Thoth

Andor Mafia DP3

Thoth · 7 months ago

Solid point: if you are scum, then Wryly must be town because you are the remaining scum. So that does remove her from PoE short of the weirdest edge case.

Thoth

Andor Mafia DP3

Thoth · 7 months ago

From most to least likely to be scum, I'd say:


Lunatic

whiteflame

Banana

Wryly


There's a modest gap between Lunatic and whiteflame, a larger one between whiteflame and Banana, and a much larger one than that between Banana and Wryly.

Thoth

Andor Mafia DP3

Thoth · 7 months ago

By mechanically town-confirmed, I mean Innocent Child and effects in that vein

Thoth

Andor Mafia DP3

Thoth · 7 months ago

If it's just pure BS, then why wouldn't I post the list?

Because you don't know all the roles that are in the game, regardless of whether you are lying or not? I know you said yourself that not all of them are in the game, but the probability of a fake list being recognized as fake would increase as more roles kept flipping, assuming they weren't coincidentally in the game.


And technically I suppose it's possible that your role could be scum-aligned.

Even Wryly's still in your POE? How do you square that?

I think the chance of her being scum is very low, but she is not mechanically town-confirmed. To me, PoE means people who aren't proven town. In that sense, I'd even say wylted was barely in my PoE. I suppose what I think PoE means may not be what y'all think it means.

Thoth

Andor Mafia DP3

Thoth · 7 months ago

That part about Mago keeping the game alive at 1v1 is intriguing and makes me wonder if my role was supposed to be usable on night 4 if I did not use it on night 2, especially considering the flipped Martyr and possible Bodyguard and/or Bulletproof. I had wondered why I was not just a N2 vig.


This makes me think that the remaining scum probably has an everynight role or something else that keeps giving them value.

Thoth

Andor Mafia DP3

Thoth · 7 months ago

I think Confidant is at high risk of being BS, especially with the detail about modkilling being a convenient excuse to not post the list. Almost feels like trying to pocket Wryly, so funny how WF brought up the possibility of playing as scum by townreading someone.


It’s unfortunate that nobody is out of my PoE. I like to trust at least one person over throwing shade everywhere. Feels counterproductive.

Thoth

Andor Mafia DP3

Thoth · 7 months ago

If being modkilled is the only consequence for posting your Confidant list, maybe today or tomorrow you should eat the modkill and post it.

Thoth

Andor Mafia DP3

Thoth · 7 months ago

Would like to know your opinions on town having both an Inventor and a JOAT
Would also like your reads on whiteflame

I’ll get to the WF reads. Inventor and JOAT is plausible. I might do it in my games. I’ve never played a Savant game before, so I can’t modpsych it.

Thoth

Andor Mafia DP3

Thoth · 7 months ago

Would like to know your opinions on town having both an Inventor and a JOAT
Would also like your reads on whiteflame

I’ll get to the WF reads. Inventor and JOAT is plausible. I might do it in my games. I’ve never played a Savant game before, so I can’t modpsych it.

Thoth

Andor Mafia DP3

Thoth · 7 months ago

As for bussing, Thoth was the second to vote Kohai after Rex, which is an early-ish bus -- unless he was simply busy for the rest of the day phase, which is possible.

I actually was. And I didn’t really expect Kohai to flip scum. I just didn’t know where better to vote.

Thoth

Andor Mafia DP3

Thoth · 7 months ago

I didn’t even consider the possibility that scum and I would both hit Mago. I figured the lack of a second death meant scum was roleblocked or the NK was protected against. I guess I implicitly assumed that there would be flavor for a double-kill since I am used to that from Discord.


I admit that fake-claiming Vigilante, knowing that I could not deliver on the second kill, is the kind of nonsense I would pull. I think Kohai would object, though.

Thoth

Andor Mafia DP3

Thoth · 7 months ago

I tab away to play a game and now three hours have passed. What’s wrong with me?

Thoth

Andor Mafia DP3

Thoth · 7 months ago

I wonder if Luna waived the kill to pull this RB claim and make me look bad

Thoth

Andor Mafia DP3

Thoth · 7 months ago

What did Banana say her role was exactly? Maybe we should have her prove it again to be sure it’s not a JOAT with a 1x Petitioner


I will say that 1x Petitioner fits with a 1x Restless Spirit

Thoth

Andor Mafia DP3

Thoth · 7 months ago

If they did, that’s hilarious because it means they most likely don’t understand mislynch math. Guess I was just showing off huh?

Thoth

Andor Mafia DP3

Thoth · 7 months ago

Yes I killed Mago, presumably, since he was at the top of my kill list. I would have changed it, but I left for a while because I did not expect a lynch until later today.


Sucks that I am back in PoE. Bet you anything that scum waived the NK to make me the scientific name of a pig again.

Thoth

Andor Mafia DP2

Thoth · 7 months ago

I dropped my scumread on Mago. I did think his claim stood out as the most likely fake-claim, or at least I believed what Wryly said there since I know next to nothing about this show, but I also took into account his role claim on day 1.

Thoth

Andor Mafia DP2

Thoth · 7 months ago

In fairness, I did not know there was another protective role in the game when I first townread wylted for his claim

Thoth

Andor Mafia DP2

Thoth · 7 months ago

I remember in second grade when I was the only kid in my class who could read silently and some other kids thought I was faking it. Even when I proved it, they called me a smartass. So I guess it's back to second-grade with you, huh?

Thoth

Andor Mafia DP2

Thoth · 7 months ago

If you want my reads, I'll post them, but you're acting like my entire approach to this game is just to repeat my daily affirmation that wylted is town-confirmed.

Thoth

Andor Mafia DP2

Thoth · 7 months ago

Dude, I'm not trying to warp the game around myself or ignore everything else going on in the game. I'm just explaining my thought process behind one read, a thought process which I figured was simple enough that everyone would understand it by themselves, or at least after seeing a very simple example. I'm so sorry that your inability to follow grade-school arithmetic makes me come off as "bragging about how smart I am". Half the reason why I'm so "stubborn" about this read is that people keep questioning it because they didn't understand what I said.


VTL Lunatic

Thoth

Andor Mafia DP2

Thoth · 7 months ago

Not necessarily that Savant balanced the game perfectly, just that he thought to include a role that would likely balance an effect that could change how many day phases we have. I’m appalled that none of you seem to grasp the math here. It’s just parity and arithmetic.

Thoth

Andor Mafia DP2

Thoth · 7 months ago

Because we wasted so much time last dp and the start of this one. We have to make one lunch every 6-9 hours. We need to all full claim but we don't have time to dick around. .

Good morning. I’m Wilford Brimley, and I’d like to talk to you for a few minutes about diabeetus.