Wryly

ILikePie5 wrote:

The best way to catch Wylted as scum is to force him to claim. He’s horrible at claiming. If his claim is somewhat good, he’s either town or has really good support

If he's scum all he has to do is think up a plausible role to go with his actual character though.

Thinking more about this, I still think it's probably Mech 3 that's the lie. Think about it: Lunatic told us scum got a tradeoff between receiving fake claims and being given the ability to choose a fake game mechanic. If Mech 3 is true, there is no tradeoff. They don't have to think up fake claims, and they get to pick a false game mechanic to put in.

If I'm wrong, I still think it has to be between Mech 2 and Mech 3. I can't see Lunatic giving scum a Tailor and a free pass out of having to fake claim. That's too scum-sided.

Helz wrote:

Wryly wrote:

@Helz I'm not going to push you for a claim but I would like an elaboration on DP1 #291.

Im kinda amused that Pie can not even believe I am good enough to ask targeted questions to help me solve in a situation.

When I want to actually be try hard sometimes I can be an absolute nightmare for hosts often asking lists of 15-20 questions at a time. This game I think I have only asked 10 or 15 so far. But quite a few were about that mechanics list with a lie in it.

And if you put yourself in Pies thinking its odd they are still stuck on this after they themselves (and other town) confirmed asking the host that exact question. This is in absolute contrast to Kohai voicing a number of options given while that was information the host would not give out from a question.

To answer your question though basically my same response I gave to Pie in #155. If it helps it draws from reasoning from the draft of a guide I was working on years and years ago.

https://www.sc2mafia.com/forum/showthread.php/45881-Helz-guide-to-improving-as-a-player-Part-2-Fundamentals-of-Scum-Hunting?highlight=Guide+improving+player

The core idea was to dive into theory and identify true tells then tie it to actual examples using MU games to reference actual slips and carve out true analysis scum hunting. That was after I shifted away from breaking games with methods I later decided were just utterly against the spirit of mafia. I think all I ever publicly released was my piece on Macro Meta Crunching. But I never ended up following through as I got some specific individuals in MU pissed off and they have decided to be total pieces of shit about a situation so I just abandoned the project.

But yes, This is what I was rambling about. And I think its very sound reasoning breaking down the core differences that exist to identify actual tells which was partially the core concept Dmitry Davidoff was outlining when using it as a tool to explore psychology and hidden information within group dynamics. I just wanted to take it a step further and nail down specific identifiable tells and why they function.

This doesn't really tell me anything. I assume #163 is your real answer as to why you believe there is definitely a 3P?

We're wasting too much time on Ultra and should pursue other avenues of inquiry. I doubt he's gonna give us anything more to work with; we can just mark him down as the default lynch this DP if you guys like and move on. Lynching a vanilla isn't a huge loss but a mislynch this DP could put us at 5-3-1.

Helz - So far the strongest case against him is that he asked Lunatic some proactive questions and treated Mech 1 as "certain" instead of "very probable"? I'm not seeing it. He's null for now, with one caveat: he did catch Kohai's slip. That has my attention since scum probably read DP1 #466 with delight. But since town were as likely to want to focus on that slip as scum, that's a wash.

Pie - Hammered the second nail in Kohai's coffin (Kohai himself would hammer in the third, fourth, and fifth nails) but again, Pie would be as motivated to do that as town as he would be as scum. Another detail that's sticking with me is that Pie went out of his way to signal that he was a feminist character pretty early on in DP1, which is completely unlike him in my experience. He's only ever willing to commit to vague, broad soft claims, and only if everyone else is doing it.

whiteflame - Eternally null. Softed early, says he has good reason to. I originally was suspicious of everyone who softed early because if Mech 3 was the lie then scum have incentive to soft early; with doubt cast on whether there is a theme split, straight soft claiming early is a no-risk, moderate-reward tactic. But I can't put all my eggs in the "mech 3 was the lie" basket.

wylted - I'm not gonna push him for an inactivity claim when he's been active since he took over the slot. Only thing against him is he jumped on the Kohai wagon late. Being trigger-happy is NAI for him. Null.

