whiteflame

i wasnt actually caught on some result or anything tho. from what i understand the reason im being focused is because of "poe" that results from eliminating ref/awesome from the poe, so all im saying is to let my town flip reverse that decision to confirm them and get you to think about this outside the box is all.

Alright, that's something at least.

i keep trying to emphasize that i know im the lynch and am okay with the lynch. i dont see how that is defensive at all. i just want there to be something useful to come out of my mislynch, and i dont see how continued discussion about results will accomplish that. the whole point of my spheal here is to learn literly anything from this lynch so you can find scum and town can win in the end. if my lynch enables town to focus down and hunt the other two scum im happy. if my lynch doesn't accomplish anything, and i somehow get blamed for not doing enough to disprove results, i will be a little angry. just dont spin the mislynch back on me, and use it to get other scum. thats all i am asking. not being defensive. not even defending myself really. i am okay being lynched.

Alright then. I'll pick this back up tomorrow and make a call one way or the other.

its not just dismissive, i ouright refuse to acknowledge anything mechanical. i know im the lynch, so when im lynched and town the onus is on you to figure out why the mechanics are wrong. idc enough to convince u otherwise. the only truth i know and can repeat like a parrot is that im town, its on you if you dont believe me. or you can blame mikal for the mechanics. either way expecting me to have an answer to anything that happened night action wise is a bit silly isnt it? ill let you do that post flip.

Alright, I was giving you the benefit of the doubt, but if you want to own it fully, be my guest. I'm not expecting you to have an answer for exactly how this played out, but I also don't think it's better to just refuse to acknowledge it. Doesn't seem like we're going anywhere on this, though.

doesnt mean anything to me. my role card is town so u trying to convince me that any of these results should implicate me and thinking that should mean anything to me is just crazy

You keep shifting the subject back to you and I don't know why. Part of your reason for dismissing the results of Wryly's investigation as meaningful was to say that she got an incorrect result two times in a row. As I've pointed out, that's just not true. And no, I'm not trying to implicate you with these results. I'm focused on whether this gives significant support to REF and Awesome's claims. Been focused on POE since I started responding to you.

i feel like ive been pretty straigtforward

I feel like you've been more defensive in response to me than is warranted given I haven't been responding with reasons to sus you.

i didnt say to set anything aside, i said there are other variables and unknown factor we cant know or account for, so ur applying what limited info u do have and making conclusions out of them, and because i dont know what other variables their are, that is being used against me as evidence that there are no other variables. u see my problem with this?

We are accounting for a forced shift in targets, a.k.a. a Redirector. That's the big x-factor. There are always unknowns, but considering how this piece of evidence was acquired, it cuts out a substantial number of them. And at least what I'm taking away from it is that it's far less likely for REF or Awesome individually or together to be scum. If REF was lying about his role, Wryly would have flagged him. If Awesome was lying, then REF's role would have resulted in him being flagged by Wryly. Neither scenario happened and we know a Lawyer couldn't have caused this. It's not proof positive, but it's not like everyone here is just automatically granting it as given, either. Nonetheless, it is pretty strong evidence, and we've seen you be pretty dismissive of it.

semantics. pie is town, we know this, and the result was wrong. i dont even see what point ur trying to make here.

Banana, we went over this last DP extensively. Wryly's role will flag a target from the other Guild, regardless of whether they're scum or town. That's how it's supposed to work, Mikal informed Wryly about that last DP and several of us (myself included) were baffled by it. The result was right, but our understanding of what it meant was wrong. We now understand what those results mean and can apply that understanding correctly going forward.

i already told u im not giving it to u. i simply do not know. your trying to get blood from a stone. i know im being lynched, i literly just want my lynch to do something other than make you say "oh jee jilly gosh, the results messed with us again!" and get you to at least consider the idea that the people u are using to town confirm them with are just as likely to be scum as u thought i was when you mislynched me.

Fair enough, I'm just trying to focus your attention so that we can get something more out of this. There are things you're saying that don't make sense to me, so I'm trying to understand.

I want everyone to answer this question

1. If banana town who’s scum?

2. If banana flips scum I’m obviously the lynch. When I flip town who’s her partner?

Well, for the second question, I'd be considering Mestari more closely. If my theory about the Ant King and how that character activated is correct, I could see a world where Mestari's scum.

The first question is more difficult. I'd be looking at you again and I'd have to reconsider my read on Mag1c as well, though I don't see it as likely that he's an original member of the scum team.

i wouldnt be dismissive of results in any other game. just this one because clearly we don’t understand all the mechanics and so much of it relies on ppl telling the truth about their roles and results, or scum not having the ability to manipulate them. we have every reason to believe scum have that ability with two wrong results so I don’t think it’s that far fetched to say dismissing results and mech is that crazy. I just want behavior to be some sort of factor in any of this and it isn’t anyone’s priority

So even when we're straight up given information on the mechanics of how certain roles work by Mikal and it's confirmed by other players, we should just set them aside? I get that scum can manipulate them, but this was clearly a strategy they worked out in their Guild, so you'd have to believe that someone in there is scum or that someone knew what they'd do and manipulated this outcome from the outside. Which are you going with?

