ILikePie5

Plus hasn't he been oddly quiet this game?

Hes Jewish so could be religious thing with Passover, but he literally yoloed when he was scum partner with WF. I can 100% see him yolo here

At this point, you need to reveal eveything

Right now it's looking like Thoth is going to be the lynch today. I'm okay with that, but I'd like to ask everyone here a question. If you had to vote for someone else, who would your choice be, and why?

Kohai. Opportunistic vote on Mestari. Crappy claim and justification

Im thinking additional kill functions exist if there is not a 3p with a KPN.

Vigs usually end up fucking the town more often than not.

I would 100% include a Vigilante in a game this big, more room for error

Did you try to make the number a link? You just type out "#814" and it automatically makes it a hyperlink, if you add a url on your own it might mess it up.

Lol I’m dumb thajz

#1018 from Supa is not something he has ever done before to my recollection

On a side note, we say that Mikal is not a bastard mod, but imo telling some members of the town that even if the town wins, they still lose if they are more town than other members of the town (using power roles as the game goes on instead of continuing to recruit in the late game, being willing to lynch within their guild for the better of the town, etc.) is pretty fucking bastard to me. Just saying.

+1

Still interested in hearing more from people who haven't talked much. Otherwise, my ideal scenario is probably VTNL to allow guilds to recruit more people? Certainly amenable to voting today, with my preferred target being Thoth as my primary scum lead. Open to be pitched alternate wagons if a Thoth vote isn't likely to happen.

Ive addressed this multiple times and no one seems to have read it, but to recruit accurately, people have to divulge if they are MCs vs themselves, which gives scum a massive advantage

I am not advocating for them to be the target but I will say I am not opposed to Thoth. My main issue with eliminating them is their absurd honesty. I see them claiming a guild spy who redirects recruitment attempts and has some 3rd function on top of that passive. Ok.. That sounds wild.

Thats much more powerful than me for one. I question that bit on balance. I expect Mafia/Neutral to be more powerful and that lines up there.

But in their defense why in the ever living fuck would an evil player be honest about having that power? Its an absurdly scum sided power. If I was evil with such functions I would lie my ass off before admitting I had such powers.

Thoth once claimed Leprechaun which is a scum role to begin with lmao. It’s not out of the ordinary for him to attempt WIFOM.

Right now I feel like we are basically lynching blind. Wryly hasn't popped out in my mind as particularly scummy.

Can you expand on what makes you think lynching Thoth is lynching blind?

As for Kohai, that claim continues to rub me the wrong way. I get claiming under any amount of pressure, though that's something he'd do regardless of alignment - I do think he's just sensitive to pressure after his recent games. Claiming himself as his character doesn't give him any cover, either, given that that was in the OP. As for the role and justification, they just rub me the wrong way. I don't know if I can put my finger on the problem here, but it all comes off as slightly scummy. That's more of a gutread than anything else, but it's where I'm sitting with him currently.

Agree 100%

Could a theoretical vig actually kill during NP1 tho? I'm gonna ask Mikal

He gave me a weird convuluted answer. But regardless, it’s possible in future NPs

Now I will probably be killed, but my sacrifice will not be in vain. I will go down as a super hero, as a legend as some sort of saint even. My guild will carry on and I will be the wind beneath their wings

Om Shanti 🙏

Are you kidding me? Early distancing is the best way to sell a bus. It's literally what I just did with wylted last game. 

U know very well that I would quit if I was on a scum team with Kohai lol

I said earlier that one of my abilities is potentially kinda-sorta-confirmable, or, if it isn't now, then it could be depending on how things play out. Let's say that I claimed information about your guild that I couldn't have known unless I knew it from an ability or shared scum chat with your recruit. If I did, do you trust your recruits enough that you would see this as confirming me, or would you suspect a mole? Just a yes/no question.

Whats the end goal of this question?

I like #814 from Banana, though I’d like everyone to reread it in close detail and see if yall can see what I see. The observation imo is weak in terms of AI, but in the future could be depending on what happens

Thoth is still my strongest scumread. I get that Whiteflame says it's not likely to be a fake claim for being so obscure, but then we have to ask why he has something so obscure as town. I still hate the behavior there.

It’s honestly an SOP claim, especially considering the guild leaders are mod confirmed town. Mechanically, it makes sense for scum to get that role and use it to manipulate

He would be my lynch here but 1. he has claimed a role that can be tested. 2. if he is scum, he only buys at most 1 DP. 

