whiteflame

I'm taking a break from this. I'll come back to it later and address some of these responses. For now, I recognize that we probably have little choice but to decide between Mikal and Bullish at this stage.

Helz wrote:

Mag1cman wrote:

Night action failed last night; I tried to save Rex by making him suffer for another DP. I’m Hydrogen, the Doctor.

The tldr justification is that hydrogen is simple and therefore allows complexity to emerge from its simplicity as bonds with just about everything else, therefore being the element Pie chose to credit with being necessary for life.

I do not see this as possible. I was 2 shot and I got Vanalized last night. Part of why I did not want to confirm how many charges I had was because I had hoped to waste a kill or one of those shots.

For your action to fail it would require some other sort of reason. I also question why you did not poke or suspect me at some point given you should have felt you were a CC to me this entire time.

Im starting to strongly see Mag1c as scum with this claim.

Did you ever full claim? Especially if you are Vanillaized, there's no reason not to out your entire claim at this point.

Mikal wrote:

That's fair but if you can point out a use that potentially didnt fuck us or engage with a possible bus driver. Im all ears. Just saying in my head. The safest play was to not fuck with results as it would just make dps convoluted like it was after np1

The problem is that it's safe either way. It avoids questions about why you wouldn't use your night action to confirm yourself as well.

Bullish wrote:

whiteflame wrote:

Bullish wrote:

My actions:

NP1 - targeted NP1 whiteflame, affirmative on motion

NP2 - targeted NP1 magic, affirmative on motion

NP3 - targeted NP2 whiteflame, negative on motion

Much bigger help than you've been this whole game

Yes, because double tapping me with your role was such a big help. If you're here to just be a dick about it, then all you're doing is making this actively harder.

It semi clears you dumbass, it means you didn't use lightning rod (thus likely actually vanillarized), didn't do the NK, and didn't visit casey.

Considering all the options you had last NP, I can't say I see as much value in the decision as you do, but whatever.

Mikal wrote:

I get that but let's say i wanted to hit magic cus I thought he was sus and out of poe. I could move him but let's say he is telling the truth and the doctor. I've then moved the doctor to a bad place.

To many people had not claimed and yes unfortunately its not optimal to make assumptions.

Vs I target you and its basically waiving. And on the off chance bullish just died and I was wrong about you the game was solved.

I largely expected nothing to happen but waiving was my choice. It was just waiving while adding go my town read of you

I'll leave it at I'm skeptical for now. I'd like to hear more thoughts about this choice and get more people posting in here, particularly Shining.

Bullish wrote:

My actions:

NP1 - targeted NP1 whiteflame, affirmative on motion

NP2 - targeted NP1 magic, affirmative on motion

NP3 - targeted NP2 whiteflame, negative on motion

Much bigger help than you've been this whole game

Yes, because double tapping me with your role was such a big help. If you're here to just be a dick about it, then all you're doing is making this actively harder.

Bullish wrote:

Yall are a bunch of actual tards

Big help.

Mikal wrote:

So moving in a way at all that could harm town is a better choice than waiving or targeting someone who cant move to not accept actions when there has already been a cluster fuck of analysis about misdirection?

Figure anything i do is bad and harms us cus 3 people were still not claimed.

I'm pointing out that you have no mechanical support for your claim at all and that that's a problem. If your point is that another action could have been actively anti-town, fine, that doesn't change the reality that all I have on you - all anyone has on you - is a behavioral read.

Mag1cman wrote:

whiteflame wrote:

Thoth wrote:

whiteflame wrote:

So it's been completely inactive all previous nights?

Yes

Could it have been activated previously?

No

I'm going to take a break from analyzing this because I'd rather not surmise what your role is if we're not seeking a full claim yet. Suffice it to say that you'll almost certainly be pushed to claim during this DP.

On second thought, he may not have to. The lynch is between Mikal and Bullish today, obviously.

It's a 50-50 shot, so I do get why they would be the focus this time around, though if we're even able to limit the other pool by one person, that changes to a 66-33 shot. Not sure if I want Thoth's claim to try and manage that, but I'm considering it.

Mag1cman wrote:

whiteflame wrote:

Thoth wrote:

First, this will require us to take a closer look at Helz. I was not the only one who was reading him as town in part because he was the only claimed protective role. Now we have another.

God forbid that a thirteen-player game have two protectives.

