Helz

Thoth wrote:

I am honestly willing to sheep Helz at this point. Wherever he votes, there I vote also.

While I appreciate the offer right now I have you an WF as strong town. I would rather hear your views and work with them than you follow whatever I think. I think I am a decent player but I am wrong all the time as well and would rather I am less sheeped than I have people to work with and bounce ideas off of.

Bullish wrote:

casey gets lynched today and flips town, there's mechanically at least 1 scum between me and mikal.

I gets lynched today and flip town, there's mechanically at least 1 scum between casey and mikal.

Mikal gets lynched today and flip town, there's mechanically at least 1 scum between me and casey.

There is no distinct utility to lynching anyone of the POE in particular. I can say the words, I can't make yall understand them. Just lynch the scummiest person, which is mikal. He's the only 1 of the 3 who did not soft claim. The only 1 of the 3 with an inherently scummy role, that has appeared as scum in past Pie games. The person who's setting up the mislynch train with the no-utility lynch casey plan. The only person to be soft CC'd - it's kind of ridiculous some of yall have trouble believing 3 investigatives exist in game, yet have no problem believing that a redirector, lighting rod, and bus driver all exist in the game; multiple redirecting roles is a resolution nightmare, there's a reason there's usually no more than 1 per game.

I have nothing else to say, except that my results are useless and may be actively detrimental to out before lylo. My vote is on mikal.

I get all of that. But I still do not understand why you are shoving so hard that you are certain about those two slots.

I do disagree that Mikals role is more scummy than Caseys. Caseys role is an absolutely perfect claim for scum. They force an FoS on multiple players with unverifiable results creating a PoE thats below RNG. The fact they have no D2 results is also on my mind. Their behavior has also given me very little to view them as town. Removing this Casey/Mikal/Bullish pool I would have placed them as a slight scum lean. Nothing from what I am looking at helps me feel like "Yeah, someone could look at this slot and demand they are lock town." And yes, I am still considering that there are 3 invest claims. Thats nothing damning but it does increase the chances one of the claims is fake. Then they seem to have nothing but scum reads. I even directly asked them earlier this day phase for their town reads because what I am looking at is they only exclusively town read Rex.

Mikal my main suspicion is based on me questioning that N1 kill. Redirectors are one of the potentials and I strongly view WF as town. Behaviorally they look pretty towny to me outside of that. Very openly voicing thoughts and shoving unpopular views they seem to truly believe with good progression when I look at their reads.

For You my main concern is your level of certainty seems unreasonable. But yet its on both alignments which lessens it being a scum indicator. And every time you give me reasoning I do not feel it really justifies your expressed certainty. The way you keep hard invalidating the thought that 3 invests could be too many also pings me. I get thinking its not the case, I get thinking it is the case- But acting like its an utterly unreasonable conclusion that should be killed with fire seems like you have some survival focus. And you are basically in 2 seperate pools I suspect at once. Casey/You/Mikal has a scum for sure. Then I question Rex/Casey/You all being invests together. And your reads feel very different than what I see.

I have made some good progress on my reads largely clearing Thoth and WF which narrows my PoE but I still have the same line of thinking I had yesterday and we did not really get any spicy info outside of Bananas flip.

Im more confident now that Thoth is town. There is no way I will ever vote to eliminate Whiteflame unless Rex specifically flips scum. I do not see it as reasonable that they could be scum unless they are specifically team scum with Rex which I doubt.

Bullish wrote:

I mean I know mikal's the scum, but if I get lynched today, part of me wants to see casey get lynched tomorrow for betraying the only person risking their own neck against her lynch.

Exactly what is it that makes you so sure Mikal is scum and Casey is town?

You keep pushing it like you know it for absolute certain as opposed to it being a read yet you claim you are simply a motion detector.

RexFavilla wrote:

Hold the phone, weren't you 1x?

Maybe me being alive is because of the mafia thinking I was 1x. I wonder if this thought came from a conversation where that assumption was made in another chat.

There is a separate thing I wont go into quite yet thats more of a town indicator but I have been slightly watching to see who pushes me given I am the non-CCed town protective. Equally wanting specifics about how many times I can act and such is something I feel would be golden info the Mafia would want.

RexFavilla wrote:

Helz wrote:

Mag1cman wrote:

Helz and Mikal are in mechanical conflict.

