Didn't have to pray too hard, I was 2x and didn't have any shots left going into NP3.
I had no way of knowing if you were telling the truth about 2x... or if Lunatic was telling the truth about 1x. So I called the NP3 actions prepared for the worst.
You're almost as paranoid as I am! And I did actually consider lying about my x-shot but decided that the anti-town ramifications were too steep.
that being said, in this game it actually kinda made things hard for me in NP3; I basically had to just pray Wryly: Protect Rex + Rex: Roleblock Thoth didn’t happen.
Didn't have to pray too hard, I was 2x and didn't have any shots left going into NP3.
Edit - wait, could Wryly protect me from dying after targeting scum? The thought never occurred to me.
rex did ask, I think a lot of people just glossed over it and my subsequent answer.
When? Jeez this game was so convoluted I kept forgetting who had claimed what and what happened. When I roleblocked you I kind of hesitated because of the possibility of blocking a dreamer result and went through with it anyway.
Btw, Thoth's reaction to me revealing my night action at the beginning of DP3 made me think of this:
2. Why didn't anyone ask Lunatic if he was a 1x or 2x dreamer? RT even used his Asceticizer on Lunatic NP2, I assume to protect him if he had a second dream to spend?
I didn't want to know. If scum thought he had more than one shot as a dreamer they might NK him and confirm POE for us. Better to let them overestimate the threat he posed and kill someone who had already outlived his usefulness instead of a better role that still had utility. If he did have extra shots then best not to call attention to it because it would draw the NK. One thing I dislike about the meta here is overclaiming. There's information that can hurt scum if you withhold it or misrepresent it. There's already an information asymmetry at play, you don't have to give them even more to work on.
Why would a strongman self-visit - that was what I found persuasive about it.
I have some noob questions if anyone doesn't mind.
1. Why is it bad for a doctor to waive NP1? I know people scumread it but why. What i looked up seemed to indicate doctors should play conservatively.
Maybe I'm retarded but I think you made the right move. For someone who doesn't have a x-times doctor it would be an awful move, but I think that keeping your power dry until you can do more with it is a defensible play as town. Especially as a 2x.
I'm not going to be too hard on Luna because I originally was also scumreading Wryly, mainly because Thoth's scum play was just that good. I was pissed that I was killed because I thought they would kill Luna and did a lot of iso reading in the NP. Wasted a bunch of time lol. But Thoth's behavior was spot on.
One thing that really threw me off is why Mharman had such a hardon for lynching Mikal DP1. As scum I would want to keep him alive, especially if Thoth had a redirect. I thought the only way that made sense to do as scum is if Wryly is your partner. I went into DP4 as a spectator sure that she killed me. But she did a really good job arguing and made some good points. I can't say for sure what I would have done because I asked to know who was guilty beforehand so I could watch how whoever scum was defended themselves in realtime. I really don't get Thoth claiming to have seen Mharman visit himself - that basically incriminated him as soon as Mharman flipped. Mharman was clearly expecting to outlive Thoth because Thoth was in PoE imo, only way that move makes sense. My main criticism of Luna is that you hammered way too early. I would have slept on it at least.
What didn't make sense to me as the DP dragged on was Wryly coming out and saying 'oh boy, I visited the NK as doc and they still died, what happened?' Scum Mharman would never let a coached Wryly come out with that. And if I were her scum partner, I would tell her to waive the nightkill to fake confirm her role - whether its three of four players surviving, scum wins if town mislynches.
/In
Alien
I was aware of the possibility of this ending the game but I was willing to gamble on it because it was critical to lynch scum next DP, and if Luna was scum he would probably carry out the NK to avoid his teammate from doing anything incriminating.
Could you explain that last part, I'm having a brain fart.
If Luna were scum I imagine his teammate would be out of POE (so RT or Magic) The NK target would also be outside of POE. So, if Luna and Magic or Luna and RT were scum, Luna was under less suspicion than them and would be less likely to be investigated as he had also claimed a passive role. Therefore, he would probably volunteer to carry out the NK as it was lower risk that he would be caught doing so. This way I figured that even if Luna was scum and I ended up dying I would hit the scum carrying out the NK and also prevent the NK, balancing out my own death.
The fact the Luna was roleblocked would also confirm to him that I visited him if he were town. So I feel like if he were scum and creating this false POE my targeting him would stop the NK and kill me, allowing me to be tracked to him if Thoth and Wryly were town.
So you didn't know that Luna was a 1x Dreamer, meaning he wouldn't be aware of being roleblocked at all and this tactic was for naught.
Yeah I had no idea, if he said that previously I missed it.
Also not clear on how targeting Luna would stop the NK if Luna was scum.
If the person carrying out the night kill is roleblocked it also stops the NK.
If it was Magic and Thoth I wonder what the theme split is. There's nothing apparently in common with Erak Starfollower and Gilan.
Well I'd assume at least one is using a fake claim.
I know, they could both be scum. I am still thinking I want to stick between dreamer results though and hit wryly or thoth. I feel increasingly good about you, i'd almost venture to say I don't think there is any way you could be scum, but that's probably not smart. Either way, I am not even considering you as a lynch option for today.
I'd rather hit Mharman because I think that Thoth could be convinced to mislynch me by Mharman after you're dead due to being paranoid and.Wryly might be able to be convinced because she's a noob. I also am not 100% sure about either of them but I am much surer about Mharman. Finally, I don't think a Wryly/Thoth team is possible now or they would have lynched Mharman. That means that if we lynch within POE with have a 50% chance to hit scum by naked odds but if we lynch outside it we have a 66% chance. Sticking to POE actually hurts our odds.
