, but I doubt it). I don’t believe he was converted, at least not based on what I’ve seen from him this DP.

This seems akin to the Martyr role you gave me in that Indian Politicians game a while back. Am I remembering that correctly?

I’ll echo Pie, I’d like the justification. Unusual for town to have a role cop.

Why did you think that scum would NK David?

Mainly because he’d be townread and there was a non-zero risk that lynching him in some future DP could backfire on them. That combined with my lack of any other solid reads meant it was a choice between using it pretty randomly and hoping or using it on David.

I’m David 8. Set out to make “the perfect Organism” using black goo, faked my own death, took Walter One’s place along with his role as the crew’s AI unit.

I’m the Scavenger. If I target a dead townie, I can inherit their role for that night and can use it. I picked Thoth, used his Apportioner on David, as I was pretty certain he was town coming off of the last DP (he wouldn’t put himself in a 1v1 situation with Thoth if he was scum).

I'll be on for that. Heading out, got everything typed up so I can post it together at 4 (5 my time).

If we don’t get this done this time. I’m done trying this. Low-key frustrating to time this as we are just sitting around and praying everyone pops on. Would rather just pick someone and pray before we keep doing this. It’s titling me.

Amen to that. I'll stay at work for now in the hopes we can make this happen, but we're getting close to the end of the day.

Just going to sit here and refresh the page every few minutes.