ILikePie5

Idrc if we have to lynch blind today, but we need to lynch to reduce POE on our terms.

We’re literally wasting our time with 24 hours left

Just claim dude. I’ll claim after. Don’t really care about it

Gun to your head, who do you want to lynch right now

This just seems like a deliberate misread of what I was saying last DP. Having one of the girls be a fake claim was something I outright said was possible. My beef was with your argument that scum had one or two of them as a member, which was the impetus for our back and forth. We now have good reason to believe that scum don’t include one of the girls as their actual character, though they may still have one of them as a fake claim.

My issue is with the confidence you were saying it with. Anyways it’s a moot point at this stage. I want to lynch Thoth, are you with me or not? If not, what do you want to do next cause we’re just wasting our time right now

Speaking of reaction-baiting, just saying it's a stretch to scumread you because of that comes off as a lot more polite than you tend to be when other people say things you think are stupid, especially when those things are directed at you. Like you know you got caught and you don't want to bring that much attention to it.

Leave the art of politicking to me. Please and thank you

I agree that it would be a ridiculous stretch to scumread someone just because of that. I'm saying it's a bit of heuristic evidence that can be added to your pile, and maybe to whiteflame's if I didn't townread him so strongly.

I figured the question was so weird and unprompted that you would wonder why I asked it, and then maybe make the connection.

You say random shit all the time lol

In your Inheritance Cycle game on DebateArt, whiteflame had a custom role called Voodoo Lady that could choose a player and a 15-letter word, and, if the person said that word the next day, there was a 50% chance they would be told the Voodoo Lady was town. I breadcrumbed it by getting you to say insubordination last day phase and getting whiteflame to say electromagnetic today. This is not my role. I was just baiting reactions. It's possible that you missed it, but I think it's odd that you said nothing about how weird of a request it was and said (post #48) that you hadn't seen me breadcrumb anything. I figured you would recognize what I think is your own custom role and conclude that it was more likely that Magic gave me that role than that I found it in an old game.

I did think it was random, hence the “uh.” But idk how I’m supposed to connect insubordination to Voodoo Lady. That game was a while back too. It’s a stretch to scum read me because of that

Do you wanna say what you have against me?

Anyways, my lynch pool is still between those three players, thoth, wf, and pie, I am hoping we can get some further developments to help my reads on these players.

Thoth is my top scum read right now. What bothers me with Whiteflame was his strong conviction that none of the 3 girls could be given as a fake claim as scum or not be scum themselves back in DP1.

I don't really care, I'll character claim. I am Celine.

Okay, so POE, Vader is probably the last girl, whether real or fake, which is interesting

Pie - Male

Thoth - Rumi/Zoey/Mira

Whiteflame - Rumi/Zoey/Mira

Lunatic - Celine - ???

Vader - Rumi/Zoey/Mira?

I’m saying that I won’t be the first between the two of us to state that. If you have reason to push me for that information first, be my guest.

Why does it matter? One of them is accounted for. You said yourself that the character pool is low. The odds are very likely that all 3 are in the game whether real or fake claim. I’m a male. So there are 2 girls between you, Luna, and Vader.

Considering that as a possibility as well. Luna, we can start there if you'd like.

Are you saying you’re not?

Before I go to sleep, I'll leave a Yes/No question for Pie: Do you think I have breadcrumbed a role (not character) at any time in this game?

Dont know but I need to reread. Regardless, if you did leave a breadcrumb, it doesn’t matter to me because of the fact that we know Mharman gave a fake character and role. If anything it makes you even more scummy imo

I think scum is an experienced player who either knows the theme or did research in the theme based on the night kill. My guess is it’s our or Whiteflame atm

WF has the most knowledge, but it was brutally obvious what Kohai was. It took me 5 seconds to figure it out based on what he and Thoth said and when I looked up the characters list. It wasn’t rocket science by any means

Aside from my gut feeling, I have mild but non-negligible heuristic evidence against Pie that I will get into when the time is right, probably later this day phase.

Why wait, just spit it out

As pie pointed out we still have two mislynches which is an ideal spot unless mafia have some crazy roles.

Yep exactly, and the fake claim that was given to scum has to be a solid one as well, which actually works in our favor cause it’s more likely than not that one of the 3 girls was given as the fake claim.

i will say that I will probably be a lil skeptical of whoever ends up claiming roleblocked (I actually may have been the one to be roleblocked but idk, because I don’t think mharman tells you if your roleblocked) because if I was scum and knew my role would be outed publicly at the end of dp2 I would want to use that to farm town cred. But it’s not like solid proof the roleblocked person is scum obviously just something I will be a little weary of.

