whiteflame

This is a 50/50 crapshoot but Lunatic has the stronger character claim

I'm tempted to just hammer and have the game over with but I hate to decide on a tired brain

I get if that's where you're going with it, made the same call on Luthen and I'm just shocked I was wrong. Never know what characters scum might have asked Savant about I guess.

I neve really scum read her, just was open minded to it, so not sure why you are accusing me of that.

Keeping her in POE isn't scumreading, but you were doing it. Just saying, keeping options open at all doesn't make sense at this stage.

I was using the logic to clear you for most of the damn game.

Tbf, it doesn't really make sense for either of us. Kind of shocked you'd ride this out.

To give you a bit more WIFOM to add to your analysis, whiteflame pretty much insta voted me. I was only leaning him, I was open minded to you being scum as well, which shows I am genuinely un informed.

Yes, voting you was pretty obvious because I have mechanical information to support Wryly's role claim. It would be far more surprising if I waffled on my clear townread from the last two DPs at this point. What I don't get is how Wryly could have been scum from your perspective, given my confirmation of her role.

Ruyi Zhan, legend of zelda, chicago bears, how in the hell do you roll scum so friggin much lmao

I roll it a lot, but three games back-to-back would be legit ridiculous and I'd have quit the moment Kohai flamed out.

Just where I like to be, at LYLO with two dudes who are not mechanically confirmed.

Yep, you're in the driver's seat and this car's headed for a cliff. Who are you reenacting Thelma and Louise with?

Actually, I'm pretty solid on this, and from everyone else's perspective, it's either me or Luna at this point. I can't see a quickhammer happening here.

VTL Luna

Well, POE was down to Thoth and Luna and here we are.

We've got just under 2 days to discuss it, but Wryly is heavily confirmed at this point. The Cassian Andor claim aside (MC of the series), she's also confirmed BG by my role. I just can't see a world in which Wryly's scum, so it's Luna by default. Risky claiming the JOAT, I'll give you that.

mjolnir did not find me worthy 😭

That’s the hammer’s problem. It was never good enough for you.

Damn, didn’t realize you wanted that. Sorry, going all Thor on you here.

The long and short of it is that my POE is mainly between Luna and Thoth. The only alternative is that Banana is scum, and that would require me to believe that Savant gave scum this specific role just to be townread for using it. I find that harder to believe, so I'm treating Banana as town at this point.

Between Luna and Thoth, it's mainly a matter of what happened during the last NP that's bothering me. Neither of them have mechanical confirmation, but Thoth's is particularly jarring given the lack of support for his Vig, which should have been confirmed last night. If scum opted not to do the NK, that would be baffling since that would have put them at MYLO. I don't think they opted to kill Mago at the same time he did, so either they made the choice to pass on the NK, or Thoth is scum and this is his cover. I agree with him that Kohai likely didn't sign off on a fake Vig strategy, but it doesn't look like Kohai was thinking through his strategy much, either.

So if the choice is between two unconfirmed players, I'm going to pick the one who should be confirmed over the one who might have been.

VTL Thoth

I’m here, just gimme a few minutes to write out my thoughts.

I'd also like to get a lynch off by tonight if possible

Right now, we're at just over 2 days remaining in the DP, and I think we should aim to leave roughly 2 days in case we have another DP to get through. From what I'm seeing, Thoth and Luna want to lynch each other and Banana wants to lynch Thoth. That leaves us at an effective 2-1 in favor of lynching Thoth. Where are you leaning?

The info it gives helps either faction, and while I haven't been around here that long, I've never seen it before, so I don't know if it's odder/more odd [unsure of correct comparative form] as town or as scum. My biggest qualm with scumreading your role is that I bet you would have claimed something similar but simpler. Anyone know roles that are similar to Confidant but not quite the same? Preferably one that doesn't make you lose life equal to its converted mana cost.

It’s new to me, too. It’s essentially a drastically weakened Role Cop, that’s the closest role I can relate it to.

Just a quick passing thought. Is it possible that scum straight-claimed, and one of the claimed characters is scum because they were sided with the Empire at some point during the show or its background? Based on what I understand from y'all, no outstanding character claims are weak enough that scum were liable to even ask about them unless they asked as a last-ditch resort and got lucky.

