Lunatic

You are officially back in the POE

Well that is extremely unfortunate lol.

I used a 1x roleblock on mago, so if the kill went through we could town confirm him. Really wasn't expecting scum to kill him. Almost used it on whiteflame, but figured mago was a bigger risk for getting lynched.

If you want to kill me tonight I am okay with it, I just ask that you be open minded about lynching Wylted if it comes to mylo. I’m not like 100% convinced he’s scum or anything, just saying this so if he is you don’t bite yourself in the ass

It may seem counter intuitive to ask this but which way are you leaning using your vig on? I have to gamble how I use my role tonight and I don’t want to interfere or fuck up with your action. If you don’t tell me that’s fine I’ll just gamble it in the smartest way I feel I can.

I am okay. However remember that lunatic put himself in the POE and is making a bunch of WIFOM arguments like

"I would never take risks as scum"

Or 

"If I was scum I would have been a pussy and rage quit after KOhais claim"

I know it’s wifom but I didn’t just come out of the blue saying it I was responding to people who were scum reading me. If you want Thoth can kill me tonight so you don’t have to worry about it in lylo, I’m getting pretty used to being scum read for no reason though and either getting lynched or not being able to cook because yall are wasting so much time scum reading me so if it helps move the game forward to vig me im happy to take the hit. I wasn’t even going to play this one, I just saw you had an inactive and felt bad for you guys. If my contributions aren’t meaningful or helpful I’ve got other things I can happily go do.

If you want a lynch so bad hammer yourself. You were gonna mod kill yourself anyway. And I have not been delaying anything, i got the ball rolling on a mass claim and then my vote has been on you since yesterday. I can’t make everyone else vote I can just ask them to and hope they do. What do you want from me lol

Dude, I'm not trying to warp the game around myself or ignore everything else going on in the game. I'm just explaining my thought process behind one read, a thought process which I figured was simple enough that everyone would understand it by themselves, or at least after seeing a very simple example. I'm so sorry that your inability to follow grade-school arithmetic makes me come off as "bragging about how smart I am". Half the reason why I'm so "stubborn" about this read is that people keep questioning it because they didn't understand what I said.

You keep changing the narrative about math instead of taking into account multiple other factors.

VTL Lunatic

Your voting me because your mad at me lol this is just a petty vote. Whose an angry lil boy now? That's right! You are!

If you want my reads, I'll post them, but you're acting like my entire approach to this game is just to repeat my daily affirmation that wylted is town-confirmed.

You've been consistently repeating the idea that he is town and then changed the reasons for why he is town, so clearly your hell bent on believing he is town, even after finding out that your initial reason for town reading him being incorrect you post justified another reason to town read him. Doesn't neccesairly make you scum, but it shows you are stubborn. Considering a few people are leaning towards lynching him its prevalent to the current discussion of who to lynch, so idk why you think I am going after you for this. If you are just stubborn about it thats fine. Like I said earlier, we can agree to disagree. But if you want to have a dialogue about it I am here for it. Being pissed at an alternative opinion is a bit weak though.

And yeah reads couldn't hurt, if you are genuinely trying to help town solve the game. I know you scum read magoroth and townread wylted but that's about all im picking up from you so far and its been pretty consistent since dp1.

I remember in second grade when I was the only kid in my class who could read silently and some other kids thought I was faking it. Even when I proved it, they called me a smartass. So I guess it's back to second-grade with you, huh?

I was never good at math, i'll admit. Not my strongest subject. I can do basic mylo math and I do it all the time in these games. It's not hard to figure out in 9-12 player games. None of your math stuff is really relevant, unless you are just trying to show off, which I am getting the vibe you are. Not sure why. Cool flex though.

Not necessarily that Savant balanced the game perfectly, just that he thought to include a role that would likely balance an effect that could change how many day phases we have. I’m appalled that none of you seem to grasp the math here. It’s just parity and arithmetic.

I feel like you are bragging about how smart you are with math when NO ONE IS TALKING ABOUT MISLYNCH MATH. WTF drugs are you on right now? Could it be true that savant balanced an entire role around you (that you can't even shoot, and that is never going to happen now that wylted outed his role) yeah maybe. Or he could have factored in kohais role, or wrylys role to balance it, or he just didn't balance it well, or maybe it swingy, etc... There's a million possibilities for how balance could play out here and you are stubbornly stamping your foot about this one that conveniently town reads wylted so you can ignore the other ones.

