whiteflame

Like Rubio was a 2016 opponent and Cruz also was

Yeah, starting to look like former opponents-turned-allies. Cruz would fit that bill alongside Rubio.

Yes but if rex didn't move that confirms mago as scum, if he did move we can safely lynch shiny

Not that I'm leaning towards him atm, but if REF did move, why couldn't it be Mag1c? I don't think he'd try this with his Messenger claim, and it's possible he confirms himself tonight (maybe reason enough on its own to leave him this DP), but you're saying you've been townreading him and I'm trying to get a bead on that.

I said that was my town pile headed into NP1. Yknow, before Thoth died.

Misread that, my apologies.

I would admit it would be a ballsy play, but assuming you are scum, you just saw your buddy get lynched. Sounds like a good enough time to pull a gambit.

It would be a hell of a ploy, but fair enough.

So just a few thoughts behaviorally for all three of them:

Shining: Very little incentive to NK Kohai given that he mentioned in post #356 that he was townlocking Shining based on his character claim. Said he didn't see Kohai as "particularly scummy" in #305, but was among the first to call out the balance of a game with a Motion Detector, JOAT with a Cop shot an a Cop in post #328 and calls out outing his role largely unprompted (Kohai was not at L-1 when he claimed Cop) in #330. It's possible this is just Shining bussing him, but the lack of a vote on Kohai by the end of the DP makes that more difficult to believe. Not consistent with bussing I've seen from him previously.

Magoroth: Posted the vote that seemed to trigger Kohai's role claim. Gave himself an out towards the end of the DP saying that there could be "[m]ultiple cops" in post #369, though this was after the hammer, as was his follow up #376 (which came after I VTL'd unnecessarily). Both are odd choices, but if he's scum, they're ways to stand out that don't make a lot of sense given that he'd be aware they didn't change anything. Don't see much in the way of interaction with Thoth or indications of how they perceived each other. It's weird that he's focused on a potential SK when he should have a very good clue that scum is either Shining or Mag1c, and the push for a massclaim seems a little odd, but it all seems more paranoid than anything.

Mag1c: Vanished just before Kohai claimed Cop and didn't return before the end of the DP (he did say he was going to play Minecraft). Had Thoth among his town picks for much of last DP, but also mentioned at the top of this DP in post #5 that Thoth is in his town pool despite being... dead. Yep, he's in the pool alright, face down. Weird thing to say if he's scum and had killed Thoth himself, but I guess this could be a case of him pretending he hadn't seen it. Mag1c also discussed Thoth quite a bit over the course of the DP, mainly in relation to who was sussing him (or not) and why.

Still thinking on all this, just trying to get my thoughts together.

Thats WIFOM, but keep in mind I am just dotting my i and crossing my t. You are probably town, and if so, its basically autowin.

It's not WIFOM to say that I could have been visited during the night, which would have prevented my Dream. That's just mechanics. The question is whether I'd take that risk with unclaimed players left in the game who could immediately disprove it. I know Luna took that risk a while back and it paid off for him as scum, so it would be possible, I'll grant that.

I am considering just lynching you today.

If you think I'd pull this stunt, feel free to try to convince others. You'll still have two shots to take out scum since it's likely 6-1 (assuming no TP shenanigans), so at least you'll have my flip to inform the next two.

I really don't care, but I do think caution should be considered, given you might be scum.

Which would mean I risked having been visited by a number of unclaimed players who could call me out on my results, but fair enough. I already said I could be scum. Given your townread on Magoroth, you should be deciding between pursuing me and Mag1c.

I’m setting Magoroth aside entirely until we get both Mag1c and Shining’s full claims and night actions.

I’m going to say we set aside the mass claim idea for the moment and get full claims from everyone in my Dream pool first, starting with the only person who hasn’t claimed at all:

VTL Mag1c

I understand being paranoid about a TP, but especially as one of the targets in my Dream pool, you should have more incentive to lynch known scum with a 50-50 shot than just hoping we land on a bad fake claim from a TP.

Maybe there’s value in getting their claims, but unless they gave a remarkably silly claim, I can’t think of any reason why we’d lynch Banana or REF this DP.

Actually, I think we should have a mass claim at this point.

I don’t see the point in REF or Banana full claiming at this point. If we’re concerned about a TP, that’s fine, but we are either discussing lynching in my Dream pool or lynching me if people don’t trust my result. Priority should be eliminating scum.

I went back to my PM and checked. It specifically says at least one of those players will be mafia, not just non-town.

What does dreaming do? 

