Thoth
I'd like to know if scum has a Janitor or because of the special mechanics of this game every NK is just gonna go poof without a flip dammit

Mikal, I did not fully understand what you said about this earlier, so, at the risk of incurring the wrath of the Department of Redundancy Department: Do you think Tir could be a Janitor who mopped the floor with Shining?

Thoth
The nk makes very little sense as shinning would have been a prime mislynch target.

I had the same thought.

Thoth

Mikal, I'm not questioning your lore-lord credentials, but I think your lore-hammer is so strong that you are seeing everything as a nail. The idea of Milich having poison that can wear off makes enough sense without Liukan and a healing mechanic tied to him. A moderator can't perfectly align every game mechanic with a justification that sounds cool.

Thoth

When I outed my information from NP1, I was not as clear as I should have been, so let me clarify:


  1. I learned that Shining was the night-kill.
  2. I don't know whether or not wylted performed the night-kill.
  3. I don't know whether or not wylted (tried to?) poison Shining, nor do I know what poisoning would have done, if it exists.
  4. I cleared Mikal beyond a reasonable doubt.
Thoth
If you redirected me to poison somebody else or something crazy you should say so I can heal them

I did not do that.

Thoth
I'm stumped as to what role you could have had that allowed you to ascertain 1) that wylted did not kill Shining and 2) that Mikal is innocent, all in one NP.

That's exactly why I don't want to reveal. Experienced scum might miss it too.

Thoth
Can you ask those questions differently and so I can process it differently and I will answer

Mathiu and Barbarossa are mentioned by name in Magic's role flip, which makes me think they are in this game. What alignments do you think they are? (Barbarossa is obviously town unless I completely misunderstand the lore.) If Mathiu is in here, then does knowing whether he is town or scum change who else could be town or scum?


Again, please keep this info to yourself if you think you should.

Thoth
If you're saying he could only have done so with the NK then I assume you interfered with his role somehow?

Reasonable assumption. I don't want to reveal how I got this information. If scum know my ability, (1) I will be at least a medium-high-priority kill target depending on how things shake out and (2) they can probably play around it.

Thoth

Some thoughts to start the day that I spent the last half an hour or so writing. Then I refreshed the thread, saw where discussion had gone, and felt the need to get that bit about Wylted out


When I said in DP1 (post #544) that Mikal needed to be on the block in DP2 unless we had solid mechanical evidence that he is town, I had a scenario in mind for NP1 in which my role would prove Mikal town beyond a reasonable doubt. This scenario happened, and I consider him cleared unless and until something absolutely scumlocks him. My sphygmomanometer thanks me. However, since I can't prove my result and don't want to claim my ability because good reasons, for town's sake I would still like indepedent corroboration of Mikal being clear, and I specified mechanical evidence yesterday in hopes that someone else would try to get some.


If Mikal is town, which I am almost certain he is, the safe option for scum last night was killing him. I have proof that scum killed him. With one death overnight and recruiting likely requiring mafia to waive their night-kill, thankfully, Mikal probably was not recruited. However, since Shining was an unknown quantity and probably winning King of the Hill on most people's scum piles, he makes a strange target. Shining was presumably Janitored, so scum can now fake-claim the role they scrubbed, on top of whatever fake-claim(s) Rex might have given them. Call that a No Shit Analysis if you want, but we should keep it in mind. This should also put the final nail in the coffin of the cult theory, on the off chance anyone was still thinking that.


The only characters mentioned by name in role flips, aside from the characters themselves, are Emperor Barbarossa and Mathiu in Magic's flip, and the way they are mentioned makes me think they are probably both in here. Aside from Barbarossa being the ultimate Scarlet-lock, I would like Mikal's thoughts about what their presence implies about the town/scum split. I would also like Mikal's thoughts on what an ability being called a True Rune could mean. Obviously, if Mikal thinks this information should kept secret, then I would rather he keeps his thoughts to himself.

Thoth
Can you at least clarify post #78

In this case, I actually can't because I don't remember what I was talking about there.

Thoth
Can you clarify how you know this.

I can, but can and should are two very different things.

Thoth

But he already did claim. Again, I was in panic mode and did not catch up with the thread.

Thoth
Is this a confession or are you claiming info on the real killer?

Sorry for the rushed presentation. I have proof that Shining was the night kill. I saw people were going after Wylted and wanted to get that out ASAP in hopes of stopping something bad, e.g., a needless claim, from pressure on Wylted. If Wylted did kill Shining, then he did so with the night-kill, not by the poison ability he is claiming.