Also, to be clear again, we have one wrong result on Alyssa and an apparently correct result on Pie, we just didn't understand the context for that second result at the time.

we can agree to disagree but the only way u will see the error of ur beliefs is unfortunately by mislynching me so it is what it is

Focusing on one thing at a time. If you believe this result should go away, I want more than just "there has been manipulation before" as a reason.

nothing i say seems to help my case. Anything I say gets used against me no matter what i do or say. No matter what happens im in the Poe. There’s nothing I can do about that. i have no way to confirm myself. Period. even if i somehow survived today my lynch is absolutely inevitable. we can afford the mislynches so it’s not the end of the world but if I’m going to be lynched i do want it at the very least to serve some kind of point or give town some kind of lesson going forward, in this case that mechanics aren’t reliable. the only truth and constant I have is that I am town and all u have is my word on that which will never be enough.

I'm not straight up calling you scum right now, am I? I'm just responding to what you posted. It's fine if you don't want to engage on mechanics, but dismissing them outright as unimportant is an odd choice. We all understand that mechanics aren't gospel, but that doesn't mean we should dismiss them out of hand. Whether you're scum or town, it's a weak response.

i mean ur telling me this but I KNOW I AM TOWN. so it’s impossible not to look at this and kind of laugh when we are doing the same thing and beating this dead horse like it will be anything different when i know for a fact it won’t be. again at this point I can only hope it will be some sort of lesson learned

I disagree that this situation is the same as others that came before. We know essential elements regarding how Wryly's role works that we didn't have last time we were interpreting her results. We have specific information about how REF's role and Awesome's role work that were not clear going into this DP, the latter of which was mod confirmed, and both interact specifically with Wryly. They're all in the same Guild together, so they could confirm each other's actions to a greater degree. This isn't meant to reflect on our read of you, but it does (and should) influence POE.

Wryly: *gets two wrong results*

also wryly: “my third result has narrowed Poe and you would be stupid to question its validity”

Banana, I get being frustrated, really I do, but this kind of response isn’t helping your case. Wryly got one result that has since been proven wrong. The second result on Pie was proven right, but only after it became clear how her role actually works.

And this third result comes with important information that has in part been confirmed by Mikal. That includes it being used on a member of Wryly’s own Guild (which would theoretically result in confirmation that REF is not also part of the scum team), on a player who has claimed to functionally be a Miller for Wryly’s role (so it should show that he’s sus despite being in the Guild), and also getting Strengthened by Awesome’s role (which should negate the effect of the Miller and any other roles that might make REF look sus when he isn’t a part of the scum team). It’s not a given that that’s how things played out, but the result matches what we’d expect if that went down and both REF and Awesome were telling the truth. Dismissing all that with a “you got untrustworthy results before” isn’t going to cut it.

I've got to finish up here at work, but I'll come back to this afterward.

I just frankly don't agree with removing Mestari by POE as you have, and I'm still a little unclear on what happened with Awesome and REF, so I can't say I agree with how you've gone through this list yet. I don't mind if you want to keep me in your POE as well, but I legitimately cannot see a world in which SJW is on a scum team with Ants.

For what it's worth my PoE is Whiteflame, Banana, Kohai at this point. I don't think SJW is scum, but I do think it's a possible fake claim. I reckon it's Whiteflame + Kohai, but Banana is obviously the lynch first.

So Mikal has posted a large amount of flavor text talking about SJW and his essential role to the conflict all to fluff up a fake claim? That's what you think could be going on?

Whiteflame

Banana

MagicMan

assuming cop results are true this narrowed the pool to 3 people. I’d laugh my fucking ass off if it was whiteflame / Mag1c

Dude, if you really believe SJW is scum in this game, I don't even know what to tell you. I understand seeing me as plausible TP, but as part of the scum team would be something else.

Mikal told me that it would override cop natures, such as paranoid or naive. He explained it as guaranteeing success, and clarified that there are game conditions (which we now know to be guild alignment) they could effect the results beyond that. I further asked how this would effect investigating godfather or a person who randomizes results and he said strengthening takes prio.

So... Mikal basically confirmed that this role exists in this game? Or were you asking about a hypothetical Strengthener and he just gave away all that would be part of how a Strengthener would work in this game? Like, I believe you at this point, I'm just baffled.

I asked ahead of time if awesome's Strengthener would negate result-randomizing abilities. Mikal confirmed it would.

