whiteflame

If you're that solid on your pick, Wryly, I'll sheep you and Thoth. As I said earlier, both of you are basically town confirmed, so your decision is the one I trust the most.

If the alternative is a NL, I'll switch to Mag1c, but this is where I've landed.

My default is to still go with my mechanical read, which places Magoroth in the hotseat. Lynching him first just makes more sense from where I'm sitting. Magoroth's behavior with Shining could much more plausibly be bussing than Mag1c's. I think Mag1c has more outs from being plausible scum at this point, mainly through the apparent disjoint between the Sensor results from NP1 (would have to be marked as the only scum on the lynch if he's scum) and the Cop result from NP2 (when he would have been investigated innocent). Generally speaking, the more convoluted and specific the scenario for someone to be scum, the less I buy it.

So while my behavioral read tilts a little more town with these frustrated posts from Magoroth, he lacks any mechanical reason to townread him, and that leads to my vote:

VTL Magoroth

All this flailing is so damn difficult to read. I've seen people do this as scum before, but my gutread is that it's town. Magoroth's frustration just feels so genuine and I have to wonder if he'd ever do this as scum.

Jonah Hill does an amazing impression of the little gremlins in my head right now.

if anyone hammers this, they will be lynched tomorrow.

You mean hammering Mag1c? What is your point here? Because there is almost exactly 1 hour left, so why would anything be an early lynch at this point?

to be honest the scummiest thing about Whiteflame is that he’s calling me town but still saying he wants to lynch me, like he’s not doing anything

When did I say you were town? I said you had elements of your behavior that made you look townie to me. I made an extensive post already explaining why I think you're mechanically more likely to be scum than Mag1c, and POE alone already has it down to you two and me. Giving you credit for townie behavior does not mean I've marked you as town.

that’s the thing, with a claimed Governor he would probably feel some what comfortable voting his own partner.

so a scum WOULD vote their own partner if there’s a Dayvig/Governor, kinda like Whiteflame did

I don't get this logic at all. Why would the Governor claim affect my vote when I had no idea if or how it would be used?

he also asked me “why are you unvoting Shining” at the end of the day yesterday

You took your vote off of him right near the end of the DP. It wasn't clear why you did it, and we were nearing the point where it would just default to a NL. What's odd about that? I haven't even called you out on that this DP, yet you say I wanted to shade you for it? Make that make sense.

white flame is trying to act like the nice Town leader going “we got this boys” and organising shit

one of my old time friends, very, very good Mafia player did this when he was scum, it makes town feel comfortable and makes him into town leader

white flame is obviously not town leader but he’s definitely manipulating people

So I'm trying to act like the "nice town leader" but I'm also not the town leader?

I'm glad you're engaging dude, but this analysis is all over the place.

Why would it occur to them?

Y'all are reading Shining's post about, "are y'all listening to this shit", as seeing through my dayvig. I think he bought it and was trying to cast doubt on it.

I agree, he was trying to cast doubt on it, but I don't think he would have been nearly this blatant about it if he believed it was real. He was basically putting a huge neon sign on himself daring you to shoot him.

We can lynch one and if we miss just lynch the other next DP. The question is just who's first.

You're right, it's just a question of priority. Right now, my preference is still Magoroth, but given that you and Thoth are effectively town-confirmed, I'm deferring to the decision you two make.

DP1: Magoroth spent time in posts 15 and 18 talking about the usefulness of claiming, and expresses a concern at the dangers of claiming in 26, and says he didn’t want to immediately claim in 37, meaning he was thinking about the dangers before 24. But in 24, he claimed his character. Here’s the thing: If you’re town and not fully sure of the benefits and risks of claiming, you’re not gonna do it. It goes against any town incentive.

We were told from the outset that justifications might not be great for certain character-role connections, and at least based on his character claim, I don't think it was obvious that he was the Sensor. Pie may have been more concerned that someone would read into his claim (though I also don't see his as obvious) and figure out his role, but that doesn't mean it was scummy for Magoroth to see it as less risky. That being said, I agree that the inconsistency in his perception of claiming his character was odd, since he expressed his concerns about the risks of claiming, but did it anyway.

Sensor + Cop + Tracker is OP in general.

I agree, it sets an odd balance, particularly in a game where neither scum could be the GF.

