I've been working with the belief that they didn't originally know if they killed the jailor, but by DP3 they realized they probably have.
I'd say it's obvious by now, yes.
I've been working with the belief that they didn't originally know if they killed the jailor, but by DP3 they realized they probably have.
I'd say it's obvious by now, yes.
I obviously wouldn’t have outright claimed that D2. But look at my attitude and behavior around him. I was following him as I thought he was a TPR.
I'm trying to do just that.
First time you mention him outside of posting vote results is #33, where you just put him in the pile of "need a re-read."
You respond to him on the choice of Julian as an NK in #46 and address a vote count issue in #120.
You push back on claiming who everyone is in #121 before just straight up saying who you are in #124.
You put him in your town pool based on "There’s a 0% chance he tries to ML someone who is dying anyway. I also don’t see any scum motivation in outing main accounts" in #248. You then slot him into likely town in two subsequent read posts with no explanation.
What am I missing?
A-Bleys wrote:
A-Deirdre wrote:
This doesn't make sense. First off, you could've just been lying about your read on Random as a plausible Jailor. Second, since it's basically been proven at this point that Julian was the Jailor, saying that you as scum would have continued to read Random that way is meaningless since you had information on his flip by the point that Gerard was NK'd. Even if scum weren't given that information, Gerard might have looked like a plausible Jailor before he was NK'd, hence why he was killed before me.
I actually believe that Mafia was considering that jailor could be alive. I do believe that's why you didn't die. That doesn't vindicate Caine however, as the Random = Jailor could be a pivot driven by either (1) Gerard being VT, or (2) Mafia deciding jailor is dead and considering a fake claim setup. I do think mafia would be interested in identifying the jailor more than town would.
I've been assuming that scum either didn't know they'd killed the Jailor or believed there was another PR in the game. I know I'd be paranoid about people hiding PRs behind VT claims if I was in their shoes.
Except I literally hinted to that both my behavior d2 with him being in my town core and when I hinted this day phase that I had a Jailor read on a player. This was before he claimed
I see a couple of townreads on him in DP2, but this DP is the first time you mentioned the reason being that you thought he was the Jailor. If I missed something, let me know.
If I was mafia I’d always kill random over Gerard via my jailor read on them.
This doesn't make sense. First off, you could've just been lying about your read on Random as a plausible Jailor. Second, since it's basically been proven at this point that Julian was the Jailor, saying that you as scum would have continued to read Random that way is meaningless since you had information on his flip by the point that Gerard was NK'd. Even if scum weren't given that information, Gerard might have looked like a plausible Jailor before he was NK'd, hence why he was killed before me.
A-Bleys wrote:
A-Deirdre wrote:
Honestly, I'm thinking I'll sleep on it. Been a long enough day already. I don't think Caine vs. Random is a TvT situation. For reasons I won't say, I don't think it's mutual bussing, either, so it's likely only one of them is scum. We've got a little over 24 hours left to figure this out, and I'd rather have everyone chime in at this point.
Given that we already have two votes up, one for each of them, I ask that everyone else please recognize that an additional vote puts either of them at L-2, affording scum an opportunity to get a quick lynch if the vote is on town. Please don't place a vote on either of them, even if you feel confident, before we get a chance to hash this out.
I'm in the middle of finishing my DP2 read and I've got my comments in the works on another tab. I'm looking at Random/Caine being SvS as a real possibility. I think it's important to discuss why you don't believe it is a mutual bussing.
Caine and Random my two biggest scumreads still, so the question of whether this is an SvS situation has crossed my mind repeatedly. The main thing holding me back from believing this is mutual bussing is that I just don't buy it from Caine, specifically. Random absolutely would, but speaking from personal experience, I don't think Caine shows this kind of dedicated attention to the task and makes it look this believable. Maybe my problem is just assuming that it's solely his work. I could see Random orchestrating the whole thing.
Honestly, I'm thinking I'll sleep on it. Been a long enough day already. I don't think Caine vs. Random is a TvT situation. For reasons I won't say, I don't think it's mutual bussing, either, so it's likely only one of them is scum. We've got a little over 24 hours left to figure this out, and I'd rather have everyone chime in at this point.
Given that we already have two votes up, one for each of them, I ask that everyone else please recognize that an additional vote puts either of them at L-2, affording scum an opportunity to get a quick lynch if the vote is on town. Please don't place a vote on either of them, even if you feel confident, before we get a chance to hash this out.
I'll get back into it when I get a chance. I would like to hear from Random on your #215.
