whiteflame

On that note, where is the most recent claims list? I have had an understanding of the game's structure that I have been holding back because I didn't think there was enough info to explain it yet. I forgot someone claimed the rich kid. At this point there might be enough openly available information to elucidate.

You know, we're overdue for this, so I'll hammer one out. Forgive me if I missed something.

Claimed Living Players:

Wylted: Choi Jong-In - Hunters Guild Leader

Lunatic: Baek Yoonho - White Tiger Guild Leader

Alyssa: Go Gunhee - Widely Admired (1X Lynchproof) / Rally the Hunters (Motivator)

Helz: Yoo Jinhoo

Kohai: Kohai - Currently Vanilla Town / Ascetic upon recruitment

Unknowns:

Awesome/Airmax:

Whiteflame:

ILikePie5:

Banana:

Mag1c:

Wryly:

RexFavilla:

Vader:

Casey Risk:

Mestari:

Shining:

Dead:

Thoth: Red Ant - Roleblocker

don't everyone's roles only work upon recruitment? so if that is the case then she is outed

This is incorrect. From the OP:

There are two types of roles:

Solo Leveling Characters

1. Can use their abilities at any time

Players (Yourself)

1. Have abilities
2. BUT those abilities are only activated after being recruited

So if you are yourself, you can only use your roles when you're recruited. If you're a Solo Leveling character, you can use it any time. That's part of the reason Alyssa's claim looks off, since it looks like she's claiming both a role that requires recruitment to activate and one that doesn't.

isn't it +EV to get lynched because if you get recruited, you only can win with one of the guilds

if you get lynched, you can still win with either guild

Since those town players outside of either Guild also win with town, they don't need to get lynched to win with the larger Guild. Refusing an offer to be recruited is an option, too.

Sorry about the water heater, dude, sounds like a pain in the ass.

If Alyssa flips scum Banana is town, along with I think Rex and Wryly if I'm remembering posts correctly. Basically people who scumread both Thoth and Alyssa before the Thoth wagon got inevitable.

Basically agree. I'm already townreading Banana and Rex, and that would push Wryly over the line.

To expand on the airmax slot being scum. Part of it is mod psych, but I won't get into that. Part of it is Alyssa's defense of Thoth, assuming she is scum. Alyssa is too good to defend an obviously caught scummate, especially so desperately. I think scum!Alyssa only acts the way she did if she feels she has to. That indicates desperation. Going from 4 mafia to 3 DP1 is not cause for desperation. But if your team is inactive, or worse, mia? That calls for desperation and trying to save the ones who are still contributing. Savvy?

That's a fair point, especially given Thoth's flip. Like I said before, I think the Ant Queen and King are the ones to be most concerned about, so scum have likely retained their best PRs. If she felt the need to go to bat for him, then scum had limited options.

Alright, reads before I get back to work:

Given Town:

Luna

Wylted

Town lean:

Rex - Luna trusts him, so I'll lean into that. I haven't got a lot of reason to see him as town yet, though behaviorally he's slight town to me. Also, I laughed my ass off reading that line about me being a prism breaking "wifom into a shifting, glittering rainbow of distracting bullshit." Too good.

Helz - I've liked Helz's contributions both this DP and last, especially with the attempts to focus on the CW

Mestari - largely based on DP1 behavior, I haven't seen anything that really moves the needle in either direction for him this DP.

Slight town:

Banana - I've liked a lot of her reads, and I've at least gotten where she's coming from with regards to Alyssa and Kohai in particular much of this DP.

Null:

Awesome - Just too little activity to go off of so far, and given that he wasn't in DP1, it makes him much harder to read.

Pie - I think he just looks behaviorally like Pie so far. I haven't seen anything that really places him in either camp.

Wryly - Tempted to give her a slight town, but I know that has more to do with her reads on me than anything specific I've seen from her. A lot of what I've seen seems genuine (and I do enjoy the humor), just can't nail it to an affiliation.

Vader - While I really don't love the sussing he's pushing my way this DP, I'm kind of sus by default after so many scum games in a row, so I get it. I haven't got a clean read on him beyond that, though, so null he goes.

Mag1c - Hasn't posted this DP, which doesn't look great. I'm close to putting him in slight scum, but I found the whole "not overthinking this" post about Thoth came off as pretty genuine. I don't think he'd avoid putting a vote down on his scum partner far earlier than that, either.

