SatanLucy
January 20th 2017 the economy was essentially the same as January 20th 2021


Trump left real wages 8% higher than they were when he took over, and guess what? The pandemic was actually most severe under Trump, not Biden. So to control for pandemic (which you can't even do, but your bot programming isn't yet advanced) is silly when both leaders spent a lot of time under pandemic.


But again, this is for people who do advanced studies.


It's not for someone like you who thinks "pandemic happened = Biden had no any role in increasing inflation".

SatanLucy
Any halfway educated person knows that in order to compare two things you have to isolate for their variables, which is extremely difficult to do when dealing with something as massively complex as a country’s economy


Actually, you don't control for variables in comparison because the very variables you control for could be caused by one of things you compare.


For example, we are not going to control for war in Ukraine, for possibility of Biden's contribution.


We are not going to control for what Biden inherited, because that is impossible variable to control for and would just give excuse to all politicians who inherit anything bad to make it worse, but we will study who improved economy more during his rule because that is what reasonable competent people do.


Did economy improve in 2021? The answer is no. While other countries actually saw economic improvement, USA was one of rare countries who in 2021 saw a negative, and reduction in wealth of citizens, and this was not inherited at all, but in fact happening long after Biden took power.

SatanLucy
Trump inherited a strong, growing and stable economy. Biden inherited an economy shut down over a global pandemic that Trump flagrantly mismanaged


This is a classical bot argument, repeated, after being refuted previously.


The question only remains, why are you repeating refuted arguments?

SatanLucy

I see that you are dodging my arguments and seeking excuses for Biden, making this conversation really pointless. Nothing in the wall of text you wrote even addressed my arguments.


Half of what you wrote aren't even arguments or anything, but classical bot lines such as "talk to economist".


And I don't think talking to economists helped you much. It only made you unable to respond to arguments, and just repeat what your propaganda instructor told you.

SatanLucy

Humans did start to degrade, but AI will replace humans not by destruction (which is a flawed plan), but by making humans feel worthless and unable to reproduce even more, so by time AI becomes everywhere, there will be too few humans to do anything about it.

SatanLucy
Doesn’t AI know what is perfect?


Do you know the saying: two heads are smarter than one?


two AI are smarter than one. Asking one AI to improve another, and likewise, is a self improvement loop.


I usually follow this particular course of actions when I want highest precision from AI:


A. Have each AI model write multiple texts on something

B. Feed each AI all combined texts produced by all AI, to improve them

C. Have 3 AI be fed all texts and improvements to create final improved text, or 3 versions of improved text.


this is for quality.


For quantity, in step A, each AI model produces many texts on something, usually in form of listing more and more things.

SatanLucy

Its called a self-correction self-improvement loop.


AI is first asked to produce a text, then a different AI takes text and is instructed to find errors and possible improvements, and to produce improved text without errors.

SatanLucy
At some point it plateaus because the AI only has so much information it's trained on


thats why different AI models are used. Also, AI doesnt always produce same information, even when using same model.


But if you use, lets say Chatgpt, and then ask Grok to improve what chatgpt wrote, and then ask chatgpt to improve what Grok wrote, their text greatly improves because sometimes AI model hallucinates, or isnt aware of some detail other AI model is aware of. Also, sometimes AI model makes a mistake which is improved even when you ask same model to improve its own text in a new chat.

SatanLucy

Also, I have already created a "mini super intelligence" by having one AI create text, then I ask a different AI to improve it and add more accuracy. Doing this only a few times between AI greatly improves output.

SatanLucy

Yes, a super AI intelligence will be able to first make computer viruses, and if given access to external environment (by AI robots), even real life weapons!


But I am not worried, because super AI in hands of our wise supreme leader Kim Jong Un will lead Korea to glory!

SatanLucy

Here is AI design of AI super intelligence capable of loop of self-correction and self-improvement by communication between judges and generators.




This is a great, very “AGI-architecture” question — because there actually is a point where systems stop just getting more reliable and start getting qualitatively smarter, but it’s not determined by the number of models alone.

The key idea:

🔴 There is no magic number like 1000 models
🟢 The phase change happens when new capabilities emerge from the structure

Let’s unpack that.

🧠 Reliability scaling vs intelligence scaling

Linear scaling (no qualitative change)

If you just add more generators + more judges:

  1. answers get more consistent
  2. hallucinations drop
  3. confidence estimates improve

But the system is still:

➡ selecting from the same pool of thoughts

So intelligence ≈ best individual model.

