Jailor must out their target.
Yeah, I 100% think that before hammer Jailor should out a target.
Question: why?
We know scum have no roles to interfere with wills at this point. Why not have the Jailor leave their target in their will? Worst case scenario, they die and reveal their target. Best case, they survive and tell us.
A-Caine wrote:
One potential problem: Mafia can waive NK to incriminate the person that was jailed.
If they do, scum are putting themselves in a bind. If we lynch correctly, we're at 4-1, so they've just doubled the number of remaining DPs. A couple of games back when I was scum, I waived the NK in an attempt to avoid suspicion (and also draw attention to the claimed Vig), and it worked for a bit, but I was sussed out anyway. POE's a bitch and scum have to know that decision would be playing with fire. I welcome them to make it, though, drag this thing out, bring it down to a final 3 and see what happens.
I'm still a bit hesitant, but I understand the logic for outing the Jailor at this point. If they successfully Jailed someone, that will at least indicate that their target was not the new Lord of Chaos. It will also give us another townlock.
Alright, I'm taking a break from this. I'll come back after I've gotten some work done.
I have not yet looked into the setup roles list. Why do we know that the jailer is not the illusionist?
I think you mean the Interrogator, but the answer is simple: because the game is still going. We know there's an Illusionist (the Janitored Julian flip), a Blackmailer (Oberon's death last DP), and the Lord of Chaos (see: Fiona). That's 3 scum. There are six players left alive and there are no dual roles (beyond inheriting the Lord of Chaos, which is necessary to execute NKs), so we know scum only have two players. We already know what their roles are, so there is no Interrogator.
And we know that there's exactly 2 murderers left? Doth that include Mafia as well as third party forces or just Mafia?
Just Mafia, though if there is a 3P left, that would be a pretty unbalanced game. With 12 players, the potential setups are 9-3 or 8-3-1, and with so many Vanilla roles in play (we've already seen 4 of them flip) and no Mafia Goons, it would be difficult for me to buy that there's a 3P in play as well. We also haven't seen any of the 3P roles listed come into the game in any obvious way. Doesn't nix them entirely, but more importantly, it just doesn't matter. We're at MYLO. The only thing we should care about at this stage is whether we hit scum.
I really have to get to my work, so I don't have a lot of time to go over reads right now, but I'll do my best.
I agree with holding off on votes. Digging last night Cain was actually a decent town lean for me from the Fiona train / D2
They were the first to push consideration on if we were in Mylo and such. They were shoving Fiona prior to the claim situation and then they hard shoved Fiona throughout the day. I think its unlikely they are Mafia bussing especially given Fiona was not pushing back on them as I typically see with theater. Fiona was appealing to them which comes more from a wolf trying to placate a town.
I've gone to a slight scumread on Caine. He had scant little to say about Fiona in DP1 (fair because he hadn't posted much), and really only started into Fiona in post #131. As for whether they'd bus each other, I'd absolutely believe that Caine would bus Fiona given how scummy he looked coming into this DP. I also believe that Fiona wouldn't draw attention to the bus by pushing back, particularly if they were getting ready to fall on their sword (which Fiona clearly did).
Brand is still pretty null
I did note D1 #1024 from Fiona digging through the flipped scum
We have less than 1 hour. I do not think the lynch will be anything but Flora or Brand. just Relax
Probably the most potentially AI post out of Fiona I grabbed skimming their ISO. This was as Fiona did shift from not voting to voting Flora so potential of distancing there. They also never shoved Brand, just took a soft stance.
Something I noted people may want to glance at and get their feelings on.
If Brand did bus Fiona, they did it a lot earlier and with a lot less reason to do so, calling out the decision by Fiona to jump on Flora's lynch late in DP1. I can absolutely see the DP2 pressure as bussing from Brand, but if we're comparing between Brand and Caine here, I see the latter as more opportunistic.
Randoms D2 looked bad to me. Their hard focus on Oberon D2 after they claimed to be killed was very odd. The initial reaction I can understand but the way they doubled down on that position felt contrived. 3 specific issues-
1- They voiced it with hardline 3p focus in a game state it was being repeated that we specifically needed to hit mafia. This lines up with a mafia mindset
2- They voiced unreasonable certainty that does not track with their reasoning saying things like "If we leave his fucker alive. I would bet my left nut hes going to hijack an account." Could be their natural hyperbole? Could also be a scum messing up how to align his conveyed certainty with faked reasoning
3- They absolutely avoided the shit out of touching the Fiona situation. I get having focus elsewhere but never touching the major day subject while hard focusing on such a random tangent? This is the most concerning thing to me. Looks like a wolf who is frozen and does not know how to deal with a team mate going down so they say nothing then just slap on a vote when its clear they are cooked for the post flip optics.
