ILikePie5

I’m here

Don’t know anything about the theme as usual

Play

Fr its lowkey kinda degen lmfao

/in

I’ll chime in when I can to respond, but I genuinely don’t have time

Alright, I’m just going to start by laying out what my thoughts are:

When I saw that Supa flipped Vanilla and Thoth flipped Vanilla (on a side note, I was right that Thoth was fake claiming), I was almost certain that Lunatic cannot be Vanilla because I’m a Vanilla as well. But then I thought about why I was townreading Luna in the first place: his claim of Vanilla. There is no shot that Mharman gives Vanilla as a fake claim. And there is no incentive to not claim the true fake role he would have had.

However, after reading WF’s lengthy post, I am pretty sure that he is scum for a few reasons. I’ll list them from most to least incriminating. All of this is arguably WIFOM and I recognize that, but all of the pieces imo fit to make up a puzzle.

1. Silencing Supa. I think this is the most incriminating aspect. We were all wondering why Supa was chosen to be silenced out of all the people. But I think it was because of two reasons which now make sense if we consider Whiteflame as scum, which this post by Supa sums it up: 

“It's tough to say what balance could be in this game; we usually struggle in 7 games. I have some feelings about whoever claims Rumi.

I also don't think the theme is probably the obvious one but to be honest, not really sure. The ways you can divide the theme are really weird and I don't think make sense.”

The first is that Supa was the only one familiar with the theme besides Whiteflame himself. The second is that Supa at a minimum had an FOS on whoever claimed Rumi, which is what Whiteflame just claimed (and likely soft claimed—see next few arguments). It makes logical sense to silence him because WF would be dictating theme knowledge all of the DP and could avoid the suspicion that would come if he ever had to claim Rumi.

1. The Cop claim from Whiteflame and the corresponding flip flop from not roleblocked to roleblocked.

First things first, Cop does not make sense at from a balance perspective at all. A Cop + Doctor + 3 Vanillas and then scum have a one night Roleblocker who also dies the next DP and the other scum is likely just a Silencer. That is extremely weak for scum because one cop investigation on the Silencer, and the game is over. Not to mention the fact that the Doctor can perma protect the Cop and scum have no recourse until they identify the Doctor. Scum would literally have to play perfectly by killing both the Doctor first, RBing the Cop, and then killing Cop to even have a shot of winning. The odds of that are astronomical. 

Also, it’s awfully convenient that WF chose to reveal that he was roleblocked in DP3. Small but also significant is that he didn’t say who he investigated NP1. It was a complete afterthought on his part which implies that he never thought about who he investigated NP1 (likely because he couldn’t because he isn’t the Cop). A town WF would 100% reveal that they were roleblocked during DP2, and a town WF would definitely reveal who they attempted to investigate NP1. It’s especially more suspicious considering he was wishy washy all day yesterday. 

1. The Rumi claim and Cop is a fake claim given by Mharman

This one I stumbled upon when rereading DP1. Whiteflame was the one to suggest softclaiming gender, but he also in my opinion “soft-claimed” early on here in this post even though he hasn’t confirmed it yet:

“I've been thinking about how to progress this game. In terms of softclaims, demon/non-demon has a very obvious outlier in Rumi (she's half-demon) and I doubt anyone would claim to be a full demon anyway. We could do male/female, which is what I'm most tempted to do given that I think everyone falls into distinct camps on that one and it wouldn't winnow the field down too much while soft-locking people into certain sets of character claims. I'll volunteer to go first if we agree to this, since I'm suggesting it as an idea (though Thoth has already locked himself into female at this point).”

He’s basically saying Rumi is an outlier for certain themes, even though that’s his character and is saying he’s town, which doesn’t make much sense cause there’s no reason to bring that up in the first place. So I’m going to give him the benefit of the doubt and say that he was trying to soft claim here, which also doesn’t really make much sense unless he’s trying to plant the seed to gain town cred later. Now the second part. I’ve been adamant that it makes sense to give the non-weak scum as much survivability as possible because if they die, the game ends. That survivability comes in the form of a strong fake claim ie Rumi and Cop. I am Bobby (a relatively minor character). This was known the second I claimed my gender. And I’m also Vanilla (not a really strong fake claim with a bunch of other vanillas around). I sort of hinted at it last DP cause I didn’t really mind claiming (and tbh would’ve been fine with dying, but I have trust issues). It’s why I was reasonably confident that Luna was town because it doesn’t make sense to have Vanilla as a fake claim especially when I am Vanilla as well. Why would Mharman give Vanilla as a fake claim if it’s going to be sussed by the other vanillas in the game.

That’s basically all that I have to say. I’ve been typing this in the time that I’ve had today, but it’s budgeting season so I’m literally working like 12 hours a day and am exhausted. 

VTL Whiteflame

Been busy at work, I will reread everything and post as soon as I can

Hammer ^

VTL Vader

I don't get this, is the idea that we need behavioral information from DP2 in order to be successful in a potential DP3? That's a pretty strange argument from where I'm sitting, especially since it's entirely possible that Vader did something during the night NP1 and might again NP2. That would be something to go off of, something Luna couldn't provide if he's telling the truth.

