Helz

Duno how that will show you where my heart is at but I will do it if you explain your reasoning.

Thoth and Rex are two other slots I am interested in

The shitty thing is this game gave extremely little room for a policy elimination and that tiny room was basically eaten by Kohai.

We roll the dice either way but if they are town we basically have to play perfectly the rest of the game unless town can pull some shit.

Im not sure what else anyone can say. I repeatedly brought up how much I could give a shit less about their claim and just want content from them. Others shoved and demanded content and they just made excuses about how they have been around more and claim. They never give any and other people seemed to loose interest after they claimed.

Im kinda at a point of "Do we just let this slot slank through the game and cross our fingers or do we kill them" at this point.

Given we lost our critical invest I am not sure if we have a second that could mech solve them. Its going to be a really fucking stupid situation to deal with late game no matter what if they are not resolved. But also resolving them today gives us pretty much no info at all and if we miss then tomorrow we are at MYLO

Its possible.

One of my issues with Ultra on either side is that no matter how much they get pressure they never seem to give anything that lets me read them. I have no idea what to do with that. They just claim or give blank reads with little reasoning.

This puts them as LHF town or frozen scum who do not know how to fake reads. But if the second one was the case maybe they would get somewhat coached by their team more?

MeowMix wrote:

Honestly Wylted your D1 is wolfish as hell. But I can't see Casey's ISO before you joined in for some reason.

It was only one post saying they were going to dinner or something and would post later.

Later never happened.

Honestly it would be an awkward thing to even write into a read. "This guy is hunting but hey, maybe its because he is able to look like he is hunting because 3p exists"

Like.. What kinda point would that even be? Its just a dynamic shift in that Mafia in this game are very likely not certain if a player is town or not and they will construct legit scum hunting arguments because of it lowering the value of "Dude looks like they are legit hunting"

Im not sure that I directly voiced it. Its something I have been considering in my reads. I am certainly not going to bother going through my 200 posts or whatever hunting for an example for you. If you want to say I am guilty until proven innocent thats your choice. I do not have the time or desire to deal with a FoS that puts the burden of proof on myself. I gave very clear reasoning for what I was thinking about which I have not only explained in detail but referenced as one of my core beliefs of how scum hunting works years ago.

MeowMix wrote:

Helz wrote:

So uhh. Im stupid and have half a brain on the game. Doing a million things right now and accidently responded to Luna thinking I was responding to Pie. Uhh.. Yeah.. That happened >.<

Let's not worry about that. Go back to your post where you brought up third parties but before you read it, put your thumb over your name and pretend someone else wrote it.

What would you think about that persons alignment or information they have?

I drew the conclusion that 1 was super likely to be a true claim from the host. It only looks odd when you throw it around out of context.

So uhh. Im stupid and have half a brain on the game. Doing a million things right now and accidently responded to Luna thinking I was responding to Pie. Uhh.. Yeah.. That happened >.<

Lunatic wrote:

Just a heads up I will no longer be answering questions as loosely as I have been. If the question doesn't directly relate to your role I will be a bit more tight lipped about it. Hate to see mafia games devolve around discussions about mod answers, not really what the game should be about. Just don't take offense if I refuse to answer a question in the future, its not personal.

This is about me understanding why you thought it was such an unreasonable assumption that 3p was in the game. If I had to put a number on it I would say I am 85% sure that there is a 3p. I find it unreasonable to assume mafia chose to do option 1 for their lie given there is absolutly zero advantage I can see in doing so. You have approached the situation acting like its unreasonable which is what I am suspicious of.

So given this is not idle mod speculation and actually me digging into your reasoning- what number would you put on it? Why did you think it was so utterly unreasonable for me to think there was 3p that it must be some TMI slip? Or did you simply forget the intro post?

ILikePie5 wrote:

Helz wrote:

Dude. What are you even on about. It was disclosed to us at the start of the game and we had extensive discussions about which of the revealed things is likely to be a lie. It flatly says in one of the host revealed mechanics that a 3rd party exists and I concluded its very unlikely for scum to choose that as the thing thats lied about.