Slight scum:

Kohai - I'm of two very different minds on Kohai. His early claim lends him some credence, and especially since he claimed himself (and it's pretty clear scum have major characters as fake claims), I think it's more likely he's town on that basis. On the other hand, his efforts to gain towncred this DP based on Thoth's flip seem a little heavy handed and he's been jumping around on susses. He's rather close to null for me, but I can't quite put him in that pile.

Casey - Wanting to end the DP early the last couple of day phases definitely doesn't help, but I can see at least wanting to move on from the stronger scum reads after those have been solidified. Less fond of leaning on Vader as a secondary scum pick, largely on the basis that he just hadn't participated much up to that point. I get focusing on inactives, but not as far as scumreads go.

Shining - Mostly, this comes down to reads and how he's been posting them over the course of this and the last DP. I don't like that he was stand-offish about giving reads on Thoth, and I don't love how he's only posting Alyssa as a scumread this DP, leaving a huge null pool and saying he's "interested" in Pie.

Lean scum:

Alyssa - Too much about her claim just doesn't sit well with me, especially given the whole lynchproof aspect (which doesn't work well with Go Gunhee and may indicate an attempt to retrofit a role to him). Combine that with the whole connection to Thoth and his statement about Mestari and she really does stand apart.

I think at the very least if mass claim is u popular I think we get claims from awesome, shining and banana at the very least. Maybe Vader. But these are the most active slots. Might be good to lock them in so we aren’t constantly worried about scum skating under the radar

I can see pushing for claims from less active players. I'll give my thoughts on those (typing up reads now).

Fair points to a degree. I obviously don’t want to discredit reads and activity due to inactivity because, well, I’m definetly not one to be talking. But to me I’ve seen you contribute a lot more as town before and I do tend to notice that you tend to fall back in bigger games when you are scum and noticed that a bit. Even with the burst of activity, it was more of a wading water from my perspective. I think on my list of scum I pointed out you would be second and it’s not that strong of a read to be honest. It’s not something I’d pursue unless there was mechanical information given

It's a 17-player game and I've had to do a lot more reading to consistently keep up with it. I can't remember a time where we've had a game this big, nor one this active with so many players. But again, if you're sussing my inactivity, that seems like a pretty weak sus, especially while also acknowledging how inactive you've generally been. I don't get the "wading water" perspective on my activity last DP, either.

Do you know of a possible scum character that could fit for 1x lynchproof? I’m even more convinced of w!Alyssa

The only way I can really see that working is if there's some connection to the Ant King being brought back as a shadow by Sung Jin-woo. He does do that (gets renamed Beru), so I guess you could argue that the character "survived" elimination (not really, more like he became a tool of SJW). I don't see a world in which SJW is on the same side as the Ants, but I guess Mikal could have put in some mechanic that functions this way.

So something I brought up in my mason Pm is the idea of pushing a mass claim in dp3.

We already have a decent head start after Thoth, if Alyssa is scum it s a very good start. At this point to me the risk/benefit of this leans towards benefit. As of right now we have no reason to assume mafia can kill more than once per night phase, so at best they can take out one power role that night. If there is a town vig it will help them know who not to kill going forward. And lastly it can help us narrow down third party. To be clear I don’t care about hunting third party too much if it detracts from hunting scum but my guild doesn’t feel the same way understandably.

Especially after the third party apparently chose not to win with town. So without behavioral analysis to link them to Thoth or Alyssa (they can literally just play how they would as town and we wouldn’t know) the best way to nail third party would be to use mech analysis. Getting claims can help us narrow down which claims are less likely to exist versus which claims are mostly likely to be in the game.

I'm hesitant to go straight to massclaiming at that point, but I can see the logic in doing it. I think it will depend in large part on Alyssa's flip and whether we have significantly more information after the NP or not.

Scum Reads

whiteflame - I think that he is kind of lying low. I’ve seen him do this in big games when he is scum and it’s always hard to get a good behavior out of him. It’s a few minor posts challenging a few things and then going out and not really saying much

I don't get this. I was very active at the end of the last DP, and while I realize I've had gulfs in my activity on here, it's not like I've just been "lying low" and not drawing attention to myself. This all seems to come down to my not being active enough rather than anything wrong with my behavior.

Eh actually, just kill me off already..

Really don't like this. Is there a reason you're just folding under the pressure now beyond what looks like a valid inconsistency between your statements? If you really want to sell that you're town, especially with room for another role confirmation, you should be defending yourself not just assuming you'll eventually be lynched regardless.

i dont like that u keep bringing this up despite having the worst argument for the wagon. like tell us you want town cred for it and then u give us a reason to suspect your intent wasn't genuine combined with being on him for the weakest reason ya know

I agree that he's trying to garner a bit too much from being on the right wagon last DP. I can see Kohai doing it to score town cred regardless of affiliation, but it rubs me the wrong way.