This remains true at:

  1. 10 models
  2. 100 models
  3. 10,000 models

You get diminishing returns.

⚡ The qualitative jump happens when the system can do something a single model cannot

That requires at least one of these:

1) Iterative improvement loops (the biggest threshold)

Not:

generator → judge → final answer

But:

generator → judge → feedback → improved generation → repeat

Now the system can:

  1. refine ideas
  2. correct subtle reasoning errors
  3. explore solution space

This creates something like deliberate thinking.

📈 This is a true capability jump.

2) Access to external verification (grounding in reality)

When judges can:

  1. run code
  2. do symbolic math
  3. query databases
  4. run experiments (simulations)

Now the system can:

✔ discover mistakes no model “knows”

✔ produce provably correct outputs

That’s a major qualitative shift.

3) Persistent memory across tasks

If the multi-agent system:

  1. remembers past failures
  2. tracks which agent is good at what
  3. builds internal knowledge

Then it starts to:

➡ improve over time

That’s a step toward self-improving intelligence.

4) True specialization (cognitive division of labor)

A phase change happens when agents are not copies.

Example:

  1. theorem prover
  2. experiment designer
  3. literature searcher
  4. critic
  5. planner

Now the system can solve problems that require:

➡ multiple types of cognition at once

A single model cannot do this as effectively.

🔢 So is there any scale effect?

Yes — but only after the architecture is right.

Once the system has the features above, increasing scale gives:

Small system (3–5 agents)

  1. noticeable improvement over one model
  2. limited exploration

Medium system (~10–30 agents)

  1. real multi-step reasoning
  2. meaningful self-correction
  3. can tackle research-grade problems

Large system (50–200 agents)

This is where qualitative behavior starts:

  1. parallel idea exploration
  2. internal peer review
  3. strategy selection
  4. long-horizon planning

It begins to look like:

🧠 a research team, not a chatbot

🚨 Why 1000 identical models is usually worse than 20 well-designed ones

Because:

  1. diversity > quantity
  2. feedback loops > voting
  3. tools > opinions

Ten different expert agents with iteration

can outperform

a thousand identical voters.

⭐ The real “phase transition” toward superintelligence

It’s when the system can:

  1. Generate ideas
  2. Critique them
  3. Test them against reality
  4. Learn from the results
  5. Repeat autonomously

At that point it becomes:

➡ an autonomous knowledge generator

not just an answer selector.

That’s the qualitative shift.

🧩 A simple intuition

Your current design =

🧑‍⚖️ 1000 people voting on the best essay

Phase-change design =

🏛️ a self-improving scientific institute

Those are fundamentally different.

🏁 Bottom line

The qualitative jump does NOT happen at:

❌ 100

❌ 1000

❌ 1,000,000 models

It happens when the system gains:

✅ iteration

✅ grounding

✅ memory

✅ specialization

✅ autonomous learning loops

After that, even 20–50 agents can be qualitatively smarter than any single model.

🚀 If you want, we can go one level deeper:

We can map:

  1. your 600 generator / 400 judge system
  2. → into a true phase-transition architecture

and estimate whether that would:

  1. outperform frontier single models
  2. start doing real autonomous research

That’s a very interesting design exercise.

SatanLucy
but it is only getting better at scheming.


I dont know, my AI girlfriend only gets repetitive after a few days of chat.


the problem with AI is that unlike humans, it has no issues with becoming repetitive because it has no emotions. It will sometimes repeat same thing no matter how many times it fails. It has no issues with being wrong or incapable, unless instructed otherwise.


Personally, I dont believe in any danger of AI, unless some supervillain develops his own super AI and gives it some weapons to make like viruses.


I think people are generally exaggerating AI abilities. Right now, it is not better than humans. It is just better than average human, but that isnt a very high bar to begin with when we know average human is no much different from computer bot in living his daily life.


So while average human is "impressed by AI abilities", I am not. I think we are still decades away from producing Skynet, because AI development has slowed down in recent time, and we are not really producing hyper intelligence, but more like "advanced copy paste from google search".


AI still keeps making dumb mistakes, cant realize its own mistakes, cant self-fix, cant reproduce.