Typically beloved princesses/martyrs are made to counter mafia not town. Also You are assuming the game is just insanely well balanced and not accounting for any swinginess, which with a vig, we already should know this game is swingy. Not to mention potentially three investigative roles.

I know, but I buy wylted’s claim because it seems specifically designed to fit with my role.

Yeah I dont see it, but we can agree to disagree.

The protective role in this case (1) can also block a Mafia kill and (2) does not alter the mislynch math since she dies in her target’s stead. I don’t see how Bus Driver counteracts Vigilante specifically, and, again, it doesn’t alter the mislynch math since a bus swap just makes someone else die.

I am not sure what mislynch math has to do with my point, im just pointing out that there is counters to vig.

My main reason for townreading him is that his ability could redo the mislynch math so that, in some possibilities for how the game could play out from the start, my kill would not cost town a mislynch. Whether it's odd or even night is irrelevant.

I was pretty sure from the start that Savant put something into the game to 'counteract' my ability, so to speak. When wylted claimed, I knew that was his ability

There is a protection role and a busdriver both presuambly to counter a vig.

tbh I am really only placing any town read on you on the assumption your role is actually a vig. Your vote on banana was sus af and your constant unexplained town reading of wylted is a bit baffling.

I think wylted is town and scum probably won't kill him since, if he's town, they presumably buy the Martyr claim. I'm not guaranteed to hit scum if we mislynch and I shoot. It may be better for me to waive my ability.

Wasn't the main reason you were townreading wylted because he was also even night? If so did you not see that he claimed he lied and is odd night? Does that make any difference to you or are you town reading him for different reasons?

Also do not forfeit your night kill, we need to confirm you officially for you not to be in this POE. Also we can afford a mis vig after yesterday. Just shoot in between me, whtieflame, wylted or mago and you should be well justified for any of those kills.

Gonna go ahead and seal my vote on Wylted. I've been feeling pretty strongly about this POE pool, and wylted has the least utility next to mago out of all the claims so far. If I cant get any support here I am down to switch to magoroth though. But we should probably get to making a decision by early tomorrow morning at the least to best appropriate our remaining time here.

vtl wylted

Dead

Kohai- Exmar Kloris- Chauffeur- Mafia - Lynched DP1

Rex- Wilmon Paak- Inventor (1x commuter, 1x tracker, 1x bomb) - Town- Killed NP1

Alive

Magoroth- Marva Andor- Restless Spirit (Post 111, 117 DP1)

Wylted- Kino Loy- Odd Night Martyr (Post 137, DP1. Post 173, DP2)

Lunatic- Luthen Rael- JOAT (1x Watcher, ???, ???, ???) (Post 221, DP1 Post 185, DP2)

Banana- Mon Mothma - Petitioner (Post 132, DP1, Post 20, 27 DP2)

Wryly- Casian Andor- 2x Bodyguard (Post 79, 84 DP2)

Whiteflame- Bix Caleen (Post 98 DP2)

Thoth- Saw Gerrera- 1x even night vigilante (Post 118, 131 DP2)

Updated claimslist

Savant said in the day 1 OP that there were no mod-provided fake-claims, only questions about characters and roles.

See im so good at reading things! I totally knew that, like for reals totally!

Anyways, that's a good reason to suspect the unconfirmed roles even more, meaning the POE is pretty strong here.

So right now I'd say our top priority is to figure out whether or not to use my kill, and, if so, where

My two sense would be to target anyone in the POE, and yeah idc if you target me, I get it. Pretty sure we win this one either way as long as we lynch and kill within me whiteflame wylted and MAGAroth, I feel pretty safe about you wryly and banana atm. There is a decent chance I can prove one of my roles tonight if I am good at predicting what scum will do, but we will see. Gonna have to reverse reverse reverse psychology the shit out of them

I was about to copy-paste an encyclopedia entry on the gambler's fallacy, but I'm concerned that you think alignment has anything to do with modpsych. Ain't we randomizing out here?

