whiteflame

1. Thoth - Role PM mentions a lot of stuff from 2016 election - ??

2. Magoroth - ?? - ??

3. Mag1cman - ?? - ??

4. Whiteflame - not in the Trump administration, but are in Trump's orbit - ??

5. Kohai - major part of the Trump admin and loyal supporter - ??

6. REF - ?? - ??

7. Shining - Currently in Trump Admin - ??

8. Banana - ?? - ??

9. Wylted - public official, not in the Trump administration, but in Trump's orbit - ??

Just adding what I gleaned from Wylted's post #42. I believe that's accurate.

why are we softing flavour when scum can ask questions about the flavour?

They can ask questions about specific characters and roles, not about flavor. I'm not asking for people to out their characters.

1. Thoth - Role PM mentions a lot of stuff from 2016 election - ??

2. Magoroth - ?? - ??

3. Mag1cman - currently in the Trump administration - ??

4. Whiteflame - not in the Trump administration, but are in Trump's orbit - ??

5. Kohai - major part of the Trump admin and loyal supporter - ??

6. REF - ?? - ??

7. Shining - ?? - ??

8. Banana - ?? - ??

9. Wylted - ?? - ??

In terms of early reads:

I'm townreading Thoth a bit. The early soft claim helps, as does his statement about whether we're actual people or some of us are events/concepts. Scum would likely know this based on having two characters and I don't think he'd bother speculating.

Kohai narrowed his claim a lot with his softclaim, so that gives him some towncred as well.

Obviously, if you do not fall into any of those categories, just lump yourself into an amorphous category D for now.

Alright, it seems like we're going down two very different routes for softing our character claims and I think we need to pick one.

Thoth said his character mentions "stuff that happened quite a bit after the 2016 election cycle," so likely during the first Trump administration, and Kohai says he's a part of the Trump administration. I think I'd prefer the latter route, but let's keep it a little more general:

How about everyone softs the following:

A) You currently in the Trump administration

B) You were in the Trump administration (first or second term, don't have to specify)

C) You are not in the Trump administration, but are in Trump's orbit

Kohai seems to be suggesting that he falls into A. Thoth is either A or B (leaning towards the latter given that he mentioned events after 2016 and not current events). My character falls into C.

Maybe ask Pie to replace if you need time for those ultra rated debates. I can think of at least 20 people you could message to ask if they can replace

I'm going to try to manage both for the time being, but yeah, if it ends up being a problem, I'll find a replacement.

Despite my hesitance to join, I'm excited for this one. Just know that I'll be spending a good deal of this game trying to read through and vote on the two ultrarated debates... assuming I get enough sleep to be able to focus on them one of these days. Sleep would be nice, think I got 4 hours last night.

Anyway, I saw that there was some discussion of theme splits, worth keeping in mind that these could go a number of different ways (Democrats, RINOs, "old school" Republicans).

Also, please note this from the OP:

Mafia will be given the opportunity to ask 4 questions, which I will answer truthfully. All 4 can be about characters or roles, or any combination of the two as long as they add up to 4.

Considering that Pie usually gives scum the entire DP to ask these questions, the more claims we give by the end of the DP, the easier we make it for them to pick characters and roles that they can use as fake claims.

Damn, and Pie was going to Track me too. That would’ve been devastating. We had a strong inkling that he had an important role, so that was a big part of that early elimination.

Anyway, crazy game. Realized pretty late in that there weren’t any protective roles, so the BG was an opportunistic claim. Worked out, easy to sell that balance.

GG. Shining and I continue our somehow flawless record as scum!

I had some weak arguments against the Lawyer, but I wasn't about to bring it back up.

Well, I'll say I felt bad putting you in the position of having to make a decision, but kinda had no choice. Figured Thoth would be a very uphill battle and I could make the case pretty effectively to you.

GG.

Not to rush you, but we are a little over 10 hours out from the end of the DP. A NL is obviously not an option.

Also, my spelling could use work. Meant "sworn swearsy realsies," gotta be grammatically correct.

Dunno where my response to your summary of my points went in that post. It seems pretty accurate to me.

"SCUMBAG WHITEFLAME is trying to manipulate and discredit me, but what else do you expect from LIARS and MANIPULATORS. Expected better from Wryly. Why can't she see he is CLEARLY THE REDIRECTOR. Could she be secret scum? If she were town she would not be on a smear campaign against yours truly! Maybe in collusion with Scumbag Whiteflame. SAD!"

I laughed my ass off reading this. You channel Trump's energy so well.

whiteflame's arguments: He was copped innocent, Godfathers are mechanically impossible for the POE at this point, he is the only protective role in the game, the conditions for him being scum are very narrow while the conditions for Magoroth being scum are quite roomy, three investigators is unlikely, and he had no reason to NK Kohai.