No one that outright betrayed the Rebels anyway. Saw is a little mentally unstable, but he’s a Rebel to his core. Luthen is often viewed as extreme and many in the Rebellion don’t trust him, but he’s loyal to the cause. Bix is eventually forced to give up information under torture, but she hates the Empire. Cassian takes a while to come around to their cause, but is a full convert to the Rebels by the end of S1. And Mon has an incredibly long track record of working with the Rebels through the show and movies since she’s the only character we see in the original trilogy out of these.

Because you don't know all the roles that are in the game, regardless of whether you are lying or not? I know you said yourself that not all of them are in the game, but the probability of a fake list being recognized as fake would increase as more roles kept flipping, assuming they weren't coincidentally in the game.

And technically I suppose it's possible that your role could be scum-aligned.

By the point that I'd claimed, everyone else already had, so unless you believe someone was lying about their role claim, I didn't have much basis for avoiding just posting the list if I could. Literally had it spelled out for me.

I won't deny the latter, though it would be a very odd scum role.

I think the chance of her being scum is very low, but she is not mechanically town-confirmed. To me, PoE means people who aren't proven town. In that sense, I'd even say wylted was barely in my PoE. I suppose what I think PoE means may not be what y'all think it means.

If you believe I'm scum, then Wryly is town because I've confirmed her. If you believe she's scum, then somehow I've confirmed that she's the BG inaccurately, which means there's some mechanic in the game that changes my feedback. I get that there's no mechanical confirmation of her role, but for a role cop-light role like mine to have a highly specific mafia counter would be baffling. I can see that she's your strongest townread so I won't belabor the point, but I can't imagine a scenario where she's scum here from your perspective.

Is Luthen the main character?

The MC is Cassian Andor (Wryly's character claim), but Luthen isn't far off. He masterminds a lot of what happens in the series and essentially directs most of Cassian's actions.

If being modkilled is the only consequence for posting your Confidant list, maybe today or tomorrow you should eat the modkill and post it.

I'd really prefer not to just fall on that sword, especially for a list that I was told includes several roles that are not in this game.

I think Confidant is at high risk of being BS, especially with the detail about modkilling being a convenient excuse to not post the list. Almost feels like trying to pocket Wryly, so funny how WF brought up the possibility of playing as scum by townreading someone.

If it's just pure BS, then why wouldn't I post the list? It's an easy way to throw sus at someone by leaving a role out or just earning some towncred by giving a list that includes everyone. I would have had time to make some shit up if I really wanted to. Posting the list is basically posting the contents of my PM, so yes, that would provoke a mod kill.

As for pocketing Wryly, recall that she had already claimed the MC of the show and, at the time, was the sole protective claim in the game. I don't think giving more reason to townread her did much to move the needle, whether in all your perceptions of her or in her perception of me. Weird pick if that was my aim.

It’s unfortunate that nobody is out of my PoE. I like to trust at least one person over throwing shade everywhere. Feels counterproductive.

Even Wryly's still in your POE? How do you square that?

Lol, I really misunderstood that. That's weaker than I thought and is more believable.

I had to ask a lot of questions before I realized I'd had the wrong impression of how it worked for a while, so I get it.

Really want to hear from Banana and Thoth here

Their absence is pretty confounding. Tagging them both.

This DP is moving slower than I'd like. wylted is probably screaming at us from the peanut gallery

No doubt. Still, we've got just under 3 days to do all this, and I think as long as we have at least a couple of days for the next DP, we should be good. I was hoping to have the lynch figured out before I go to bed tonight, not sure if that will happen.

I picked a role at the start of the game and I can select a different target each DP and ask whether they are that role. I don't get to change my selection of role, just the player I choose.

I thought you said you used it dp1 on castin. I know you mean her not Casey lol.

so if not who did you target night one? Also how is using it pointless? You can confirm someone can’t you? Or am i not understanding your role?

Yeah, I'm losing steam a bit tonight, my bad. I used it DP1 on Thoth, got a negative result, and used it on Wryly DP2 after she claimed and got a positive result. I can re-use it on someone else, but all it would do is confirm that they are not the BG.

Already asked Savant, he confirmed

Yeah, he just confirmed to me as well. It's a broken role, but I'll take it.

savant just confirmed that the 1 v 1 is still valid with magos vote.

