whiteflame

RexFavilla wrote:

whiteflame wrote:

RexFavilla wrote:

whiteflame wrote:

RexFavilla wrote:

I tried to target Magic to track him tonight because I figured someone outside the POE would carry out the nightkill, so I could either clear or catch him. I was vanillaized. I also got no result. I asked Pie if another role aside from a vanillaizer would be required to cancel my night action, and if another hypothetical tracker targeting me would see me visiting Magic tonight. He said they would not see me targeting Magic and that vanillaizer alone would be enough to eliminate my result. This means that being successfully targeted by a vanillaizer under Pie's system means that you DO NOT MOVE. Whiteflame claiming to have been vanillaized and me seeing him visit Shining cannot both be true. He is lying.

VTL: Whiteflame

Do me a favor: ask Pie what the order of operations are on Lightning Rod vs. Vanillaizer and on Vanillaizer vs. Tracker. Spoiler: one of our roles processes before the Vanillaizer and the other doesn’t.

Should have kept your trap shut to see who hopped on the wagon lol.

You and I both know that this was the subject of pretty extensive discussion last DP. Doubt scum would have fallen for it unless they just refused to pay attention to it.

We didn't discuss my tracker's ooo at all iirc. I myself had never asked pie about it as it seemed irrelevant to the matter in question.

But the goal was to draw attention to my claim of action, which had already been established, not yours. It doesn’t matter anymore, but I’m just saying this was never going to go anywhere.

RexFavilla wrote:

whiteflame wrote:

RexFavilla wrote:

I tried to target Magic to track him tonight because I figured someone outside the POE would carry out the nightkill, so I could either clear or catch him. I was vanillaized. I also got no result. I asked Pie if another role aside from a vanillaizer would be required to cancel my night action, and if another hypothetical tracker targeting me would see me visiting Magic tonight. He said they would not see me targeting Magic and that vanillaizer alone would be enough to eliminate my result. This means that being successfully targeted by a vanillaizer under Pie's system means that you DO NOT MOVE. Whiteflame claiming to have been vanillaized and me seeing him visit Shining cannot both be true. He is lying.

VTL: Whiteflame

Do me a favor: ask Pie what the order of operations are on Lightning Rod vs. Vanillaizer and on Vanillaizer vs. Tracker. Spoiler: one of our roles processes before the Vanillaizer and the other doesn’t.

Should have kept your trap shut to see who hopped on the wagon lol.

You and I both know that this was the subject of pretty extensive discussion last DP. Doubt scum would have fallen for it unless they just refused to pay attention to it.

Casey_Risk wrote:

RexFavilla wrote:

I tried to target Magic to track him tonight because I figured someone outside the POE would carry out the nightkill, so I could either clear or catch him. I was vanillaized. I also got no result. I asked Pie if another role aside from a vanillaizer would be required to cancel my night action, and if another hypothetical tracker targeting me would see me visiting Magic tonight. He said they would not see me targeting Magic and that vanillaizer alone would be enough to eliminate my result. This means that being successfully targeted by a vanillaizer under Pie's system means that you DO NOT MOVE. Whiteflame claiming to have been vanillaized and me seeing him visit Shining cannot both be true. He is lying.

VTL: Whiteflame

That's fascinating, and also has huge implications for the game if true. It likely clears Shining and also makes a Mikal/WF team seem much more likely.

I do realize that Rex could just be lying here, but he's basically putting himself in a 50/50 with WF here. I don't see the point in doing so if he's scum.

Think what you will of Mikal and I being on a team, but I still think Rex is town. If anything, I think this basically town confirms him. Scum would have asked more questions. But no, this in no way implicates me. See my response to him above and feel free to ask Pie yourself.

RexFavilla wrote:

I tried to target Magic to track him tonight because I figured someone outside the POE would carry out the nightkill, so I could either clear or catch him. I was vanillaized. I also got no result. I asked Pie if another role aside from a vanillaizer would be required to cancel my night action, and if another hypothetical tracker targeting me would see me visiting Magic tonight. He said they would not see me targeting Magic and that vanillaizer alone would be enough to eliminate my result. This means that being successfully targeted by a vanillaizer under Pie's system means that you DO NOT MOVE. Whiteflame claiming to have been vanillaized and me seeing him visit Shining cannot both be true. He is lying.

VTL: Whiteflame

Do me a favor: ask Pie what the order of operations are on Lightning Rod vs. Vanillaizer and on Vanillaizer vs. Tracker. Spoiler: one of our roles processes before the Vanillaizer and the other doesn’t.