Magoroth spends a lot of time in DP2 doubting his own results. The goal is to downplay just how strong his role is, to make it seem less OP, and with hopes he can claim interference, which helps him be flexible. "What is my plan with all this?" is an attempt at town cred- In truth, mafia doesn't want a specific big-brained plan to mislynch people; they want a plan that makes them looks towny, and is flexible.

I don't really get the idea here. I can see your point that he could have been trying to downplay the strength of his role, but the inconsistencies on this front didn't look like a ploy. Would've been one thing if he'd come out the gate saying "yeah, my role could have been manipulated." The caveat, as I mentioned earlier, could be that he wasn't expecting to be asked about the accuracy of his role result and got confounded upon asking Vader how it would work. Either way, it comes off as genuinely being puzzled about how to take that information.

An alternative theory: Let’s imagine a world with three investigatives. Does that make Magoroth town? Not really. His quick character claim is still against any town or investigative incentive. But you know who refused that I haven’t mentioned? Rex. Like Pie, he didn’t want to claim. What if an investigative role is the flip he felt we’d recognize as the reason he didn’t want to claim? No matter the role, I’ve already concluded Rex just didn’t want to play, and that’s part of the reason he allowed his lynch. If he cared that little, why can’t that be the case if he was the Sensor all along?

This might be the case, but it's starting to get a little more into the weeds. Claiming the Sensor after seeing the Tracker flip would be pretty ballsy from his perspective, even if he knew there was a Sensor in the game.

Either way: Magoroth is Godfather, explaining the innocent result from Wryly. He doesn’t have to be godfather (everything you say I could be, so could he), but it seems most likely given the amount of time he’s spent talking about it; it’s the reason I started thinking there is one in the first place.

He didn't get a result from Wryly.

Always being opportunistic. DP1, joins the Pie wagon out of nowhere (380) and ends up voting Rex with us (469- hammer). DP2, joins Thoth in voting me (213). This DP, susses me, but then pivots to Whiteflame the second Thoth says something anti-Whiteflame.

It's not unusual for people to find my play off-putting, but the timing did seem off.

A bit more on that Pie wagon: He said he hoped it wasn’t hammer. But then why vote? This type of carelessness doesn’t come from town, who wants to check all avenues before voting. It comes from scum eager to get the mislynch through.

Yeah, that stood out to me too. He said it's not unusual for him to just go for it like this, though I don't have the experience with him to determine that.

TMI. He’s spent a lot of time asserting a godfather exists, some of it long before the thought ever crossed my mind (DP2: 189, 237, 393, 400, 501; DP3: 38, 44, 47, 51, 53, 67). NOTE: It’s not the fact that he mentioned the role, it’s that he’s made post after post after post about it. He’s treated it as a given ever since his sensor claim.

Believing that there is a GF in the game makes sense from the perspective of an investigative role like this. What makes less sense is why he's continued to talk about it since Shining's flip.

At this point, I don't have much to add to the discussion. Both Mag1c and Magoroth have behavioral support for their being town. I think there's more mechanical reason to sus Magoroth, and based on strategy at least, I can understand Kohai's NK better from his perspective than Mag1c's. That tips the balance against him. Wryly seems to see the behavioral balance tilting more against Mag1c, and I'm unclear what Thoth thinks between the two of them apart from mainly focusing on the Sensor claim and sussing me over Rex's likely Tailored flip. We'll need to figure out a lynch within the next 15 hours, so it's time to make some decisions.

Can confirm whiteflame always sounds like Tuvok

https://youtu.be/BQVDNX1e5ic?si=l3tI0kQgZ11rrHY2

VTL Whiteflame

I don’t like Whiteflame’s politiciany way of speaking. Neither Mag1c nor Thoth strike as me super scummy, it’s possible Mag1c is faking his whole anger shtick but it seems kinda a long time to be going faking this whole emotion crap.

I think it’s Whiteflame. He probably just isn’t the type to concede.

You're welcome to check out my previous games, but everyone here would tell you that this is just me, regardless of alignment. Call it "politiciany" if you want.