States he doesn’t like Mestari’s tone, cited his confession, voted him, pressured others to vote him, pressured him into a full claim and then quickly drops it

I don't get this take on Pie. He was very clear that he had reason to sus you at the time, and Pie doesn't just tunnel as scum or town, so this is a common meta for him.

I've been busy today. Give me a bit to catch up and I'll give reads.

Good catch. Think Alyssa could be the ant king?

She's still in my sus pile, and that's the character that would make the most sense to be "Popular" out of the remaining major Ants, so it makes logical sense to me.

The confirmation of Alyssa's role at least clarifies that she has it, though as others have already said, that doesn't make her town.

Yeah. The last game Mikal’s popular justification was because of how hard it is for them to be defeated. The question is is there a possible scum character candidate that this can fit with

That would be the Ant King. He basically wipes out the vast majority of the Hunters that arrive at Jeju Island and then gets in a fight with Sung Jin-woo that caps off the series. Without him, it would have been game over for the team.

the question does something similar make sense for mafia

Are you asking if there's a character who would make sense to have the "Popular" role on the scum team? I'd say that depends on how much weight you give the Ant King as a character. He did draw a lot of attention back when he started showing up. That being said, I wouldn't say anyone's a slam dunk for it.

In the moment? Someone in my town pile who had an ability that a) they can use and b) would benefit from being doubled. Willing to budge on the town pile if they're in my null pile and their claim is believable.

In retrospect, they also kinda can't be in a guild unless I think that Luna/Wylted aren't recruiting that night, otherwise it doesn't do anything.

I'll give you that you wouldn't have known your target's roles or whether they could even be doubled. I'll also give you that there's a decent chance no one in either Guild used a role and both went for a recruit. That being said, I don't see the harm in just targeting one of the Guild Leaders at minimum on the off chance that they use a role, so I'm wondering why you didn't do that.

It's less of a "no strong enough town reads" and more of a "no good targets".

Elaborate on this, please. What would have made a "good target"?

I'm Go Gunhee, the Beloved Chairman

I'm the Chairman of the Hunter's Association so I inspire confidence in a bunch of people. My composure and belief in humanity pushes others to exceed their limits. Because people believe in me, they fight harder as a result.

This tracks. Figured Go Gunhee was in this game considering how big of a role he plays in the world an how he tries to recruit SJW (initially thought he'd be head of one of the two Guilds doing the recruiting).

I have two abilities:

First is called Widely Admired - I require one additional vote beyond the normal majority to be eliminated during the day phase. Once this ability triggers, the vote count resets and this ability is consumed.

Main thing that bugs me about this one is that it's an external perception. He may be admired by his subordinates in the show, but he's mainly "widely admired" by the fanbase (I like him pretty well myself). Makes sense that that would yield "Popular," just seems a little off.

Second is called Rally the Hunters - Each night, I can target one player and, if they have a night action they can take, they can use that night action an additional time that night.

I believe that he'd have this role, I have more trouble buying that you'd just not use it last NP. You had no one you had a strong enough townlean on to feel confident in Motivating them? That could have confirmed your role. I get uncertainty playing into the decision and there being some potential role fuckery, but it feels like the loss of not doing anything at all is greater.

You were a relatively late comer to the Thoth wagon. I’ll reread when I get home

You might remember from previous games that I'm slow to join any wagon. My read on him was pretty consistently scummy and got worse after he claimed his character, but fair enough that I didn't back it up with a vote.

I want your claim. The way he interacted with you at EOD feels quite pairing

Going to need a better reason than that to give it. I get seeing all that as distancing, but you’d have to believe our entire argument beforehand was staged and that I started bussing him very early.

And wouldn't you know it, Thoth was scum. Surprised he hung on so long calling himself town even after he'd been lynched. Not too surprised to see that scum are various varieties of Ants (whoever's the Ant King and Ant Queen are the major concerns there).

I'll be able to post more in a little bit, getting dinner.

Alright, I'm off as well for the night. Thoth can take his time responding to individual points he's glossed over or missed.

And yeah, it really has been a long one. Great to see so many people have been engaged and keeping up... he says knowing he hasn't had the easiest time doing just that

I'm just gonna vote Thoth at the end of this. I don't even see the point in continuing after Shining's claim at this point. I see the people not wanting Thoth at L-1 and I'll wait just to see Airmax this DP.