If you read my post you would see that I am not basing my entire town read on mod psyche, just taking it into account. Whiteflame is still very much in the POE, and he's probably my second strongest lean behind wylted, albeit not for behavioral reasons. Also mods say they randomize, but I don't always believe that all the time. Like let's be real, there is certain players who get certain roles that I feel like a mod would go "Yeah, this person is gonna fuck this up" and maybe switch it up, or maybe give a role to a person they think would be good in that role. I've done it as mod, ngl, but at least I'll admit to it.

Or possibly from MAGA

bruh ive accidentally typed MAGA so many times when typing Mago, and had to go back and re write it

whiteflame is definitely in my POE, though if he's scum again I'm starting to believe the randomizer just really has it out for him. His role isn't confirmable and there is a possibility Savant didn't put Bix in the game. whiteflame was Kohai's hammer, but a bus there makes a lot of sense. The only sticking point is why whiteflame would let Kohai claim Strengthener.

Those are both strong points in favor of whiteflame. I really don't think whiteflame would be scum again after hitting scum so many times in a row but that is mostly mod psyche which is hit or miss. Savant hasn't really been around in the mafia community for a while though other than to update the leaderboard so there is a chance he just didn't about that, or put whiteflame as scum just to counter that logic, but thats kind of a stretch. Or he just rolled scum again and it really is that simple. But I kind of lean towards the "theres no way hes scum again" argument as well.

And I agree that I don't think whiteflame lets kohai claim that. Whiteflame gets cred for hammering him too, though scum whiteflame would certainly think that would buy him town cred, whiteflame hasn't actually tried using his hammer to gain town cred, so I like that as well.

I can see basically any of the other players okaying the strengthener claim though.

Anways, all this to say that I still don't scum read whiteflame, but at the same time I wouldn't be surprised if you or him were scum, because apparently all the claims are strong, so someone with theme knowledge could be on the scum team. That or they were given really strong fake claims.

If we mislynch here and Thoth also vigs a townie tonight -- and the NK succeeds -- we're at MYLO tomorrow, or else I would just say let's lynch MAGO right now to narrow the POE

Well I kind of like his restless spirit claim, I am not like majorly opposed to lynching him since he will be in the POE regardless and it would be better to kill him before lylo anyway since he can still vote there. That said I am still kind of leaning between wylted and whiteflame. I don't have strong behavioral read against whiteflame, but his role feels very "safe". As the last to claim I would have assumed he had a stronger or better reason for seeming to wait to out that. He can basically guess at peoples roles and pray he's correct, or just use it to test someones claim, its not the most powerful role and I just honestly don't get him waiting to claim that. But if I was leaning a certain way I would definitely say it's wylted over magorath.

I didn't say it's a strong reason to townread me, I said it's a strong reason to townread her. Even if I'm lying, I'm scum and she's still town.

Yeah at this point I doubt anyone is questioning wryly is town. Solid claim character and role wise. Unless it was a mod provided fake claim, and I would only consider that in a MYLO situation as she probably shouldn't live that long.

 a spymaster is a great character to make a JOAT, too. Is that his justification?

I wouldn't say that I have a justification, or a link that puts my role to my character, just a short description of who I am and then immediately followed by what my role is. My PM actually doesn't mention being a spymaster, just that im an organizer and leader of a rebellion and have a lot of skills and have to adapt to survive. Which I guess could technically be the link

Technically? Anyway, sounds like good-ish news, depending on the details

They require me using my roles correctly which is why I say technically, so I have to lock in this night phase.

That bad? Lol.

I mean, he immediately died as soon as you subbed in, so it's not like you would've had to put up with him long. I have no idea if you would've even had time to enter scum chat, discover he was going to fake claim Strengthener, and stop him from doing it. Probably not; the heat was on him and he was already at L-1.