We've got enough time left in the DP to take our time with it, so I'm not committing to my reads entirely. There's a mix of good points and weaker ones coming from Random and Bleys.
@Bleys I did clock how odd it was for Random to continue to push on Oberon knowing that he was set to die by the end of the DP due to the Blackmailer. And I don't agree with Caine that he'd do pursue Oberon to save Fiona. Oberon was almost certain to never be the lynch. That being said, I went back and checked and the Blackmailer would have retained it's 1X charge if no one had been killed by it. It's possible that he wanted to lynch Oberon to be able to use the Blackmailer again, though the big flaw there is that it would have been far less likely to work the second time around after Oberon flipped town and everyone was ready for the effect. I can see the value in Random getting the lynch, but again, he had to know this lynch wasn't going to happen if he was scum. It's just a weird push.
@Random
A) I played this game because Gerald asked me to and based on his interactions I had already town blocked him. He knows me better than anyone and is faster to catch me than anyone as well. He had me as a hard town read. In what world would I kill him. I would have kept him alive and buddied him. It makes no sense to kill him
I'm a little hesitant to townread you chiefly based on Gerard's read, and as for killing him, that's an issue of WIFOM. Maybe you would have killed him to use this very argument. It's a small point in your favor that he townread you solidly, though my experience playing with him previously has told me that he does sometimes shake solid townreads as the game goes on.
B) I soft claimed my role DP1 and why I wanted to lynch between vanillas. I have been consistent
Softclaiming VT, particularly in this game, doesn't matter much to me. There are too many VTs and many of you softclaimed early.
C) I don't regret my read on Oberon. I really did think scum had a win con and a stall could win them the game potentially and he always takes gambits
This is a better point in your favor just because I don't think you'd push this avenue as scum, but I've already covered that.
D) my reads are not perfect. As I mentioned I played this for Connor and also because the site needs mafia activity. But there has been no chance for me to build out reads like I normally do because of the amount of posts and because of the new job
I believe you're actually busy, that's just NAI for me.
My gut says caine. Hes been all over the place this entire game. Town read me heavily. Jumped on the oberon idea when I was wrong and no adjusting his logic when im on the table. He seems overly opportunistic. I struggle to read between his poor reads and town play and his scum play but I do not like his play this game. As gerald mentioned. Even last game his reads were better and consistent. This seems all over the place
I'm strongly considering Caine already.
If not him. Look at the people that are genuinely frustrated with angle shooting as mafia would be mad that he hasn't killed me
The point about angle-shooting, particularly from you, is really not persuasive as a reason why you would be scum. Anyone who knows you knows this is normal behavior, which may be a large part of why Gerard townread you. It's not a strong alignment indicator for me, but I get the frustration with people using it to pursue your lynch.
I am also VT. I've been out and about getting a new monitor and desk. I'm just about home and I should have time to work on catching up more before work. Especially as I can use a keyboard now that's not in Cyrillic
Well, cool that you got the monitor and desk. Damn that is a lot of VTs. 7 VTs, 2 town PRs, and 3 scum. I have a very hard time believing there's a 3P in here.
Sure, I actually meant to claim earlier this DP. I am... A VT. I was trying to act like I had a good PR that I didn't want to out in hopes of baiting the NK. Obviously, it didn't work.
Seems like baiting the NK is what everyone was doing, and yet scum still got a PR NP1 in a town pool with literally two PRs. Crazy.
Just to confirm no jailer I’m wondering if it’s best to now claim jailed / not jailed
Unfortunately, we know how that would turn out. There goes two potential POE reductions. Scum clearly lucked out.
Alright, so since no one else has claimed to be the Jailor, is that your role?
To counterbalance the illusionist unless I am misunderstanding the set up
I guess that's possible, but I doubt it. I think the goal of the Coroner is to counter the Traitor, and it makes the Illusionist kind of pointless.
I’d honestly be very surprised if enthrone left was VT and there wasn’t a coroner.
The Coroner assumes a Traitor is in the game. We know there isn't one because we know the roles of all 3 scum. So what purpose would a Coroner serve?
And yes, I claimed Prince while reference a post seeding my pronoun thing for being given a female flavor but a male role.
Technically the Coroner is listed as a Prince as well, though we now know that's not a mechanic in this game and it wouldn't matter anyway since they're both town, but yes.
If I had a vote I would say Brand claim first.
That's fine, he's closer to scum in my POE than Bleys.
A-Llewella wrote:
We should wrap up claims before we move into votes imo
Agreed. I believe you, Random and Caine have all claimed VT if I remember correctly. We all know I'm the Regent. That leaves Brand and Bleys. You guys both need to step up and claim.
