Forgot Mestari. His gripes and analyses so far feel towny, but if he's as experienced as signs indicate it could easily be an act. Null.
Forgot Mestari. His gripes and analyses so far feel towny, but if he's as experienced as signs indicate it could easily be an act. Null.
Reads, fwiw
Thoth - I'm teetering on the fence. The Mestari slip and his explanation for it just feel lingeringly suspicious, but at the same time, I feel like scum!Thoth and his team could've come up with a better recovery. I feel like they could've come up with a better fake claim for him too, or that Mikal would've given him a better fake claim if full claims were provided. Neither of these are enough to overpower my doubts. I could be on board with a Thoth lynch. I'm in no hurry though.
Rex - Town lean. I'm with Lunatic that the late sub-in feels pretty good, and if Lunatic says he townreads Rex's claim I'm inclined to trust him for now.
Banana - I like her posted reads a lot, but it's all I really have to go on. She's busy in real life and this is a monster of a game to keep up with, so I'm willing to cut her some slack. Also, like her, I kind of always townread her and I can't really trust my gut.
Kohai - His claim feels shaky, but I'm in the same position I am with Thoth. His team should've come up with something better for him. If Kohai was on my team I'd be hammering out fake claim ideas minute one in scumchat. I'd know he'd be a guaranteed pressure target DP1.
Helz - His rejection of a recruitment offer and his behavior so far have earned him a town lean from me.
Mag1cman - I like his contributions so far, but he's a good enough player that I'd never have a bead on him this early if he was scum. I probably need to do an ISO of him.
Alyssa - The main item for me is her bizarre attempt to divert associative suspicion away from herself in the Thoth probe. I struggle to rationalize scum!Alyssa deploying that "he learned it from Mikal" defense. If she's scum and Thoth is town, she knows Thoth is going to flip town if he's lynched and it won't incriminate her in this "she told him in scumchat" theory, so why draw attention to herself with a strange desperate defense. And she can't have been trying to pocket him, as others have claimed. She's been scumreading him, for one, and also that's a crazy way to try to pocket someone; it contradicts the explanation Thoth himself gave. A pocket attempt would sound more like "I actually buy this, scum probably wouldn't have given an explanation this weak. Everyone goofs sometimes." I could more easily rationalize it as town!Alyssa trying to distance herself from someone she suspects is going to flip scum, honestly. And if they're both scum, I don't buy scum!Alyssa and scum!Thoth fumbling a recovery play or a distance play this bad. Regardless, my vibes are still sus vibes. Why would she say it at all? Thoth possibly learning it from Mikal explains literally none of the data.
Pie, whiteflame, Casey - These players are all null for me behaviorally. Pie has just been going around smashing things with a hammer and grunting "POE, POE", which is completely normal and NAI for him. whiteflame has been providing seamless sanitized analysis that is impossible to either townread or scumread, as per uzhe. I've played few games with Casey, but her (still not sure on preferred pronouns) posts haven't tipped me one way or another.
Shining, Vader, Airmax - These players are all null due to inactivity.
Ok thanks for the tl;dr. I am looking for behaviors and my skimming at 1am is definetly not helping. Unrecruitable is fair but I don't necessarily see that as confirmed town, no?
It's not. Only way to verify it is to have one of the leaders try to recruit him, but then they'd be wasting a whole NP and might lose the race.
Also, if you weren't aware, earlier in the DP Thoth referred to Mestari as a fearkill target, prompting an inquiry into how Thoth knew this, considering he's never played with Mestari before. He defended himself by saying he'd heard Helz say on Discord that Helz had done his doctoral thesis on Mafia Theory or some such, and then he just confused Mestari and Helz. This was met with skepticism, and there is still prominent suspicion that Thoth learned the tidbit from scumchat. Since Alyssa is one of the few players who knows Mestari well enough to have that information, she is also being sussed.
Thoth has claimed the protagonist's younger sister and has also claimed he is unrecruitable.
Low activity players are absolutely fucked this game
That would be weird, though, since this came up two days into the DP. Setting aside concerns about the theme split and how it would break down without Jin-woo in town, you would have to believe that Jin-woo refused to accept an invite to a Guild, Mikal waited two days in the DP, and then he posted this.
I thought of this as well, but it could be that Mikal was just busy or from the start decided to announce it mid-DP for theatric timing.
Guilds are exclusively composed of human beings, so no. If scum are just straight up boss monsters, then their capacity to join a Guild would be surprising and not in line with the show.
As I thought then. Hmm.
As someone familiar with the show, what do you think of Mes's Korean/Japanese theme split notion?
Weird Sung Jinah can't join a guild for theme reasons but monsters could still join despite theme reasons, but I suppose Mikal could've handwaved that for game purposes.
First the Helz/wylted reconciliation, now Mes/Luna. This game is finna be downright heartwarming.
Can monsters join guilds in the show
It is tied to something that happened in game because in the show Jin Woo helps on jeju island and Mikal is saying that Jin Woo is actively choosing not to take a side or participate in jeju island. I think there is a third party or something who is Jin Woo and they had to make a choice to joins guild or remain 3p and they chose to remain 3p. Or something like that.
If the MC is 3P, what do you think the mafia/town theme split is?
If he's town then unless he has a good 3rd ability, his role doesn't do anything anyway. Not that there can't be neutral or negative utility roles, just that there's not a big mechanical loss in losing his role and it's far outweighed by the ability to analyze the wagon.
Normally I'd say that "it won't be a huge loss anyway" is a poor counterargument to reasonable doubt.
But not in a 17 player game.
