Alright, so off to a bad start this DP losing our Tracker. The Bleeder isn't as big of a deal, but it's baffling that REF was so averse to claiming a role like that that he would rather have been lynched. There's standing on principle and then there's just imploding.
While it's not a lot to go on, Pie has at least been more receptive to votes on him this DP by setting a number at which he'd do the softclaim. I didn't like that he set that bar, but he held to it. REF is just generally less willing to play ball. I do expect a full claim from Pie next DP, but if the choice is between two blind lynches with this little to go off of, the more obstinate player is going to get it. Couple that with REF's relative lack of posts (I can at least be sure Pie will interact plenty next DP) and I'm not sure we'll be in a different place with him during the next DP.
VTL REF
There’s a core difference. I responded to an L-1 inquiry for my soft. I followed the golden rule. REF was at L-1 and still refused to claim. So now I’m going to be put at L-1 again. I’m not going to claim if REF doesn’t claim. Period. It’s a double standard. If you want to lynch me, lynch me blind.
I get that, though REF was more up-front about stating his own soft. You were at least responsive to pressure, I'll give you that, it just got you to the same point he was already at. Regardless, though, you both are currently standing on principle and not claiming under pressure. I do get your frustration a little better than his since you at least did follow through, especially since that subsequent soft REF gave about the TD didn't narrow the window much at all.
Well... now they're both doing it. I can see both of them being obstinate regardless of alignment, but this is just absurd. Giving this some more thought.
Unvote
With Pie and Rex looking so much like town vs mafia, Magoroth can take a back seat for this DP imo
That's fair. I'll revisit my read on Magoroth next DP.
As I see it, the choice is coming down to pushing REF or Pie. I can see the case Mag1c is making against Magoroth, but I can't say I'm fully with him on it yet. With such limited time remaining, pushing an alternative may just yield a NL by default, and I think that would be the biggest mistake. Given how the two have been diametrically opposed much of this DP, a flip from one should at least provide useful information. I'd prefer having a known entity to lynching blind, but here we are. If Pie doesn't hop on and claim, then the choice is just between someone who isn't here and someone who is but is refusing to claim. In that case, I'm going to go with the latter:
VTL REF
Because I’m impulsive. And I do like the idea of a sudden flash wagon on someone out of nowhere. It frustrates people which brings out their real feelings into the open.
Yeah, I can see the value in it, just strange when you're including the possibility of being the hammer in the same post with the vote. Don't know your play, so the impulsiveness might just be your MO.
VTL Pie
I hope I did not just hammer.
I don't think you did, but why would you risk this if you thought it was possible?
There's just not a lot to go with from REF this DP, which is part of the problem. So many of his posts amount to either throwing up his hands in frustration, giving partial insights into his character that don't reveal much, and getting frustrated with Pie, all things I'd say are NAI. I agree with what others have said that there's no way REF and Pie are a team this game. I also don't see Kohai being REF's partner given the posts about his Hated role, which come off as figuring out how to read it in the moment rather than something staged.
I hate just lynching blind, even if the target is just being intransigent. I'm going to read back through REF's posts and see if there's more to this before I make a call. I won't leave this to the final hour.
I just hopped on. I'm catching up through the last few pages and then I'll make a call.
We've got just over 12 hours left by my count, so we can wait long enough to see how REF responds. Given that that will likely set us up to make a decision right at the end of the DP, I think the push for the full claim makes sense, just hoping he responds sooner rather than later.
There's another soft I would like us to do, and this thought crossed my mind because I've never seen my role before. I think this one is good enough that it could be meta for future games.
According to the MafiaUniverse role database, is your role frequency Common, Occasionally, Rarely, or not in the list, at least not under that name?
My role is Occasionally. Again, I've never seen it before, but I haven't been around as long as some of you have, and roles may be more or less common in different sites' metas. I think this should make role fake-claiming much harder for scum while not giving them a dangerous amount of information.
I get the idea here, but that's bound to give scum too much information, and it doesn't limit scum enough by requiring them to provide a broad category like this.
It means nothing lol. Character claims are basically useless this game because the justifications don’t mean anything. It doesn’t do much anyways. Bears always lost because of opposing teams scoring TDs against them. It’s nothing new
So to be clear, you're saying you don't think this narrows the claim window much for him? It's unclear just how much information character claiming might give us at this point (maybe his character is just well-connected to his justification, as Vader hinted in the OP), but if you're seeking a full claim at this point, then that doesn't matter much.
Alright, I count 4 people. I’m an Event that happened during a game.
Seems like that took more pressure than it warranted, but fine, at least we're getting somewhere.