Magoroth - He claimed Cody Parkey DP1, immediately; I only really see him doing that as scum if he got Cody as a fake claim, which means scum were not given role claims, which means Sensor was a hell of a risk to claim (and so was Roleblocker, unless scum had a Roleblocker). He had no idea when he claimed Sensor in DP2 if there was another informative role in the game that could CC him, like a Dreamer or Informed Townie or something. The way he waffled on the accuracy of his information was baffling if he was scum. Shining pushes hard on Mago and in turn Mago starts to scumread Shining in the middle of DP2 and VTL's him unnecessarily at EOD when voting differently could have kept his partner alive.

I think these are valid points, even if some of them aren't quite as telling to me. We know scum received fake character claims, so character claiming early isn't really a factor for me. Claiming Sensor is pretty risky, but with your Cop and a Tracker on the table, I also find that it's pretty hard to believe it's in this game. I could see him looking at that Tracker flip and choosing to use something that wouldn't quite CC a Cop to gain some towncred. I 100% agree that waffling on the accuracy of his claim looked townie, and deciding to VTL his partner would be surprising, but it is consistent with a bus. Still, I think those last two points are in his favor, even if the first two don't net him much.

Excellent point. While all the flips so far appear to be pretty much in Vader's writing style, I did think earlier that, if I had to pick one flip as looking like someone else wrote it, it would be Rex's. As I explained in post #95, Vader said that scum would write a Tailor's entire fake role card, and whiteflame is probably the only person who would think to imitate the game host's writing style. As badly as I have been gutreading some of Mag1c's behavior, I'm almost ready to death-tunnel whiteflame over this.

Maybe there's some reason why Rex thought his flip be ex post facto self-explanatory. whiteflame, I'd like your take on that.

I'd like to understand your thinking on this. I've already said that I think Rex's flip is Tailored. Your conclusion from that is that I'm the only one who could have Tailored it. We know scum received fake character claims, so the only thing scum would have had to work out in writing a Tailored flip is the role and how it works. Coming up with Bleeder and the blurb after it isn't a stretch for anyone here.

It's been a while since you've chimed in, would like to get your thoughts on the cases that have been laid out.

Good to have you back. Damn those Wylted posts just make my day every day.

I take your points on Mag1c and Magoroth. I haven't locked in my vote yet since I'm still pretty torn. We should have some leeway if we mislynch since it's presumably 4-1, but given that we know scum have a role to manipulate your results, we probably have all the useful information we're going to get already.

It's a good question that remains unresolved. My conjecture is that I'm alive because they knew I was the Cop and wanted me to cop a Lawyer or Redirector or something. Why they didn't kill whiteflame, I don't know. His deductive power is something they shouldn't want in DP3, but they might have seen him as a possible mislynch target. If Mag1c is scum, he wanted Magoroth in to mislynch; if Magoroth is scum, he wanted Mag1c in to mislynch. Why Kohai over you? No clue.

As I mentioned earlier, the only reason I can think of is to make the decision a heads up between Mag1c and me. I think he'd have to be awfully confident that he could get both Magoroth and me lynched to do it. Maybe he was just that sure he could manage it, but the decision puzzles me.

If Mag1c is scum, he would have to have a Lawyer or Redirector or Deflector or Bus Driver or something like that, so if he also has a Roleblocker, wouldn't that make him a bit of a JOAT as well? Do mafia ever get two JOATs?

It does happen. So long as they have distinct role sets, scum having two JOATs can still be balanced.

Q: How much do my frequent typos trip yall up?

Sometimes more than others, but I was able to make sense of this one.

Given that Shining had a Rolecop, I am inclined to sus anything that implied non-public knowledge about anyone's role. Like Mag1c saying he thought Wryly was Cop.

I agree with Mag1c on this, I don't think there's much reason to believe Shining used the Rolecop over his other two roles. It's not impossible, but it seems pretty unlikely.

Just throwing it out there: If we somehow prove that scum used the Tailor, whiteflame is the scummiest scum who ever did scum. See post #95.

I don't get this point, but while I doubt we could prove that they used the Tailor, I'd say it's at least decently likely.

I think you are either the most experienced person here or the most experienced who isn't Mag1cman, so please tell me: Is Tailor showing scum the Tailoree's card common enough that you can reasonably assume it does so?

It’s been common to my experience with it at least, both from a town perspective and as scum having used it (I’d have to dig back to find it and I’m currently on my phone, but I’ll look into it when I get on my computer). Usually similar to a Janitor in that respect, only with the overwriting mechanic instead of the hidden flip.

