Thoth

Reciting theory is NAI. What's AI is the way you spin the narrative on those positions that are taken.

Reciting theory is extremely AI if people aren't doing it, there's no reason to expect that they will start doing it by themselves, and not following that theory is hurting town. So I consider Helz almost townlock for reciting theory that will probably help us and being insistent about it. The only way I can see him doing that as scum out of frustration that we were not giving him enough of a challenge.

understandable, given you'd essentially be handing over the decision of recruit to him

That only applied on night 0

The only case * you can make

There are too many unknowns about how quickly people will die to use odd/even as an argument for VTNL. The only you can make for VTNLing is giving more time for guilds to recruit and activate power roles. I was strongly against this earlier, but I'm down to reconsider knowing that only two of the four possible recruits happened last night.

Part of me wants to argue for an Airmax push, but I'm not confident going there for inactivity due to Passover. If we're going to go that right, I'd pick Shining. But I would really rather go after someone who has been active.

It says this in the OP too.

Just had a thought: Before my claim Thoth seemed to hint he knew some players may have themselves as their character. This is verified by my claim. That said how would he know this based on his claim?

You need to cut back on your drinking. Consider this an intervention. Mikal said this crystal-clearly in the OP and on Discord.

One isn't confirmable yet, but it could become slightly confirmable depending how things play out, in the sense that someone who claims a protective role when there was no NK last night is confirmable. The other is kinda-sorta-not-really confirmable, but it would be risky to disclose because it could heavily narrow down night-kill PoE for scum, and anyway it wouldn't fully confirm me yet.

I agree that I've gotten bad feelings about Casey, but I can't name a single reason why other than the feeling itself.

I'm a tiny fraction of a percent Jewish and a tiny fraction of a percent Native American Indian (Muscogee), so I get a yearly quota of self-targeted ethnic jokes. Let me know if you ever need a very small loan to buy a very small arrowhead.

So I take it you aren't banned from using the Internet for the whole of Passover?

Apparently the month of Passover is called Nisan. That's a quick way to tell apart Jews, rednecks, and weeaboos

I'm clueless as to why Alyssa mounted that defense, but it also doesn't make sense to me as something she would say as scum. If she's scum and you're town, she knows she doesn't have to worry that you flipping scum would implicate her. If you're both scum she'd never say something so transparent and susworthy.

I'm 50/50 between her reaction being scum trying to pocket me and town honestly defending me. Saving a wagon target is a great way to earn their trust.

Yup, I thought it was still 2025

I'm sick of people bitching about theme analysis and claim analysis and mechanics analysis. They're valid forms of investigation and game progression. If you love behavioral reads so much why don't you go blow one

Theme and claim analysis are as valid as the game makes them. If you want our meta to move away from them, you should pressure moderators to design games that reward them less.

I'd have to think about it some more to classify everyone, but right now I'd group players into:

Townlock by guild-leader claim: Lunatic, wylted

Strong town by behavior: Helz

Good gutreads: WF, Mestari, Mag1c

Bad gutreads without concrete evidence: Pie, Casey, Wryly (I've been very wrong about scum gutreads on Wryly, though)

Lean scum: Kohai, I don't like his claim.

Somewhat harder scumlean: Alyssa

Inactive pool: Vader, Shining, Airmax, Banana

No verdict: Rex

I'll keep updating my list throughout the rest of the day, with explanations for changes. Helz jumped to the top of my town pool for being insistent on this.

I just looked up Passover and read that it doesn't start until 12 April?

Kohai is the definition of dumb

That's one way to put it. It also means that he doesn't have the excuse of it's too dumb for him to do as scum.

I often forget to grab an oven mitt to pull pans out of the oven

Sounds like you learn that lesson about as well as town learns not to mislynch people way before the DP ends

The NFL used to test new players with the Wonderlic. Between my perfect score and being built like Swolebasaur, I totes woulda been a star linebacker if I didn't have chronic health problems that make my heart sound like dial-up internet from bending over to tie my shoes.

I heard a story about Darren Davis, one of the lowest scorers ever on the NFL Wonderlic. He went on vacation to Canada and put snow in a jar to bring home to his family in Miami.

So I am legit socially retarded as far as the clinical definition. I have worked on it for years and all that with over a decade of having a speech therapist teaching me how to interact with normal people. I am also gifted cognitively and am a Mensa member easily passing as a genius on IQ tests.

What test(s) did you take to get in? The proctoring event I found gave me the Wonderlic and RAIT.

I'm pansexual. Don't ask about my stockpile of Crisco.

I hard agree that guild leaders should zip it about who they recruited

If I were in Alyssa's shoes when she defended me, I probably would have said something like, "Yeah, that explanation sounds stupid, but people make mistakes [and if I knew my reputation, I'd add something like, "It's Thoth, he gets near-lynch-experiences from things like this all the time]." I don't know Alyssa well enough to say that she wouldn't have suggested an alternative explanation if she were my scummate or town legitimately defending me.

See post #373

Inclusive or? I know there are more options, but let’s be generous

Mikal said they would joint win in case of a tie.

I’m not denying that she would have sided with me if we were scumbuddies, just that she would have given other reasons.

On a less silly note- What do you think of the push on you? If you had to pick someone who do you think is pushing in bad faith?

None of them did. Maybe Casey, but that’s a minor gutread with zero hard evidence.

I’d actually rather reverse the question and say that Alyssa’s defense of me came off as desperate and reachy. I doubt she would have said that I might have heard from Mikal that Mestari commanded respect if I were actually her scummate and heard it from her in scum chat. There was zero reason for her to suggest another explanation after I said point-blank why I had mixed up Helz and Mestari. It makes me wonder if she wanted to pocket me by being the good cop among the bad cops and/or shift attention away from me in hopes of later moving it to her mislynch target.

I do have some reads. Helz’s claim might have weakened my townread on him because reasons, but if whiteflame says it’s okay then I will tentatively assume it’s not a fake-claim. There’s still nothing from a couple players. I would VTL Airmax if I knew that he were around to be pressured.