Magoroth's arguments: He had no reason to NK Thoth, he had no idea what Sensor even was honestly, he is like totally not scum swearsy realsies, whiteflame has not even sworn swearsy realsies, whiteflame's read of Magoroth (behaviorally town, mechanically scum) had nuance and nuance is sus, the setup makes total sense because town were just given extra offense instead of any defense, whiteflame has to be a Redirector, Bleeder + Bodyguard doesn't make sense (reason unspecified), there is no such thing as "scum conditions being too narrow to be plausible" lol what rot, mechanics don't matter anyway only behavior, and I should just like ignore claims and vibe, just vibe, follow the vibes.

He's made some valid points. I knew I should have swearn swearsy realsies, my one weakness...

I think you were trying to gain towncred wherever you could because there's value in getting towncred. Building a case for why you are behaviorally town is valuable regardless of the DP, and like I said, your uncertainty read as behaviorally town to me. That doesn't require any magical knowledge or masterminding, that's just one way to get people to buy that you aren't scum.

I take your point that at least the Thoth NK could make sense for me, but I think the decision is at least equally plausible for you, too. I get that we have to get into these arguments at this point, but there's a reason it's called WIFOM.

To be clear on the Kohai point, it's a question of whether your doubt and uncertainty regarding Thoth were performative or real. From where I'm sitting, it's the former, and the apparent uncertainty (which neither I nor Wryly were onboard with) just comes off as an attempt to appear more townie. What is a known factor is that Kohai's NK did reduce POE based on your results, even if you did have trouble believing them.

Alright, given the responses here aren't really engaging with my points so much as just telling me what I should be doing, I'll just talk to Wryly directly from here on out.

I never said it is impossible for me to be scum. I said that, mechanically, there's less reason to buy me as scum than there is to buy Magoroth as scum. And no, I don't think I have to state the words "I'm not scum" or "believe me and we win" as a means to convince you. You know both of us have incentive to make that case regardless of our alignment.

Magoroth's view of the setup has shifted substantially from last DP to this one. Even if the Bleeder flip is real (and given that Shining flipped Tailor, I'm doubtful), if you believe I'm scum, that means there is precisely one self-protective role in the game, and it's just a delayed death. That's it. You also believe, based on Magoroth's view of what I could be, that I'm wielding a Redirector as the sole means of responding to both a town Cop and Sensor, since - and again, he knows this - I cannot be the GF based on his result. So by this point, he's just assuming that his role, which he worried could be manipulated by scum, could never have been manipulated and scum had no responses to him... but that they did have a response to you. I get that he's admitted to not being very good at setup speculation, but the setups he's put together here do not seem balanced at all. And I recognize that he's putting a lot more stock into behavioral reads than I am, but given all the flips we have to inform it, mechanics are and have been my priority when it comes to evaluating Magoroth especially.

Most of the rest of what Magoroth says gets into what could have been optimal play based on the NKs, both of which he largely just dismisses as irrelevant because he claims he would have done something different. I laid out the case for why he'd have reason to make these choices. I don't see a response explaining why I was at all likely to perform the NK on Kohai when that would reduce POE, just a restatement of his own uncertainties regarding the Sensor role. If he wants to argue that he'd have preferred Thoth's presence, raising the threshold for a VTL and possibly resulting in a VTNL to extend the game by another DP, I guess that's a choice. If the choice to NK Thoth was suboptimal for him, I'd love to hear him explain how NKing Kohai helped me at all.

I'll leave it here for now. The ball is in your court.

Also note, bears are 0-2 since this game has been running

Clearly our fault.

I'm just going to go through and address the major points.

First, I cannot possibly be the GF and Magoroth knows it. If he really is the Sensor, then someone between me, Kohai and Mag1c either must be scum or must have been Framed (as he mentioned last DP). He's discarded the latter option (fairly, since only Wryly could have done it and both of us have every reason to townread her) and focused on me. Kohai and Mag1c flipped town. If I'm the GF, Magoroth's result would have said there were 0 scum on the lynch. I'm in a similar position to Mag1c last DP where the circumstances required for me to be scum are rather specific: I could have manipulated Wryly's result (she copped me innocent) and I would also have failed to manipulate Magoroth's result. In a game where there is apparently both a Cop and a Sensor, the idea that scum only has a response to one (the Redirector he accuses me of being wouldn't do anything against a Sensor) is pretty ridiculous. By contrast, Magoroth has no results on him, and thus has the potential to be just about anything, including a GF.

Second, I made the case very clearly yesterday that my scumread on Magoroth was chiefly mechanical. I said that my behavioral read and only my behavioral read on Magoroth was town. Magoroth is new to the site, so I've been taking every behavioral read with a big grain of salt.

