whiteflame

Thoth and Wryly are town confirmed btw

Yeah, that's a given. Either they are scum with Magoroth or they aren't scum. Also, just can't see it happening behaviorally from their interactions with Shining last DP.

Remember my theory that there was a cop, hiding somewhere, that didn’t want to claim?

Called it, and I knew it was you.

Good thing she didn't end up claiming.

yes three investigatives is technically possible, but among Vader/SupaDudz's 8-10 player games, only two of them had three investigatves. Most had only two.

It's an odd balance to set with 3, particularly with a Sensor and a Cop in the mix.

I'm going to check out your big post separately, still going through the others.

Dunno about Bleeder.

Does it make sense with BG?

Not sure what would make the two problematic to have in a game together, though if any of the flips are suspect at this point because of the Tailor, it's the Bleeder. Oddly low number of protective roles this game, apparently, though maybe Rex's actual role was protective as well. If so, it's odd that Shining claimed RB.

I dunno why Kohai was killed last night though.

Yeah, I'm baffled by the choice. Figured scum would take out a target who was in the same pool of 3 (Wryly or Thoth) as Shining, since that wouldn't reduce POE.

Finally have the time to catch up.

Agreed on what the Tailor represents. I don’t think scum would have risked a CC on the flip, so I doubt that Pie’s flip was Tailored since the Tracker is a bigger swing. Much more likely it’s Rex’s.

I’m out and about, so my participation is going to be a bit limited until I get home, but I’ll claim now.

I’ve already given my character, I’m Cairo Santos’ blocked field goal. I’m the BG. Protected Wryly both nights since she’s been my top townread.

I'll be /in as a backup. Really need to get to voting on these ultrarated debates...

I'm going to stop posting here despite this not yet being closed. Really should pretend this is closed.

He told me Miller and Godfather would interfere my results but I am immune to manipulation.

Alright then, that makes more sense.

And there's the hammer.

I think I may be voting Shining regardless, but it is possible for both scum to be in fact in [Kohai, Whiteflame, Mag1cman].

You were told your results are 100% accurate. I don't get why this is a possibility for you at all.

Unvote

Wait... why?

Alright, well if he isn't defending himself:

VTL Shining

That also eliminates you from contention with Shining as your partner.

Shining/Thoth is not possible. Only 1 scum in Magoroth's non-wagon POE (me, Shining, Thoth) can be scum if Magoroth is telling the truth.

I already said I don't think it's at all plausible based on their behavior, but you're right: it mechanically cannot be both of them.

I can see some case on Magoroth, but too much of what he posted just screams town to me, particularly all the frustration in the responses to his uncertainty about how much he can trust the results of his role. If it's a gambit, it's a well-engineered one. The only real value I could see in his flip is either verifying or dismissing his result, and if it's the former, then we're going to be stuck in a difficult position with DP3 and scant little POE. By contrast, lynching Shining informs a lot more plausible scum pairings. A lot of little things bother me about his behavior as I've mentioned before, but the RB claim bothers me more and more. He didn't even state who he used it on NP1.

In case I bite it during the NP, I'd put Mag1c at the top of that list, though Kohai isn't far behind (the bus was all but inevitable at this point). I still think a Shining/Thoth pairing is not at all likely (the back and forth between them, with Shining initially backing him and then turning around against Thoth just doesn't make sense), but I'm reconsidering the possibility (albeit it's still lower likelihood) of Shining/Magoroth. Scum likely came into this DP bussing to get as much separation between them as possible, I can't write that off anymore.

We're about 45 minutes out, and I'm casting my vote at 30. If there's a good reason to change my mind, speak it now.

I'm doing some reading back through Magoroth's posts before I make a decision.

Fair enough, though I do think that there are some people who are pretty unlikely to pair with him (you, for example). I get that scum are probably bussing each other, but I don't see you going this hard on your own partner with the Shining lynch available.

I get the case you're making as regards Magoroth, though I'm going to have to defer to your experience with him on MU for any behavioral differences from his normal play. He's still in my POE, albeit not among my top choices. What are you thinking for a plausible scum pairing?

By the way scum you will have to shoot in the other group because if you narrow the PoE I’m going to do everything in my power to lynch the scum, you will not be able to mislynch me or convince people to do it. I will fight tooth and nail and you will not win that fight.

Not sure why you'd telegraph this. Yes, anyone would expect you to do hit this hard given your results.

It's unclear if he'll let any lynch go through at this point, but fair that he's least likely to let his own lynch go through.

So right now, I'm split on whether to VTL Shining or Thoth. My read really hasn't changed on the former, so I'll focus on the latter. Given the Thoth's insistence that he'll use his Governor unless somehow convinced to do otherwise, I have no reason to doubt that he has the role, it's just a matter of whether I buy his decisions (both the gambit and his stated willingness to use this role regardless) as town or scum, and honestly, I'm not sure. The flip would do a lot to affect POE, as both Wryly and I have pointed out that plausible scum pairings are pretty limited at this point. It concerns me that Thoth's decision may well deprive us of valuable information regardless of who gets lynched.

I'm still good with either one atm. I can see a valid case for either, and whoever we choose, their flip would be telling. I still haven't fully eliminated Kohai, Magoroth or Mag1c from POE, but I could eliminate at least one with either flip, and if we can verify or dismiss Magoroth's information as a result, all the better.

Who are you leaning toward for a VTL

I just hopped on, so I'm catching up. I'll get back to you when I have.

Since Governor can be a town or mafia role, it won't confirm anything, unfortunately.

I've only ever seen it as a town role. Made the same mistake with several other roles in previous games, but apparently I don't learn. Thanks for calling that out.

It's late and I'm not going to come to a decision tonight. I can see some value in having Thoth effectively town confirm himself, even if we lose out on a lynch in the process. The trouble is that that means we enter MYLO basically by default next DP.

So is the part about your role not lasting into MYLO/LYLO accurate or not?

Yes

Alright, so the only way we can confirm your role is during this DP or we have to be certain we'll score a lynch on scum. Otherwise, you're functionally Vanilla.

I was planning to use it and figured that I could come clean tomorrow since Governor isn't that far from Dayvig and the lynch change would have been self-evident. The VTNL plan did not occur to me, though it probably should have given that we were on odds. Again, I got too worked up thinking I had come up with such a brilliant plan and didn't see that obvious fault, among others.

Well, it was an interesting plan, I'll give it that much.

So is the part about your role not lasting into MYLO/LYLO accurate or not?

I'm just at a loss with where to take this. The Governor claim makes far more sense than the Dayvig and, at the very least, the "Occasionally" label on the role means Thoth did breadcrumb it, albeit vaguely. As for the gambit, while I get what Thoth was aiming for, he would have had to use his Governor on the lynch this DP to confirm his role, otherwise he would have just been auto-lynched next DP. If we had actually gone through with the VTNL, Thoth wouldn't even have had a lynch to use his Governor on, so he would have gone into next DP with no role validation and been auto-lynched. That's dangerous play regardless of affiliation.

It sounded like what you meant

"Seriously, wtf man?" is exasperation, not a proclamation that you didn't have reasoning for your actions.

Not for being baffled. For acting like I did something for no reason right after I gave a reason. Whether or not it's a good reason is beside the point.

Where did I say that you did this for no reason?

Call it bad reasoning if you want, and I wouldn't disagree, but now I'm back to scumreading you. I did at least explain my reasoning. I would not be the first person to lie as town.

So what exactly are you scumreading me for here? Being utterly baffled by your claim? You changed the nature of your claim at least twice by my count, should I have just taken it as gospel?