If we assume Helz is town, the only real explanation we have for his action failing to protect Kohai, is if he was redirected away. Which points to Mikal being scum.

If we assume Mikal is town, then no one could have redirected Helz away from Kohai. Making Helz scum in that case.

This has been on my mind. I was not told my action failed either night. I figured D2 that some form of redirect/witch/control/movement had to happen for my action to fail which WF and Mikal fit the bill for.

Positionally I am also confused why both would openly reveal as that given its the core issue for the kill to begin with. My target tonight survived but obviously I was not on Banana. Really did not expect that kill.

Hold the phone, weren't you 1x?

No. I am not 1x

I would rather not say more on that subject for obvious WIFOM reasons

Mag1cman wrote:

Helz and Mikal are in mechanical conflict.

If we assume Helz is town, the only real explanation we have for his action failing to protect Kohai, is if he was redirected away. Which points to Mikal being scum.

If we assume Mikal is town, then no one could have redirected Helz away from Kohai. Making Helz scum in that case.

This has been on my mind. I was not told my action failed either night. I figured D2 that some form of redirect/witch/control/movement had to happen for my action to fail which WF and Mikal fit the bill for.

Positionally I am also confused why both would openly reveal as that given its the core issue for the kill to begin with. My target tonight survived but obviously I was not on Banana. Really did not expect that kill.

I will also say if Casey is scum they probably have some non-visiting role. That would line up perfectly with the dreamer claim. Im not sure what scum non-visiting roles are meta on this site but something to consider.

Casey_Risk wrote:

Helz wrote:

Casey_Risk wrote:

Helz wrote:

Casey_Risk wrote:

So, that solves one mystery, I suppose. Weird that Banana didn't claim her role and weirder still that she was the NK. Not sure what to make of that yet.

I don't expect anyone else to be on at this time other than Luna who's dead now, anyway. I'm only here because I can't sleep. Ironic, given my role, or perhaps fitting. No dream this time.

I do not see a world where someone visits you as town. Even if someone thought you were scum thats still a play town would want to hear you unpack more mech info.

I will have to chew on this but hopefully some mech result will show that visit.

Have you considered that the person who visited me was probably scum?

Obviously. I was pointing out that it must be.

There is the -or- where you are the scum and you faked a worthless read pool to cover your actual role. What you claimed is a perfect fake claim imo. I can not question you about your targeting because your information is randomized, you have a pool of multiple people which throws the town a curve ball while giving results hardly above RNG, and even if the town flips people in your pool you have both deniability if the flip is town as well as a stronger FOS on a second player.

To be direct right now I am trying but I am unable to think of a more effective claim to make as scum.

Sure, I understand where you're coming from completely, and I'll even add that I have seen scum successfully pull off a dreamer claim in a previous game I hosted (the one Luna was talking about earlier). The two things I will say in my defense: (1) as I mentioned earlier, I did actually soft my role in my very first post this game, and (2) I revealed my results immediately at the start of DP2, when I couldn't have known that no one visited me (and if I were scum, or even if I weren't, I think me being visited was probably the safer assumption than me not being visited).

Yeah, My lizard brain keeps cutting back to what a perfect scum claim it is. That and them not having results today is sort of convenient if Casey is scum. Part of my thinking is that if I was scum I woulda laughed at them making pools that shoot below natural RNG and let them get more peeks to angle around. And town would have absolutely zero reason to visit them.

So either they are scum lying, Scum did a stupid, or town did a big stupid. But in every situation I am scratching my head and questioning what happened there. I figure it may clear up as the day moves forward but I am paranoid on the subject.

Thoth wrote:

I really wish that Helz had waited for my approval before claiming to be in a chat, or at least before claiming who he was in a chat with. Yes, I am currently chatting with Helz.

Yeah, I probably shoulda waited or kept it secret for a while. Duno how much it mattered with the flipped town but there could have been angles we could have played if I had not revealed and the game is not getting my full attention

Struggling to catch up and manage my obligations at the moment.

I would have some follow up questions actually-

@Casey_Risk Who do you town read? I am seeing tons of scum reads but just not very many town reads which pings me

@Shining What are your reads? Its D3 and your a lurking Nullburger I have nothing to go off of

Thoth I want to hear more positions from but I have a chat with so I can handle that there

Thoth wrote:

I wonder if Banana thought exactly one of Helz and I is scum and wanted to see if we would slip in a private chat.