Anything he said he supposedly did at night is WIFOM on LYLO

We've discussed this several times already. I agree that Celine - Vanilla isn't a fake claim I'd expect Mharman to give. I believe Mharman would give Celine with some role and that he might just toss it out and claim Vanilla. Thanks for confirming that you're Bobby, but I don't have knowledge of your role so I can't say whether or not it makes sense as a fake claim beyond just being a very likely character to appear in this game. I'll admit, I'm taking a bit of a leap with suggesting that Luna fake claimed Vanilla, but I can't say that it's obvious at all yet that one of the three leads is the fake claim.

It’s more likely than not that it is imo. Also, yes I can confirm that I’m Bobby

This is the best of the three arguments because it also comports with the decision to use the Silencer on him at all. Unless someone had really good reason to believe he was a member of Huntr/x (I don't see one beyond him being female), the reason for Silencing him doesn't make a whole lot of sense since he'd be likely to be inactive as town compared to everyone else left in this DP and make more mistakes as scum, as you say.

Yep exactly

Choosing Vader would effectively all be based on answering "yes" to the question of "did he Silence himself?" I get why you're down to these two since any vote among the three of us can only be successful if Vader's on that vote, but he would not be my choice. If both of you agree to go for Vader, I'll tow the line.

A) No Lynch - completely unacceptable

B) Lynch Vader - who we have zero behavioral information on

C) Lynch Luna - not preferred personally

Reason’s to lynch Vader from my POV

1) If we lynch Luna and it’s a mislynch and Vader doesn’t die tonight, we have very little to go off of in LYLO

2) He is presumably 1/3 main girls who I think is a strong fake claim for scum. I just don’t buy that scum would get Celine & Vanilla or Bobby & my role as a fake claim

3) He could’ve self silenced cause he messes up on talking and slips all the time.

Literally thought of all this in the last 5 minutes so please poke holes in my argument .

Pick Luna or Vader. We need a lynch today period. I would prefer Vader

I think there is a reasonable chance that Vader did vote for Pie.

And he could be scum too lol

I can start by asking why you think a main character with a reasonably fitting role screams fake claim to you.

Already explained this

Only the 3 of are on and can talk. We need a consensus and that’s either Vader or Lunatic

Love the OMGUS tho

VTL Pie

There is more I could say, but I'm going with my gut.

Then say it lol

I unvotef

I definitely think we need to lynch today. Annoyed that Thoth isn’t here

Unvote

So either Thoth is a popular or Vader didn’t vote for him. Which brings up the question, who did he vote for?

just thought of something so to respond to this again; you really think the mod would give vanilla as a fake claim? That’s like the worst fake claim ever, anyone can come up with vanilla lol. Just saying 

I was going to say that lol

What do you want to do cause we definitely should not be no lynching here

Thoth: Pie

Luna: WF

WF: Luna

Don’t Know: Thoth/Vader

To me, the Celine claim comes off as odd. She's a former member of the group previous to Huntr/x and her main focus in the plot is on keeping Rumi's identity as a half demon secret. She doesn't get up to much in the run of the movie, but her role is pretty crucial since Rumi's identity is a major focus of the film. I can see her being Vanilla, at least compared with the other claims we have on the table (would've pegged Bobby as the obvious Vanilla), but I have more trouble buying this than I do the Soldier claim from Thoth.

Why can’t there be more than one vanilla in the game?

That being said, we have to make a choice. I'd like Pie to chime in on both claims and give his thoughts. If Thoth is telling the truth, scum have incentive to kill him NP2, but they also are likely to bank on him being lynched next DP and leave him alive.

Thoth’s claim screams fake claim to me. He has been asking me the entire DP whether I thought he had soft claimed, and what was his first question to me? Insubordination. So that means he soft claimed his character and role basically. Cause there is no way in hell that Voodoo Lady story makes sense imo.

I want to read Thoth's lack of a clear role name (Luna had to volunteer that) as townie, but he could just have made the active decision to not state it in order to look townie. Both players have elements of what they've said that have rubbed me the wrong way. If I had to pick, I'd still say Luna would be my choice of lynch, but this isn't just my choice and that likely isn't happening unless Vader voted Luna already since I don't think Pie's changing his mind here.

I buy Luna’s claim, and I’ll talk about why tomorrow cause it partially has to do with me as well. Thoth as Soldier doesn’t make sense to me at all. Just look at balance. Game could’ve ended DP1, or DP2. Soldier just seems like overkill for town. Granted we don’t know exactly what scum has, but the anomalies are just too much.

I'll check in a little later and we can discuss this before the DP ends.

I guess so. My role PM says my character, description of character, and ability, but does not give a role name or explicit justification. Before you accuse me of lying because I don't know what my role is called, you know that I would have researched it if I were fake-claiming.

Or Mharman gave it to you, and you’re feigning ignorance

I'm Mira. My role is that town wins if I and one scum are the only players alive.