This is so frustrating, dude. The reason why Helz got a mechanical townread from several of us was because he was the sole claimed protective role. I'm not arguing that it's impossible to have multiple protective roles. I'm saying that it matters that there are two because it's not a given that the one claimed protective role is here for balance.

Well, what did you want me to say? "I'm a protective guys, so don't townread Helz too quick!" Yeah what a great plan.

Yes it's true that two protectives aren't guaranteed. But he worked well with a DP1 theory I had, and had dropped out of my focus (what little there was) for the most part after that.

I didn't say you should have outed your protection role, I said we should be reconsidering Helz now. I'm not chastising you for refusing to out earlier. It is nearly guaranteed that one of you exists. It is possible that both of you do. That difference is what I'm considering now.

Mikal wrote:

No. Me moving anyone is not helpful

Did not know what thoth was

Moving rex hurt us

Moving helz hurt us

Did not know what magic did

I hinted I was going to casey to see what they would claim to see if I could bait a result from her

2 options

One - waive

Two - move a vanilla ad a safety play

Townreading you doesn't mean im still not going tk be cautious. It confirms you are not doing a kill and doesn't mess with actions

I can't say I get this logic. Again: you redirected the person who you had the most reason to behaviorally townread to a target you were actively sussing, knowing that it was very likely I was telling the truth and would do nothing. It's a very convenient excuse for not having any confirmation of your role, period.

Thoth wrote:

whiteflame wrote:

So it's been completely inactive all previous nights?

Yes

Could it have been activated previously?

No

I'm going to take a break from analyzing this because I'd rather not surmise what your role is if we're not seeking a full claim yet. Suffice it to say that you'll almost certainly be pushed to claim during this DP.

Thoth wrote:

First, this will require us to take a closer look at Helz. I was not the only one who was reading him as town in part because he was the only claimed protective role. Now we have another.

God forbid that a thirteen-player game have two protectives.

This is so frustrating, dude. The reason why Helz got a mechanical townread from several of us was because he was the sole claimed protective role. I'm not arguing that it's impossible to have multiple protective roles. I'm saying that it matters that there are two because it's not a given that the one claimed protective role is here for balance.

Night more I moved wf to bullish. If he was telling the truth would not move him and on the off chance I was wrong. Figure he would carry the nk and was hoping in that case scum would hit scum.

Hold on. Are you saying that, in a DP where you were actively townreading me behaviorally, your choice was to redirect me to Bullish in the hopes that I might kill him? WTF is even with that logic, man? Are you saying you were lying about your townread up to that point or are you still scumreading me?

Mag1cman wrote:

Night action failed last night; I tried to save Rex by making him suffer for another DP. I’m Hydrogen, the Doctor.

The tldr justification is that hydrogen is simple and therefore allows complexity to emerge from its simplicity as bonds with just about everything else, therefore being the element Pie chose to credit with being necessary for life.

NP1 target was Bullish

NP2 I went for Helz

NP3 I went for Rex

So... a few thoughts.

First, this will require us to take a closer look at Helz. I was not the only one who was reading him as town in part because he was the only claimed protective role. Now we have another.

Second, you're going to need to be clear about your reason for choosing those 3 targets. Wanting to make Rex suffer through another DP isn't really enough from where I'm sitting, dude was Vanillaized and he wasn't the only widely townread player in the game.

Third, I'm a little wary of that justification. Lots of elements bond with other elements. Hell, arguably the king of bonding other elements is Carbon, which was Banana's character, since it can form four separate bonds to Hydrogen's only one. It's obviously essential for life, but it's hardly alone in that as well.

Thoth wrote:

It is passive, it has not been triggered yet, and it will not be triggered until something specific happens.

So it's been completely inactive all previous nights? Could it have been activated previously?

Thoth wrote:

Well, this has been a disaster so far, but I think we have a good chance of taking it back.

I know this won’t help the perception of my claim as a stall tactic, but, after learning my role, I still think it's best that I don't claim. I'd like to put that up for a vote if I'm going to be a lynch consideration today.

You need to give us something, dude. Just giving a "it's best that I don't claim" tells us absolutely nothing. You know what your role is. Has it been in play on previous nights? It is active or passive? Something, anything.

Much as I get the decision to lynch Casey, it's pretty predictable that this leaves us with a heads up decision between Bullish and Mikal. At least from where I'm sitting, it's a 50-50 shot either way, with two scum likely in the Helz, Mag1c, Shining and Thoth pool. I'm going to need to revisit my reads and consider that pool more thoroughly since we're almost certainly at LYLO now.

