whiteflame

Mag1c wants Thoth to use his big guys

I like this better.

Alright, probably just better to admit I fucked up. I'm Governor, not a dayvig. I lied about being dayvig because I thought the prospect of ending the game today if I shot one mafioso and we lynched the other would scare scum into doing something telling.

Seriously, wtf man?

It’s the plan I just came up with

we verify his role (and 99% townlock him) if we force him to use it tonight.

we vote on who he uses it on, making that our lynch

then we VTNL because we just used Thoth’s in place our lynch

and if Thoth is lying and didn’t say big well know when we tell him to use it

He would be using it at the very end of the DP, apparently, so not tonight. I'm also still unclear whether he can trigger it with a VTNL.

And now I'm even more confused. I was just peppering Vader with questions about a hypothetical Dayvig, and he told me that if there was a Dayvig, using it would end the DP. Where exactly does the lynch fit into that?

The plan is to NL.

...except that's not what he said. He said it functions as a second lynch, not that it can be executed with a VTNL.

Really looking for some clarification on this, Thoth.

It doesn't have a special name, it's just called dayvig

So it's called Dayvig despite the fact that it can only be used at the end of the DP in concert with the lynch. Alright, weird.

As for using it, I'm wary. It would confirm you and reduce POE, but if we mislynch and you fire on a townie, it's game over during the NP because we'll be down to 4.

I'm Cassius Marsh's taunting call. My justification is that the penalty caused the Steelers to lose with ten seconds left. Hence I can't use my dayvig until end-of-day. In effect, I only choose a second lynch. If you think I'm lying because I left that out earlier, at least go for someone else sus today and lynch me tomorrow. I will confirm my role today.

So whatever role this is, it can't be used in place of the lynch? It has to be used with the lynch, meaning that it effectively functions as a second kill, one chosen by you? Do I have that right?

Who would be your preference for dayvig target

Assuming the Dayvig is real, Shining would be high on my list. I could see shooting Kohai because I have him as a potential scum partner for both Thoth and Shining, though I'll have to dig back into both their posts in more detail to make a decision. All this assumes Thoth has this role as town and confirms it. He hasn't been playing like it.

I'm not gonna believe it til I see it. I'm the Roleblocker. My justification has a lot of football shit I don't understand, but the gist I got is that someone eliminated the Bears from playoffs and kicked them from NFC North. idk

Huh. If you're fake claiming an RB, this is ballsy as hell. I'm not going to interrogate that justification just because Vader made it clear that the justifications may be weird.

I will post later tonight, but anyway, I am a 1x dayvig until MYLO / LYLO

So... I'm at a loss with this claim. Didn't you say earlier this DP that lynching you would be a bad idea? Also, can you provide some reason why you didn't claim before this? It may not make you auto-town, but this is a confirmable role and one we could have been discussing the use of for far longer.

I remember you used to be utterly baffled by how I play mafia. Like i get I am inherently scummy, but at this point you have to lnow my town play.

Keywords there are “used to.” Most of your play is usual for you, but I can’t help but note the distinctive choices.

Magoroth's claim is simply unbelievable for me. People (and I) have already went over Mago.

I can’t dismiss the possibility of his being scum entirely, hence he’s still on my possible list with Thoth. I just don’t buy that he’s the most likely suspect.

Do you really see a world where Kohai and Magoroth are scummates and Magoroth comes out with "there is one scum among Kohai, whiteflame, and Mag1cman."

Wasn't one of the teams I mentioned, but it's possible. Seems you've got this as a possible pairing. Wouldn't be quite as likely from where I'm sitting as the other two (mainly because of Magoroth's behavior so far - he comes off as pretty genuinely frustrated with how is uncertainty is being portrayed), but I could see it happening. From where you're sitting, though, the same reasoning applies to me and Magoroth.

okay... so apparently Miller would add +1 to the vote count if a Miller exists.

Hated does imply a kind of Miller.

I'm confused. A Miller investigates as scum, but is part of town. I don't get how that would affect vote counts or be implied by the Hated.