I don’t want to claim, but the golden rule of mafia is that whenever you’re L-1, you full claim. Votes are the way town gets people to do things here
Particularly interested in your thoughts on REF's more specific soft.
The reads look decent, though they're notably incomplete. I get the focus on REF, Kohai and Wryly, but I'm not seeing much analysis of anyone else, particularly with Pie's soft now on the table.
...Alright I don't know much a out football so someone else can discuss that.
Still trying to research it as well.
This is why I hate hated as a role. It should be used as a modifier to a good role so you have a reason to keep the person alive. As it stands now, it's optimal play for us to lynch Kohai, but because it's optimal play his lynch will reveal very little as far as behavior and wagons go.
Yeah, I get this, though it's not like Hated players have never survived until late game. It always leaves questions, but it can lead to strong behavioral townreads.
I am a specific touchdown. Not going more specific than that. It could be either one or two because it's an event but also something a person did, so it involves some degree of human agency/skill.
Still doing some research into this, but appreciate the specifics rather than just holding out. May come back to this if I'm still flummoxed later.
I like the new pfp, love me some Edna Mode.
Re: Rex -- he's like, always like that. He barely posted DP1 of last game and was town. He said "I'll lynch whoever" last game and was town. His inactivity and listlessness are NAI.
Yeah, that's why I was hesitant to put a solid read on that behavior, even if it usually comes off as scummy. I can see that REF kind of claimed, so I'll take a look at that in a bit.
I'm #1
Alright, I believe that covers everyone. Thoth did say he's one of two, which could mean he's just one of them or a cross-over, as others have suggested. You mention later that Pie's unwillingness to soft rubbed you the wrong way, and while I agree that that's true, he's also pretty notorious for doing this regardless of alignment. He's also softed by now (took more than it should have, but here we are), so it's NAI to me.
Sixpence on Pie still pushing him as the default lynch for having a low utility role
That would fit his MO.
Posting a Wylted quote every day phase in memory of he whom I replace.
Classic.
The whole point of softing is to increase credibility by nailing down at least a little detail of your role, something scum would be reluctant to do because they don't want to limit their fake claim choices at all too early. Even if they were given fake claims, they want more time to think of which roles should go with those characters and would be safe to claim, etc.
True, though softing doesn't really give us any insight into anyone's roles. The main purpose with this kind of softing is to limit character claiming leeway.
whiteflame: Softed, plenty of logical analysis as always; null.
Fair.
Bro keep pushing me and I'mma turn into a twisted conglomerate called Wrylted. Wrylted is very goofy but very antisemitic, not something you want to see, no, not at all
Oh god I forgot you're Jewish FML
We do have a small but solid contingent in this game.
Perhaps VTNL may be a good option?
I don't see this as a realistic option. Much as rushed lynches have been a problem, particularly last game, town imploding due to an early VTNL is far too common and we've still got enough time that this shouldn't be on the table.
The biggest scum tell for pie is twisting people's words and trying to make it sound like they're saying something they're not.
Usually doesn't happen until later in the game, hence he's often difficult to read early on.
I know I am impossible to read.
Speaking of turbos this is the best turbo I ever played. If you want to see what I look like as scum here it is https://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums/threads/58532-creativename19-desp8-game
Granted this is a 1 sample size
Good to see at least one game where you were scum, though behaviorally, you're bound to be a little different in a turbo game than you would be here. I think you're more likely town than not, but discrepancies between this game and that one aren't really going to move the needle.
That being said, I should try this out sometime. Feels similar to the live games we've done on Discord.
I'll Unvote as well, given Wryly just subbed in. Thanks for joining!
It's normal, I hate DP1 and aside from generating activity and lynching a random person I see it as pointless. I do this literally every game but people still scumread me for it.
The general dismissiveness of reads at this point sets you apart, though I'll admit it's relatively normal for you, hence it hasn't led to me posting a vote on you and why I'm not yet seeking your claim. I disagree with Kohai that your pushback on claiming is a townie response, but it's what I'd expect as well.
Also reading the debates you guys have around here. Interesting but I don’t see myself joining into those because I’m bad at it although they make for interesting reading
I'm glad you're enjoying the site so far! Still glad to have you in Mafia and even if you don't end up debating, it would be great to get your thoughts on some of those debates. Feedback is always appreciated.
Hmm. There have been 2-3 people scumreading Rex. This makes me wonder if we’re all mistaken ‘cause... idk, it’s a stupid reason. But it makes me feel a bit paranoid about being wrong w.r.t his alignment xD
I'm hesitant to pile on myself since this is hardly the first time I've scumread him for reasons that proved insubstantial. I'd like to see more posts from him and then make a call.
