Helz

The mech info I still want is knowing who created the chat. Big value with like minimal cost there imo

Catching up and not going to be home for a bit but I think independent of alignment Bullish should chill a bit.

While I do believe some of the numbers they are pushing are wrong it’s not a factor I consider AI at a glance. Obviously a 4p mech PoE in an 11 player game has lower odds, (not better) of a pool.

I will try to take some time to explain more but I wouldn’t mind seeing the emotional temperature lowered and greater focus on analysis and reasoning as we near the end of the day.

Mag1cman wrote:

It is worth noting, that rolestopper is a somewhat common as a role on the mafia team.

Yeah, I find that to be the case globally as well. I just generally dislike fake claiming as town unless it’s a gambit RT kinda deal I have set up prior to resolve.

Lunatic wrote:

Yeah I made this same point earlier. They were suspicious of each other for like 5 seconds then magically town read each other lol

Yeah. The way its voiced gets me a bit. Like Bullish's last comment:

Anyone still stuck on "3 investigatives is too much" is being obstinate.

To be fair they have a point citing a game where 3 invests existed. But the messaging of not just saying they disagree its the case but invalidating it as a concept that it is even reasonable for people to consider.

I was really hoping to see at least one of the three sorta clear themselves responding in the opposite way a scum would obviously be inclined to.

Something I was hoping to see but have not is the Invest roles to treat the situation as more of a CC. Im not seeing that at all. Instead of being suspicious of etchother they seem to be circling the wagons and supporting the existence of multiple invests. Thats the exact position I would expect scum to make deflating concerns about their claim while pivoting elsewhere but its like they are all doing it. I was really hoping to see at least one pop up and shove that its a reasonable potential as a strong town indicator..

Casey_Risk wrote:

Honestly, I was pretty surprised that I got a dream. I was expecting that someone would likely investigate me.

This is an odd assumption. As an invest you assumed you would be investigated... Is there something in your role that declares you being investigated changes things? What made you think there would be multiple investigators?

It would be like if I assumed as a protective I would get protected. That strikes me as a strange conclusion thats out of place from an uninformed town mindset.

Might as well say this bit as well- One problem I have with mass pre-flip claims is that it gives scum a roadmap to how to line up eliminations. They get to hear in advance "Oh, if we eliminate this slot these players will want want to eliminate this next one tomorrow."

Rather dangerous potential.

Thoth wrote:

Again, I would like to ask everyone: Imagine that any of the three people in the Dreamer PoE were lynched. Imagine that they flip town or scum. That's six possibilities. How would each of those affect your view of the game?

Quite honestly I think town should be focusing more backwards than forwards.

We have a train we could analyze with a super awkward shift and it has gotten rather limited attention. Pre-flop association hunting has its place but I feel looking at D1 holds greater value in general.

Can you explain your reads more clearly? Its D2 and I still have rather limited understanding of what your views are.

VTL: Bullish

I would like them to stay as an option. Out of everything Im really stuck on Casey/Bullish. 3 Invests looks like too much to me and separately there has to be a scum between Bullish/Lunatic/Mikal/Casey. In either situation Casey/Bullish feels the most likely. Rex would be on my mind but Casey's PoE overlapping the mech just matters more.

WF is my top town read. Only thing that has really pinged me about them this game is the conclusion that there is a non role reason their chat exists. Thats very much on my mind

Lunatic feels town. I have not seen their scum game yet but I feel pretty comfortable there. Worst bit I see is their D1 reads were overcrowded with scum/neutral but its also not outside of what I remember from them before.

Thoth also feels town to me. They do some things I really disagree with but they seem pretty transparent. Still not sure what to think about their role claim but whatever; we will cross that road when we get there I suppose.

Banana I feel like I should see more from. I keep waiting to see them dive into the game but they feel really distant? I feel like I usually mind meld with their takes and this one I am getting very little. Im not sure if they are just not connecting with the game or if they connected super well the other game but I keep waiting for something I am not seeing to confirm.

Mikal has some strong points. The way they approach the game really bothers me but its not AI and I am largly suspicious of them due to being in Caseys pool as well as them claiming a redirective role. 'Something' happened last night and I am probably going to stay paranoid about them the rest of the game because of that.

Mag1cian I am also just not really drawing much one way or the other on. Off the top of my head I remember being pinged a few times and seeing things that made me feel they were town to the point I am still null.

Shining needs to get into the game. I am seeing very little from them. Really not sure what kinda read anyone could have there.

Rex still looks scummy. I dislike more now that there are 3 invest claims but they are outside of Caseys pool which certainly hits a scum no matter what. I do not think they should be a serious option today but its very much because I see two overlapping pools to shoot into.

Casey I have a similar view as I do about Banana. I keep expecting them to roll out with a bunch of thoughts that will click with me and I will recognize them as town. But it does not happen. Then there is the pool they created that I see as a decent scum claim. Then there is the D1 train that took them to L1 then suddenly got hard derailed without them claiming or even posting which feels odd followed by the opposing train flipping a townie. I am not comfortable with them.

