ur cop results are your entire reason for this poe arg
Sorry, to clarify: I don't think there's a good argument to make that mechanics analysis is meaningless here just because I got an inno on Alyssa and a guilty on Pie. A Lawyer explains the inno on Alyssa and the guilty on Pie was because Mikal didn't tell me the opposing guild investigates as guilty.
I confirmed with Mikal that my JK processes before Redirector or Deflector, meaning she couldn’t have interfered with my action. It would have to be here partner. With the way Alyssa showed innocent, she was probably Lawyered. 1+1=2 = Banana prob has Lawyer
Ah ty.
So her partner redirected you and carried out the NK. And her partner is (presumably?) the Ant King, since Alyssa was lawyered before she died.
I think the only mechanics that have been untrustworthy are my Cop results, and I don't think they've even been especially untrustworthy so much as Mikal withheld really important details. If I'd known the opposing guild always investigated as guilty I would never have investigated anyone I thought was in the Hunters.
Sorry that must've been annoying for a minute there
my bad Banana lemme change my pfp back
I think Banana is basically outted at this point. I doubt she’s the Redirector/Deflector. Makes more sense that she’s a Lawyer with the innocent on Alyssa
Can you elaborate on this btw
anything is possible. i no longer trust any results or actions in this game beyond pie being mod confirmed as its only led us down the wrong path.
"Anything is possible" is not really an analysis of the mechanics or an attempt to explain the data as they stand.
Regarding awesome and Rex, can I at least get your opinion of #174
iirc it wasn't confirmed that magic was town and ppl were suspect if he was even poisoned at that point. there no reason to think that is the better play unless you just want to believe the narrative that scum have no incentive to kill confirmed town for some reason
I don't think the public paranoia that Mag1c was just doctorhunting was enough to dissuade scum from their diversion play. They still knew there was a decent chance the Doctor would go for the poison heal, and he did. In comparison, on NP3 there was like no reason why Vader wouldn't protect Pie.
i made this point already but it seems incredibly dumb that people are dismissing that pie would have been a nk target when the first night phase luna was killed. they are clearly targeting confirmed town despite the risk of protection, but somehow pie is exempt from that
But they knew that targeting Luna had a good margin for success because they had poisoned Mag1c. Solid chance the Doctor would heal Mag1c instead of protecting. That reasoning didn't apply to NP3. No reason for the Doctor not to target confirmed town.
the question pies asking me all the time are questions that are designed to make me look scumy, and not look at alternative reasons for. why am i the only one that should be thinking of different reasons results can produce different actions? its abuntly clear there is several reasons for actions to interact with each other but it feels like ur just choosing to believe in the ones that put me in the poe over everyone else. idk why im the only one that has to answer these questions. if u have ur mind made up do what ur gonna do
Your behavior has been towny all game, but we're stuck with the same options as last DP:
There was no NK on NP3 because you're scum and Pie jailkept you
There was no NK on NP3 because scum tried to NK you and Pie jailkept you
There was no NK on NP3 because scum tried to kill Pie and Vader doctored Pie
There was no NK on NP3 because whiteflame is scum, injured Casey, and injuries work like poison WRT precluding a faction kill
And the first option still seems like the strongest, especially with Shining flipping town and my result on Rex. I struggle to understand why scum would try to kill Pie when they knew Vader would protect him, why they would try to NK you when they could go for whiteflame or Mestari if they were looking for undoctored targets, and why Mikal would give scum an Injurer and a Poisoner.
Lmao I genuinely thought Banana said this and I was townreading it so hard
Lol I changed it for my cheeky post on #170 but I'll change it back soon I promise.
There is only one true Banana!
There are only two ways, as I see it, that my result does not clear awesome and Rex.
Scenario #1: awesome and Rex are both scum, they targeted Banana for the NK on NP3 for some reason, and Rex lawyered NP4. I'm not buying this. There's also the possibility they YOLO'd an NK on Pie and Vader stopped the NK. Not buying that either.
Scenario #2: awesome is scum and redirected me onto a townie. If Pie was redirected, this is impossible.
What are your comments on what Wryly did with Awesome and REF?
it was pretty clever if u think about it and I dont think shes gotten enough credit for it, like i can see why she did it and i dont see any flaws in her reasoning n i am in awe tbh
Already asked him, awaiting response
I've really let 3P fall by the wayside of my considerations here.
Mm, maybe you really thought Shining would flip scum.
Nah, you would've known they wouldn't send her to do the NK again on the chance Shining would flip town
Who did you jailkeep last night
My POE is Banana, Kohai, Mag1c, Mestari, whiteflame, in that order. whiteflame probably shouldn't even be on that list because I'm not buying that Mikal gave scum a Poisoner and an Injurer, but the revelations so far have destroyed my confidence in my ability to modpsych Mikal.
I'm also not quite sure if I buy this whole "Mestari wiped out two scummates to activate his Ant King" power yet, but we can explore that further down the line. At least I have a claim to analyze with Mestari, which is more than I can say of Mag1c, so that puts Mag1c higher up in the POE.
I don’t think you’re getting me.
Without a Strengthener, there’s a 50/50 shot you get an inno on REF right?
Supposedly with strengthening it’s 100% shot you get an inno on him, assuming he’s town
Did you ask how Godfather or Lawyer would interact?
DP3 #467 Banana immediately assumes Rex lied and not that Pie was framed, probably should have noted that at the time
Mikal watching town destroy itself over an undisclosed game mechanic
Something I would like help looking into while I'm at work... If Rex is town then there was no mole. If there was no mole, there is less reason for mafia to have framed Pie. I think it's worth looking into DP3 in particular with the stances people took WRT the guilty and the mole.
Scum must've been laughing their asses off DP2 knowing they didn't frame Pie and town was still tearing itself apart.
I'll take a look back.
I asked awesome to strengthen me. That's all they knew about it.
I asked ahead of time if awesome's Strengthener would negate result-randomizing abilities. Mikal confirmed it would.
I did make the almost-fatal error of assuming that for binary investigation results, Rex's role just flips it to the opposite result. It turns out that is how it works, but I didn't know that for sure ahead of time. Rex can answer in full how his role works.
As Rex said, I had awesome strengthen me and investigated Rex.
Was trying to narrow our POE by two people. If awesome was scum, he wouldn't really strengthen me, and Rex's miller-esque role would return a fake guilty result. If Rex was scum, then awesome's Strengthener would've yielded me a true guilty result. Either way, a guilty result would indicate one of them was scum and an innocent would indicate they were both town.
I got an innocent result.
Imo this clears them, barring two very specific scenarios.