I'm not sure why Gerard was so ready to townread Random beyond just knowing who this player is and how they generally act behaviorally. I don't mind that they went on a tangent so much (if anything, I kind of townread them for going after a mislynch that was never going to happen, doesn't line up with scum tactics I've seen before), but there was scant little focus on Fiona and it was just an acknowledgement of the CC as the target of the lynch last DP. I can't tell if that's just him trying to steer clear of saying much about it or being resigned to not being able to convince us on Oberon.
Fun introduction to you, second head.
Hello, I am the one known as Bleys. I am not the Bleys that was. I am the Bleys that will be. My memories are as yet unclear. With time and meditation I will surely remember the past and aide you in the saving on this kingdom. My task was made clear, but the circumstances I was to arrive into remain shrouded in a deep fog. While I search my memories, it would be of great benefit if you may all introduce yourselves and individually describe to me the events of the past months.
Long and short of it:
DP1: Lot of discussion over what scum would use as a fake claim with an emphasis on Vanilla claims since they don't have access to fake claims. Led to some Vanilla on Vanilla violence where one player (Martin) was lynched by coin flip, another (Flora) was jailed and then killed by said jailor (we have since determined that this player is town), and another (Julian) was NK'd by scum (we now know Fiona carried out the NK given that they were the Lord of Chaos, the only role that can perform the NK for the scum team) and the flip concealed by an as yet unknown Illusionist (Janitor in all but name).
DP2: Mainly focused on Fiona due to both a lack of activity DP1 and a last minute VTL that went largely unexplained. In the middle of the DP, Fiona claimed to be the Regent, putting out a message that appeared in the OP. I (Deirdre) CC'd that claim, then Fiona proceeded to spiral. They proclaimed themselves Jester before hammering themselves (there are a couple of 3P roles that turn into Jesters if the conditions are right), but their flip proves that they were in fact scum and the Lord of Chaos. In the mix, Oberon was Blackmailed by another member of the scum team, which resulted in their death due to violating the rules of said Blackmailing by the end of the DP.
We now know who is on the scum team. There is an Illusionist and a Blackmailer remaining, and one of them has also inherited the Lord of Chaos role. When one scum is left alive, they will either be the current Lord of Chaos or will have inherited it yet again and will, presumably, also inherit one shot of the Blackmailer role.
Yeah This is why I think the jailor should out themselves.
I have a very strong jailor read on a particular player but don’t want to say who or why yet
I can see the idea of it because it would prevent the NK and we have every reason to believe that scum have no means to mess with their role. That being said, I don't want to put a target on them during the NP, either.
So, again, that confirms that the Lord of Chaos role was transferred because that's the only way there would have been an NK NP2. We know someone has it, so the Blackmailer role is still very much a threat for next DP.
Never mind. Disregard. What I said on DP1 was correct. Only the Lord of Chaos can perform the factional kill.
Alright then.
I guess it doesn't matter, though. If we mislynch this DP, then it's game over anyway. If we lynch correctly, there will be only one scum so jailing them would still be a red check.
I must’ve been drunk when I said that. Anyone can perform the factional kill
Alright, so... huh. If anyone can perform the factional NK, then someone else could indeed perform it if the other player is jailed. Frustrating.
This is also worth noting
Description: You are a noble Amberite in charge of a wing of the castle dungeon, discreetly detaining suspects and gathering information on behalf of the Crown.
Ability: Pick a target during the DAY to jail. They will be removed from all chats for that night, be roleblocked, and become immune to all night attacks. You gain a one-night anonymous night chat with your captive.
Once per game, you may optionally execute your captive, killing them.
Jailing is a perfect roleblock, meaning that it roleblocks roles that are normally immune to roleblock.
If a mafia member is jailed then the team will know and the one who isn’t jailed can just submit the NK. Ergo town has no way of stopping the NK
This would be a fair point if we hadn't already been told that the Lord of Chaos is the only player who can execute on an NK. We were outright told that if the Lord of Chaos is jailed, there is no NK, so you were right that successfully preventing an NK is a red check.
The way I am reading it is that the GodFather mechanic gets passed on.
'if' there are 3 mafia
GF dies D2. One of the two remaining becomes GF. No big deal
Today we have Blackmailer + Illusionist, eliminating specifically Illusionist promotes Blackmailer to GF.
The Blackmailer getting +1 charge of Blackmail/Kill is something to keep in mind. Thats the potential
I could be reading this wrong. A lot of things going on there at once. But I figured its worth putting it in everyones minds and openly talking about now for a few reasons.