The N1 choices of Mikal and WF do not make sense to me really. D2 Banana started to scum read Mikal but D1 they had no position on either them or WF I took note of.

That does bring up an interesting subject of reads though. Just for a note dump-

Kohai scum read Magoroth, was neutral on Rex and shining and town on Thoth and WhiteFlame

Lunatic was town on Banana, Thoth Me, and WhiteFlame, Neutral on Bullish and Casey, Scum on Magic, Mag, Mikal, Rex, Shining

Mag was town on Whiteflame, Scum on Bannana, Bullish, Lunatic, Mag1c, Rex, Thoth and Neutral on Shining (I have holes in my notes here having missed the EOD1 and did not update Mags stances as I dug through it. So take these as early D1 positions)

Banana was town on Casey and Thoth, Scum on Bullish, Mag, and Mikal

I may have been blowing up Pie with questions this game. Sorry brother >.<

I struggle with games that do not have a revealed OoO but you get to find it out by playing 500 questions piece by piece.

Ok, Scratch that. Just looked in my DM log and Vanillaized happens after blocks and redirections. My mind is just wrong there.

whiteflame wrote:

RexFavilla wrote:

I tried to target Magic to track him tonight because I figured someone outside the POE would carry out the nightkill, so I could either clear or catch him. I was vanillaized. I also got no result. I asked Pie if another role aside from a vanillaizer would be required to cancel my night action, and if another hypothetical tracker targeting me would see me visiting Magic tonight. He said they would not see me targeting Magic and that vanillaizer alone would be enough to eliminate my result. This means that being successfully targeted by a vanillaizer under Pie's system means that you DO NOT MOVE. Whiteflame claiming to have been vanillaized and me seeing him visit Shining cannot both be true. He is lying.

VTL: Whiteflame

Do me a favor: ask Pie what the order of operations are on Lightning Rod vs. Vanillaizer and on Vanillaizer vs. Tracker. Spoiler: one of our roles processes before the Vanillaizer and the other doesn’t.

I am about to ask but I do have a problem here. Yesterday I was flatly told that Vanillaizer happened before any form of redirection.

I do not think you would take such a hard position and not expect me to verify given it would be an utterly damning verifiable lie in this situation but I got told the opposite which lines up with what Rex is saying.

RexFavilla wrote:

I tried to target Magic to track him tonight because I figured someone outside the POE would carry out the nightkill, so I could either clear or catch him. I was vanillaized. I also got no result. I asked Pie if another role aside from a vanillaizer would be required to cancel my night action, and if another hypothetical tracker targeting me would see me visiting Magic tonight. He said they would not see me targeting Magic and that vanillaizer alone would be enough to eliminate my result. This means that being successfully targeted by a vanillaizer under Pie's system means that you DO NOT MOVE. Whiteflame claiming to have been vanillaized and me seeing him visit Shining cannot both be true. He is lying.

VTL: Whiteflame

I gotta check with Pie but this does seem damning which would be about as hard of a red check as an alignment checker.

Im a little thrown off given WF was one of my harder town reads and I have trouble thinking S! Rex would make this play without us being in Lylo or something but the logic is pretty solid here.

Casey_Risk wrote:

Helz wrote:

Casey_Risk wrote:

So, that solves one mystery, I suppose. Weird that Banana didn't claim her role and weirder still that she was the NK. Not sure what to make of that yet.

I don't expect anyone else to be on at this time other than Luna who's dead now, anyway. I'm only here because I can't sleep. Ironic, given my role, or perhaps fitting. No dream this time.

I do not see a world where someone visits you as town. Even if someone thought you were scum thats still a play town would want to hear you unpack more mech info.

I will have to chew on this but hopefully some mech result will show that visit.

Have you considered that the person who visited me was probably scum?

Obviously. I was pointing out that it must be.

There is the -or- where you are the scum and you faked a worthless read pool to cover your actual role. What you claimed is a perfect fake claim imo. I can not question you about your targeting because your information is randomized, you have a pool of multiple people which throws the town a curve ball while giving results hardly above RNG, and even if the town flips people in your pool you have both deniability if the flip is town as well as a stronger FOS on a second player.