Got some bad news today I'm still trying to process; will be on later when I can get my head back in the game

Whatever it is, it takes priority. Take the time that you need.

Alright, so I've gone through the links that have been presented and I've got a bunch of thoughts. I'll try to organize this, but it might be a little more stream of consciousness than I'd like.

At this point, I'm going to have to rule out Thoth and Wryly as possible scum. I was thinking through this wrong yesterday because it wouldn't matter if they Lawyered themselves NP1. Magoroth's result was that there was one scum on Rex's lynch, so we know Shining's teammate had to be on that lynch. The only way that isn't true is if they somehow Framed either Mag1c or me, which would make it look like there was one scum on the lynch. That's possible, but it's so specific that I just don't buy it. This is one of those instances where Occam's Razor does come into it for me: if the play has to have gone in one specific direction with scum having pulled off a crazy misdirect, then it's probably not what happened. If either of you actually did this, my hat is off to you, but we have to do some POE and you two are the least likely, both mechanically and behaviorally, to be scum at this point.

So that leaves just three: Mag1c, Magoroth and me.

I'll focus on mechanics first. Magoroth gave a result from his Sensor, which places the focus on the two remaining players who were on Rex's wagon: Mag1c and me. It was three last DP with Kohai still in the picture, but scum NK'd him, likely to drive focus to just the two of us. I can't see Mag1c doing that NK and then pursuing Magoroth this hard, since if he's scum, he'd know that that flip is going to put himself and me in a head's up situation next DP.

Beyond that, as Mag1c has pointed out, he can't be the GF. As a matter of fact, neither can I for the same reason. If Magoroth is telling the truth, then there is one scum between us and his results accurately portray that. The only difference between us in terms of investigations is Wryly's Cop, and at minimum, we do know that Mag1c getting an innocent result from her either came as a result of Mag1c actually being innocent or him having manipulated the result through other means (Lawyer or Redirector). We know if he used the former to get the innocent result NP2, then he didn't use it on himself NP1. We can also assume that the second scum has a role that counters either Magoroth's, Wryly's or both, so it's mainly just a question of which role and who has it.

So, at least mechanically, it's simpler to believe that Magoroth is than Mag1c. There are just fewer hoops we have to jump through. Magoroth would have had to gambit on the Sensor claim. Given the existence of a flipped Tracker and Wryly's Cop, the Sensor seems to add some big imbalances to the game, and they would apparently have to come without a scum GF, considering his result pegs Mag1c or I as scum.

Behavior is where I end up more confounded. I think Mag1c is right that scum have likely been bussing one another and we've certainly seen that play out over previous games. I don't think Shining would be shy about bussing, I just don't know if that was his plan this game. Dude gave up by the end of DP2 after providing a pretty weak set of reads. I could see him trying to take the lynch to protect his partner, especially if he had used the Tailored claim himself.

My behavioral read on Magoroth mainly comes down to how much uncertainties about his role have played a role in this game. I largely wrote him off as town because, frankly, if scum had fake claimed Sensor, they would know about its limitations. It would, however, not be a first for someone to fake claim a role and then adjust after asking questions that town had posed afterward. Still, his frustrated responses have come off as really townie to me, and I can't say that's changed this DP. I get that I haven't had experience watching him play before so this might be abnormal for him, but reading back through, it still looks townie.

Mag1c has always been a tricky read for me behaviorally. The TMI disclaimer on the Redirector looks pretty townie, but when so much of his case was predicated on him not being the GF, I think he had to expect a response about the roles he could be and just laid out everything to precede it. That's NAI to me. I can understand his point on the risks of using Wryly as part of a gambit as well, but given that he'd have to have some means of manipulating the result of her investigation if he's scum, that seems plausible, particularly going this late in the game at 4-1. If you're not taking risks at this point at scum, you won't make it to the end. Wryly's points on his behavior (delaying the lynch in particular) are things I've noted from his town play as well. The lack of direct bussing between him and Shining is a small point in his favor, even if I generally have trouble understanding what Shining's strategic goal was in DP2 at all.