I assume it gives you three names and at least one is guaranteed to be non-Town?

Yes, that’s correct. If I’d been visited during the night, I wouldn’t have gotten results.

I’m going to do a deeper dive into Mag1c and Shining in particular when I get home, but given that Shining claimed Trump already, I’ll almost certainly be seeking Mag1c’s claim this DP.

You can’t possibly say this after last game.

We literally just caught Kohai on a direct CC, so yes, I’m considering it. It’s a pseudo-CC and not a direct one, so I won’t treat this as proof positive, I’m just giving my thoughts on the info we have.

1x cop 1xwatcher and 1x tracker

That Motion Detector is looking precarious with your Watcher and Tracker shots.

Well, I’ll start this DP off with my claim and some info:

I am Mike Lindell, political activist, founded MyPillow. I’m the Dreamer. My Dream was successful last night and contained 3 names:

Shining, Magoroth, and Mag1cman.

This is a large part of the reason Kohai’s straight Cop claim immediately set off alarm bells and why I found Wylted’s JOAT more believable.

Needless to say, this is my POE.

Current Games:

ILikePie5 - MAGA Mafia

Sign-ups:

REF - Ruyi Zhuan Mafia

In the Hopper:

Lunatic - Ted Lasso Mafia

Kohai - open setup uPick 

Savant - Andor Mafia

Mag1cman

Thoth

Banana

Magoroth - Corleone Mafia

whiteflame - Frieren Mafia

On Hold:

AnonymousIcon

Wylted - Lulsec

Mikal

I'm going to have absolutely no clue about the theme and I'm /in

I've gone back and counted and there are already 5 votes on him, but I'll add mine anyway:

VTL Kohai

Kohai would have had to hard claim Cop blind in the hopes that it would work out. That's ballsy, but possible, particularly if scum didn't get two good roles to claim from their questions (could have spent those questions on character claims or on roles that are in the game). He can't have asked Pie about the role because I don't think Pie's the kind of mod who would give scum questions to ask and then tell them a Cop is available when someone has it in their JOAT role set. He tends to be pretty straight about this stuff.

I'm not voting wylted at this point. If he's willing to CC this with a JOAT claim, it's his real claim, otherwise he's just guaranteeing his lynch next DP if Kohai flips town.

So we'll see what happens, but I just don't buy that Kohai's town.

It's a JOAT with a 1x cop I guess the character is fine to claim. I am sheriff Joe Arpaio

That makes way more sense as a Cop than Rubio. Also fits with your statement that he was a public official (assumed earlier this meant a politician).

We've gotten uncomfortably many hard-claims and needlessly precise soft-claims today. No more claims until tomorrow.

Agreed. Kinda wish Magoroth hadn't been pushed to claim (I recognize I'm part of the problem there) given Kohai's claim and the CC from wylted.

Would you call a Tracker or Watcher claim a CC to Motion Detector?

Pseudo-CC, so basically yes.

Wylted literally was ready to lynch Donald Trump. Even after Shinning claimed Trump he still wanted to vote him

So you're arguing that wylted would CC you, which automatically puts a target on him if you flip town? Explain that to me.

If Rubio is a real claim I think there is a good chance whoever Ted Cruz is is also scum.

That would be Magoroth. The lack of a CC on his Motion Detector claim gives him some cover. Speaking of:

Unvote

Nevermind, I just remembered he claimed Marco Rubio, not Trump. More believable there.

I'm just catching up and... yep, I have no idea what Kohai's plan was here. Can't imagine Wylted claiming a JOAT with a Cop as a CC after asking those questions, but I can imagine scum burning their questions on characters, finding out Trump isn't in the game, and just going for it. I'd like to fully catch up first, but yeah, seems like scum to me.

I promise I will be on for the last couple of hours of the DP, but its going to be a bit before I can catch up.

My theory is that scum is disgraced MAGA people. Maybe Pence and MTG. I doubt Pie would make democrats scum, but whatever.

I could see that.

I won't full claim, but I'll character claim. I am Donald Trump.

Don't expect a CC will happen, so:

Unvote

There is a non-zero probability that DT and JD Vance are the scum team, but as I said earlier, I don't see why Pie would give them 4 questions if those were the scum team's actual characters. All they'd need to do is just claim their characters and hide in plain sight.

As it stands, I think I'd like Magoroth's full claim over anyone else. It's pretty obvious who he is and I have at least some reason to believe he would work with the theme split, but that doesn't mean he's lock town since scum probably has at least decent fake character claims from their questions. So that's where I'm putting my vote:

VTL Magoroth