Ya I assume Supa was the one that was roleblocked? But he was also silenced? Ofc passive roles wouldn’t know either

Rex's death is a surprise. I sussed him last DP, but the Doomed role is a shock. I can't say who he used it on, but that does explain how there could be a 2-person scum team in a 7-player game. I'll point out that the flip shows that Pie's theme split idea, which placed one or two Huntr/x members as the scum team, does not make sense anymore. You could argue that Jinu and Rumi are a possible scum team if you squint since they had a brief romance, but it's much more likely at this point that it's Jinu and Gwi-ma.

Do you agree with me now that it’s more likely than not that scum did get a fake claim of one of the main girls. With the way REFs role is designed, it’s only logical that one of the girls was given as a fake claim.

Yall have any results?

I think you meant most likely 1 scum, especially since two posts down you said it's probably 4-1. I agree that making one scum strong to counterbalance the weak scum makes sense, but one scum being much stronger than the other is hardly ideal game design either. I doubt that we started 4-3 or that there were 2 starting scum with a potential conversion, so 4-1 is likely, but 3-1-1 is also plausible.

4-2-1 is also heavily scum/TP sided. If a townie gets lynched, it’s game over. So that scenario doesn’t exist imo. It probably started 5-2 and it’s 4-1 right now.

It's important that I don't claim. What do you think I am?

I think you’re scum lol

Still want Thoth’s full claim here. I think it’s probably 4-1 right now, so we have 2 lynches.

VTL Thoth

VTL Pie

My gut feeling yesterday was Pie and Rex. Rex turned out to be right, so it might just be Pie.

I’ll full claim if you get 3 people to ask for it

Was hoping scum wouldn’t pick up on Kohai’s character and role, but it was obvious.

Doomed Roleblocker is brutal for scum. It means that the other scum has good abilities and serviceability (aka the fake claim will be amazing ie one of the three main girls). I doubt there’s 2 scum and 1 TP. It’s most likely 2 scum at this stage. 4-3 LYLO DP1 is just garbage game design and again goes against Mharman’s principles.

Where yall at.

I'd be interested to see examples, particularly of games with this small of a character pool to draw from. I've excluded main characters from my roster before, but a) those were in games with much larger pools to draw from, b) I wouldn't then proceed to give scum full knowledge that a major character isn't in the game along with a role claim for them.

I’ll find em when I get home. Honestly the theme could simply be main characters vs minor characters if we look at if from that front. I distinctly remember giving a major character as a fake claim from a previous game. I just have to find it.

I've already responded to the possibility of the split leaving any of the main trio as scum, which if anything seems less likely based on the small pool of characters to draw from, though... are you now thinking that the form a two-person scum team? I thought you believed it was likely one scum, one TP, in which case, why would the girls be split into separate factions?

I don’t know anything about the theme and I haven’t done basically zero research besides looking up the gender of my character just to be sure. I just looked up the list of main characters and there are like 14:

Abby Saja

Baby Saja

Bobby

Celine

Derpy & Susie

Gwi-Ma

Healer Han

Jinu

Mi-yeong Ryu

Mira

Mystery Saja

Romance Saja

Rumi

Zoey

You’re argument has a couple of weak points:

A) Mharman would only include main characters

B) Mharman wouldn’t give scum a strong fake claim in a tiny game

C) The girls can’t be a scum team, TP or whatever (I need to more research to see if this is a possibility)

Idk what the theme split could be. But that doesn’t mean it’s impossible that one of the main girls could be scum or be given as a fake claim.

I don't get why you're pluralizing this. There's one fake claim. Mharman clarified that. So you have three choices:

Where did he say that?

A) there are multiple members of Huntr/x (the lead 3 heroines) who are scum/TP and one was given a fake claim anyway despite coming in with a claim that would instantly be townread.

Well that’s the point of a fake claim right? Make someone townread?

B) there is one member of Huntr/x who is scum/TP and the rest are absent from the game, meaning whoever the other scum/TP is was given the fake claim.

Very possible.

C) scum/TP were given a fake claim of a member of Huntr/x and the rest of Huntr/x is not in the game or town.

Also possible.

The first doesn't make sense to me. I don't know why Mharman goes out of his way to give scum a fake claim if he's giving them a main character as their actual claim.