So yeah you can just vote me or Thoth here whoever you think is scummier, and either end the game in the next phase or no lynch and do the 1 v 1 scenario to be safe. Theres always the possibility Whiteflame is scum so no lynching would potentially eliminate that possibility next day phase

If that's the case, then the Restless Spirit will continue to last into later DPs and count towards parity. I'll have to ask Savant about that, but if it's true, then that's a very different Restless Spirit than I've ever encountered, but assuming that's the case, a no lynch is not a possible outcome for a DP, since it said in the OP that we have to lynch every DP or the DP will not end. So if we can somehow reach 1v1, it won't be through a NL.

Who did you target with your role last day phase and who are you targeting this day phase?

I did say I targeted Casey last DP and I got a positive result, so Casey's role is the BG. I haven't used it yet this DP since it seemed kind of pointless.

Decent point that Thoth claimed after wylted, but I sort of just meant an even night role makes sense if Savant also supplied an odd night role. 

There’s a symmetry to it, but the balance is mainly a modpsych question. I can see the case for it, but it’s a mechanical implication at best.

Lunatic is clearly leaning Thoth. Are you also leaning that way, then?

I’d say both of them have the same problem I do: a lack of mechanical support for our claims. That’s what you (being the only protective role and confirmed by my role) and Banana (having confirmed her role) have over us. I tend to focus most on mechanical confirmation, especially in the absence of strong behavioral information. Thoth having a vote up early on Kohai is a point in his favor. Lunatic claiming a more centrally important character much earlier than Thoth is a point in his. Maybe Luna’s third role could confirm him, though he hasn’t suggested that yet. Both say they targeted Magoroth, too. So the long and short of it is that I’m still deciding, though I was initially leaning Thoth.

He was a mislynch target, so I'll argue they had slim reason to NK him other than to incriminate Thoth or for Thoth to mount his "I did nightvig!" defense. As for Mago's vote, either they keep him alive and he lives to vote on LYLO, or they kill him and he still votes in LYLO. There was no way to remove his voting power, just to remove him from counting toward parity.

Fair points. I can see a reason in there for why scum might not have wanted Mago to survive past last DP. His vote should only last through this DP.

You could argue the even night aspect gives scum some reprieve, yes, but I do think his Even Night Vigilante receives some support from wylted's Odd Night Martyr. As for bussing, Thoth was the second to vote Kohai after Rex, which is an early-ish bus -- unless he was simply busy for the rest of the day phase, which is possible.

Except that Thoth claimed his was Even Night after Wylted claimed his role. His claim supported Wylted’s, not so much the other way around beyond the fact that they claimed different nights. He would have had to start bussing pretty early.

Her role seems to be basically a Popularizer, so we should just decide on someone for her to Popularize to prove she's not a JOAT. Unless JOATs are sometimes given 2x's in their utility belts, which I've never seen.

Wouldn't be a first, I’ve done it in my games, but I take your point.

Luthen, Bix, Mon Mothma, and Saw Gerrera are all solid character claims.

I agree, though I think Luthen’s more central to Andor’s plot.

Nothing low about it if it cinches a win for the scum team.

Can’t say I’ve ever told my partner to bus himself, but I guess there has to be a first time for everything.

It's plausible that scum waived to incriminate Thoth, though whether they would do that when it gives town a whole extra day phase is something I need to think more on.

They could also have just targeted Magoroth right along with Thoth, though that's questionable given the Restless Spirit role. They'd have to be pretty sure that Mago would vote in a way that helps them to go to that extent.

It's also possible Thoth is scum, has no night vig, and NK'd Mago so he could push through the argument that he did use it but scum is conspiring to foil his role confirmation. I hesitate to believe that, though. Thoth was pretty firm that wylted was town even when the tide of the vote was going against wylted, and he was the second person to vote Kohai, fairly early in the DP.

It would essentially just be a fake claim to cover for an NK. The Even Night aspect gave him a reprieve from proving his role NP1 and will give him another NP3, so we'd only have to buy it for NP2. On townreading Wylted, I get your point, but that's a WIFOM argument. It would not be a first for many of us, myself included, to play as scum by strongly townreading another player who others were sussing. As for VTLing Kohai, it's practically a given at this point that someone bussed him, just a question of when and how much.

Lunatic and whiteflame's roles remain unconfirmed and they are very much in the POE. I am putting banana aside for now. I agree with Lunatic that Chauffeur and Petitioner seem like a weak scum team -- especially considering that would mean town was loaded with an Inventor, day cop, Bodyguard, JOAT, Night Vig, Dead Voter, and Martyr -- unless Banana is a JOAT, and we can still verify that her Petitioner wasn't a 1x.

