Helz

I will be pretty busy for the first 24 hours or so of this DP. Duno how much I will follow chat. But thats my starting point

I think its exactly Bullish and Shining. I do not think my Thoth read is wrong and I do not think its possible to be WF at all with Rex being town simply because they were Vanalized (fuck that word.)

Bullish had way too much certainty on their reads of Mikal and Casey. It was absolute certainty reflecting TMI and really it makes sense for a S! Mikal and an S! Bullish to hard bus in that situation knowing ones flip would look great for the other. Scum just got unlucky getting thrown into a 3p pool with 2 scum in it by the dreamer RNG. (I did ask pie and the dreamer pool was totally randomized)

Shining I feel has just been lurking through the game which is whatever. But I find it suspicious how little attention they got. Outside of me pointing to them repeatedly I just did not see any real pressure on them and I would have expected scum to see that as an easy elimination.

I would like to hear if Thoth has anything spicy to reveal but outside of that I am not sure if I am moving anywhere but Shining/Bullish today.

As a town I feel like we are very inactive. Im not seeing very much analysis and mostly the only things focused is on mech with minimal digging.

If we are going to keep going down this road it could be good to do a 'follow the sheriff' play. I feel like pretty much every player in the game could lock WF as town based upon mech. I also very strongly see Thoth as town which gives me an easy 3/4 PoE. We could default to working off that town block for a solve if others agree.

Mag1c is also never the elimination today. I may not trust them but we would be playing very poorly if we eliminated a claimed doctor.

There is also a part of me that just wants to consider going for shining. Im having trouble building a world where they are not scum in every potential.

W/T or W/W between Bullish and Mikal for sure. But in just about anything I think about Shining is somewhere on that list. Thoth and WF I am pretty hard town on leaving 3/4 scum between Bullish/Magic/Mikal/Shining

What if its actually just a wild RNG success where both Bullish and Mikal are scum together? Would account for Bullish just screaming at people with certainty that Mikal is scum and Casey is town without having reasoning that justifies that certainty.

How are Mikal and Bullish about bussing for those that are familiar with them?

(Also just noticed that they were a 1x Dreamer. I was wondering who the hell visited them N2 but I am just dumb there)

I guess weird world potential where the Auditor/Vannalizer (hate that word) had limited shots or every other day and did the kill or something and WF fake claimed? That would be such a stretch I do not think its really worth considering though.

At the same time I do feel my logic on WF being town was pretty rock solid. Checking Rex would have potentially cleared Rex and WF unless they disagree with my reasoning that its only possible for WF to be scum if Rex was scum.

This is also something that bothers me about the Rex kill. It basically super hard cleared WF imo. They are absolute lock town now. Why would scum do that? And what was up with that Banana kill?

whiteflame wrote:

Mikal wrote:

I thought he said it detected if you moved. I misunderstood then

Then yeah. Just more reasons hes shitty.

Based on what he said and what I've read of the role, it's a Motion Detector that can investigate for current and past NPs, so yes, it would detect if there was any movement, not just mine.

Ah, As in it could look into any past day phase and verify if someone moved on that day kinda thing? Thats clever. I have only seen something like it once.

Mag1cman wrote:

That’s typical around here, and probably on other sites. The point of that is to not reveal to the player they were Rolestopper, or roleblocked or whatever else, leaving it a mystery to the player.

I get it. I was just voicing specifically why I jumped to that conclusion. Being told that exactly by the mod made me directly connect "Action failed" with "Role Blocked"

Stepped back for a bit to clear my head.

Mikal wrote:

He has no risk in his role. Mine can harm. Sure chosing not to act doesn't validate what i did but he literally cant harm town and chose the most optimal people to target after everyone had already claimed.

Can you restate what your targeting was each night and why?

whiteflame wrote:

Much as I’m not exactly lauding Bullish’s choice of target, I do think that that is the choice he’d make as town with this role. If he’s scum, I have trouble believing he’d continue to lean into getting results on me. Bullish had a lot of options that were easy layups to support both his night action and his target’s or draw sus towards someone. He did neither, he basically just went for validating that I was indeed Vanillaized and therefore no longer visiting nor worth being visited. Wouldn’t be my choice, but I’m not surprised it’s his.

Leaning towards lynching Mikal at this point.

I do agree that town would want to verify the Vanalized players. Its exactly how I would use the role. I am a bit confused why he did not use it on Rex and you though.

Im also confused on how the time traveler function is suppose to work. My limited understanding is that its suppose to see back in time to any day if a player had movement which creates the question of why visit WF twice if after once at some point you could verify every single day if they moved?