Which means there is exactly one scum between the two of them.
Or two
The following scum team possibilities are eliminated by there not being a lynch so far:
Luna Me - Would have lynched Wryly
Luna Thoth - Would have lynched Mharman or Wryly
Luna Wryly - Would have lynched Mharman
Wryly Thoth - Would have lynched Mharman
Me Luna - Would have lynched Wryly
The following scum teams are still possible:
Mharman Me
Mharman Thoth
Mharman Wryly
Mharman Luna
Wryly Me
Would like you get your input on why each of these five is/is not likely. Obviously from my perspective this locks in Mharman as scum.
VTL Mharman
Why would I ever lynch a secondary scum read over my primary one? My role is less important in that situation
Because it's DP1. Scum reads are almost always wrong, being confected from behavior which is itself often affected to generate activity ex nihilo. And being stuck with a hider role is a severe, potentially game-losing disability to town. The main benefit to lynching a hider is that town no longer has to deal with that possibility. That's why I lynched him. In your case, you knew that potentially mislynching him meant turning yourself into that liability, and then didn't tell town about it for the rest of the game. I could have roleblocked you and confirmed you as town at any point if this were true while also preventing you from getting incidentally killed. Leaving you alive if this is true also basically gives us a 50% chance of losing tonight even if we lynch scum. If you were town you would not want to be brought to the endgame and handicap us so severely.
Erak Starfollower, Universal Backup. Justification is that I became the new Oberjarl after the previous one died, completing my foe-to-ally arc.
"Everything and nothing." I don't start the game with any power, which is the nothing. But the everything is that I could gain the power of another townie. With my version, I simply inherited the role of the first townie to die. That was Mikal.
Wait a minute, if you knew this was your role why on earth would you lead a lynch DP1 on a person who policy claimed an extremely anti-town role? There's a good chance of mislynching, and you would be stuck with that same shitty role in that case. If you actually had this role, it would make sense to lynch someone like me who had claimed a soft-power role to prevent being lynched when I was widely scumread. Because my death wouldn't matter, because you would get any claimed power role. Yet in DP1 you said explicitly pushed over and over again to lynch Mikal over me.
If Thoth isn't the tracker and fucked with Mharman NP1 and fucked with me last NP by redirecting me or some shit who would his partner be? Not Luna, because if Luna were a fake dreamer he wouldn't put Thoth in POE. Not Mharman because why reveal a self-visit which makes him look scummy? That only leaves Wryly, in which case targeting me doesn't make sense because it was risky to use my role last night and it would be expected that I waived it. It makes more sense to fuck with or kill Mharman. Thoth is looking more and more town tbh.
What are your thoughts on the possibility of a Wryly/Mharman scum team?
Look at the game with that in mind. It's interesting to me that DP1 Mharman lead the Mikal lynch and that Mikal basically taught Wryly how to play mafia. If I were Mharman with a partner who was 100% green newb scum with their hydra partner from their first game I would want him gone ASAP. Makes Mharman's hardon for Mikal make a lot more sense.
Thoughts? Want to get your input before I act. Maybe there's something I missed.
Possible scum teams:
Thoth/Mharman - This doesn't make sense to me because Thoth outed Mharman's self-visit which looks very sus.
Thoth/Wryly - This doesn't make sense to me because I think they would have killed Mharman. They would both be either trying to lynch me or Luna or trying to bus one or the other, but only Thoth is entertaining an anti-Dreamer theory and he's demonstrated in the last game that he becomes paranoid about that kind of thing.
Mharman/Wryly - This actually makes the most sense to me because the best way out of the dreamer bind is a bus. Then kill Luna, then mislynch me. Scum victory.
Or that you both are and this is a bus.
no instahammer is great sign
It's a sign that either she is scum or you are.
no instahammer is great sign
It's a sign that either she is scum or you are.
So my question to Mharman is this, which just occurred to me when I was answering Wryly. If Wryly is scum, why aren't you dead? If Wryly is scum and she was not CCd she knows that there are no protective roles. She and Thoth were going to NK between RT and you. Why one earth would they not kill you when you spent the last DP crowing that you could solve the game? I don't see a situation where they kill RT over you given the information that a scum team like taht would be acting upon. The only situations that make sense to me are to not target you either because they fear you are being protected or because you are scum. I don't see a situation where you are town and Wryly is scum.
I asked Pie this but ofc he couldn't answer. Does the dreamer only get one vision?
Depends on if it's an x times or not it can vary.
I have some more thoughts but I'll wait for Mharman to post this rough draft of Moby Dick which he is apparently working on.
Because I'm a mislynch target. Killing Luna would confirm the POE with his flip and they want to discredit the dreamer results. They aren't going to kill the townie in POE because that will confirm the remaining one as scum. That narrows it down to Mharm or RT.
Cockblocked by my horse =(
Been a lot longer than a sec
That is the only reason that scum would withhold claims and information
*Only reason town would withhold claims and information
How would his results on me allow him to catch Mharman out? That is the only reason that scum would withhold claims and information. To contradict scum and catch them in a lie. The only info which Thoth had to disclose was already revealed by me at the beginning of the DP. The delay only makes sense from a scum perspective.