Bullish I am confused at how they have not gotten more attention. I feel like the entire game they have been substantially scum read by everyone and somehow get no pressure? Now they are semi CCed with 2 other invests and have a potential 1/3 red check from Casey. I would like to see more attention on this slot.

Mikal wrote:

No one should out what their roles are other than who has outed thus far. We have enough. Few people have been quiet and can be game changing pending what they are. Limits scum from trying to alter results or tsrget specific people. Unknown roles are our best tool for poe

What I was trying to say before clankers went derpy and a weird half post came out was that I disagree. I think very specifically the person that made the chat should claim.

Them staying hidden holds no value and its almost certainly town. I see the value of having another player strongly town read as having greater value than PR insulation. Especially given I am our protective and I am already outed.

.....

Mikal wrote:

No one should out what their roles are other than who has outed thus far. We have enough. Few people have been quiet and can be game changing pending what they are. Limits scum from trying to alter results or tsrget specific people. Unknown roles are our best tool for poe

But if we buy Casey's results then we have to just town lock them now otherwise we are put in a postion where they are on the table tomorrow if we lynch in the dream and someone flips town and then its (lylo) assuming 3 scum

Il not willing to blind trust the dreamer claim given scum can ask game specific questions and it came up after high amounts of pressure when they logically would be looked at hard

Casey's flip unfortunately is necessary imo to cover bases and make sure we are not blindly killing ourselves.

Im still thinking 1 scum between casey and bullish. Bullish for potential balance reasons and the tmi he has toward casey being locked and casey just for safety more than anything. Its not worth the risk to walk off a cliff if we are wrong

RexFavilla wrote:

The fact that everyone wants to lynch Bullish makes me think he's town lol.

Being another invest- do you have any issue with 2 other invests existing? If you had to pick a number like a % how likely do you feel it is for 3 Invests to be in the game and between Casey and Bullish which do you feel would be the fake one if there is too many?

whiteflame wrote:

Helz wrote:

whiteflame wrote:

Helz wrote:

I still think the chat creator should claim. That will limit the PoE and we can do a lot with that depending on who that claiming person is. Also scum is not exactly gona focus on killing some player because they create a chat.

Bullish mentioned this earlier in the DP in #148 and Mikal can back me when I say I surmised as much myself in chat with him, but there's a more than decent chance that the chat we're in was auto-generated as a result of our both being magnets. It doesn't make either of us town by default, but it does validate our character claims.

Im not thinking or speaking about anything flavor related this game. But in general I would like to assume things happen because of roles before considering some unspoken wild mechanic may exist.

I agree, but given that everyone has posted at this point and no one has mentioned being responsible for us being in a Mason chat, I'm looking for alternative explanations. I'd be happy to be wrong.

Yeah, Valid point. It will become more likely as time goes on. No clue why anyone would hide such a detail.

I did not really take note of any strange progression in WF/Mikal's reads on etchother. I am really confused about the conclusion WF stated assuming some wild auto generated chat thing. Unless they have some kinda information they are not saying my mind is a little blown why Mikal and WF would jump to this assumption there is some magic hidden mechanic before simply thinking a role did a thing.

That stuck out a good bit to me.

whiteflame wrote:

Helz wrote:

I still think the chat creator should claim. That will limit the PoE and we can do a lot with that depending on who that claiming person is. Also scum is not exactly gona focus on killing some player because they create a chat.

Bullish mentioned this earlier in the DP in #148 and Mikal can back me when I say I surmised as much myself in chat with him, but there's a more than decent chance that the chat we're in was auto-generated as a result of our both being magnets. It doesn't make either of us town by default, but it does validate our character claims.

Im not thinking or speaking about anything flavor related this game. But in general I would like to assume things happen because of roles before considering some unspoken wild mechanic may exist.

Wrapping up some obligations. I would like to shove some analysis into this game before days end. Kinda seems like outside of mech everyone has turned their brains off. We need a hard win today. I would like to hear more discussion thats not just focused on claims.

I still think the chat creator should claim. That will limit the PoE and we can do a lot with that depending on who that claiming person is. Also scum is not exactly gona focus on killing some player because they create a chat.

Mag1cman wrote:

It was the latter part, but let’s pretend I said both

Well I feel I have clearly explained both.

Lunatic is a solid player with decent skill and experience imo. So I question looking at their claim of "I am a hider" which is a super scummy looking role. Even as town I would consider lying about that one. The fact they were honest makes little sense to me for scum. A player of their caliber would easily be able to make up a fake claim and its in my head if a S! Luna would honestly claim such a fucked off role at all.