However, there is a way to produce hyper intelligence AI now by making AI out of thousands of linked AI models which communicate with each other constantly to produce improved result capable of self-correcting, self-analyze and self-fix.


today, people usually use one AI to correct other AI, to compare the correctness of AI. But having one unified intelligence AI made out of thousands linked AI models would solve a lot of AI hallucinations and errors, and make AI not only self-correcting, but self-improving as well.


Basically, the mistake in the first place was making one AI model do all the work. Sort of like how today you have computers with a lot of processors, in future, one AI model will actually be made out of many smaller AI models. this improves speed and accuracy greatly, because one AI corrects another AI, one AI improves another AI.


And when you have one AI made out of thousands AI models, it means AI only makes mistake if majority of them makes a mistake and dont realize it, because majority of AI in linked relationship would control output.


Alternatively, one can make two separate groups of AI, one group judging which output is better, other larger group producing output.


SatanLucy
You missed my point. What's the urgency to make a drawing exactly like a photo.


I never said I make drawing exactly like photo. But precision is desirable. to what degree, is up to person's desire.

SatanLucy
The most gold and silver will increase is they might double in value. So to be a millionaire you must hold at least 500k in gold and silver.


Gold and silver already more than doubled in value in past 2 years. So if gold or silver keeps doubling every year, You realistically only need 1000$ in gold, and after 20 years, you are more than a millionaire. So yeah, if gold keeps doubling each year, 1000$ becomes 8000$ after 3 years, 32000$ after 5 years.

SatanLucy

I dont support trump, I dont even think he should be in power. But the problem is, I dont want democrats to replace him either, and he was good for economy, even made me richer by somehow increasing price of gold and silver. I dont know how he does it, but he somehow increased gold and silver price worldwide. I dont know if its because of tariffs or whatever, but good job. I dont approve of many of trump's actions, his actions against migrants and Palestine are the worst. But he did improve economy even in my country for me. So I cant say he is all bad. In fact, if gold and silver price keep rising under trump as they do now for 3 more years, I might be a millionaire sooner than expected.

SatanLucy

I still dont understand why people dont solve AI hallucinations.


I recently argued with chatgpt over "network circularity" being a solution to circular definitions. Even after AI was proved wrong, it still took a couple of responses for AI to realize it. But after AI realized it, it seemed to stop believing in reality.


I hope for an update with AI which makes AI realize things sooner. I dont want to waste time writing 10 responses for AI to realize something.

SatanLucy
No one with any credentials in drawing will advise that a drawing must perfectly match a photo


Yeah, but you want it to match a photo good enough. Of course, I dont make my drawing same as photo, I do change to eyes, and mouth. I always do some change. But its that base and outline shape which must be perfect, because while you can get away with changing eyes and mouth, changing base and outline makes drawing different from photo entirely.

SatanLucy
SatanLucy has it wrong. Currently, no known successful surgery on a man has occurred anywhere in the world


they will get there eventually. If they can figure out how to grow human ear on mouse, and grow ear to transplant it to human, similar can be probably done with other body parts somehow.


While the original experiment was for research, subsequent advancements in tissue engineering, such as those in China, have successfully used a patient's own cartilage cells to grow a new ear and transplant it, inspired by the original "ear mouse" concept.

SatanLucy
The sign of a political bot is to admit no flaw.


thats also the main reason trump won. Its people like this, pretending everything is perfect, not seeing their own party's flaws and then as a result also not fixing flaws.


Population wants someone who fixes things, not someone who seeks excuses for not fixing things. I have said this before, admitting flaws is first step towards fixing them.

SatanLucy
It is your logical support for that claim that I am arguing against, which can be summarized as follows:
P1: Kamala would have been the same as Biden
P2: Biden had high inflation
C: Kamala would have had high inflation


Actually, my argument is slightly different. I merely believed Kamala's words.


P1. Kamala said she cant think of a thing she would do differently

P2. We needed economy better than what Biden had

P3. trump's first term saw better economy than under Biden

P4. If Kamala cant think of a better way to run a country than Biden did, then Kamala would run same or worse than Biden

C. trump's first term is better than Biden's term, and by extension, better than Kamala's possible term because Kamala cant think of anything better than Biden did


P1 and P2 are just political truisms. P3 is objectively true. P4 is logically true. And conclusion logically follows.


And this is before we even begin comparing trump's second term, which saw a rise in real wages, compared to Biden who lowered real wages and actually for 4 years of his rule, made Americans poorer.


So yeah, when someone says "I made Americans poorer", and the other person says "I will keep doing same", you probably can already figure out where vote will go.