I think it's fair to have us both in POE for obvious reasons. I'm more skeptical of setting Banana aside. It would not be a first for a mod to give scum a very confirmable role just to ensure they get towncred. It's odd enough that I don't think it's the likeliest explanation, but I can't rule her out yet. She could still have multiple roles we're unaware of.

In Lunatic's case, he may have just been too late to stop the claim, as I've said before; it happened fast after he subbed in. He's marshaled some arguments against this, but they amount to some WIFOM and a few relevant points -- namely that it's a very silly scum claim that he's going to struggle to even confirm. And indeed he watched only himself and roleblocked a dead man. JOAT and Inventor remain an eyebrow-raising combo.

The main argument in Luna's favor for me is that he's claimed Luthen. I can't say the JOAT does much to move the needle and I see your point on that.

In whiteflame's case, maybe I'm approaching this wrong -- maybe he saw Kohai's demise was inevitable and even advised him to claim Strengthener so he could farm some towncred with a quick hammer. I have to imagine scum!whiteflame cringing when he saw Kohai's "haha I'm scum come in wolf chat Mago" jokes, though.

I mean, it's WIFOM all the way down with Kohai. It would be a new low for me as scum to actively tell my partner to flame out like that, but I suppose anything's possible.

I dont think we are in lylo yet man, we still have two mislynches til we lose

Given that we know there’s one scum left and there are 5 of us, I agree, we aren’t at LYLO, since we should be at 4-1. We could have been at MYLO if both scum and Thoth had killed separate targets, since that would have put us at 3-1.

I’m running around a good bit this morning/early afternoon, but I’ll give my two cents.

So with Mago as the only death and no mechanism other than Luna’s available to stop an NK, there are only two possibilities here. Either scum chose to waive the NK, which would have put the game at MYLO, or they NK’d Mago.

Regardless, since both Thoth and Luna claim to have targeted Mago, we don’t have any role confirmation for either of them. Either Thoth coincidentally shot the same target as scum last night, or he’s lying about his role. I’m still trying to figure out which it is because that Vig claim would be a pretty ballsy fake claim if he’s scum. Still, harder to believe that Luna would fake the JOAT despite the lack of its confirmation. In part, that’s just my strong view that Luthen has to be a character in this game. Saw is a little less certain, important though he is.

Going to think on this and eat something, then I’ll come back and clarify my position. I’m tagging Magoroth as a reminder that he can still post a vote, but only when he’s sure. You’ve got one shot at your decision, so best to wait until we’ve talked it out.

Did you use your Vig? I see one NK.

So we have around 3 days and 10 hours left and I’m not sure why Wylted is this concerned about remaining time, particularly since we’re at a point where most of our POEs align. The rest of the game seems straightforward to me:

We lynch Wylted this DP.

Thoth shoots someone during the NP, which confirms his role and further reduces POE.

Luna uses one of his remaining roles, which hopefully is successful.

The remainder - between me, Mago and Banana, depending on who is shot during the NP - become the focus for next DP at MYLO.

More than 3 days to figure it out from there. I don’t see the problem, but if we want to move things along, I’m fine getting through this DP so that we can execute on the rest. Thoth, I don’t mind being your target and letting you guys figure out the rest next DP, but that’s up to you.

VTL Wylted

This is an interesting take because my initial assumption was that he was town reading wylted for being even because he was an odd night role. Regardless, I still am finding wylted scummy for the way he played his role combined with his aggressive stance on getting to mylo by completely random lynching.

I was pretty sure a large part of his reason for townreading Wylted was that he believed Savant had put some role in the game to counter his Vig. Wylted's initial role claim would have meant that shooting him would impact the game (albeit not in the way Thoth initially suggested). With them being on opposite nights, there is apparently no impact to his shooting Wylted at this point.

I get why Wylted's been rushing things, but I agree that I don't like the way he's been doing it.

I am taking this with a big grain of salt, since you were the last to claim your role and result. Town confirming someone to gain town cred yourself (especially when they are the only protective role) isn't a bad gamble, as it was unlikely she would have been a lynch target for scum anyways.

I didn't say it's a strong reason to townread me, I said it's a strong reason to townread her. Even if I'm lying, I'm scum and she's still town.

Noted, but we don't yet know all of Lunatic's abilities, and giving Batman's utility belt to two players seems heavy-handed, even if one of them did have to give his away blind

It's a lot of roles to give two town players, I'll grant that.