If he's scum it's a shitty fake claim. It can't be verified, and after N0 scum have no reason to waste one of their recruitment attempts on an unrecruitable player just to confirm his claim.
I did ask Mikal if scum were given full fake claims or just partial fake claims. He wouldn't answer. If scum were given only fake character claims for instance, I could see Thoth perhaps snagging Sung Jinah and then manufacturing this unrecruitable thing to go with her, which could explain the "Mikal probably wouldn't make scum unrecruitable or hand out 'unrecruitable' as a scum fake claim" problem.
The city of Seoul is overrun. Ants from Jeju Island have begun to spread beyond the gate, swarming into the mainland, attacking civilians, adapting, evolving. They can fly now. Something that was never seen before. This is no longer contained. This is no longer just an island. The S-Rank gate that has never been closed has already claimed too many lives, hunters, soldiers, entire raid teams. Now, the world is watching as Korea prepares for one final attempt. Guilds from across the country stand ready, joined by hunters from other nations, all coming together for what may be humanity’s last chance to stop the hive. Every hunter. Every citizen. Every nation. All of it comes down to this. And yet… the world looks toward one man, the one hunter who could change everything. But he refuses. He has no desire to join the raid. No desire to work with any guild. And when you hold that kind of power… why would you?
I wish I knew if this was just a scripted hint or if it heralds some new development in the game mechanics.
I believe she is breaking up other people's reads as a way to simulate what town would look like when scum hunting.
I also have a lot of respect for her game as town and she appears to be playing worse and is less useful than she usually is as town.
I imagine some of these traits would be easier to see in real life and she is likely a terrible liar in real life and this stuff would come across easier if it was voiced rather than written.
I've been dealing with several medical problems with gran the last two days. Sorry I haven't been contributing as much. I'll also admit to feeling pretty out of my depth with the amount of veteran players we have this game. I'm mostly just dog paddling in the wake of your speedboats.
And it's just my nature as town to critically analyze the scumreads that are on the table, and to be careful with pulling the trigger myself.
fixed. the bolded names have this wagon against them
I agree.
I said earlier that one of my abilities is potentially kinda-sorta-confirmable, or, if it isn't now, then it could be depending on how things play out. Let's say that I claimed information about your guild that I couldn't have known unless I knew it from an ability or shared scum chat with your recruit. If I did, do you trust your recruits enough that you would see this as confirming me, or would you suspect a mole? Just a yes/no question.
The thot plickens!
spanking good reads post
Lame!
Hey, what did I do!
If Thoth is town, Airmax is scum btw.
Stop dangling cryptic fruit and elaborate you fucking tease
He has claimed a role that the guild leaders will not verify for stated reasons, and another role that might be verifiable under the right conditions. That's a wash.
A recruitment invitation from a guild leader could end this uncertainty, but they're not exactly incentivized to select him.
I finally had a chance to put my Prisoner's Dilemma role in a game after waiting for months, and then Wryly waived it and it got roleblocked anyway.
You were concerned it was too late to get responses from our potential dilemma targets, and I agreed. Alas.
No, but it doesn't mean she wasn't trying defend a known town (or at least non-scum) player for potential town cred.
It came off more as a defense of herself than a defense of Thoth. "Well if he does flip scum, he still could've gotten the info from somewhere other than me." You don't defend a townie by contradicting their own explanation for their slip-up.
That only applied on night 0
Noted.
Sure.
Casey - Primarily gut read combined with the fact that I feel like she hasn’t done anything to progress the game. She joined the Thoth wagon and then the mini wagon on VTNL
Kohai - The pressure on Mestari seemed opportunistic to me. I also hate his claim. Ascetic is weak and often a scum claim as you know.
Alyssa - The defense of Thoth feels contrived. As if she knows he’s town and trying to justify it. It also doesn’t sit right with me that she ignored 11 pages and just straight voted Thoth in her second post for “reasons mentioned.” Just feels different compared to the previous game I was in with her
Danke.
I get the Kohai read, but if Casey has failed to progress the game significantly, that doesn't particularly distinguish her from me, Rex, Banana, etc. Alyssa's "he could have learned it from Mikal" argument continues to be a puzzler.
I could possibly get behind an Alyssa lynch, but with three scummates talking in his ear, it's harder for me to believe Kohai would have a lackluster fake claim. If you were on his scum team, wouldn't nailing down his fake claim be the first thing you'd do? You'd know he would almost certainly be pressured for a claim DP1, and it would have to look good.
My ability is more than a simple mason recruit. It's literally a factor in determining my win condition. Meaning I not only need to have a bigger group then wylted to even be eligible to win, I can't have any mafia inside this group either. So it makes literally no sense to recruit people who I scum read unless I wanted to actually game throw, because if he is lying about being unrecruitable, we learn the same thing we do from just straight up lynching him.
Also, I didn't wanna say this because I know it would set thoth off on an "I told you so rant" but I 100% agree with whiteflame that his claim isn't all that great. Jin Woo's is a major character, but she doesn't really align with what the theme seems to be. Like in this universe there is no reason a guild would recruit her, shes a basic human with no powers. I don't get the role justification because she isn't unrecruitable for any power related reason, she's unrecruitable because she would be absolutely useless to any guild. She shouldn't be anything other than a vanilla in this type of a set up. And the scum slip is too much to overlook as well.
Point taken about your guild leader considerations, but if neither you or wylted are inclined to verify his claim (understandable, given you'd essentially be handing over the decision of recruit to him), we're back to square one on him.
I didn't realize hunters had to have supernatural abilities in the series. Hmm. I'll need to do some theme research and consider this.
Are either of your two other abilities confirmable
I'd like elaboration on Casey, Kohai, and Alyssa