So your role is soldier?

It does come out of left field, no doubt. Can't say I read it as scummy, more way too in his own head.

At best it’s NAI, but by no means is it town.

I agree that it makes sense for the setup, but again, with a pool of named characters this small and the apparent split this obvious, pretty much every named character beyond the two animals is a given. Celine and Bobby being in this game, whether as actual characters or with one as a fake claim, is practically a given as were the three members of Huntr/x. All of them meet the threshold of providing a solidly town-looking character claim.

That’s fine, but the strongest claim is 1/3 girls for sure. Balance wise it makes sense to give that as a fake claim. And it’s far easier to give a fake role with that as well because they do so much in the show I presume.

That wouldn't be my MO, but I get your point. There's a WIFOM reason to softclaim that narrowly that early if you're scum, less obvious reason to do so if you're town. I'm considering it.

As scum he has nothing to lose and everything to gain from soft claiming that he’s one of the 3 girls.

I agree that he's gotten into TMI on a couple of issues, though it's not unusual for him in any of these games to hypothesize about things he's nervous could be in the game mechanics. It's weird that this was his worry, it's just hard for me to scumread it. The TP thing falls into a similar camp. I don't buy it and I don't get why he keeps bringing it up, but getting stuck on weird theories isn't a first for him as either town or scum.

But he’s coming off of a scum game where he just did that. But fine, at best it’s NAI.

We don't know what other roles the second scum has and, as I've already said, getting a fake claim that is one of the side characters is not a "shitty fake character claim," but I get your point on the balance feeling a bit off given the flip and what we currently know about the other scum's role.

Comparatively it’s definitely shittier. But we’re back to square one. At best Thoth’s behavior is NAI. At worst it’s scum. Holistically though, factoring in the eagerness to soft claiming is affiliation indicative. Combine that with everything else and you get a shift towards scum from NAI. By itself it may be NAI, but together it’s scummy. And even you admitted that his play here is just weird, but that doesn’t mean he’s town. It’s more likely he’s scum than he is town if we’re looking on a spectrum.

I'm calling it a night soon, but I want to get out a few final thoughts.

For one, I don't really buy this whole Voodoo Lady test from Thoth. It's a weird one, but like so much of his behavior this DP, it doesn't come off as scummy to me. Luna's right that he tends to be very stream of consciousness with his posts, and posts like this just seem like more getting into his own head. I guess it's directed towards sussing Pie, but it's not doing a whole lot of work on that front. He could be scum and still doing this, but it reads as null to me.

It’s trying to do something. It was supposedly a reaction test, but he got nothing out of it, and I’m frankly baffled he thought something would come out of it. And it’s a weird one at that. It’s like he’s trying to do something to seem like he’s doing something.

If there's a good behavioral reason for pursuing Thoth that really separates him from his town behavior in the past, I'm receptive. I'm not really seeing anything distinctive from Luna, with that linked post only telling me that he thought something that clearly isn't happening would get him lynched if a flip demonstrated it. I can see how it's defensive, but it's especially weird to call this out if you know your partner's going to flip next DP. As for Pie's reasoning, I'd like to see him spell it out, but he seems to be banking a lot on a member of Huntr/x being a fake claim and I'm still not clear where that's coming from.

It’s more likely than not that 1/3 girls is scum because of REF’s flip. It’s a perfect fake claim for scum especially considering one of em was doomed to die. And if the theme is the bad guys, then giving a shitty character is a very weak fake claim. Like you’re instantly going to be sussed if your fake claim was the animals. It’s practically a death sentence. Giving 1/3 girls solidifies the scum’s place in town.

It's more plausible balance-wise with what we've learned from Rex's flip, but that's about it. He did softclaim more specifically than he had to early on, but that's about all I can think of that stands out.

And that in itself fits with my theory. Imagine for a second you had one of the girls as your fake claim. You want to soft claim early cause you’re likely not going to be sussed till MYLO/LYLO. Especially when he’s being hesitant to say anything about his role or character, what’s the urge to soft claim that he’s one of the 3 girls besides to farm towncred and avoid being sussed?

The whole hidden mechanic thing also screamed TMI. Also the fact that he’s adamant that there’s a TP in the game even though it would’ve been LYLO on DP1. He either is TP or somehow knows there’s a TP. There’s just so much that there’s no way you’re not scratching your head asking why’s he even bringing this up? It makes zero sense.

Plus, I assume that scum have a silencer or some ability like that. That + a doomed Roleblocker is weak af. We already have a confirmed doctor. There’s probably an investigative role. Topping that off with a shitty fake character claim? That sounds wayyy too weak, especially if the game would’ve ended by lynching REF’s partner.

I don’t have any full claim yet and we have enough time to get it, so I think we should be getting as much info as we can first.

That being said, if I had to pick blind of roles and with my suspicions of your, Thoth and Vader’s character claims, I’d probably lynch Luna. It’s not a strong difference, but there are a few things about the ways he’s tried to narrow POE that set me on edge.

Explain