Okay, but you’re not 100%. At least, you shouldn’t be. You’re writing like it’s gospel.

Ive already mentioned that the utility of #1 to scum is very little, but I’m not writing like I know there is definitely a TP. It reads as a Freudian slip.

That combined with the other “questions” you supposedly asked Luna, there’s a sort of pattern forming. I know people don’t agree with me on the latter and that you indeed could’ve asked that, but to me it’s still a negative point in your favor.

Thinking about it. Given what we know if you had to put a number on it. Like from 1% to 100% likely what number would you put on there being a 3p in this game and why?

I really do not know why your acting like its unreasonable to assume a 3rd party is in the game with what I am saying. I have never once voiced certainty on the subject and simply am playing assuming its the case given the information in front of me. You can read though my reasoning on the posted mechanics and easily see how I drew such a conclusion and then pivoted to speculate on how it changes the way we will need to hunt.

Same as I did when I drew the assumption that Kohai was tailored. I gave my reasoning and then started working from that assumption on what it would indicate.

If you were not on such an unreasonable line I would be suspicious of you for it.

I do not think Scum Pie woulda screwed this up. Its much more likely their team would have told them they were doing a bad push and reminded them of the obvious first post.

Unless you want to argue that its likely for the Mafia team to have chosen that as the lie its a very reasonable assumption to believe there is indeed a 3rd party.

Dude. What are you even on about. It was disclosed to us at the start of the game and we had extensive discussions about which of the revealed things is likely to be a lie. It flatly says in one of the host revealed mechanics that a 3rd party exists and I concluded its very unlikely for scum to choose that as the thing thats lied about.

Been digging but I will need to adjust my entire world view.

I do still feel Ultra has not given much to read them. They claimed... Great... And by great I mean thats absolutely fucking useless to me and did nothing but help the mafia if they are town. But I would cut back to the question of if they are simply LHF and do not really give reasoning in any game or if this is just a frozen wolf who does not know how to fake reads and analysis.

Pie is doing normal Pie things. I am slightly pinged that they are acting stuck on if I could have possibly asked the host a question and think thats scummy. But logically even if I was scum I would have had to think to ask that question before hand in order to know that was safe to post which makes it kinda nonsensical. The pattern of bouncing from person to person grabbing one small thing then just demanding claims or setting up to demand a claim is a bit on my mind. If they did not do it every game I have played with them I would call it very scummy but its somehow the normal thing to do on this site.

Im going to spend more time going through re-reading everyone with the mindset that Kohai was actually town. About to kick off a very busy day so I may not be around much at all

Wryly wrote:

ILikePie5 wrote:

Can we please put votes on Helz and force him to full claim. He’s clearly coming from an informed perspective whether that be the TP statement or the one about scum choosing from a list.

I don't think the latter is relevant since it would be in character for Helz to ask Lunatic questions about how scum were allowed to create the fake mechanic.

@Helz I'm not going to push you for a claim but I would like an elaboration on DP1 #291.

Im kinda amused that Pie can not even believe I am good enough to ask targeted questions to help me solve in a situation.

When I want to actually be try hard sometimes I can be an absolute nightmare for hosts often asking lists of 15-20 questions at a time. This game I think I have only asked 10 or 15 so far. But quite a few were about that mechanics list with a lie in it.

And if you put yourself in Pies thinking its odd they are still stuck on this after they themselves (and other town) confirmed asking the host that exact question. This is in absolute contrast to Kohai voicing a number of options given while that was information the host would not give out from a question.

To answer your question though basically my same response I gave to Pie in #155. If it helps it draws from reasoning from the draft of a guide I was working on years and years ago.

https://www.sc2mafia.com/forum/showthread.php/45881-Helz-guide-to-improving-as-a-player-Part-2-Fundamentals-of-Scum-Hunting?highlight=Guide+improving+player

The core idea was to dive into theory and identify true tells then tie it to actual examples using MU games to reference actual slips and carve out true analysis scum hunting. That was after I shifted away from breaking games with methods I later decided were just utterly against the spirit of mafia. I think all I ever publicly released was my piece on Macro Meta Crunching. But I never ended up following through as I got some specific individuals in MU pissed off and they have decided to be total pieces of shit about a situation so I just abandoned the project.