Yeah, I'm in the same boat. I think it's a given that Thoth is the lynch this DP and I'm good with being one of the final votes, but I'm good waiting for whatever we can get from Airmax and Shining with the remaining time. Not expecting anything from the former, but you never know.

You know what? As much as I just want Shining BTFO'd for easy self-pres and to inactivate an inactive, whiteflame's hardon for pushing my claim as though it's on par with Leprechaun from Suikoden shows mala fide. This is not OMGUS.

Literally an OMGUS as you VTL'd me right after this, but call it whatever you want.

Yeah, I held off on it because I wasn't sure that I was going to be lynched (I'm still not) and, thinking Jinwoo was town's Big Good, I would have considered taking my list to the grave anyway.

So you never questioned why you would have received a list of players who could be Jin-woo if he "was town's Big Good"? You'd think you would have considered alternative explanations for why you received that information.

Alyssa for her absurd defense of me, which was possibly because she has an ability that told me who I am, which would make even more sense if she's a 3P and needed to get rid of me than it would if she were town and her information made us like paired Emissaries. Why would she defend me? Because she wanted to look extra good and buddy-buddy knowing she was in my PoE after she flipped 3P. That's a possibility, anyway. I don't know whether or not she has information about my role or what information she has if so. Helz seems behaviorally town but could be 3P. I'm confident he's not scum. There's too little information from Rex for me to say how much I sus him.

Alright, so you have no idea which of them could be Jin-woo. Even if you're right that one or more of them is scum or a TP, their flip does not necessarily confirm you, so at best, you're fishing since you don't have any clue which of them it is.

No, of course not. Hence why I never hard-claimed my role as confirmable. But it very much could have ended up confirming me if I claimed my PoE and then one of them flipped Jinwoo. I'm a lot of things, but I'm not an Oracle.

Doesn't seem like a workable strategy when you're already the center of attention and asking for some rather specific eliminations under the pretense that one of them could be Jin-woo. Especially odd since the one who you scumread most is chiefly being sussed over statements you've made.

Jinwoo is an S-rank Hunter, why wouldn't he have an ability that kills all the Mafia and makes Town win instantly? You're not letting anything past the checkpoint of, "it's not the role I would come up with for this character".

Again, not responsive to my point, but I've repeated it twice already and I'm not expecting a response.

Check out this post from day phase 2 of Suikoden. This is what you are doing. And before you say that I was scum in that game, Mikal was still railing against a townie.

Unlike Mikal, I'm not calling out a single role that seems off from what I would expect. I'm pointing to multiple points that don't make sense with your character thematically or logically, several of which you still haven't addressed. I just don't see a world in which Mikal included this character and attached these roles to her.

I have to admit, you strike me as being more aggro than usual, and much stricter about theme adherence. Not a scumread, just a remark.

Helps that I can finally wield this theme knowledge. Felt like I've been at odds about it for quite a while ever since Thoth initially claimed. The rest of his claim rubbed me all kinds of wrong. If I'm wrong about him, completely understand if I'm the lynch next DP, but this is just ridiculous.

It's confirmable if one of Helz, Alyssa, and Rex flip Jinwoo while I'm alive, but your hardon for mislynching me is clearly not interested in that.

Let's unpack this.

You held off on providing this information for a good long while, even when the wagon on you got precariously close to a lynch. You then reveal it and point in three different directions all at once, claiming that one of them has to be Jin-woo. Given that there is no scum NK tonight, that means you're relying on a lynch or other NK to flip them. Who are you sussing in this pool? And are you honestly expecting us to eliminate all of them to vindicate you?

Isn't he the protagonist? So I'm guessing he doesn't have any history of working against town either, or at least not to the extent that the town characters in this game would want to kill him in the show. This re-proves my point about how your lorehammer is making you see everything as a justification-shaped nail.

This just straight up doesn't respond to my point. You are his sister. You know his identity in the show, and while others might be uncertain, you of all people would not be. Why would you, who lives with Jin-woo, have a list of three names that could each potentially be Jin-woo?

If you people are going to fucking scumread me, at least have the common decency to do it for thinking through my claim enough to make it fit so well with everything that's come up so far and having quick responses to y'all's points against it.

Yeah, it's clear you know enough about the character to cite specific details and use them to inform specific roles. Well done. That doesn't mean it's thematically consistent in terms of how it plays with other roles, nor that the Informed role makes any kind of sense.

Also in world where Thoth is truthful and Jin-woo is a neutral 3p role this makes it significantly harder for the 3p to win

Another good point.