So, here's what I'd like to see from everyone:

Thoth, it's DP4. I see that you posted you know your role and now you're saying that you shouldn't claim. It's LYLO. There had better be a very good reason for you to continue delaying claiming, otherwise this is going to get frustrating very quickly.

Bullish, you need to give up both your targets for NP2 and NP3 as well as your results. Holding back on the former last DP was some BS and that needs to end now.

Helz, I'll definitely need to hear who you chose for your target NP3. I think it's worth running back your choices of targets for the second NP as well, I need to revisit your thinking on that choice.

Mikal, run down who you targeted last night and why, assuming you targeted anyone. I think you said you didn't use your role to have someone target Casey NP2, so did you not use your role at all that night?

Shining, full claim. You were almost entirely absent last DP and hopped on relatively late to join the Casey lynch without any reads on anyone else. Give us something, anything, to read you.

Mag1cman, full claim. You posted prolifically in DP3, but no one, myself included, seemed interested in seeking your claim. That ends today.

We have 9 hours left. I'll hop on early tomorrow and make the call if no one's decided as the hammer tonight.

Mikal wrote:

But no one listens. Casey was better last dayphase

I will vote whoever I have to in order to save my ass but I really dont like bullish

I'd prefer Bullish as well atm, but that may not be an option.

Suffice it to say that I get the basic idea for pursuing Casey, even if it’s just to determine whether their Dream is real.

Mikal wrote:

Also bullish needs to say his results. Just dismissed this initially but if he ends up alive and in the poe. I dont want him to have the chance to retcon based on what other people say.

I’ll second this. If nothing else, learning who Bullish targeted, why, and what feedback he got would give us something else to examine. Banana held back on claiming and now we can’t even read into why she chose her targets.

I will try to be on and active more of the day today.

In terms of how I'm viewing everyone so far, I'll give some basic reads to start.

I think Rex is town. I don't think he gives that result on me or plays this DP out the way he has as scum, it just doesn't make any sense to me.

I'm writing off both Helz and Thoth for today. Behaviorally, I've seen nothing but good reason to townread Helz, and since he's the only claimed protective role, that applies mechanically as well. If he trusts Thoth and they're in chat together, that's good enough for me, at least for this DP. The fact that neither of them are listed in Casey's Dream is another reason I'm setting them aside.

For the same reason, while I can't say I'm townreading either Mag1c or Shining, I'm leaving them aside for this DP. Shining hasn't contributed enough to get any kind of read beyond the most basic. And while I like how Mag1c's gone about analyzing night actions and getting reads, none of it has really pushed me either way. They're about as null as null can get for me at this point.

And that leaves our main 3: Bullish, Casey and Mikal. I have different reasons for considering all of them.

Bullish is largely behavioral. He has at least some mechanical support for himself, in part driven by the very early softclaim. I give him a decent amount of credit for that. I'm tempted to say it's not a risky fake claim, but most of the Periodic Table isn't. I'm mainly questioning whether he'd go back to the previous game, take this role, and apply it here just assuming that Pie wouldn't re-use it. I don't love that he's now had a chance to go back and use his Motion Detector on the previous NP only to find that it's not useful information, though I think he'd have reason to incriminate someone if he was scum using that fake claim. The fact that he hasn't may just be a WIFOM issue, though. I do think Bullish has been behaviorally very strange this game, and that's what is making it difficult to make a call on him.

Casey is mainly paranoia. I know Casey did technically soft their role early on, but I'm a little less ready to give them as much credit since they could have just been sleep deprived instead of, you know, actually softing. What's better for them is the decision to claim early last DP despite not knowing if anyone had visited them. Unless scum have some role that allows them to parse out what happened during the NP, or at least what happened to them, that's a huge risk. Maybe scum Casey takes that risk, but I doubt it. I'd say Casey's been pretty consistent behaviorally as well.