I'm still chewing over why Fiona would have such an epic crash-out. Maybe it's because he just wanted to do this his own way and wasn't willing to listen to his scum partners. Maybe it's because those same scum partners weren't super active, which would hardly be a first. That's not to say I'm sussing people who were offline for much of the last DP, especially since certain players are more likely to do the work even if they have limited time (can think of a couple). Fiona could've done all this to get bussed, maybe thinking he just wanted out of the game and to flame out in a way that could help his partners. Each of those would lead me in different directions for sussing, so this is still pretty complicated.
Prob won't have time to catch up like I want.
A wild Mikal has appeared! It uses Schedule Conflict!
Lack of sleep last night is really getting to me, but I'll at least give some basic thoughts on what's been said recently and how I'm seeing everyone shaking out so far.
I'm appreciating Bleys' analysis a good deal, particularly that big post on DP1. My read on Bleys going into this DP was just little informed since they hadn't posted enough to form anything meaningful, but this second head is doing work.
I had the same response Bleys did initially to Brand responding rather positively to my reasoning for voting Martin, though it seems like enough of an outlier that I'm hesitant to scumread it. Getting on the same page as me for a vote that, at the time, didn't look like it was going to result in a lynch anyway doesn't make him look too opportunistic.
Llewella's grown more town to me a little over the course of the DP. Especially given what I think they're avoiding saying (could be wrong, but I don't think I am), I get the aim and it doesn't seem manufactured. I'd like to see how things play out with claims before forming a more solid opinion on her.
That leaves Caine and Random who have stood out to me a good deal for distinct reasons, all of which I've already expressed. Random not having posted for most of today doesn't help develop any new info on him. I'm hesitant to read the focus on mechanics involving a 3P as unlikely for Caine to consider outside of being scum (from past experience with him, I think it's plausible that's NAI), but it doesn't help. In general, drawing any focus to a potential 3P at this point does rub me the wrong way, even if it's just to say how scum might perceive them.
Order probably goes (from most to least scummy):
Random
Caine
Brand
Bleys
Llewella
There's some room for movement in there. Might be worth getting more claims at this point, and I think I've come around to having the Jailor out themselves.
Apologies for generally being absent much of this afternoon and evening. Suffice it to say I've got a debate to handle and I had barely made a dent in prepping for it the last two days, so I needed to make some headway. I'll catch up on the DP and post my thoughts before it gets too late.
Understood, leaving it here.
We are really shooting ourselves in the foot as we feed scum info and ideas before they role claim.
If scum don’t know this much, I’d be shocked, but fair enough.
A-Llewella wrote:
Claiming jailed first just cuts out the potential of a Mafia being forced to claim first and getting it wrong easily solving the day mechanically. (Or they put their entire team on the line and we solve the game today with more information to play with)
Don’t think I’ve revealed anything others don’t know at this point (my post went up, so I was not RB’d), but you’re right that it’s probably best to let the Jailor reveal the pertinent info about targets should they claim.
A-Caine wrote:
A-Bleys wrote:
Maiden, I have 1600 posts to read through before I have behavioral reads.
I think you misunderstand my concern. I understand that a jailor exists. What I am asking is if anyone has been jailed after the Mafia used their illusionist. I want to confirm that we know the jailor is not dead before we give a jailor claim a free green check.
This is actually a great point. Everyone needs to claim if they had been jailed or not.
I have not been jailed
I haven’t either. I guess there is some chance that the first NK on Julian killed the Jailor, since their jailing of Pie should have happened before the NK resolved. If that’s the case, this is going to get dicey.
If they existed I do not know why they would not have outed D2. I could see withholding the role result they got but flatly claiming they used their 1 shot and X player is town would be the obvious play.
I would be very suspicious of such a claim today and would demand some wild seeding to buy it.
Same thought.
I would say more, but I think you are right there is one. If I explained how a detail about it I would just be handing mafia a play book on what to do at that point which is why I just need to shut up >.<
Yeah, I'm not planning on going more into depth on this, either. Just saying it's something we should be considering.
That’s not what I’m saying.
we lynch scum. There’s a NK. This means the person they jailed is town
True, and we discover that after the NP instead of before it. I don't see the difference.
Valid, but what is the advantage?
I guess there's not a lot, but at least scum won't know that they're the target going into the NP. Not that they can anything about it anyway. It will matter more if the Jailor doesn't out themselves this DP.
If we kill scum then the target serves as a investigation role
So that's assuming we have an investigative role. If there is Trump Master in play and we're talking about everyone claiming today, then we can revisit this idea after they claim.