To be direct right now I am trying but I am unable to think of a more effective claim to make as scum.

I won't consider or talk about mod kills or replacements on principle. Whatever people feel about that should be handled post game imo.

I will have one with Thoth today. If its the same its a 1 day chat. Covers what banana did.

Casey_Risk wrote:

So, that solves one mystery, I suppose. Weird that Banana didn't claim her role and weirder still that she was the NK. Not sure what to make of that yet.

I don't expect anyone else to be on at this time other than Luna who's dead now, anyway. I'm only here because I can't sleep. Ironic, given my role, or perhaps fitting. No dream this time.

I do not see a world where someone visits you as town. Even if someone thought you were scum thats still a play town would want to hear you unpack more mech info.

I will have to chew on this but hopefully some mech result will show that visit.

Really the last thing I want to hear this day phase is another 20 posts of "Trust me bro" and "Please just vote this guy"

Make clean logical arguments and lets work with that and keep your emotions on the side. Thats my "Please"

Bullish wrote:

This is the only coalition today to lynch mikal. The other people are scum or lost causes.

The weird amount of thumbs up on your posts pings me but can you explain this position clearly?

You keep screaming about this person needing to die but I straight up want to demand reasoning if your gona do this for another day. I want to hear why that person is scum and why you trust those people and think others are just absolute scum.

Intentionally not saying this in the sign up thread but really optimal play breaks down in towns favor in every way.

Lazy Sheriff reveals. Scum CC's or does not

If they CC they go 1v1 50% RNG followed by loosing a player the next night (if they win.) Bad gamble to take. Everything goes right they enter a 3v1 D3. If its wrong its a 4v1 D2

If they do not CC town plays follow the sheriff. He picks 1 townie to keep alive and they eliminate in order of scummy with a 60% RNG chance and days of information to conclude who the finalist will be.

I do not think scum has a chance in this one tbh.

I think the lazy sheriff breaks the game balance in favor of town. Forces the game state into a 5p 2/3 PoE as game starts having town shoot into a pool of 40% RNG success starting at D1 or scum doing a CC and taking a 50/50 for worse odds. The added factor of having a semi-confirmed town though is a big thing though. Simple follow the sheriff strategy really shifts the game into the sheriff picking exactly 1 player they think is town and running through everyone else saving that 1 person for a 60% RNG chance of town winning before the game even starts or a word is said.

Just a thought.

Helz wrote:

I feel we need to focus less on the hard mech of what exactly happened and such and more at the potential motives and analysis.

Do the actions take. By people match their reads? What alignment intention would it line up.

And that thing few have really focused on yet today- the individual motives as the Casey train shifted. Great farm for indicators

do the actions taken.

Fuck posting from a phone. Last one tonight skimming back through the thread before wrapping up social obligations

Bullish wrote:

whiteflame wrote:

Just seems like we don't agree on how this breaks down at all, so I'll stop here. Others can choose who they agree with, but continuing to discuss the numbers between the two of us clearly isn't getting us anywhere.

You've presented no numbers that contradict mine. If you read #465 then #469 and still can't see the plain math, then you are scum.

I think you should slow down and drink some water. You hammering your desires on everyone is not productive. I do not get your 1v1 position or your insistence on math I disagree with but if you want people on a slot you should shove them with analysis and reasoning. Not cram it down their throat with emotion that honestly just makes it harder to read you.

My straight up read on your more recent posts is that you ended up doing Jell-O shots at a TGI Fridays a few hours ago as I struggle to pick out the reasoning and logic inbetween. No offense

Helz wrote:

Mag1cman wrote:

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO HAVE CLAIMED NIGHT ACTIONS ALREADY

could you remind me?

Figured you knew given you were just quoting me. I’m suppose to rope block everyone and I was on the Innocent Child

Role block* phone auto correct

Mag1cman wrote:

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO HAVE CLAIMED NIGHT ACTIONS ALREADY

could you remind me?

Figured you knew given you were just quoting me. I’m suppose to rope block everyone and I was on the Innocent Child

I feel we need to focus less on the hard mech of what exactly happened and such and more at the potential motives and analysis.

Do the actions take. By people match their reads? What alignment intention would it line up.

And that thing few have really focused on yet today- the individual motives as the Casey train shifted. Great farm for indicators