Then there's Mikal. So I've got a lot of behavioral insight into Mikal and he was very plain with me about his strategy and what he's been trying to do in this game. I have more basis for a behavioral townread on him than anyone in this game because we spent so much time talking. That being said, I recognize he's also the most mechanically sus of the three. Multiple elements don't help his case. Bullish is right that he didn't soft his character or role early. He claimed a magnetic element without knowing that mine was magnetic, so I can't give him as much credit as I initially did for outing his character to me. The Magnet itself is, at minimum, a pseudo-CC of mine. I have to question whether he'd make the decision to do so after knowing that I was the Lightning Rod, and no, he didn't wait long to claim Magnet after I claimed my role to him. If he's scum, then after preparing this fake claim, he was full speed ahead on pushing it. Couple that with a pretty consistent attitude of frustration that either my or his lynch/NK would incriminate the other and it's hard to believe he's just making this up, though maybe he just has manipulated me that well. Finally, knowing that I'd been redirected to Shining NP1, a claimed redirection role looks bad. He claimed that before Rex outed his result, so I can't give him credit for that one, either.

Suffice it to say that I can see reasons to lynch any of these 3, but I'm leaning on Bullish or Mikal. I haven't decided which yet.

Damn, it's just dead in here. Anyone else weirded out that Bullish just kind of vanished after posting a tirade at the start of the DP only to return to verify that his results are useless, then vanish again?

Really don't love that Shining hasn't posted in this DP at all. Coming up on 48 hours and he's still completely absent.

I'd like to see a lot more from both of them before making a decision.

For those curious, I’m done with the tournament. I won the whole thing, though there was some luck involved in the final round. Tyrese Peliburton hit a crit from deep.

Hey, congrats on the win! Some RNG is to be expected, just good it worked out in your favor.

Consider this mod intervention. I'm deleting most of these spammed vote counts since it's just taking up space.

Well, I guess nothing's been added since last night. Going to be prepping for a debate, so I'm not going to have as much time to post today as I'd like. I'll be around and hopefully develop some more thoughts on the DP as the day goes on.

Heads up, I have plans for tonight and probably won't be on for much of it. Suffice it to say that I've caught up again and basically agree with the scenarios Mag1c outlined in #115 and #116. I realize my circumstances are very dependent on some kind of redirection being in play, and specifically on the existence of a Bus Driver to explain quite a bit if we believe Mikal's town. Not going to pretend it's an easy lift for the rest of you to buy into, but here we are.

I will address a couple of things I saw come up. Both from Rex:

TBH the quickness that he gave a rebuttal to my argument is the only thing that gives me pause - it's almost like he already thought this through, which to me is kind of in character for town Whiteflame but even more in character for a scum Whiteflame who had planned all this out. But if he did bravo I guess, I need to hard town read one of you scummy bastards at this point.

All I can say is that I asked Pie pretty much immediately after I saw you post your being Vanillaized whether that would affect your ability to receive results on that night. I thought the answer would be no (figured you might be keeping some useful result to yourself for now) and planned to keep it to myself, but he said yes and you saw how I dealt with that.

Since I now think WF is town, I feel like Mikal maybe got a magnetic metal as a fake claim and was thinking of claiming actual magnet or lightning rod but had to come up with something on the fly once WF outed. If WF can tell me I'm off base on this, please do. But it feels like this claim is an albatross around his neck that he just doesn't want to look at or talk about and it's making him awkward and difficult. The pep is out of his step so to speak.

So I gave away that I was the Lightning Rod first. He then said he can redirect, saying it was worded as he can magnetize, and then that he is Cobalt. It was a while after that that I mentioned I'm Neodymium, to which he expressed a lack of knowledge of the element. Maybe he had a last minute change of heart about claiming Lightning Rod, though I doubt it. Cobalt doesn't really suit itself to it, but it does pretty well to Magnet. I think either the character and role were prepared together and presented to me as fake claims, or they are real. That's my read.

Casey_Risk wrote:

whiteflame wrote:

Thoth wrote:

I really wish that Helz had waited for my approval before claiming to be in a chat, or at least before claiming who he was in a chat with. Yes, I am currently chatting with Helz.

Huh. So I guess that explains why Mikal and I were kicked out of ours relatively early in the NP. Guess it wasn’t something that could be prevented by the NK.

This is what Banana's role description says:

Each night, prior to the end of the NP, you may choose two players. Those two players will be able to chat privately with each other during the following DP (and only during this DP). You may not select yourself.

So that doesn't seem indicative of anything

See, this is why I failed all those reading comprehension tests. Thanks for clearing that up.

Thoth wrote:

I really wish that Helz had waited for my approval before claiming to be in a chat, or at least before claiming who he was in a chat with. Yes, I am currently chatting with Helz.

Huh. So I guess that explains why Mikal and I were kicked out of ours relatively early in the NP. Guess it wasn’t something that could be prevented by the NK.