Mikal wrote:

If you think i basically cced you after you mostly had claimed. We are cooked. I would have deviated as scum. No reason to claim basically the same role.

Ima be honest. I kinda have you hard in town. Is there a chance you are scum. Sure. But cant let go of 1k messages of no slips. Total consistency and just behavior reads

Didn't say I'm scumreading you, but if I'm not starting this DP off at least going back through the basis for my read on you and dissecting it, then that's just bad play on my part.

Bullish wrote:

The only reason to lynch casey was to set up the mislynch train. No one ever gave any behavioural reasons to lynch casey other than "was inactive DP1".

White flame is scum for believing mikal's logic in any part. He's not dumb enough for that.

VTL: Mikal

So now I'm scum just for being on the same page as Mikal after spending over a thousand posts in chat with him? Really? Your argument is that Banana selected two people who both happened to already be in a scum team together where they just pretended to have a long, ongoing conversation over the course of the entire DP? Don't appreciate the slam at my intelligence.

To be clear, I'm at least reconsidering my read on Mikal at this point regardless. I'm not just blanket townreading him, especially given that, from my perspective, it's heads up between the two of you. The Cobalt claim is no longer in any way verified by being in the same chat together, which leaves a lot of behavior and the decision to claim "Magnet" after I'd already claimed "Lightning Rod." It seemed a little on the nose. I hadn't yet claimed Neodymium by then, so maybe he thought he was clear to claim a strongly magnetic metal when the Lightning Rod could theoretically be a lot of different metals.

Casey_Risk wrote:

So, that solves one mystery, I suppose. Weird that Banana didn't claim her role and weirder still that she was the NK. Not sure what to make of that yet.

I have no idea what she was thinking, and now we can't know. We don't know why she picked Mikal and me, nor why she let any discussion of "magnets attracting" continue for so long when everyone was saying a role like this would be auto-townread, which meant she could very well have garnered support for her lynch of choice. As for her being the NK, she hinted at a PR that had obtained (and likely would obtain more) information. Scum would probably have been less likely to kill her if she'd just claimed.

RexFavilla wrote:

VTL Whiteflame

Still waiting for some clarification from Pie but I think WF might have some splainin to do.

I didn't do anything because I couldn't do anything. If you got a result, that tracks because I'm absolutely certain scum have a redirection role of some kind. Don't expect you to buy that, but I don't have any "splainin to do."

Lunatic wrote:

Looks like I am getting modkilled. GG guys.

Figured it was enough of a paraphrase but I guess pie doesn't see it that way.

...terrific.

Lunatic wrote:

whiteflame wrote:

I remain undetected unless specific tools like spectroscopy or high energy excitation are used to reveal me.

My discovery came late in chemical history because I resisted easy detection in air seperation.

See, that to me looks like your justification. The name part is just icing on the cake, but there's a functional reason why your character and role are aligned. That makes more sense.

With wierd themes like this that I have no interest in, I tend to just completely skim the PM and look at my role. None of that stuff means anything to me, I am not some smart science nerd like you lol

I'll take the compliment!

I remain undetected unless specific tools like spectroscopy or high energy excitation are used to reveal me.

My discovery came late in chemical history because I resisted easy detection in air seperation.

See, that to me looks like your justification. The name part is just icing on the cake, but there's a functional reason why your character and role are aligned. That makes more sense.

Mag1cman wrote:

Why did you target Lunatic?

He was my strongest townread aside from Kohai, and given that I thought Kohai would be the target of any protective roles, I defaulted to the next person I thought might be NK'd or at least messed with.

Mag1cman wrote:

Did you soft, or make any post saying you didn't want to claim or soft last DP?

I don't believe I did. The closest I got was hinting that I might not survive the night in post #968, as I expected I might just pull the NK to myself, but I can't say I gave any other indication.

Bullish wrote:

whiteflame wrote:

Just seems like we don't agree on how this breaks down at all, so I'll stop here. Others can choose who they agree with, but continuing to discuss the numbers between the two of us clearly isn't getting us anywhere.

You've presented no numbers that contradict mine. If you read #465 then #469 and still can't see the plain math, then you are scum.

I've presented a different interpretation of how you would be perceived going into the next DP. You disagree with that interpretation. Fine. That doesn't make me scum.

Mag1cman wrote:

whiteflame wrote:

Mag1cman wrote:

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO HAVE CLAIMED NIGHT ACTIONS ALREADY

could you remind me?