Meowmix - New guy is hard to read but I'm eyeballing him.

Rex - Hasn't been active enough. Paranoia making me question if the Pie/Rex "Really, would you like to try again?" reaction test was mere theater, but paranoia be like that.

Mikal - He put the squeeze on Kohai even before the slip and Kohai is just an easy target for scum to squeeze. Kept us all talking about all that OOG shit with Kohai and Thoth's complaints way too long, which is something he would definitely do as scum to keep town spinning its wheels. Even posted what looked like a direct quote from his DM with Luna, although Luna told me it was not a direct copy & paste. He did answer Banana's question and hard stated he wins with the town, which indicates he's either town or scum decided she would die tonight then and there. I don't buy scum!Mikal not being wary of a Lie Detector there.

Thoth - Dodged Banana's "do you win with town" question, has been coasting a lil bit, hopped on Kohai's wagon late. I'd be okay with applying pressure to this slot.

ILikePie5 wrote:

Can we please put votes on Helz and force him to full claim. He’s clearly coming from an informed perspective whether that be the TP statement or the one about scum choosing from a list.

I don't think the latter is relevant since it would be in character for Helz to ask Lunatic questions about how scum were allowed to create the fake mechanic.

@Helz I'm not going to push you for a claim but I would like an elaboration on DP1 #291.

Thoth wrote:

I don't mean to criticize the habit of looking to past games for information, but I think we should all keep in mind that there's no rulebook for game hosts on here, and we are free to design our roles however we want.

Precedent is the only context we have with which to weigh modding probabilities, and is particularly salient considering what Pie said in #107.

whiteflame wrote:

Helz wrote:

Im really against us just claiming for no reason right now. Could we just not? Its D2 and yet again a huge portion of players have claimed all over the place.

If I didn’t feel like mine was already very obvious, I wouldn’t have done it. I agree we should keep claims to a minimum, it’s the reason I didn’t even want Ultra to claim.

You said last DP that there was a "reason you softed." Can you elaborate?

Helz wrote:

Im getting an understanding that here Tailors do not generally touch alignment. I figured thats more of the norm on many sites

Depends. In Chicago Bears mafia the Tailor could not affect alignment. In Alien mafia whiteflame tailored Casey from town to 3P.

Helz wrote:

Well, sense chats not moving much I will unpack my tailor reasoning. I will break it down into 2 pieces. The role flip and if Kohai could be town.

Kohai-

For starters I truly do not see how Kohai could be town. I flatly do not believe it. Lets unpack their behavior

The slip-

Initially they say scum got to choose from 3 options for the fake mechanic

I call this out as a hard scum slip. Pie and someone else verify they had followed up and asked the host and were not given any info on an amount of things to pick from.

They react saying it was an RT; but at the same time they crash out hard and emotionally loosing their shit. This I immediately called bullshit on because if it was a reaction test their trap snapped shut and they should be happy that their plan succeeded and move onto the next part.

They later claim it was actually a lie. Well yeah, I figured that out immediately given their reaction to being called out. I figure they did not have a choice but to reveal that.

Then they say it was a hallucination. Im unsure what that's suppose to mean but they had claimed VT and this is the third time their story changes.

The Role-

This looks like it was custom written to address the concerns voiced during D1.

"if I don’t feel you are making an effort to act drunk you will die (not as a modkill but as a game mechanic)"

Really? This feels super targeted to the entire huge deal we were talking about over and over of if it was too vague of a request to the point its a little bit bastard followed by the questions of "Would Luna do a modkill right after how they felt about the modkills last game?

Then the wording of it just feels different than my card.

Then there was the evolution of the drunk stuff where at the end they were saying that they only needed to say a few words with what I find really suspicious. (Again their post 703 on D1)

Two be kleae Luna did state thattt it really only had to be une or two words. Ive beeen a bit tooo deeeo into my karacter.