I'm reading back through everything I can find on the Lord of Chaos this morning. Magoroth said back in DP1 that the Lord of Chaos is the only role that can execute the factional kill for Mafia. Also, I apparently can't read because the role says "This modifier will be transferred to a random living Mafia if you die," so yes, someone else has it. I will note, however, that it doesn't matter which member of the Mafia team we lynch today because regardless of who that is, the other will get this role and, if I'm reading it correctly, will get a shot of the Blackmailer. Where it gets confusing is that the roles says they "inherit the killing ability," which the Blackmailer would already be, but I'm guessing they'd just get an additional shot whereas the Illusionist would get the role and the shot.
@Magoroth could you confirm that that's how it works?
A-Llewella wrote:
Oh, Another subject I rambled about in my last will was the Godfather/Lord of Chaos role. Important thing some probably overlooked but we should talk about-
Lord of Chaos
Description: You are a senior lord of Chaos, supervising the Chaosite incursion into the Kingdom of Amber.
Ability: You have the final say on the Mafia night actions.
Special Mechanics: When you are the last Mafia left alive, you inherit the killing ability along with one charge of whatever Mafia Killing role was alive at the start of the game. This modifier will be transferred to a random living Mafia if you die.
Other: There can never be more than one Lord of Chaos at any one time.
So Blackmailer is listed as Killing. This means if we flip the Illusionist today the Blackmailer becomes GF, Gets a night kill and a Blackmail charge they can use in the same night. Huge implications for tomorrow everyone should keep in mind. If this is forgotten by the town it could cost the game.
I flagged that Lord of Chaos mechanic earlier, but I don’t understand how it’s still in play or why specifically killing the Illusionist results in the Blackmailer getting an extra charge. My reading of the role is that you have to be the Lord of Chaos and the last scum left alive to get the charge. This would satisfy neither of those requirements unless the Blackmailer somehow inherits the Lord of Chaos role. If I missed something about that, please point it out.
I’ll look through your reads later.
Yeah, there's a reason I'm not posting a vote at this point. Even with four votes to lynch, remember that there are still two scum in this game. Don't be cheeky about it and give them an opportunity by putting anyone at L-2.
As for who I'm sussing at this point, Caine and Bleys are definitely high on my list as they were for Gerard. No one's super townread, though. POE's still wide open.
No idea why I'm still alive. Had a whole will written out and ready to go, too. Guess I'll have to save that for later.
By the by, the new post is from One Piece.
So we've got 6 players left, which includes our Jail Officer. We now know that there are two scum left - the Blackmailer, given how Oberon died, and the Illusionist, given Julian's Janitored flip. So at this point, it's either 4-2 or 3-2-1, and I highly doubt the latter. Thankfully, both are effectively Vanilla now, so they just have an NK left. Note: that rules out a Disguiser and confirms that the Jail Officer is not the Interrogator, otherwise scum would have 4 players and this game would already be over.
As for how to proceed from here, I'm a little hesitant to have the Jail Officer out themselves yet, though that might be necessary eventually. To start, going to need a claim from Bleys now that he's a hydra.
I’d say it seemed pretty obvious (that’s why I initially mentioned it), though I couldn’t dismiss him even with that assumption.
Well… guess he was the Jester after all. Great.
Honestly, just don’t have anything to contribute at this point. I gave my reads and now I wait for the lynch and the inevitable NK.
A-Fiona wrote:
Welp I didn't want to admit to this but I'm actually the jailer
I lied about the whole thing to out Deidre out of fear for an illusionist who could wipe us out and then use our claims. Ofc now I'm dead in the night but it's worth it.
You're immune to mafia claiming your role now Deirdre. you're welcome.
Thanks, man. I needed a good laugh.
A-Bleys wrote:
I don't know if Magoroth has someone to replace me, but my car's transmission blew up yesterday I will not be able to play unfortunately.
Ugh, sorry to hear it. Do what you have to do, man.
A-Caine wrote:
There is one thing I want to consider
Description: You are a Chaosite from the royal family, with shapeshifting abilities and the ability to walk the black road the straddles the multiverse.
Ability: Attack a player at night, killing them. You will disguise yourself as them, taking over their account. They will flip with your account’s name, their own role, and your last will. One charge.
What if Fiona’s account got taken over? Scum could have taken over the account and that explains the sanitized NK on Julius.
The day 1 tone and behavior from Fiona is just extremely different. Their behavior makes zero sense.
I wouldn't say they participated enough last DP to get a bead on their behavior, but if Fiona's account did get taken over, that would still set Fiona as scum wouldn't it?