But yes, This is what I was rambling about. And I think its very sound reasoning breaking down the core differences that exist to identify actual tells which was partially the core concept Dmitry Davidoff was outlining when using it as a tool to explore psychology and hidden information within group dynamics. I just wanted to take it a step further and nail down specific identifiable tells and why they function.

Wryly wrote:

whiteflame wrote:

Helz wrote:

Im really against us just claiming for no reason right now. Could we just not? Its D2 and yet again a huge portion of players have claimed all over the place.

If I didn’t feel like mine was already very obvious, I wouldn’t have done it. I agree we should keep claims to a minimum, it’s the reason I didn’t even want Ultra to claim.

You said last DP that there was a "reason you softed." Can you elaborate?

I will unpack that tommorow

ILikePie5 wrote:

Can we please put votes on Helz and force him to full claim. He’s clearly coming from an informed perspective whether that be the TP statement or the one about scum choosing from a list.

I swear you are an absolute crack head fiending for claims.

You do know you could actually read the massive amounts of posts I have made or ask me questions. This mindless "Lets slap votes around and then demand a claim and then go somewhere else" thing I will never understand. I really and truly appreciated it last game when I was scum though. Made it super easy on my scum team.

ILikePie5 wrote:

Yeah. Throwing a bit out here and there for softs to point to is great and all. And I do love the trolling. But I think we should be cautious about claims. Sniffing out the mafia is going to be more complicated with a confirmed 3p to deal with. They will be able to genuinely scum hunt because one exists in the game and the 3p itself adds all sorts of wild potentials into the situation

Can you elaborate on this post?

I believe true tells draw from differences between the alignments. This one comes from the fact that Town are uninformed while wolves are informed.

In a game without 3p Town has to hunt and read players. Because of this a number of differences exist such as towns hunting being genuine and the reads they get being truly based off the information they are looking at. In contrast wolves have to fake scum hunting which some struggle to even fake while their conclusions are fabricated and not really based upon reads creating a potential gap between their reasoning and their conclusions.

In this game this does not exist. Wolves can genuinely hunt and have real reads with real reasoning making it more difficult to identify indicators.

Eh, Yeah. I think one person figured mine out but Im good with it. I thought I was being more clever than I was apparently.

Im really against us just claiming for no reason right now. Could we just not? Its D2 and yet again a huge portion of players have claimed all over the place.

I think we should hold off on claims for a bit unless there is a solid reason for them. Maybe consider a mass flavor on D3 or something but I see WF as being one of the more towny players so far.

Apparently I was just really stuck in that tunnel. Is what it is.

I will have to re-think Wylted then. Also means their PoE is a valid consideration with it coming from a flipped town.

I suppose I can say I poked some people that this game needed a replacement and its a site I am interested in getting more into that they may enjoy. I do not know anyone by that name so if I do know them they are smurfing.

Duno how many other people Luna or others talked to but I will say the people I spoke with are all pretty solid players.

ILikePie5 wrote:

Helz wrote:

Starting to feel like MeowMix is trying to throw shade >.>

Do you know them personally?

Im not sure. Its possible. For me to say more would bring in some OOG conversations I will not go into.

ILikePie5 wrote:

I asked Luna questions about the Tailor in the previous DP, and he said I can refer to Tailors in previous games and his modding style would be similar.

It doesn’t make sense to be able to change Inno/Guilty when the person was lynched. And Helz spreading this idea is really just causing more chaos which honestly is fueling my scumread on them

I gave my thoughts and asked for other peoples thoughts on the manner. Figured it was an important potential to talk about.

Feel free to kick up your own line of conversation if you feel this is unproductive.

Starting to feel like MeowMix is trying to throw shade >.>