+My autistik brain enterpreted to mean every post

But wait.. The role flip we see flatly says "You are basically a vanilla, but must post like a drunk, using slurred language or gibberish in all of your posts."

Sooo.. What was there to interpret? Also that bit makes the role seem even more unreasonable and unfun. I could get a requirement to act a bit drunk but in literally every single post? Thats a holy shit level of fucked up. Would Lunatic even do something like that to a player?

We can dig into tailor or not but I am really struggling to see how Kohai could possibly have been town to the point I think its much more likely they were simply tailored.

Regarding the slip, yes it's baffling behavior as town, but also not beyond the realm of possibility for Kohai. We shouldn't treat it as impossible.

If they have a Tailor, I just question whether it would be using it to its fullest potential by just tailoring a dead scummate. Does that create maximum chaos for town? The only way I could see it happening is if Mech 3 is actually the lie and they really, really don't want us to see scum flips because there really is a theme. Even that is a little too much for me to believe on top of Lunatic letting scum influence EOD alignment reveals.

Regarding the modpsych that Luna wouldn't want another modkill role after he was modkilled, see whiteflame's DP1 #351. There's an equally plausible modpsych that he would want to put a drunkvoice role in after last game.

Helz wrote:

Wryly wrote:

I can't believe Kohai was innocent. Where did the number three pop into his head from? Why tf did he change his story? It's like he was trying to get lynched.

I literally do not believe it. Just no

I have to agree with whiteflame that allowing the Tailor to influence EOD alignment flips would verge on bastard.

ILikePie5 wrote:

Ultracrepidarian wrote:

Explain the Helz vote?

Only a few people could’ve seen the Wryly thing. He’s the person that comes to mind that I don’t town read plus find interesting that he asked Luna specifically if scum made the lie or not

The Wryly thing?

ILikePie5 wrote:

I don’t buy Owen NKing Banana. Doesn’t make sense from a strategic perspective, and he’s dumb. Idt he would’ve realized what Banana was doing with the lie detector

He has 1-2 scummates.

I'm just too fried to do this today. My head's not there. I'll check in later.

I can't believe Kohai was innocent. Where did the number three pop into his head from? Why tf did he change his story? It's like he was trying to get lynched.

whiteflame wrote:

Helz wrote:

On that subject I call absolute bullshit to that role card and Kohai flipping innocent. I feel that is pretty obvious but would like to hear others thoughts before I unpack why.

That means to me that there is a split in flavor as the mechanic thats a lie.

So... explain this to me. Are you saying that the Tailor was used during DP1? Because he flipped innocent during the DP. Yeah, we got his flip today, but Luna straight up said he was innocent last DP. I've played in games where Luna has used a Tailor before - hell, I've been that Tailor - and having one where the Tailor is used during the DP, the mod outright confirms he was innocent, and flip also confirms it is hard to believe.

I asked Luna last night if he would ever implement a Tailor whose power could influence the EOD alignment flip, but naturally he would not answer.

I just can't see a world where town Kohai pulls the number three out of nowhere, without Lunatic even mentioning anything to him about numbers, then panics and says he lied on purpose, panics again and says it was a misunderstanding, then VTLs himself. I was told self-voting is something scum do more often than town, as well.

We should get a claim from Ultra today.

Banana wrote:

i have said b4 why i town read him, but tl;dr version is i dont think he goes thru the effort doing this as scum, i dont see how it helps him at all, its not like anyone was ever townreading him for it. it just muddies water about him for no reason. the strategy just makes no sense, it seems more likely its real. second he caught onto ultras post too. i did an ultra iso and it just read like lurking, being online but not saying anything, waiting to see how things happen, then he just omguses me and kohai for pressuring him, the stalling of his claim, etc, kohai saw all this too which looks good to me.

Why do you think he shifted his position from "I was going for a calculated reaction test" to "I misunderstood Lunatic I'm too dumb for mafia"?