Got a couple of other things going on today that have restricted how much I can post, but I'll at least get out some basic reads for now. I don't see a world in which scum let me survive the NP after publicly outing myself and getting the CC as confirmation, so I might as well get something down. Behaviorally, I think I'm on a similar page to Gerard, so I'm going to delve into players in relation to my main scumread.
Fiona - So there is a non-zero chance Fiona is 3P, which would make this lynch a whole lot less indicative than I'd like since that would mean any attention Fiona got last DP as potential scum is NAI. That being said, I'm going to be treating Fiona as scum because the scenarios where he's doing all this as 3P are far less likely. No one needs me to explain why I scumread him, so let's get into everyone else.
Caine - I'm noticing just how generalized his reads on Fiona were last DP. Not a lot of interactions to note, but then Fiona was barely active. Beyond just saying that Fiona should claim early in DP2 and noting the lack of activity, there isn't much from Caine about him. He did take a solid stance against Fiona in #131, though I'm questioning whether that's due to the obvious attention Fiona was set to receive this DP from inactivity or even a pre-planned crash-out.
Bleys - Being absent absolutely does not help Bleys' case, especially since they said they'd be active by yesterday night in their last post. No reads yet, nothing. Not even a passing thought about Fiona in DP1, let alone a read set. I hate to just sus inactivity, but it's hard not to notice with him.
Oberon - The weird confusion between Flora and Fiona still puzzles me, especially since they were posting so distinctly in DP1, sets Fiona aside in #93, and gives intent to lynch in #386, so significantly later than most. That being said, I don't think all this is an attempt to play us with a fake out. I get what Random is getting at and it's possible something more is going on here, but since we have a solid scum pick already, I don't see a good enough reason to eliminate him here. Still sussing him a little, but if the Blackmailer plays out like he's hinted at, that won't last.
Llewella - No thoughts on Fiona last DP. Put some attention on Fiona in #162 saying we should hunt through the wagons on Flora and Martin (one of five players, but that's something), pushing back on the Jailor outing just after Fiona claimed to have posted the quote gives Llewella some credit from where I'm sitting as well. Could've been an opportunity for scum to score some information from someone who at least looked solid town at that point.
Brand - Jumped pretty quickly on Fiona's decision to VTL Flora last DP and followed up before the end of the DP. Pretty quick to sus Flora this DP as well in #133 and #275, well before the CC. It's possible he was just bussing Fiona for that entire time, but much as I behaviorally flagged him a bit as well, his position on Fiona lends him some credence.
Random - No insight into Fiona last DP and though he's acknowledged that Fiona is the focus of attention at this point, his attention has largely been on Oberon. Can't say he's given me much to read into on this front. Warmed to him a bit behaviorally over the course of this DP, but I'm a bit mixed on the pursuit of Oberon for claiming the Blackmailer was affecting him.
Gerard - Was advocating for lynching inactives for a period over the last DP and even directly stated that he'd prefer Fiona over Bleys. Also one of the persistent voices in the room when it came to calling out Fiona for his vote last DP, bringing it up again early this DP. That would be some intense bussing.
So yes, if we're considering lynches for future DPs, setting aside some fuckery from Oberon, Bleys put himself in a particularly bad position and should be posting reads the next time he comes on. I'm not sussing Brand as much as Gerard is, but Caine is a little sus to me as well. I can't dismiss Random or Llewella entirely, but they'd be tertiary picks.
It seems like a very narrow possibility executioner was targeted with one of Julian or Flora. I think they are playing up the jester thing to get us paranoid
My vote isn’t changing anytime soon, but yeah, can’t help but be a bit paranoid about it.
A-Fiona wrote:
lol he's trying to argue im jester because now he wants to get out of my flip
lynch him
You argued a couple of pages ago that a mislynch is almost guaranteed to end the game, no flip required. If you’re town, explain why I would actively avoid lynching you as scum despite the direct CC and your own math showing that your flip wouldn’t matter anyway. I’ll wait.
A-Oberon wrote:
Shit forgot about jester
Yeah, unfortunately the Associate and Executioner both can turn into Jesters.
I am rather distracted but the 2 things of interest to me is if they confirm it’s an original post and if you can confirm it’s an x post.
past that the vetting is a thing but those two details potentially out a hard slip
I confirmed I copy-pasted the post. It’s not original, but I didn’t get it from social media.
My big concern here is why would Fiona bait CC from crier instead of Jailer, a much more critical role to out. It could mean the Jailor is already dead and got janitored, and scum is saving that claim for someone worth saving.
Crossed my mind, too, hence the possible Jester scenario.