See #369. I broke down how my night action played out there, how Mikal's did, and two unknown night actions that affected at least mine. To clarify since it might initially be unclear, my intended target was Luna.

I have a very hard time believing Shining would be a target for a vanillizer.

And I have admitted that it's significantly more likely that I was the intended target of the Vanillaizer. I'd also say it's more plausible that Luna is the Vanillaizer and was drawn to me regardless of his target.

Mag1cman wrote:

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO HAVE CLAIMED NIGHT ACTIONS ALREADY

could you remind me?

See #369. I broke down how my night action played out there, how Mikal's did, and two unknown night actions that affected at least mine. To clarify since it might initially be unclear, my intended target was Luna.

Bullish wrote:

whiteflame wrote:

Let's not overstate how many times you've brought up the numerical case here, but my point was and remains that you know you would be one of the people who gets the most attention if the Dream is verified. You can say it's a 1/3 chance, but by next DP, you three will be by far the most scrutinized players. It's not just a numbers game. And yeah, I'll be happy to disagree with Banana here too.

Yeah I see your point, and it supports me dude. Why can't you see that. As scum, I'm taking the 1/2 today, then IF I survive I'm taking a 1/3 tomorrow (probably worse since I just drove a mislynch). Or, I'm taking the free mislynch today, and then a 1/3 (1/2 at best in your imaginary scenario) tomorrow.

Just seems like we don't agree on how this breaks down at all, so I'll stop here. Others can choose who they agree with, but continuing to discuss the numbers between the two of us clearly isn't getting us anywhere.

Bullish wrote:

whiteflame wrote:

Bullish wrote:

You make no sense. So I as scum, instead of taking a mislynch and a 1v2 tomorrow, I take a 1v1 today and have a 50% chance of confirming 3 other players? tf?

If you're scum, you have incentive to make sure we aren't sure whether Casey's role claim is real.

Wrong. As scum I have incentive to lynch town. Super straight forward. If casey's claim turns out real, this gives no advantage, because tomorrow will have 9 players, the pool of dreamer results will have 1/3 scum, and the rest will be 2/6 scum. Town gains no probabilistic advantage. If mikal dies and flips town, it's literally the same -- we know there's at least once scum in the pool of 3 -- casey, me, lunatic. I've been over this 50 times but you refuse to even address it. The only difference between these scenarios is that I put myself on the chopping block in one of them. Banana agrees with me.

Let's not overstate how many times you've brought up the numerical case here, but my point was and remains that you know you would be one of the people who gets the most attention if the Dream is verified. You can say it's a 1/3 chance, but by next DP, you three will be by far the most scrutinized players. It's not just a numbers game. And yeah, I'll be happy to disagree with Banana here too.

If Casey flips town Dreamer, that confirms that at least one of the three players in their Dream is town,

I'm assuming you mean scum

Yes, that's what I meant.

and, let's face it, it will likely put you in a 1v1 situation as people solidify their reads around the three of you.

you can't just make up numbers to make your side look better. I'm making it 1v1 RIGHT NOW, without the benefit of a casey mislynch.

I'm not making up numbers. You know very well that you've been the focus of a lot of attention. That's not changing next DP. As for you making it a 1v1 right now, looking at the votes that have been posted, that's just not accurate. You may be putting attention on one person, but it's not currently a 1v1 just because you're invested in the read.

That's not going to remain a 1v2. If you're able to get a lynch on one of the other two players in the Dream and they flip town, that makes Casey's claim more questionable and sets up a 1v2 situation with Casey included. I don't get what's hard to understand here.

I don't get whats so hard to understand for YOU.

Well, guess we're not getting anywhere then.

Bullish wrote:

guess what's more common on the mafia team, a redirector, which is what mikal claimed.

So, out of curiosity, do you think I'm scum along with him?

Bullish wrote:

You make no sense. So I as scum, instead of taking a mislynch and a 1v2 tomorrow, I take a 1v1 today and have a 50% chance of confirming 3 other players? tf?

If you're scum, you have incentive to make sure we aren't sure whether Casey's role claim is real. If Casey flips town Dreamer, that confirms that at least one of the three players in their Dream is town, and, let's face it, it will likely put you in a 1v1 situation as people solidify their reads around the three of you. That's not going to remain a 1v2. If you're able to get a lynch on one of the other two players in the Dream and they flip town, that makes Casey's claim more questionable and sets up a 1v2 situation with Casey included. I don't get what's hard to understand here.