Thoth

Y'know, by asking everyone to name their top scumread, I presumably affected their read of me. Measuring the system changes it. Good ol' Heisenberg uncertainty principle is inescapable even in social deduction games.

Thoth

There's a reason why I knew from the get-go that scum were mafia rather than cult, and it was not just the OP: "Mafia are provided with some information on fake claims."


(None of you say what you're tempted to. Don't you dare.)

Thoth

If .....


Nah, not typing that thought out. No reason to give scum information to work with for no apparent benefit, but damn that was tempting.

Thoth

Correct me if I am forgetting evidence to the contrary, but, if Mikal is scum, it is possible that he figured out all of the important thematic splits immediately except who he could recruit, and his efforts to solve the game were meant to narrow that down.

Thoth

The more I see Mikal leading the charge under the banner of lorelordship, the more I am swayed towards townreading him, but what bothers me despite everything else is his claim of knowing who scum can recruit, as seen in, for instance, post #424:


the catch is there is a good number of people who can’t be recruited. There are some who can
there are very specific things in game that directly dictate this and scum won’t be able to find it by googling it. Skep could have told them or they would have had to have played the game

I wouldn't bet real money that Mikal is lying here, but this assertion also fails the sniff test at multiple olfactory receptors. If the theme split is just Scarlet versus Toran with time being the only unsolved variable, why would this information be un-Googleable? I doubt that deep lore knowledge is needed to cross-reference a list of characters with a timeline of when they joined Toran. Whether or not this list is un-Googleable, saying that there are "very specific things" without specifying them sprinkles FUD over town like a chemtrail, and at little risk since nobody else knows enough lore to question it.


Since it's very possible that Mikal really is town and knows the recruitability split, I'm not asking anyone to delve into what that split is, but the assertion strikes me as scummy, however tunnelly I'm being.


If you are town, Mikal, hey, glad you're on our side, but your efforts to out information combined with your unique position to leverage that information tell me that you need to be on the block tomorrow unless we have solid mechanical evidence that you are town.

Thoth

I'm not dropping the hammer yet in case someone has something to add but has not gotten on to do it yet. Has there been a single post from Ultra?


I agree that whiteflame has to be today's lynch short of a scumlock. We have no confirmed scum and bringing a third-party along is too dangerous.

Thoth
they are the 2 that stick out to me but the level of scummy the above post is , is pretty glaring

A-fucking-hem? If you think that I am scum with a recruitment mechanic that only works on characters who join the rebellion, and that post #307 was a sugar-coated ploy to narrow my recruitment pool, I am insulted by the suggestion that I could or would commit such a preposterous scumslip. Before you reply that this would also be an egregious oversight as town since a scum recruitment mechanic is practically confirmed, I am under the impression that many characters in Suikoden 1 who start as loyal to the Emperor have joined the rebellion by the end and many others have not, which, if true, means that knowing someone's alignment trajectory certainly could not winnow their possible characters to an individual and probably could not winnow them enough to activate any anti-claim mechanics. It also struck me as notable and unexpected that my character ends up as a prominent figure in the Toran rebellion. This is all notwithstanding that your hesitance to reveal which characters you think scum can recruit, as in post #58 and possibly elsewhere, implies that you think the recruitability split is more complicated than whether or not they Toranned against the Empire.

Thoth

Nani? I thought I was helping a hypothetical townie you figure out the theme split. Scum-Mikal is unlikely to benefit from anyone's answers.

Thoth

Anyone else want to claim that their character started Suikoden 1 as loyal to the Empire and joined the rebellion later? Hence why I agree with Mikal's supposition that roles, or at least alignment, are cross-sectioned from the beginning of Suikoden 1.

Thoth

I have a quick hypothetical question for everyone.


If Mikal somehow dies in this day/night cycle and we learn at the dawn of DP2 that he is scum, how badly are we going to be regretting sharing the information that we did, especially given that he can give advice to his scummate(s) after he dies if post-death scum chat works like in Ranger's Apprentice, which I bet it does?


Just something to consider.

Thoth

I would like whiteflame to give a rough indication of what usefulness he can prove. If not now, then at least a little while before he full-claims.


I can imagine that whiteflame genuinely scumslipped and then claimed Yuber thinking that a third-party claim could keep him alive, at least for a bit, and this would be better than no damage control. Mikal's stated belief in wf's claim makes me think that wf did not come up with it, no offense. Modpsychers unite: Can you imagine Rex giving scum a third-party as a fake-claim?

Thoth
I've given as much info as was presented in my PM about my character in post #219.

I have been a good influence on you.