Because theme still matters. If there are only 2 girls out of the 3 clearly, they are scum.

I have more reason to believe it's not the second or third. I get that you don't have that information, but even from where you're sitting, for the second, you'd have to believe that one of the three members of Huntr/x isn't even a fake claim in this game, let alone a character (again, in a game with very few named characters), and for the third, you'd have to believe that two members of Huntr/x were left out of the game entirely. I don't buy it.

You’re making too many assumptions based on your own character it seems like. I’m not going to expand on this, but you’re coming from a narrow POV of the fact that all 3 of the girls are in the game AND are town. That’s just too easy and it forms a solid town block of 3 who will ALWAYS win. That’s against balance in general.

Since two of those people - you and Rex - are ones I'd like claims from, that doesn't sway me.

Unless you think the exact scum team is me and REF, or any combo of 2/3, then there’s 2 townies here who are wanting Thoth to full claim here. So I do think it’s significant.

I don't think the modpsyche argument is weak and you've largely avoided responding to the meat of it, but the only thing that's really set me off at all about Thoth's behavior is his decision to softclaim that he's a member of Huntr/x. That's also the strongest reason why I townread him, so a pretty weak behavioral concern loses out theme knowledge/modpsych for me.

What makes it “weak.” You haven’t bothered to explain that when we literally caught him as scum in the previous game where he literally TMI’ed the whole game lol. I’d say it’s pretty strong especially if he just got caught doing it in the previous game.

So I'm willing to get a full claim from either Rex or Pie at this point. They're the biggest black boxes of the group and getting claims from them is relatively low risk considering that it's unlikely to out a major character with a PR. If we do out who is Bobby, he's unlikely to be a PR since he's just the band's manager. As I'm concerned that Rex is going to be too inactive to get anything out of him before the DP ends:

I’ll full claim if there’s enough people who want it, but Thoth is clearly the scummiest person on the table. There’s 3 people here who find him scummy—Pie, REF, Lunatic.

Let me ask you this question. What behavioral reason do you have to townread Thoth? Cause otherwise you’re just going off an imo weak modpsyche argument

His post was directly in response to my statement that we could expect those 3 characters - Rumi, Zoey and Mira - to be in the game. He said he was one of those 3. Either he's lying or he's one of them. He can't just be some random girl (and, frankly, there aren't a lot of named female characters in the movie to begin with).

Okay, this goes back to the point I think REF brought up, that he was trigger happy to soft claim. I think you’re discounting the likelihood scum were given one of the girls as a fake claim. I do this in my games all the time, and I think Mharman does as well. I’d have to go back and look at the archives tho.

And I don't buy that framing of the theme split. Again, as I've said a couple of times now, there are not a lot of named characters in this movie. Eliminating one or two of the main heroines effectively reduces the cast down to four or five characters total, and it's just weird to include one or two and exclude the other one or two from the game. Also, by that logic, why would Mharman have any reason to give scum a fake claim, let alone a full fake claim?

Like you said if there is such a small pool of claims it makes sense to give scum fake claims even if the claim is good. Like if the split is the 2 of the main girls vs everyone else, then it makes sense to give the fake claims. I think you’re buying too much into this modpsyche argument.

Claiming one of those three is better cover than virtually any other claim I can think of.

So again, the girls are either fake claims or it’s their true claim and the theme could be the girls vs everyone else.

Considering what he softed (i.e. one of the three main characters of this movie), I doubt that it's something scum were given as a fake claim. It's possible that one of them just isn't in the game and Mharman gave scum the fake claim, but I'd consider that less likely than the possibility that the claim Kohai is giving is a fake claim. Just strikes me as a lot for Mharman to not only have created this game with a theme he isn't invested in only to nix one of the three female leads and then choose to hand it over as a full fake claim complete with role for scum.

If you believe this then maybe he’s just soft claiming the gender of his true character. Overall my point is that his softing of a female is NAI when we don’t know what the theme is. Maybe it’s 1-2 of the main girls vs everyone else

Right now, the only two people I’m uninterested in getting are Kohai (whose character and role I believe I know) and Thoth (I have more reason to buy his soft than anyone else so far). If I had to pick among the rest of you, I’d take Rex first, then you. 

Depends on what he’s sifting. Scum were given fake claims. Doesn’t mean anything that he’s softing

If we’re seeking a full claim, he would not be my pick.

Why not?