The long and short of it is that I'd put the two of them on similar footing behaviorally, and give Mag1c the edge mechanically. Right now, my preferred lynch is Magoroth.

Thoth and Wryly cannot be godfather for the same reason I can't be godfather, see my case again.

I didn't argue that they could be. I said if anyone could manipulate those results by any means (Framer/Lawyer/GF), then it's possible, in this case only with the Lawyer.

But here's the thing: If I am a lawyer, I can't have used it on myself NP1, because of Magoroth's results. So there's another assumption you have to make.

It's not a big assumption, but fair, it is another assumption I'd have to make. To be clear, though, that assumption is that you didn't use it NP1 and did use it NP2. You could have multiple roles or have used it on your partner, since his being scum didn't show up in those results.

I don't think any scum case against me withstands Occam's Razor. REMEMBER: It's not just the fact that I need to have one of a small handful of specific roles, it's that I also need to be doing a crazy gambit with Wryly on top of that... when it's far better for scum me to kill her NP2.

I've been burned using Occam's Razor in these games before. When it comes to parsing crazier plays, it's usually a good idea to consider it. When it comes to dismissing certain roles, less so. That gambit is something I'm considering.

Are you guys listening to this shit?

-Shining, Post #298 DP2. Thoth is known for being weird. I think it's the type of thing only scum would see through.

Yeah, that post indicates that he saw through it, which means his partner would have as well.

Anyway, I'm calling it here. I'll address any more responses tomorrow.

Well, unfortunately, I'm running out of steam and nowhere near done going back through the game. I'll be able to do this a lot more easily at work with my dual screens than I can windowing this shit at home anyway, and that will give me more time to dig back into the Game Shows game and see if it's consistent with what Mag1c is saying. I agree with him that scum have likely been bussing one another, that is a factor that I'm considering.

I promise at least one big analysis post tomorrow and more consistent activity, expecting a slow day.

Alright, largely caught up. I'm going to dive back into DP2 before I call it a night, but taking a break for now.

Very interesting play here from Mag1c, considering he was the only one who did not VTL Shining last game aside from Thoth, who is mechanically innocent.

Mag1c is also the only player Shining did not FOS. The two players Mag1c is now accusing were ones Shining opposed, particularly so Magoroth. Take a look at #96, #224, #284, #288, #291. In contrast, Shining largely supported Mag1c's arguments.

Mag1c's behavior toward Shining was also imo consistent with a mafioso whose scummate is in jeopardy of being lynched. He ran interference and tried to keep the field of suspicion as wide as possible by saying "there are no unpairings anymore", stalled on voting by doing a lot of research on people, pretended to sus Shining for this and that only to dismiss his conjecture, said oh yes definitely Shining was a bit sus but he would prefer to lynch Magoroth, etc.

I was just about to take a look back through Mag1c's behavior last DP to scope out his interactions with Shining. Seems you've saved me some time finding some of the details for that, though I'll still go back and scope it out after this.

I'm going to dismiss this. It was easy to guess I was the Cop, so I'm alive for a reason, and that reason is I had some utility to scum. My cop of Mag1c is instrumental to the argument he is making for his innocence, so he would definitely want me in DP3.

But the material point is that Mag1c can only be guilty if he's a Godfather, and according to Magoroth, there could not be a Godfather in his POE.

It's a valid argument that he can't be the GF, but that's about it. The disclaimer is basically just an extended point explaining why we shouldn't see alternatives as plausible because he wouldn't talk at length about the possibility of other roles being in the mix and wouldn't have kept you alive, which just aren't convincing reasons to dismiss his potentially being scum. Would hardly be a first for scum to talk about their actual role as a hypothetical, nor to leave an investigative alive with intent to use their result.

So we have three possibilities.

Magoroth is scum, has sucked at flying under the scumdar all game, bussed Shining, and during DP2, Shining made a bid to get his own scummate dayvigged just as a ruse (high risk, low reward gambit).

Most of this I get, it's part of the reason I've been townreading Magoroth for so long. The one caveat is the bid for the Dayvig. I wouldn't be surprised if scum saw through that ruse early and therefore didn't see a risk in it.

whiteflame is scum, FOS'd his own scummate for most of DP2, and finally bussed him -- and quite unnecessarily, too. With Thoth AWOL, Magoroth waffling about whether to vote Shining or Mag1c, and Mag1c intent on voting Magoroth, whiteflame could have easily prevented a Shining lynch by voting differently.