Mag1cman wrote:

ok. I can see a reason to believe this, although it's not a good one. If scum has a joat (which is very common here) there will be some roles they have that never get used, or only get used once. When you get a JOAT, some roles are better than others.

Furthermore, I'm not claiming I was roleblocked either. I'm claiming that my night action failed, and if you're town a roleblock is a possibility. And there's other possibilities, but I won't reveal my cards there just yet.

Part of that comes from me asking what feedback someone would get if I blocked them and was told its simply that their action failed.

Mag1cman wrote:

Helz wrote:

Mag1cman wrote:

Yes, I targeted Rex and my action failed. That's what I said. That doesn't mean I think you visited Rex. If you are scum it's possible, but that's all I can say there.

I figured it was a way to insinuate I had visited them. Unless you were specifically scum with Thoth you could not have known I was 2x. They can verify I revealed that to them.

But there is a mech hole now where you and I have on separate days been on a target we should have protected and it died. Maybe I need to step back and chew on it more.

I would feel a lot better about you if you had suspected me when I revealed or even questioned if I was the only protective or anything of the sort. It just feels like you made a very specifically targeted claim in this critical situation.

I was giving my results. Assume I'm town for a sec. I'm going to give my honest targets and results in that case.

I admit I probably have some confirmation bias on the stacks of roles in the game. You guys have a meta I am not familiar with and same as I am paranoid about 3 invests I am equally paranoid about 2 protectives existing. Even if I was nerfed to be a 2 shot.

Mag1cman wrote:

Helz wrote:

Mag1cman wrote:

Helz wrote:

Mag1cman wrote:

Night action failed last night; I tried to save Rex by making him suffer for another DP. I’m Hydrogen, the Doctor.

The tldr justification is that hydrogen is simple and therefore allows complexity to emerge from its simplicity as bonds with just about everything else, therefore being the element Pie chose to credit with being necessary for life.

I do not see this as possible. I was 2 shot and I got Vanalized last night. Part of why I did not want to confirm how many charges I had was because I had hoped to waste a kill or one of those shots.

For your action to fail it would require some other sort of reason. I also question why you did not poke or suspect me at some point given you should have felt you were a CC to me this entire time.

Im starting to strongly see Mag1c as scum with this claim.

There's three scum, vanillize plus roleblock is possible.

And the idea that we're a CC in a 13-player game is flat out stupid.

This is egregious logic.

Its not just the doctor thing. Its the fact you claimed your action failed and I could not even have acted as I am a 2 shot. Then there is the factor you never once suggested any sort of suspicion or said anything as I pointed out I was the only protective.

If you softed something please point to it. But I feel like your claim is very unlikely on both the 'how did it fail' bit as well as being a slight head scratching of having a full on doc + a 2 shot role stopper.

You seem to think scum doesn't have a roleblocker when you say the bolded part.

Scumslip?

So far we have not seen role blocking past my actions. Your claim of role blocked is out of place. So yes I am assuming Scum does not have a role blocker.

I am thinking the fact I trusted Thoth enough to reveal I was a 2 shot derailed the narrative you were setting up for.

Mag1cman wrote:

Yes, I targeted Rex and my action failed. That's what I said. That doesn't mean I think you visited Rex. If you are scum it's possible, but that's all I can say there.

I figured it was a way to insinuate I had visited them. Unless you were specifically scum with Thoth you could not have known I was 2x. They can verify I revealed that to them.

But there is a mech hole now where you and I have on separate days been on a target we should have protected and it died. Maybe I need to step back and chew on it more.

I would feel a lot better about you if you had suspected me when I revealed or even questioned if I was the only protective or anything of the sort. It just feels like you made a very specifically targeted claim in this critical situation.

Mag1cman wrote:

Helz wrote:

I just find it very suspicious that the day we hit Lylo Mag1c seems to hard CC me on 2 sides.

They insinuate I was visiting a target who was killed when it was not even possible for me to visit as they also CC my role as well. Thoth can verify I did reveal to them that I am 2 shot. I would have absolutely no reason to lie to them about that or even tell them that without them asking.

Unless someone else wants to explain how Mag1cs action could have 'failed' they are flat scum shoving for a win this DP. I do not see how its possible unless Shining has something to do with it.

Where did I insinuate you visited a night kill?

I thought you said you were on Ref. Am I confused? Im really short on time and just posting off the top of my head while working

Mag1cman wrote:

Helz wrote:

Mag1cman wrote:

Night action failed last night; I tried to save Rex by making him suffer for another DP. I’m Hydrogen, the Doctor.

The tldr justification is that hydrogen is simple and therefore allows complexity to emerge from its simplicity as bonds with just about everything else, therefore being the element Pie chose to credit with being necessary for life.