Does anyone have an opinion on Whiteflame? Is Whiteflame known here for deepwolfing?
Issue I have is that, while his posts are good, IMO they’re the type of safe logical posts that can come from either alignment. It shows he has a stake in the game but that doesn’t help me slot him one way or the other.
Not the first to call this out (first time seeing the term "deepwolfing," but from what I've read, it tracks with previous games where I've been scum). So far I've been focused more on bigger logic posts given my general lack of time/sleep, but I'll be around to directly engage with more regular this DP.
Pie - Decision/Event/Something Else - ??
Whiteflame - Decision - ??
Wylted - ?? - ??
Magorath - Cody Parkey - ??
Shining - Event - ??
Thoth - Decision/Event - ??
Magic - Event(self-inflicted) - ??
Kohai - Matt Eberflus - Hated
Rex - Event/maybe Decision - ??
Kohai - First post was the SOP claim, acknowledged that that places him on the chopping block if there isn't a better option on the table. Spent some time jumping around between VTLs, the initial sus on Mag comes off as genuine confusion. Leans town.
Pie - Gave the expected response to Kohai's SOP, believes Mag's character claim based on his own knowledge and seems to like the snooker player troll (fair), pretty cagey about giving his softclaim since he just said it's one of the three. Looks like Pie's play alright. Null.
Magoroth - Actively participating more than most other players this game (myself included, great to see it), he clearly has some fun with his style of posting. The Cody Parkey claim just being given without pressure is still odd, even if his giving a snooker player earlier might have forced him to out eventually. So far, seems to have a pretty good grasp of the game and is asking good questions. I take Mag1c's point that, since scum could have character claims, he might do this just to get towncred, but for now he's a slight town lean.
Shining - Gave an initial read on Kohai's claim, softed, and gave thoughts on softing as a way to gin up activity. Not much. Null.
REF - Softed a little loosely, though that might just be a factor of his character. Open about lacking reads to the point that he says he could lynch anyone. Odd approach. Slight scum.
Thoth - Suggested the soft and gave one vaguely for himself, told on himself about using TPs, then largely just discusses mafia strategy on different sites. I'm always tempted to townread people who suggest ideas for softing, but that's bias, not a read. Null.
Mag1cman - Giving some pretty specific reads so far. I agree with his perspective on Kohai, a little less clear on Thoth though I think the points have merit. The read on me is a little loose, but I'd be surprised if it was more solid at this point. Slight town lean.
Wylted - Absent. Null.
Before I go back and get into reads, I noticed the whole softing post from Thoth and I think it's valid, if a little loose atm. Seems at least a couple of people have been claiming between two or even all three options on the list. If the goal is to restrict character claims at all (may or may not be helpful in this case given that we know scum could have fake character claims), I think we're going to need at least some specific responses that go beyond what certain players have given. If not, then we're not gaining much from giving them.
That being said, here's the ones that I've seen. Given that only five players have given any indication of where they fall (I've added my own), there's only so much we can garner from this, but it's something:
I am a decision made by a team, either the Bears or their opponent - WF
I am an event that happened to the Bears, not directly due to anyone's decision - REF (maybe #1?), Shining
I am someone or something else, like a specific player or coach
Special cases:
Alright, now I'm going to do a deeper dive into what people have posted so far, have something up shortly.
It's been a surprisingly busy Sunday. I promise I will catch up on the DP and post reads before it gets too late, apologies for the delay.
An unfortunate lack of sleep last night isn't helping, but I'll give some thoughts on what has been laid out so far.
Kohai's claiming Hated comes off a little townie to me. The role draws attention and, especially with Pie in this game, it's likely to be the auto-lynch in the absence of anyone better. Kohai hasn't been scum before so maybe he'd take this kind of risk, but I doubt it. From what I've gleaned of Matt Eberflus, bad calls and fan hatred are a thing.
As for Magoroth, it's great to have you with us this game! The split is almost certainly 7-2, though there could always be a third party involved. The response to the Hated role seems genuine and the character claim Ronnie O’Sullivan Cody Parkey makes sense with the theme, albeit it's a little surprising he just came out with it. Could all be NAI, but I think it's more likely he's town.
Haven't seen Wylted post yet. VTL Wylted
Just checking in for now, I’ll post more when I get a chance. The Bears aren’t exactly an area of expertise for me, but I’ll do some research into them this game.
I assume so.
If you don't have an alternative by the time this starts (the OP says after Christmas) just add me to the roster.