Can we get full character claims? From everyone in [Kohai, Mag1cman, Whiteflame]?

I did character claim.

WHITEFLAME

Whiteflame has been afk all game. I remember him being more active and while he never really drove town like Pie does, he does help town when he can. Maybe hes busy from the holidays, but its frustrating because its making me scum read him, especially when Thoth and Magoroth are sussing him.

Considering how few posts, let alone substantive posts, you've put out, this activity read is pretty odd. The long story short is, yes, holidays. And I've responded to the susses that have been levied at me.

Scum is probably WF/Thoth or maybe Thoth/Magoroth.

Don't get the first pairing at all, especially considering how he started off this DP death tunneling me.

I know I've been slow to post today, mainly because I've been trying to make sense of plausible scum pairings. As I said, my two scumreads are Shining and Thoth (his giving his reasoning eventually didn't move the needle much, he's only a little closer to null now) and I don't think they're a likely scum pair. I just don't buy that Shining would hop on the wagon with Thoth and then turn on him like that if they were a team. So, if either of them are scum, who would they pair with? Going to leave myself out of this analysis for obvious reasons.

Shining -

Can't really see a world in which he pushes back on Magoroth's results this hard and considers him one of his lead scum pairings (can't imagine scum would actively push back on their own partner's gambit if this was a gambit), so at least for the purposes of considering who Shining would be paired with, I'm taking Magoroth's results as gospel. That rules out anyone who wasn't on the lynch, which includes Thoth and Wryly. Already largely ruled out the former and I had a townread on the latter, so that's simple enough.

That places the pool of plausible partners on Kohai and Mag1c and while I have slight townreads on both, I'd have to place Mag1c as the more plausible one. Neither of them have had much to say to or about Shining, but Mag1c has said he looks townier for unclear reasons. I also just buy the early Hated claim more than I buy the later Vanilla claim. It's not a lot to go on, but that's my lean.

Thoth -

The wagon that stacked up on Thoth earlier and the frustration aimed at him made it pretty clear that at least a few people are unlikely to be his partner. Already said that includes Shining, but I'd also throw Mag1c in there (he started the wagon - can't imagine he'd do that) and Wryly (kept expressing frustration over his lack of willingness to clarify his sus on me). Maybe some of this was staged, but I don't buy it.

That leaves just 2: Magoroth and Kohai. I can't rule either of them out. Kohai mentioned the red check that he thought Thoth had against me, which gives some indication that he didn't know what Thoth's thinking was. It's not a lot to stage something like that, and if Magoroth is town, then it would fit his result for Kohai to be scum since he was on the lynch while Thoth was off of it. I remain a little uncertain of Magoroth, especially given how his results split the game down the middle, but it makes sense that both scum wouldn't have been on that DP1 lynch, and I don't think Magoroth would have so much difficulty establishing that his results were accurate if the Sensor was a fake claim. So currently leaning toward Thoth/Kohai.

Those are my picks for scum pairs. At this point, I'd prefer to lynch either Shining or Thoth, since that would either result in a scum lynch or at least cut down POE substantially.

I am seriously calling it a night here, though. Pick this up when I've gotten at least 6 hours.

I had a change of heart after mulling over what Mag1cman said about how unexplained reads could devolve the game into "orange sus". (Orange is totally sus.) It's because whiteflame formatted his claim in two paragraphs, like this:

[words] [colon]

I am [claim]

It stuck out to me when he did this in Alien because it seemed like that formatting, leading into a new paragraph, was like he was trying to... I dunno how to put it. Distance himself from the claim? Like he was saying it in two parts to see if we would buy the lie?

Hey, that's... something. Never been sussed for the formatting of character claim as scum. I think I just straight up claimed my character in the Alien game too, so I'm not sure why I'd even want to put distance between myself and my character in that game. I appreciate that you're being clear about where you're coming from now, but I can't say I understand the basis.