I do not see this as possible. I was 2 shot and I got Vanalized last night. Part of why I did not want to confirm how many charges I had was because I had hoped to waste a kill or one of those shots.

For your action to fail it would require some other sort of reason. I also question why you did not poke or suspect me at some point given you should have felt you were a CC to me this entire time.

Im starting to strongly see Mag1c as scum with this claim.

There's three scum, vanillize plus roleblock is possible.

And the idea that we're a CC in a 13-player game is flat out stupid.

This is egregious logic.

Its not just the doctor thing. Its the fact you claimed your action failed and I could not even have acted as I am a 2 shot. Then there is the factor you never once suggested any sort of suspicion or said anything as I pointed out I was the only protective.

If you softed something please point to it. But I feel like your claim is very unlikely on both the 'how did it fail' bit as well as being a slight head scratching of having a full on doc + a 2 shot role stopper.

I just find it very suspicious that the day we hit Lylo Mag1c seems to hard CC me on 2 sides.

They insinuate I was visiting a target who was killed when it was not even possible for me to visit as they also CC my role as well. Thoth can verify I did reveal to them that I am 2 shot. I would have absolutely no reason to lie to them about that or even tell them that without them asking.

Unless someone else wants to explain how Mag1cs action could have 'failed' they are flat scum shoving for a win this DP. I do not see how its possible unless Shining has something to do with it.

whiteflame wrote:

Helz wrote:

Mag1cman wrote:

Night action failed last night; I tried to save Rex by making him suffer for another DP. I’m Hydrogen, the Doctor.

The tldr justification is that hydrogen is simple and therefore allows complexity to emerge from its simplicity as bonds with just about everything else, therefore being the element Pie chose to credit with being necessary for life.

I do not see this as possible. I was 2 shot and I got Vanalized last night. Part of why I did not want to confirm how many charges I had was because I had hoped to waste a kill or one of those shots.

For your action to fail it would require some other sort of reason. I also question why you did not poke or suspect me at some point given you should have felt you were a CC to me this entire time.

Im starting to strongly see Mag1c as scum with this claim.

Did you ever full claim? Especially if you are Vanillaized, there's no reason not to out your entire claim at this point.

Well I suppose now I did. I was 2 shot. Thats the only detail I did not give.

I can also clarify that I would not block the person I visit. I am not sure if I said that or not. Thats pretty much everything although I am not going to edge on flavor stuff or angle shoot on revealing host DM details.

Mag1cman wrote:

Night action failed last night; I tried to save Rex by making him suffer for another DP. I’m Hydrogen, the Doctor.

The tldr justification is that hydrogen is simple and therefore allows complexity to emerge from its simplicity as bonds with just about everything else, therefore being the element Pie chose to credit with being necessary for life.

I do not see this as possible. I was 2 shot and I got Vanalized last night. Part of why I did not want to confirm how many charges I had was because I had hoped to waste a kill or one of those shots.

For your action to fail it would require some other sort of reason. I also question why you did not poke or suspect me at some point given you should have felt you were a CC to me this entire time.

Im starting to strongly see Mag1c as scum with this claim.

I think its very unlikely that there is 4 scum but we will know shortly.

I guess I am going to obsess for a bit at what potentials make sense but fuck guys. Don't make me do this on my own. I dont care about being town read. I really need more people voicing thoughts. It feels like town has given up on the game and its rough. Agree or disagree with me but lets play

What is your thoughts on Mag!c?

A question exists of would it be reasonable for Tracker to be the only town invest? Thinking about that now it itches my lizard brain and I feel its underpowered for town. I do not see another invest existing and not blowing up their situation as well..

Pretty much every road I am looking at includes a potential of Casey being scum. Bullish could be teamed with their behavior. Casey has a claim I feel could overcrowd invests. Casey has created a PoE they are certainly in. I have not seen what I expect out of a T! Casey. I also mech question them not having a result today. If scum have 1 role thats killing and 1 role thats making people vanilla and one role thats bypassing protection what could stop their check? And there is zero reason a town would stop it. We are missing something mech there or Casey is lying about them not having a result/having that role. Every bit of this has me on them. Then there is the fact that their claim is kinda a perfect scum claim. I won't unpack that again.

I also see zero reason Bullish would not claim their action. Zero town reason to do that after they revealed. Past that I struggle so hard to understand why they are so certain on the alignments of players. What they voice just does not line up with their reasoning and as I ask for clarification as to why I get reasons to suspect but not reasons to be so certain they are screaming "Trust me I know this person is scum and they should die" kinda thing. Their claim is also a bit of an easy scum claim but not as bad as Caseys but their behavior is so much worse in some respects. Then I have to recognize WF seems to favor them who is my strongest town read.