Yeah but he was already at l-1 and I immediately sussed his role claim based on one of my roles before whiteflame even hammered. Not that I have never bussed or am opposed to it, but there was no reason for me to bus him since it was a mechanical read based on his claim, not really based on behavior at that point. If it were a planned bus you'd think I would have more going against him than just being suspicious of his role claim. As to the "really" comment, I quit all the time as scum if the odds are against me. If I have to get 3 mislynches, MAYBE i'll stick through with it if I feel I have a really solid claim to let me skate through, definitely not a JOAT claim when theres already a flipped inventor though lol. I quit as scum in Suikoden mafia because I needed like 5 mislynches and was in the POE and thoth got killed early because he ignored my advice and claimed leprechaun. I quit in supas sopranos mafia and basically stopped posting after it was clear I was indicated by results that we had 0 counters to. I have quit a few more times than that but usually only if I lose my scum mate very early or there is balance issues that make the game such an uphill battle and likely impossible that its not even worth the effort to play. I am not ashamed of it, I just blame the mod and move on. But yeah if kohai was my scum partner and pulled that, even if I did have the motivation to keep playing, I wouldn't be this active and interested in the game still, that would have taken a lot of the wind from my sails.

When I first started playing mafia you were sold to me as a known risk taker, hence my speculation. If I was misled, sorry. Not sure what you mean by theme analysis since the theme was confirmed by Savant.

This is a misconception that thoth also was led to believe when we play scum together. I am down to take risks, but I take calculated risks, risks that have huge payouts. I don't take risks that are likely to just fuck me over and give me little value, like the JOAT claim does. I can give you an example; In caseys Russian mafia I claimed faked dreamer results early dp2 and gambled majorly that I wasn't visited by anyone which would have invalidated my results and meant I was lying. The risk here was that I was actually visited and if I had been this would backfire majorly. The reward was that I ended up getting three mislynches from my results and won the game, a game that was heavily balanced towards town numbers wise. Me and whiteflame also took a big risk in killing pie in ERBOH mafia where we had assumed pie was hinting bulletproof. We were banking on him bluffing to avoid being killed and we shot him anyway. We got extremely lucky that he was an even night bulletproof, but it was another big risk with a big payoff. Anyways, those are the types of risks I take. I don't take risks that have little payoff and fuck me anyways.. Like what is the benefit of claiming JOAT here? I am still in the POE and am unconfirmed, and if I don't use my roles correctly there is a chance I never get confirmed. I would say it is just straight up dumb to claim JOAT as scum here and I would be heavily banking on WIFOM to save my ass if I am. Considering I have been widely scum read as town in the last 2 games I have played here, I just wouldn't do that here if I was actually scum.

It's an odd set of investigatives: one granted (Rex's) and two self-used (yours and mine), all of which are potential single confirmations. Would've made Kohai's Chauffer extra powerful since that would have been the sole information the Tracker or Watcher would receive.

True

It's a given that Wryly is town at this point. There's one scum left, so either you believe I'm scum and I just confirmed her as town, or you believe we're both town.

I am taking this with a big grain of salt, since you were the last to claim your role and result. Town confirming someone to gain town cred yourself (especially when they are the only protective role) isn't a bad gamble, as it was unlikely she would have been a lynch target for scum anyways.

Wylted and his Martyr claim haven't quite sat well with me from the start. Even Thoth's reason for believing the claim has evaporated since we now know they're apparently active on opposite nights.

This is an interesting take because my initial assumption was that he was town reading wylted for being even because he was an odd night role. Regardless, I still am finding wylted scummy for the way he played his role combined with his aggressive stance on getting to mylo by completely random lynching.

but Lunatic could just be yolo-ing a WIFOM grenade at us\

Yes because im known to "YOLO" as scum... I am pretty methodical and careful as scum for the most part, you can ask anyone whose played as scum with me. Also I would actually be putting in the effort for theme analysis. I was also one of the first claims on the board, so unless you think it was a mod provided fake claim...

If Lunatic is scum it could explain why Kohai was permitted to play that stinkburger of a fake claim. 

Are you kidding me? I would have rage quit as scum by now if kohai was my partner, let alone allow him to claim strengthener in the first place.

Do you have any confirmable roles

Both my other two if things play out correctly are technically confirmable.

I've been told in no uncertain terms that I will get modkilled if I do that.

Well that is unfortunate. This is an interesting role. I would say its a weak investigative but with rexs track, my watch, and your essential role cop, that makes a lot of investigations. I am open to it because mine and rexs were 1x, but its still worth noting..

Regardless POE is the same largely. I am down to let thoth prove his role tonight before pursuing him.

ATM I'd be down to lynch between you and wylted however in the POE. I buy wrylys body guard because no other protective roles have outed and we have a claimed vig. I buy mago and banana as well. What are your thoughts here?