Casey_Risk wrote:

Does anyone here have any reason to TR Shining?

The answer is obviously not. He hasn't really given any reason for me to townread him with a combination of too few posts and not enough insight into his thinking in those posts. It's not unusual for him to be like this as either side, so I don't have a solid read on him yet.

So it's been mentioned a few times, mainly in defense of both Bullish at this point, that he would have reason to pursue a lynch on Casey this DP if he was scum. I believe someone mentioned before that Luna looked better for not pursuing the lynch on Casey when he had the chance. I partially agree with the latter. I disagree with the former.

In the latter case, Luna wouldn't have known Casey's role, but as scum, he would have had incentive to pursue an easy mislynch and Casey looked like a prime opportunity in that respect. I don't think he necessarily would have taken that over the Magoroth mislynch, but at the very least, he didn't take advantage of an opportunity when it presented itself.

In the former case, I think the way Bullish is painting this doesn't make sense. Lynching Casey as scum would mean knowing that the flip would implicate him, or at least put him in a three-person POE pool, and his talk about Casey being dead next DP don't track with scum incentive to keep town guessing about whether Casey's results are real or not. I've played as scum with claimed Dreamers before. You don't have to kill them to prevent them from using their role, visits will do and scum clearly have lots of options on that front. So this notion that somehow Bullish looks clean for not joining the Casey wagon (which has never had more than 3 people on it anyway) is just beyond me.

Banana wrote:

i have some things i could reveal but i dont see the impact of it yet so atm im trying to be a bit hidden with my thoughts on purpose, maybe i can reveal it next dp. but yes atm i think its mikal

If it would have an impact on who we lynch this DP, it's worth revealing. In general, though, I'd like to see more reads from you this DP.

And just to be absolutely clear, I was told my night action was successful, so the Lightning Rod went through.

The Vanillaizing was the result of one of three possible scenarios: either I drew it away from someone who was targeting Shining, it was Magnetized to me from Luna, or I was targeted directly by the Vanillaizer. I unfortunately cannot narrow it down from there, though I agree with the point someone made earlier (I think it was Rex) that Shining was an unlikely target for it, so I doubt the first explanation.

RexFavilla wrote:

Busdriver/Redirector would process before Magnet, Magnet would process before Lightning Rod, and all would process before Vanillaizer.

Alright, so if I'm getting this right, this would be how Mikal's and my night actions played out. I'll give two scenarios:

Redirector Scenario -

1. I am Redirected onto Shining, taking my target away from Luna
2. Mikal Magnetizes Luna to me, so his night action goes to me
3. My Lightning Rod takes effect and I draw any roles targeting Shining to me
4. I am Vanillaized

Bus Driver Scenario -

1. Luna and Shining are Bus Driven
2. Mikal Magnetizes Shining to me, so his night action goes to me
3. My Lightning Rod takes effect and I draw any roles targeting Shining to me
4. I am Vanillaized

I believe I have that right.

Thoth wrote:

Again, I would like to ask everyone: Imagine that any of the three people in the Dreamer PoE were lynched. Imagine that they flip town or scum. That's six possibilities. How would each of those affect your view of the game?

Must've missed where you asked this earlier. Alright, let's do it. I'll take as a given that any scum flip basically confirms Casey, and largely confirms the other two as town. Conversely, any town flip draws more attention to Casey and the remaining two players in the Dreamer POE.

Luna:

1. Flips scum: Almost certainly flips Vanillaizer. Since it's the only read he's given, I'd give some credit to Shining, though not a lot given the lack of explanation. Thoth has a little more on Luna's claim looking off and Mag1c has drawn attention to how much of an outlier his justification has been, so they'd be in good shape. Helz would look pretty sus from this, given how much he's supported Luna as town. Harder to say who else, but Banana is a pretty blank slate on Luna's claim.
2. Flips town: Attention mainly goes to people who challenged him on his justification, so Mag1c and Thoth with a little sus on Shining. Helz ends up looking pretty solid.

Bullish:

1. Flips scum: More support for Rex's claim. Helz would almost certainly be town, since he was drawing attention back to Bullish when said attention was waning. Main attention would be on Banana who would stand out among those on Mikal's wagon (given the other two are in the Dreamer result) and Thoth (noticed you pushing back on Bullish's lynch back in DP1, not much attention paid to him this DP).
2. Flips town: Apart from the obvious that I'd be pretty sus, I'd have to at least start reconsidering my read on Mikal and Helz, who I think have driven this wagon more than anyone else. Both Banana and Thoth would gain some towncred from this. Shining would be an outside consideration in both cases.