Letting the DP end in a NL would've just automatically brought us to MYLO with the NK, so yeah, this would've been an odd choice as his partner.

Mag1c is scum, and mechanically, we're missing something that explains the data as they currently stand. There's a remote possibility he is a Godfather/Framer; he could also be a Redirector, as he himself allows; he could also have a setup I haven't even considered.

I can't see a world in which Mag1c is the GF and it's on all the time. I've seen some even/odd night variants of GF, but I'd put that as a distant possibility. Lawyer or Redirector make more sense.

You and Magoroth both VTL'd Shining when otherwise the DP could have resulted in a no-lynch without your votes.

I still almost copped Magoroth just to clear him. May have been a mistake not to.

To be fair, we'd probably be in a similar situation regardless, questioning if your night action had been manipulated in some way. Like I said, I get the choice, and that makes more sense now.

The scum between the two of you (Magoroth and Whiteflame) can concede to save us all time, btw.

Can't say I've dismissed you as possible scum at this point.

POINT ONE: Thoth and Wryly are town confirmed. Magoroth is either lying about his results, or he is telling the truth. If he is lying, he is scum, and Thoth and Wryly are not. If he is telling the truth, Shining was the one scum from (Thoth, Shining, Wryly); therefore, Thoth and Wryly cannot be scum.

Correct, though if a Framer/Lawyer/GF can manipulate the Sensor's results, then it's possible for scum to be among Thoth and Wryly. I have behavioral reasons that they're implausible as well, but there would have to be some mechanical hijinks going on to place both scum in the same pool of Sensor results.

POINT TWO: I, Mag1c, am (almost, but realistically) town confirmed, for I cannot be a godfather (nor can Thoth or Wryly). If Magoroth is lying, he is scum, and I am not. If he is telling the truth, then I must be innocent- he said godfathers hinder his results (post #525 DP2). Since Wryly copped me innocent, I can only be mafia if I am a godfather. But then, Magoroth's results would've said 0 scum between (Kohai, Mag1c, Whiteflame). His results say there is 1, so in this case, Whiteflame would have to be the scum on Magoroth's sensor- not me.

It's a given that only one of you are scum. It is also a given that, if Magoroth is lying, he is scum. So that first line is a given. The second line is more problematic. We'd have to assume you're the GF and that no other shenanigans are at play, including a Redirector, which Vader has employed before in games. It could also be a Lawyer, since you could've used it on Shining NP1 and yourself NP2. I'll concede that you can't be the GF in the scenario where he's telling the truth, but that doesn't mean you're innocent, it just eliminates a possible scum role. You admit as much, and you admitted to knowing Wryly was the Cop. I don't think it's likely that you'd post this much about how you'd done it, so at least you have some behavioral cred there.

POINT THREE: Either Whiteflame is scum, or Magoroth is scum.

Given 1 and 2, We are down to two remaining. Whiteflame does not have any innocent result. Magoroth, however, could be a godfather. Magoroth's results are not useful to clear him of being godfather like they were for me, because he could just be making them up. I am comfortable asserting he is one- a cop indicates the presence of a godfather, plus he was the first one this whole game to bring up a godfather- at times asserting it was me. Of course, if you trust Magoroth that much, Whiteflame is your lynch.

I don't think 2 is a given, but I'll set that aside. At this point, Magoroth is either telling the truth about his role, or he has at least some means of affecting alignment investigative results, given that Vader is almost certain to have included those mechanics in a game with a Cop at minimum. Doesn't mean it's the GF, but his role could be the GF, while yours could not.

I'm the Cop. NP1 copped Pie, he was innocent. NP2 copped Mag1c. Innocent. Wouldn't be surprised if there was a GF though, some people sure seemed certain we had another investigative

I get choosing both of them, but why Mag1c over me or Magoroth?

I figured if I was still alive today after that, it probably meant there was a Godfather because Godfathers want to be copped. In that way telegraphing my role a bit might actually keep me alive long enough to cop the non-Godfather. Alas.

The strategy makes sense. Getting the Tailor flip was still good, but it's just too bad he wasn't the GF.

I'm going to check out your big post as well, just spotted it.