Trying to close out an event but off the top of my head these two are my preferred eliminations. Im not opposed to Mikal or Shining as well looking at my PoE for the day. Mag1c I am ehh, concerned about but I do not think they should be a focus today.

Im not opposed to swapping to Bullish. Im also kinda unhappy at how lethargic town is and was really hoping to see more engagement. Thoth and WF have my ear and I am not really interested in Rex. Shining is an option if we just want to throw the dice randomly on a lurker but thats what that is because nobody wants to pay attention to them. Between the multiple pools I do think Casey should be a strong option though.

I will be around for a minute if anyone wants to engage. Going to work on articulating my Casey/Mikal/Bullish thoughts as cleanly as I can.

VTL: Casey_Risk

Im gona vote here for the moment. Hopefully people will pop in and voice some thoughts but I will dump mine before end of day.

So to unpack a bit more of my WF/Rex read-

Something I talked a bit with Thoth about is the Vanalizer role almost certainly being scum. I would be open to hearing from anyone that feels that role could be town but I just find it very unlikely. Then we see WF claimed they were hit first. This would reflect a decent town indicator in itself but its much stronger given Rex claimed they were hit N2. This is why I said for WF to be scum they must be scum with Rex and I was not interested in flipping them unless very specifically Rex flipped Mafia. Having 2 separate players confirm the existence of a role is substantial and I see wolves hard aligning themselves with mech on this site for no particular reason early in a game as rather unlikely as well. I do not feel either player was in fear of being the days elimination as they claimed.

For Rex I give less credit. Still would have claimed to be hit by a Vanallizer who is more than likely scum but could be that the Vanallizer was a 1 shot and as scum, making such a claim would be a great move. The world of WF/Rex W/W is possible but I just find it rather unlikely and unlike WF they do not have the requirement I see for WF to be scum that either Rex has to be scum -or- Vanalizer has to be town (Which I do not see as very reasonable)

Then there is how open WF has been with constant read walls. I am pretty certain WF has posted double or triple the amount of read walls as any other player in the game before you even consider the value of the content.

For Rex out of the Invest pool of Dreamer/Motion Detector/Tracker I feel Tracker is the most probable to exist for town. Dreamer is a perfect scum claim and Motion Detector feels ehh. Would be too easy to know a player can move and just say "Yup, they moved" in a community that claims so much. Between the three 'if' there is too many invests I feel Rex is at the lower end of that list for a fake claim.

The counter logic I see would be a balance argument that Tracker would fit with some variation of a scum invest. But then Town would just feel too weak imo for what we are seeing in roles in many respects which makes me doubt it?

On the behavioral side something that substantially pinged me was Rex's D3 post #114. I kinda expected to be dead today but if the Mafia team thought I was a 1x it makes total sense I was ignored. I have been uncomfortable with their slot most of the game and been pretty vocal about it. Then I also think about how scum would desperately want to know about that exact information from me to where I could see a natural reaction like that and I have been low key suspicious of people being suspicious of me given I am a non counter claimed protective.

Overall I strongly town read WF and I am not interested in considering Rex for the elimination today at all. Positionally Rex is a town lean while by behavior I would put them as null at best with a number of reasons I would scum lean. I feel like my analysis on them could be wrong and its less likely for Rex to be scum because of the Vanalizer dynamic and the claim situation between the invests.

RexFavilla wrote:

You should look at the incentives for the dreamer poe as well. Scum would want to take the best mislynch target to mylo. For Mikal, thats Bullolush. For Bullish, thats Mikal. For Casey, its Bullish. Yet Casey had been pushing a Bullish lynch and Bullish has been vociferously opposing a Casey lynch. Mikal is the only one pushing lynches that line up with an ideal scum Mikal endgame with night actions (fucking with Casey's dreamer) which also line up with that overall plan (Casey is no longer a mislynch target today if she had gotten results.)

I really like the line of thinking but I am not sure why its better for Casey to go for Bullish. 2 sus things about Casey is their dreamer pool and the fact they are in a crowded group of invests with the most scummy looking role of the 3. If anything going for Bullish would be harmful if their Dreamer claim is a lie and they should be mechanically incentivized to gun for Mikal over Bullish.

This would also be in a world where Bullish / Casey are not W/W which is additionally possible. Setting up such a PoE would be a clever way to bus with either flipping at some point and looking outstanding for the other wolf while at ever turn I see Bullish shouting that Casey is town with unreasonable confidence and Casey hard focusing Mikal over Bullish.

Every bit of what I am looking at there suggests to me Casey is going for exactly the target they would as scum as opposed to acting against their interests.