I did make the almost-fatal error of assuming that for binary investigation results, Rex's role just flips it to the opposite result. It turns out that is how it works, but I didn't know that for sure ahead of time. Rex can answer in full how his role works.

So now the Strengthener functions entirely different from every Strengthener I've ever seen, and like your role, it's mod confirmed to do so. Great, love that, at least this time we know how the fuck it works.

Was trying to narrow our POE by two people. If awesome was scum, he wouldn't really strengthen me, and Rex's miller-esque role would return a fake guilty result. If Rex was scum, then awesome's Strengthener would've yielded me a true guilty result. Either way, a guilty result would indicate one of them was scum and an innocent would indicate they were both town.

So I feel like I'm missing something.

The Strengthener role, to my knowledge, has always focused on manipulation via action, i.e. if someone were to try and RB or Redirect the target, then said Strengthened target would effectively ignore the RB or Redirect and go through as normal. I've never heard of a Strengthener that ignores manipulations of the end result, i.e. effectively turning a Miller Vanilla for the purposes of an investigation. So could you, REF or Awesome clarify how this was supposed to work?

While we're at it, I'd like some clarity on REF's role. I thought the way he'd stated it works is that it randomizes a result on him. Is it now an active Guild Miller? Does he always just read as having a different wincon?

And Whiteflame, I think it's worth considering whether it really makes sense to secure the kill on 2 mafia DP1 to power myself up, especially given that the power up is tied to the queen in particular dying. At the end of the day, the tell I caught was real, it implicated more than one scum, and it's unlikely anyone else was going to find it, so you need a really strong case to argue that it was in s!Mestari's best interest to open the game killing half of his team.

I've stated openly now a couple of times that you're not top of my scum list right now, I just can't dismiss you entirely based on that behavior. If you want to argue that outing two scum players makes you obvious town, be my guest, but I can't say I'm buying into that as fully as I once would.

So this begs the question, do you have a reason to work against the town for your own independent goals?

Your logic is predicated on the mafia structure mirroring the town structure.

Giving you the same response I gave before: I have no incentive to do so.

OKAY I have answers.

We recruited Awesome.

Wryly basically said she was going to investigate but not who and had Awesome strengthen her. He says he did. I confirmed to Mikal that if a non-strengthened cop targeted me, they would get a guilty, and if a strengthened cop targeted me, they would get an innocent. Wryly got an innocent on me. This was all her plan, literally nobody knew who she was targeting. So, If Wryly is the town cop (which everyone accepts as far as I know) it proves that I am town and that Awesome is a strengthener and strengthened Wryly instead of doing something else. There was no way to bus drive the targets as they had no way to know it was me. We did mention Banana as a possible investigative target, so there is the small possibility that it's an Awesome/Banana scum team and they have a redirector and manipulated the result to get a false inno because they thought Banana would be investigated, but unless Banana flips scum Awesome is basically town.

I have questions, but I'll wait for Wryly to be on to discuss them in full.

The thing about the lone wolf argument is that I was still the one who caught a legitimate scum slip leading to the lynching of two mafia members. Even if I'm a lone wolf who doesn't know who his partners are, I still have reason not to point out a very real slip that I have reason to believe will lead to actual lynchings of actual mafia.

The theory goes that there was an incentive for the Lone Wolf to eliminate members of the scum team to power themselves up. That follows from the knowledge that the Ant King activated upon the death of the Ant Queen. So, yes, that would provide a reason for a member of the scum team to work against their partners, particularly if they have an independent wincon but also just if that is required for role activation. Plenty of others have suggested that my character has active incentive to work against the town wincon for my own personal benefit as SJW, so why is this so unlikely?

Further, the rest of the Mafia typically knows who the lone wolf is, so I still wouldn't be described as a fear kill target.

That's not how it's played out in the games where I've seen it. Typically, the Lone Wolf doesn't know who the rest of the scum team is, nor does the rest of the scum team know who they are. Maybe it's played differently where you've done it, but in the couple of games I've seen it on DART, it played with mutual unknowns.

Apologies for the delay, it's been a busy morning and we actually have something legitimately baffling in the lab. Excited to find out what it is.

Anyway, as I said yesterday (and as Pie basically reiterated this morning), I'm expanding my POE and reconsidering a larger set of players this DP. I'm going to give some early thoughts now, and expand on them as discussion ramps up.

If Wryly is scum, then everything involving the specifics of her investigations yesterday and the kinds of results she gets was a lie and that seems like a massive stretch. Wryly, if this was you just actively gaslighting town for like half a DP, well played, but if there's anyone aside from Pie I can write off as almost certainly town, it's you.

Mag1c is still up in the air. He's obviously in our Guild and could be scum, but I doubt it for a couple of reasons that I can't reveal out here. The long story short is I have more reason to townread him than the remaining 5 players, so for the moment at least, he's out of my POE with a chance to move back in.

And that, unfortunately, still leaves 5 players among whom just 2 are scum.