I don’t think he ever said it was affiliation confirmable.

May be 0 DPs bought in practice. I didn't like the math on Mestari's idea to vtnl multiple times, but with no NK, a single vtnl is pretty good. VTNLing here is basically just extending DP1, but with a halftime for night actions (and hence info from said night actions); we still have 17 heading into DP2.

VTNL is dumb

everyone else is still null, except for Casey but I haven't evaluated her yet. I still need to do that.

I would like to hear these thoughts as well

I get the Kohai read, but if Casey has failed to progress the game significantly, that doesn't particularly distinguish her from me, Rex, Banana, etc. Alyssa's "he could have learned it from Mikal" argument continues to be a puzzler. 

Difference with REF is that Luna recruited him and there are no indications he scumreads him. I don’t see anything notable regarding him anyways.

With Banana, her inactivity means she can’t inherently advance the game. Casey has been on and responding, but not really advancing the game.

I could possibly get behind an Alyssa lynch, but with three scummates talking in his ear, it's harder for me to believe Kohai would have a lackluster fake claim. If you were on his scum team, wouldn't nailing down his fake claim be the first thing you'd do? You'd know he would almost certainly be pressured for a claim DP1, and it would have to look good.

My theory is that for scum, the safest thing to character claim is yourself cause you know for a fact that nobody else has that character. And why would Mikal give Kohai as a fake character claim.

Because there's more value to activating as many abilities as possible than hiding who has them. As we recruit more it becomes near certainly that mafia is in both guilds. Trying to hide recruits from the mafia assumes we only ever recruit town and risks both guilds recruiting the same player, activating less roles.

If scum have activating abilities, the strategy fails anyways. And for Luna/Wylted to recruit properly, everyone who is themselves needs to claim it, and that in itself reduces scum’s POE.

This is such a stupid-ass thing to say. That's not how strategy works. You do what works best on average, taking all information into account. The fact that there are other possibilities isn't the point. 

It is a point when there are 16 other people playing the game. In a 9p game, sure, we would VTNL, but the odds of Vig/similar are far higher in a 17p game. Plus you don’t know if a TP even exists, which changes the calculus as well.

/in

I don't think I ever actually voted for Thoth, I just agreed he was sus.

Essentially the same thing.

Technically true, but that's always a possibility anyway. So what?

So your even/odd argument holds no weight

I never once suggested that we VTNL on any future days. I'm sorry that you lack reading comprehension.

I meant what if there’s a Vig shot or another killing mechanism in future nights/days, we’d be back to odd even if we lynch someone here.

I'd like elaboration on Casey, Kohai, and Alyssa

Sure.

Casey - Primarily gut read combined with the fact that I feel like she hasn’t done anything to progress the game. She joined the Thoth wagon and then the mini wagon on VTNL

Kohai - The pressure on Mestari seemed opportunistic to me. I also hate his claim. Ascetic is weak and often a scum claim as you know.

Alyssa - The defense of Thoth feels contrived. As if she knows he’s town and trying to justify it. It also doesn’t sit right with me that she ignored 11 pages and just straight voted Thoth in her second post for “reasons mentioned.” Just feels different compared to the previous game I was in with her

Solid Town:

Pie

Lunatic

Wylted

Lean Town:

Melz

Mestari

REF

Tilt Town:

Mharman

Wryly

Null:

Whiteflame

Banana

Vader

Max

Shining

Tilt Scum:

Alyssa

Thoth

Lean Scum:

Kohai

Casey

A lot of these are gut reads and based on what I remember. Happy to elaborate as needed

Based on your interactions with REF in your Mason, do you town read him?

But 100% we should demand people take positions and lock them into those positions so we can post flip assign value to what their position was and nail down the fake reasoning. This is the core of mafia imo.

I agree with you, but good luck with most of these people lol. I’ve been trying for years to get someone like Shining to post enough so there’s enough to generate a read

Mikal said there's no NK tonight. The reasonable assumption is that no one will die tonight. If that's wrong, Mikal is a bastard mod. Mikal is not a bastard mod. And if he is, we scream at him in the Endgame thread. QED

Just for NP1. What about the future?

If we lynch today, we end up on evens tomorrow. It's better to stay on odds.

Youre assuming there isn’t a TP or Vigilante or someone else that can cause kills