Alright, here are my reads so far:

Kohai - The Hated claim last DP already had him leaning town, and nothing this DP has meaningfully shifted that needle. He's spent a good deal of this DP giving people towncred, even going so far as to dismiss Mag1c as an option early on due to Pie being NK'd, not behavior I'd expect to see if he's trying to keep his options open or hone in on someone to sus as scum. Maybe he's willing to do that as scum and maybe he's just trying to give his partner cover, but if it's the latter he's handing them out more broadly than I'd expect. Didn't like the VTL on me following Thoth's VTL, but it ended in his next post just to keep me from L-1.

Shining - More difficult to read Shining. VTL'd with Thoth and backtracked only after a while of Thoth refusing to explain himself, then turned on Thoth using Mag1c's reasoning and believed that I could be Thoth's partner. It's just weird series. Other than that, he's been pretty confounded by Magoroth and townreads both Kohai and Mag1c, which tracks with his read change on Thoth at least. Null is probably more accurate, but it's hard not to take his weird reads on me as something more, so slight scum.

Wryly - I always seem to jive with Wryly's logic and, honestly, I fear the day she's scum (and doesn't say taboo words). Pointing out the inconsistencies in Thoth claiming a behavioral tell on me while also claiming to know my likely partner. All her interactions with Magoroth on his role come off as genuine poking and prodding over how it works and how he's interpreting the mod's responses. Like to see more thoughts on more players this DP, but I'd put her in slight town.

Magoroth - It's mainly tough to read him because I only know that he has significant experience with Mafia, but not any idea of what he's prone to doing with it as scum. So what I'm trying to do is figure out if he has a plan with all this and where it would be headed. I could see him pulling out a Sensor to give a result like this - as he put it, that means there's one scum member in each group of three (those on the lynch and those off the lynch last DP), which makes POE rather difficult given that we're one mislynch away from MYLO. Wouldn't be the first time someone pulled a tactic like that (thinking Luna a few games back with a ballsy Dreamer claim). That being said, aside from the tactic being useful to scum and it being a risky claim he might take, I can't really see him doing any of this. Questioning the reliability of his result and actually made me townread him a bit, just a weird tactic if you're trying to use your results to engineer a mislynch. I get the behavioral cues that set Mag1c off, but they're harder to lock down alignment with. Can't say I'm in either camp with him as of yet. Null.

Thoth - Ever since the start of this DP, I've been trying to get a bead on what Thoth has been up to with this death tunnel and I still can't understand it. I don't know what Thoth plans to do with this information if all he's going to do is state that I write in a specific way and that it's more common in my scum play. It's exceptionally weird because he posts that he has a feeling about this, spends 7 minutes apparently perusing the archive for evidence, comes back proof positive, and has since just been repeating that there is something and not saying what it is. He even seems to have a good idea of who he thinks my partner is from the same information, and then got weirdly defensive the moment Mag1c put a vote on him, saying that lynching him was a bad idea. It's just weird how much he's banking on information that he's not giving us, which seems like an easy way to get attention on him if he's scum, but also pretty anti-town. Spent a lot of the early DP townreading this, but it's slipped to a slight scumread as the DP's gone on.

Mag1cman - Lot of little things have me pushing Mag1c into slight town. His initial post this DP was pushing back on logic Kohai was using to townread him, keeps focusing on Magoroth as his major concern behaviorally despite a lot of uncertainty from the rest of us on him, the pushback on Thoth felt like genuine frustration and has continued to feel the same, and the Miller confusion in particular are just not things I would expect from him as scum. They're minor behavioral tells, but they keep stacking up. Slight town.

Not sure who I'm sussing more atm between Shining and Thoth, don't really think they're a scum team, though. I'm flagging fast (up late due to New Years Eve and my wife was up even later with nerve pain, so I was too), but I'm going to work out plausible scum pairs when I can look back over things tomorrow.

I'm going to work up some detailed reads. Might not be up until late, but I'm aiming to get them up tonight.

Alright, seems like some of the rest of what I missed was Mag1c going down a rabbit hole thinking Kohai was the Miller (we know he's Hated) and discussing the possibility of other investigative role that could partially CC Magoroth. I can say straight up: I'm not investigative, and it doesn't look like anyone else is raising their hand at this point.