Mikal:

1. Flips scum: I'd say it lends more credence to my claim, though my defense of him might look pretty sus. Banana looks pretty good from this one given her early pressure on Mikal that hasn't wavered. Attention would mainly be on Helz, Mag1c, Shining and Thoth.
2. Flips town: Bound to immediately draw attention to me given the similarities in our claims. Banana would look pretty bad with this flip, and both Bullish and Luna would also be pretty obviously concerning. I'd have to at least reconsider Rex, though I have other reasons for townreading him, so that would be a tough one.

If Mikal resolved pulled your action back to yourself (you LRed yourself), you would never have visited Luna so that wouldn't be the case. You would be visiting yourself, and only by switching yourself and Shining could you be conceivably forced to visit Shining. And if that happaned and you were switched, the only way for you to be vanillaized would be if someone targeted Shining for it and then you were switched. But this also depends on ooo.

I think I see your point. There has to be some way this works out, but I’m still iffy on the details. Too many redirects in play, missing essential pieces.

I’m going to be busy for part of the evening, so I’m going to put my vote down for now and come back to discuss it more later. The long and short of it is that I think it’s likely there is one scum between Bullish and Casey. I’m torn between a behavioral scum read on Bullish and a desire to get info from Casey’s flip.

At least for now, though, I’m leaning Bullish. I’ll be back on tonight.

VTL: Bullish

RexFavilla wrote:

RexFavilla wrote:

WAIT. If Mikal's action resolved first, and he targeted Luna, he should have visited himself. So this all depends on when redirectors and busdrivers resolve.

Second he being Whiteflame. If what Mikal and WF says happened there really should be no way he visited Shining. So the only options to explain vanillaizer is:

Luna is Vanillaizer

Other Vanillaizer targetted WF

WF is lying

Only way to explain WF visiting Shining is:

WF being redirected to shining (I think this would depend on order of operations to be possible as well, and if the ooo does not support this it could only be true if Mikal is lying)

Shining and WF being busdriven (depending on order of operations - but this would mean someone would have to target Shining with the vanillaizer so I would rule this out as he didn't soft any power roles)

WF is lying.

Largely agree up to the Bus Driver. To be specific, it would have to be Luna and Shining that were Bus Driven for things to work out the way they did, not me and Shining (I still would’ve been seen visiting Luna).

I don’t really get the assumption that my being redirected in any fashion puts the lie to Mikal’s claim, either. You say this a few times in this post and I don’t get it. I think you’re assuming that the Magnet works in both directions, which is not accurate. Luna’s night actions would be redirected to me by it, not the other way around.

RexFavilla wrote:

I don't see a vanillaizer targetting Shining. Which imo means either Lunatic is the Vanillaizer and is scum and was forced onto WF or another scum Vanillaizer targeted WF or WF is scum and lying. Him going to shining instead is bizarre to me, it means we would be dealing with a busdriver/redirector on top of a magnet and a lightning rod as he claims to have targeted Luna.

This means that Mikal would have moved WF's lightning rod onto himself since his action resolved first. The question is how a redirector or bus driver would resolve.

I feel like from scum WF's perspective claiming to have the role he did and that he used it on Luna felt safe in the mason PM. It meant that the vanillaizer could have targetted him or Luna, and it also meant that he also wouldn't have to explain future night actions as he could have claimed to be vanilla from then on out. From a town WF perspective, why on earth would scum busdrive Luna and Shining? Why would they redirect WF to Shining of all people?

Tbh the more I hurt my brain thinking about this the worst it makes WF look.

I can only speak to what happened, not the end result. A Bus Driver is the likeliest means by which my target was changed, especially if I was the target of a Vanillaizer (doubt scum would hit me with a Redirector on top of the Vanillaizer). If Luna is the Vanillaizer, then it’s more plausible a Redirector also used their role on me, not knowing I’d be turned Vanilla.

The only other explanations I can think of are that you are scum (unlikely for reasons I’ve already mentioned) or that your target was changed to someone else, though no one has claimed to visit Shining so that doesn’t offer any options as to whom that could be.

I can’t help if you scumread me because the target of my action doesn’t match your result, all I can do is surmise how it happened. If it comes off sounding like a long shot, I don’t blame you.