Banana wrote:

its not about right and wrong, his lynch is prolly gona happen, just want there to be some effort going into what we do if we are wrong. who is scum on this wagon and why? how many ppl get to use the pass of "we lynched him cuz dumb"? every1? or just some ppl? what do we gain from coming to the conclusion we were wrong and it was just kohais fault, not ours. just want to get effort from more ppl. casey and mago barely posted and ultra is very sus.

If Kohai turns out to just be inept town, we gain little from it. It's as likely for town to jump on his "they got 3 options" thing as it is for scum to jump on it. Everyone will use the "we lynched him cuz dumb" pass.

I'm fine pressuring Ultra as well, and waiting for Casey and Mago to post.

Thoth wrote:

Honestly, I think that appealing to, “it’s an outside possibility, but we should act as though it’s a serious risk”, is the archetypal scumtell, and not just from Banana.

This is true, but I also question Banana being this overtly supportive of Kohai as his scummate. It makes me think she's either genuinely doubting the evidence, which seems unlikely also, or that she's doing what she did in Solo Leveling mafia when Helz's mislynch was imminent, and supporting a doomed townie to farm towncred -- but that would mean Kohai is town, which seems even unlikelier. I don't like any of these options.

Banana wrote:

does scum kohai whose voting himself bother keeping up the drunk schtick? whats the point if he is already thinking he’s doomed? why isn’t it possible he’s just town and made a mistake

Abandoning the drunk shtick now would only confirm his guilt and eliminate any possibility of averting a lynch. A self-vote can be unvoted; nothing can erase the evidence of abandoning drunkvoice completely and not getting modkilled.

That said, I'm open to hearing arguments that I'm wrong. As I see it, he got caught in a lie about what the moderator told him, admitted it was a lie, said it was a reaction test, failed to say what he gleaned from said test, then changed his story and said he just misunderstood Lunatic. How does this add up to innocence?

UNVOTE

I'll follow Helz's lead here.

Hey, don't say that! I'd be legit sad if you quit mafia.

Kohai wrote:

Banana wrote:

if kohai is town I think there is scum in helz/mikal/wryly who are all pushing this logic pretty heavy

Agreeed. I ammm so fvcking tempted to just post mey role PM nd modkill myvelf, but I dunt think dat would be fair to luna or otherz.

Truth be told, I'm just a fvcking autistic retard and am completely dune with mafia. I kompletely misr3ad whut luna. st@ted to me.

@ least my lycnh will give tuwn valuable info.

im just gonna stick to cocding nd deb8s. I'm way too autistick for mafia

First you said you deliberately lied as a reaction test, now you're saying you just misread what Luna told you.

Banana wrote:

i don’t see how they are connected even if we buy it is a slip. Kohai publicly said Mikal edited a post and then Thoth made a joke about it. how does that indicate them being in a pm

Are you asking my personal opinion? I don't think it does indicate it.

Banana wrote:

Wryly wrote:

*massages temples*

We are already giving this Discord exchange more oxygen than it should be given. I'm now in a position where I have to wonder whether Kohai and Thoth were discussing Mikal's post edit in scumchat or Mikal is scum and characteristically grabbing any OOG branch he can to whack town over with. OOG discussions shouldn't be tipping the scales for me like this.

i say we ignore it entirely

Will be hard to do now that we have a bead on Kohai -- he's already indicating it confirms the Kohai-Thoth connection. Probably won't let it go.

Where you at queens

Helz wrote:

1 day 13 hours. We could slow walk the hammer and keep sorting.

Depends how much we'll really get out of it. Remaining scum is just gonna jump on the Kohai wagon now cuz they know he's going down.

Kohai wrote:

ftr i kompletely li3d about de number. Luna did n0t give me de exakt number. I w@nted to tst for reaktions. Dat sa!d de first p@rt is tru

Mm-hmm, mm-hmm, fr fr fr

So now I'm wondering if Helz is right and it's #5.

Casey has yet to chime in and Mago and Ultra have been underactive so I hate to tie this up too early but yeah. Kohai.

Lol he wouldn't tell me how many choices they got either.

VTL: Kohai