But let's talk about that mechanical read. Magoroth responds to one element of that mechanical read by arguing that Thoth could have been scum. He obviously wasn't. Given that Wryly hasn't voted yet when she could just get a mislynch and win the game now if she was scum, and given Thoth's flip, it's clear Magoroth was dead wrong with regards to his argument of there being a secret Framer. Somehow he turns that around on me and says it was TMI to point out that that highly specific scenario was unlikely? Or that mentioning the Redirector, something Mag1c spent a lot of time talking about last DP, is somehow a TMI slip? Really?

Magoroth also talks about is balance in this game if his role is Sensor and he's not doing himself any favors here. He points to the setup of "Sensor/Tracker/Cop vs Ninja+Redirector" and says it's "somewhat balanced" even though the odd role out there is... the Sensor. Ninja and Redirector do jack shit to a Sensor. He also doesn't address the big gaping hole in that setup, something he seemed to be acknowledging multiple times last DP when he kept saying that the setup does not make sense if I'm scum (267, 273, 314, 338). This effort to try and justify a clearly unbalanced setup flies in the face of his own logic.

Finally, he mentions the decision to kill Thoth. A couple of important elements here that he's glossing over.

He forgets that I'm the BG and that he had good reason to believe I'd protect Wryly. Magoroth was very blatant last DP about me being his focus probably because Thoth would have been a much more difficult target to get lynched if it came down to the two of them. That's not to mention that, since he would have some means to manipulate Wryly's role, he was probably counting on her copping him and using that as leverage going into the final DP.

Also, much as he's very focused on this lynch, he doesn't mention Kohai's NK NP2. As I pointed out last DP, that NK makes absolutely no sense for me, since it reduced POE based on Magoroth's results down to just me and Mag1c. He even called this out himself, saying how scum shooting within POE would automatically paint a target on them (449). The only person who stood to benefit from reducing POE was Magoroth because he ensured that the choices appeared obvious: just lynch these two and the game is over. Love the strategy, but if we're focused on WIFOM, Magoroth has plenty of reason to have performed both of these NKs.

Anyway, I'm heading off for the night, as sleep issues have persisted and I'm flagging fast. Magoroth probably won't post tonight anyway. Will be around tomorrow.

1/5?

Clearly, the NL is inevitable.

Well, third try was not the charm. I used my role on Wryly again (better to save a role that could actually be used than one that no longer functions this DP).

Alright, with three of us left, it's clear that the choice is between Magoroth and me, placing Wryly in the position to make this decision. We spent a lot of time discussing this last DP when he was my top scum read and, frankly, not much has changed. I was pretty shocked that Magoroth was calling for the lynch to be transferred to him by Thoth, but given the latter's extended absence from the DP and his desire to lynch Mag1c (Thoth said that he had tried to use his Governor to get the DP2 lynch shifted to Mag1c), I guess he was just that confident. Honestly, well played, had me questioning my read all the way up to Mag1c's flip.

I'm going to just place my vote, since there's no way I'm voting differently this DP. Wryly, any discussion you want to have, the floor is yours.

VTL Magoroth

Trying to read into this effort to get Thoth to move the lynch to someone else. That last response from Mag1c does seem genuine, so I think my townread on him was correct.

Not going to post anymore since the vote count is up, even if the DP is open, just wanted to get that last thought out there.

And yeah, I did not split that final vote.

Understood.

Unvote

VTL Mag1c

Yep, I'm good to shift if you say the word.

Okay. That makes sense, thanks. I forgot about Redirector/Framer. I’m not very good at setup spec/mechanical stuff.

It's honestly the only thing I feel like I have a handle on this game and I still feel like I'm missing things.

I would be remiss not to point out that you are the more experienced player.

Experience has led me wrong plenty often and I often have a hard time reading behavior. Wouldn't be a first for you to make a better call.

Whiteflame, how is anyone town confirmed if Mag1cman is scum?

because it either means you’re some kinda crazy Miller role that you don’t even know about or there’s a Framer/Redirector, in which case, mechanically speaking, it could actually be anyone in this game...

Assuming your Sensor is real, the only way Thoth or Wryly could be scum is if they Framed Mag1c or me NP1. A Redirector wouldn't have done anything, so that is the only case. It's not nothing, but it's a very specific mechanical play that must have happened just so in order to produce those results. If the scenario is narrow, I don't see it as terribly likely, hence I think both Wryly and Thoth are far less likely to be scum than any of the three of us. If your point is that no one is absolutely town confirmed, then yes, you are correct. But this is how I'm choosing to work through POE.

Meant to tag you on the above.