Interesting... I have been townreading Kohai, who sadly hasn't been more active, and while Mharman has been more active, I only have a lean town on him. I honestly wouldn't put it past WF to be buddies with Thoth.

Don't get this take on me and Thoth at all. This would be the single weirdest bus I've ever seen.

You know, VTL Thoth. I agree with your point on Thoth. I remember him being an experienced player, so its odd he won't explain his read. Hes just pissing away time if town for no reason. I get its the holiday, but bro, explain yourself.

Don't love that you were willing to follow him so readily in the first place without any explanation.

I had assumed he had a red check on whiteflame. Thoth can you claim if you actually have a red check

Haven't seen a "red check" referenced before. You mean an investigative result?

There is one scum in [Whiteflame, Kohai, Mag1cman], btw.

Immediately thought Dreamer.

I have the one-shot ability to tell how many scum were on a lynch.

Yesterday there was exactly one.

Alright, so it's Sensor.

I asked the host if my results are guaranteed to be accurate, if it’s possible for there to be zero or two scum when I get “one scum” as a result, and his reply was “Your results are guaranteed to be 100% accurate”. I dunno what that means. Lol

If you want to ask whether specific roles could change your results, you could, but you don't normally see a mod say "100% accurate" if your results could be messed with. Either that, there's some bastard modding at work, or something else is going on. Regardless, if you are the Sensor and this is your result, it seems you should be able to trust it.

One more thing before I type out those reads:

I’m not taking my vote off Thoth until he explains his read on Whiteflame. This is policy based on our agreement to lynch disruptive players from a few months back.

It’s disruptive because mafia is supposed to be a game of deductive reasoning, debates, mind game battles. If it devolves into “red sus guys trust me” then it’s not mafia anymore. And we all know this and are about to waste time pressuring him for his thought process.

So I’m just gonna cut to the chase and give him the ultimatum here: Thoth, I don’t care if you’re town or mafia. If you don’t explain your read, you will get lynched.

It's been a while since you've posted this and, from what I've seen, Thoth hasn't explained his reasoning. I think this is a very odd move from Thoth if he's scum, but I have to agree that it's extremely detrimental to town. I don't even care that it's on me, it's just hiding information that could help inform a lynch. That plus threatening that lynching him is a "bad idea" both rub me the wrong way. I won't VTL him without seeing some kind of response to this, though.

Alright, I've been absent for too long, need to catch up too.

I'm warning you ahead of time that lynching me is a bad idea.

Considering you have one vote on you, it seems strange to say this, especially when Mag1c's just looking for the reason you're sussing me.

Except when you plan on keeping your secret sauce around for future games.

Except that makes it difficult for anyone else to believe what you're selling.

It's something specific about how whiteflame wrote a post earlier. I picked up on it because it stuck in my mind when he did it in Alien. I checked some games on here and on DebateArt and found a definite trend of him doing this more often when he is scum than when he is town.

Alright, still vague. I get that you don't want to let me know so that you can use this against me in future games, but again, if no one else is on the same page as you, this isn't going to be valuable to anyone but you.

I might just have strong reason to scumread whiteflame. I'm going to archive-binge for a bit and test a hypothesis. If this comes back positive, I am death-tunneling him.

First off, happy new year! Turned here about 25 minutes ago and I just got home.

Second, you say you’ve found something, but you’ve been cagey about what that is. Clarify and if there’s a valid basis, I’ll full claim. Don’t like that two people hopped on this wagon solely because you’ve insinuated you have something, but if there’s a reason for me to claim, I won’t refuse.

That being said, it’s late and I’m tired, so I won’t be checking back in much later.

I’m going to be out with friends for much of the evening (in case I don’t pop back on beforehand, Happy New Year everyone!), so I’ll just character claim before I head off:

I’m the blocked field goal kick by Cairo Santos in a game against the Packers in 2024. Lost by one point despite a major comeback drive.

I can join the discussion after work. I have a party I'm attending tonight for New Years Eve, so my time will be somewhat limited today.