On the other side I spoke about Luna/Casey at the start of the day. Luna shifted the elimination off Casey which makes me feel they are aligned. But then in return Casey reveals dreamer and throws Luna into the PoE. These things do not go together for a scum team outside of high end play which would be WIFOM I do not expect here. Like if it was some MU championship or something I could see the complex thought process where a scum team would make such a play. This is not that which leads me to conclude quite simply Lunatic could be scum, Casey could be scum, but I doubt they are both teamed.

Mag1cman wrote:

What makes you say that?

What part?

Lunatics is separately a question. I hate the "Too scummy to be scum" arguments but its where my mind jumps with them. Like why would such a strong player claim such an obviously scum sided role? Thats a simple thing to lie about if they were scum and they had to know it would look terrible as they claimed it.

Then their progression with Casey does not make sense to the point I have some level of confidence that Casey/Lunatic are not WvW.

Bullish wrote:

Casey_Risk wrote:

Mag1cman wrote:

As for the three investigatives, it's possible to have three because we in a 13 player game.

That being said, the time traveling motion detector and the tracker could clash a little. Possibly, will need to check some past games bc I swear I remember someone made a setup with both.

Again, it was Black Ops Mafia

https://www.debateart.com/forum/topics/12646-call-of-duty-black-ops-mafia-endgame

bro I don't even remember playing that game, and you remember there's a time traveller in it?

Also wow look at that, 3 investigative roles in that game, even though it only has 9 players.

Im catching up but I did dislike this positioning. Its very reasonable to be suspicious of 3 investigative claims even if that is inconvenient for you.

Casey/Rex/Bullish is a sus group of mech claims while Mikal/Lunatic/Bullish/Casey is a separate suspected group. I have yet to get to work on it all but I am seeing 2 pools that include Casey and Bullish with separate indicators as far as just mech claims.

Mikal wrote:

Its a discord chat

Just wf pie and myself

Hmm. Not totally impossible for Pie to be feeding the chat somewhere but very unlikely imo. I think there is a very strong chance whoever made the chat is town. I am a little confused at the choice in targets but thats something we can unpack later.

Only other option I see is if there is some kinda "and" involved in the role. Like a weird complicated jailor hybrid or something. But I would support whoever has that role revealing just to narrow down the PoE.

The Casey/Luna/Mikal/Bullish pool is something of note but also not really shooting above RNG numbers to sort.

Mikal wrote:

Basically a mason pm we didnt create

I get that part.

I am asking what the chat is. If it is possible that the chat you have is in a format where you do not know who can see your posts or if its more of a secure chat like a discord or something where that is unlikely or impossible.

The implication being that if its a totally clean 1 on 1 chat I do not see how it would be possible for scum to have the role and it would clear a slot for us.

Im not generally the "Someone should claim" guy but I do see value in whoever created the chat between Mikal / WF claiming.

They will not be giving much up and its extremely likely to be a town role imo. I do not see scum having some ability to do so with all the wild shit going on unless they function like a weird jailor.

Can I get details on what your chat is? Like is it a private discord kinda thing or is it some wild random site where someone could be watching without you knowing?

whiteflame wrote:

My experience with the Vanillaizer role is that it doesn't function as an RB for the night it's used. It effectively just turns you Vanilla for all future nights.

I have usually seen it behind other roles in the OoO. Allowing an action but then removing future actions.

Im asking host questions about it but also one of the reasons every game my very first question to the host is what is the OoO. Got a pretty vague answer this one

whiteflame wrote:

Just some thoughts on how the NP could have played out given what we know.

Scum killed Kohai. Either Helz is lying about protecting him or scum used some role to pierce the protection Helz provided.

Scum Vanillaized me. If Rex is right that I visited Shining, then they either were trying to Vanillaize Shining or me, and they used some kind of redirection role on me simultaneous to that, which suggests they were trying to Vanillaize Shining. If I visited Luna as planned, they either Vanillaized Luna or me and either Rex is lying or some fuckery happened with his role.

To be fair it would be a pretty silly lie for me to make super early in the day. Any single person who visited Kohai can verify they got feedback of their actions failing. That is quite verifiable.

RexFavilla wrote:

If we mislynch three times we lose so dreamer results are a bit iffy to me.

My thoughts are in line with that which is why in every world I see Casey is included in the PoE they created. Of the 4 Luna feels like the most likely to be town although their role of hider is perfect for scum.

I do still want to unpack the D1 train progression more.

Lunatic wrote:

So what are your thought on a strengthener and roleblocker-esque role being in the same team? Why or why wouldn’t pie do that as a mod? Curious to see your take on this.

Catching up but I really have no idea what Kohai was on about with them CCing. It makes perfect sense to me the same as a doctor and a Vigilante existing. One role prevents actions in general. The other allows bypassing prevention and redirectives and such. If anything I think the strengthener in general is an odd role for town to have and makes more sense for scum but I do not see it as possible for Mags flip to be false.

I do have the bias of absolutely knowing both exist as town but trying to put myself outside of that perspective I struggle to see what Kohai was even seeing there.