Updated thoughts:
Casey- Has some incentive to have killed whiteflame based on being in 1 of 3 of his POE reads. That combined with her appearing in my dreamer results doesn't look good. As for a third problem, her role of emissary happens to confirm a townie who is already, making it semi useless if she is town, and kind of convenient if she is scum. Three points against her doesn't look good to me at the moment, but hey, maybe it is all just a really negative coincidence?
RationalTheist- Naturally earns some town points for the early claim (this point has been debatable for many, for me early claims can be either or based on the context of them and the person, and I think in RT's case it's more of a town point, as I would expect an early claim to come from a more confident veteran player if fake). But the Aescetizer, hider, and a roleblocker all kind of balance out a dreamer which can be considered very OP in some set ups. While I am still not sure I buy all three existing, we know the hider was legit, and both RT and Rex were off the dreamer results, so its possible and likely that at least two are legit in the game, balance wise it makes sense to me. He get's points for witholding the action as well. I am not currently suspicious of RT.
REF- Ref has a point against him in whiteflames death, since whiteflame sussed him last phase and is now dead. However Mharman makes a good point in this not fitting Ref's MO from the one scum game he recently played in, which was terraria. Claiming roleblocker is already a pretty risky move, but to go ahead and claim that you roleblocked and visisted the guy who just flipped innocent, well that's just a ballsy move to make as scum. It's not impossible that ref's playstyle has changed, especially considering he lost terraria and could be looking to make some playstyle changes, but like I said with RT, the roleblocker does kind of fit with the balance of a dreamer. I still am tenative to say that balance would justify both a roleblocker and ascetizer though. which seems a bit over kill. Now if casey does flip scum, it might look good that rex was a roleblocker though, because it would explain why casey would have felt the need to kill whiteflame instead of just roleblock him, if scum actually doesn't have a roleblocking ability. Ref ultimately is still in the POE, but I think we should focus on nailing the scum in the dreamer results first, and I am not particularly focused on Ref this day phase.
Thoth- Thoth's dp1 didn't stand out to me, he was overtly chatty as usual, very active, which helps. He latched on to what I feel is kind of a weak issue in pushing RT for simply claiming a horse, but he didn't really stick to that line of logic long. He had an early town read of mikal which looks good for him, and despite having incentive to kill whiteflame, I am not particularly sold that he would have feared whiteflame enough to do it, whereas I can see someone like casey having a deeper respect and fear for him. He says he wasn't around for the day phase end and therefor couldn't have been on the lynch, but as scum I don't know why he would admit that when its a point in his favor, so the humble sauce comes off as a bit townie as well. He was consistent with his rex FOS through most of the day phase 1. His claim is probably the best reason to town read him though, he has results that mharman specifically visited himself, and mharman hasn't denied that yet. While its possible the mafia could have a scout, I not sold that a dreamer and a tracker really are too OP in a game where there are multiple blocking abilities and mislynchables like mikal. If we are missing the mark here it should become fairly obvious in time, but I think there is enough to with thoth to give him a pass for today at the very least.
Magicman- I had an early effort based town read on magic. In the past he has been notoriously easy to scum read, but when he's town he kind of kills it effort wise. I am getting the vibe that he is fairly committed to being active and contributing, even if I think he missed the mark with the mikal read. Also I don't think scum mharman pushes mikal as hard as he did if he knew he was genuinely town. I'd expect more of a passive play, maybe see him getting defensive and engaging with someone, but he seemed straightforward with the mikal read. One major point against him however is the self visit. I can't think of a ton of town roles that self visit except maybe gramps, and his soft claim to me went completely over my head. Maybe when he explains it, it will make more sense to me, idk. But mafia do have a lot of self visiting roles, primarily something like lawyer, ninja, strongman, lookout, etc (depending on how mod mechanics make them work), so it is a bit suspicious as of this moment. But he is not in my dreamer results, so at the very least I think we can wait to focus on magicman til tomorrow.
Wryly- Lastly wryly. Outside of appearing in my results, and being on the mikal wagon, the doctor claim does save him a bit. However there doesn't HAVE to be a doctor in every game, it's just likely that we would see some sort of protective role in most games. Considering we have an ascetizer its possible that works as our protection, since if ref's role is to be believed, his won't protect a night kill as it is weak. However I feel like most of the pass I am giving to him is role based, behaviorally I don't have a metric ton to town read him off of, and it doesn't help he was also on my dreamer results. I will give a noob pass for the forfeit, though it is kind of wild he did that. If he didn't think he was forced to claim any time soon he might have thought he could extend it's value by holding onto it, but thats kind of a gamble in a 9 player game where mafia can generally get POE figured out by dp3 at the latest.
Anyways, yeah I would say my strongest lean at the moment is casey, if I had to make a second place guess it would be wryly. If it's thoth I will be a bit shocked, but no matter what I would prefer to lynch one of the three in the results today. If I die tonight, please do not assume if we do catch one of the scum today, that the other scum isn't in the results as well. Most dreamer results have followed that theme of recent, and I could see pie throwing both names in to mix it up. But yeah, that's my tired thoughts, I think I had more earlier but some of them got lost with everything I read, so I will post more later if they occur to me.