I really want to trust Luna's read on REF, but that's so far the strongest reason I have to townread him and I can't say it's strong enough at this point to keep him out of POE. The role itself is interesting enough that I have trouble believing it's a fake claim, so he's still slight town to me, but only just.

Kohai is a bit of an odd duck. I have a little more reason to townread him than not, but I'll have to go back through his posts and see if that holds up. Didn't like him early in the game, but he's given me more reason to townread him as the game has gone on. Maybe that's just from my experience with him as scum coloring my opinion.

And that leaves three.

Banana and Awesome are the obvious ones, I don't think any of us have strong reasons to buy their claims at this point. I think Awesome's claim looks like something Mikal would make up, but that's about the best I can say about him. And Banana was on the verge of being lynched last DP in direct opposition to Shining who has flipped town, so she's bound to look scummy at this point.

Mestari is tricky. I think a lot of people are quick to write him off as town because he was very effectively scum hunting and helped take down both Thoth and Alyssa. In almost any other game, I would agree and view him as almost certainly town. But this isn't a usual game. The activation of the Ant King mid-game makes me question whether scum have a player who is/was separate from the main scum team and sees a benefit in taking down much of the scum team to boot. The Ant King activated only after the Ant Queen was lynched, so yes, I could see that as either part of their wincon or just a way to take over and run the team on their own. Thoth and Alyssa would probably have flamed out without his help, so I can absolutely see wanting to change things up to put both himself and the remaining member of the scum team in better position. This theory is not a reason to outright scumread him, but it colors my perspective of behaviors I was reading as townie for much of the early game.

Apologies for the delay, my wife did a great job playing tonight.

No surprise that Vader died during the night, honestly just surprised it didn't happen sooner given he'd claimed a protective role. The surprise is that Shining was town. That's such an outlier of a role, I thought we had him pegged. As for Casey, it's a "sorry not sorry" situation. I think it was worth reducing POE, even if it came at a cost. We're on an odd number of players, still room for error, but hopefully we can do better with today's lynch.

As for who that should be, Awesome and Banana are the stand-outs for me coming into this DP, but I'm going to spend some time tomorrow reevaluating my reads from scratch. The only player we 100% know is town is Pie, and though I have good reason to townread both Wryly and Mag1c, that still leaves a lot more uncertainty than I'm comfortable with.

I'm going to leave off this tonight because it's late, will come back tomorrow with more thoughts.

Well, this went up just before my wife’s recital, so I’ll be busy for a hot minute.

How sure are you that your injurer is town

As Pie said, it’s my role. Even if you think I’m TP, I didn’t pick my target.

He said anything that is opposed to my wincon investigates as guilty.

Lovely.

So Shining should’ve been lynched last DP because Helz had a point in his favor, and Pie could’ve continued to hold out on being the Guild Leader because he could’ve just claimed to be in the other Guild and have Mag1c or me confirm that. A role that could have been a big help to town ended up being negative utility because we didn’t understand how to interpret your results and thought you were being actively manipulated. It would still have been possible that your role had been fucked with, but knowing this would have given us something useful and likely led you to use your role NP3 instead of trying for the recruit.

Just… FML.

Maybe you investigate the other guild guilty

Goddamn, I didn't even consider this. That would be sincerely fucked up.

He said keep in mind there are multiple factions and people win with their own wincons, so that can affect my results and is not an incorrect result by design.

Alright, that part's important. You were effectively told that there's not in mechanic that would affect your results, it would have to be applied by someone or something else.

Why would a scum bus driver not have used it to bypass protection if they are this far behind? And if scum don't have a bus driver, how were Wryly's results fucked with two DPs in a row?

You're getting into the weeds of WIFOM with this. We can't know what roles scum has, but roles fucking with Cop results aren't confined to "Bus Driver," so I don't know why there's been so much focus on that role potentially being in play. I'm also unclear on who would even have that role. The Ant King is super fast, and I suspect the other scum is the White Ant, which is faster than a Red Ant canonically. I don't think their speed makes them an obvious Bus Driver, but it's possible.

ehhh...

Like it or not, that's my role and it comes without specific justification. I've mentioned my other role already, and that does come with justification.

So then lynch basically has to be between Whiteflame and Banana to explain the lack of an NK. I don't think SJW is scum, so why are we considering anyone other than Banana?

You'd have to believe that I'm somehow on a scum team full of Ants and that my Mutilate was used in lieu of an NK for the former to be true. I agree that Banana being JK'd could explain the lack of an NK. So could scum having targeted Pie and Vader having protected him.

Okay so Whiteflame, explain to me why you have that power?

There's not a justification for it, it's just an ability I have.

Nevermind, I found it. #210 Mag1c said he had reason to believe whoever used it on Casey was town, not specific to a guild but I'm guessing that's why he believes that.