The problem is scum knew who their target was and not who necessarily got the role.
Yes, and they knew it was a numbers game. I recognize they took a big risk claiming that Vader received it, but they already had good reason to believe you hadn't (you would have announced it in one of those first few posts), so they only had to bank on a 1 in 3 chance. Wouldn't be the first time I've seen someone play the odds to get townread with a ballsy claim.
I'm calling it a night here. Rex is obviously the lynch this DP, so it's just a matter of how much we want to discuss this DP before moving onto the next. Will pick this discussion back up in the morning.
So you’re arguing that scum got lucky by killing Mharman who had the role copied (which they wouldn’t have known btw) and they just yoloed the Rolecop first thing without anyone saying anything?
Basically, yes. Vader could've just YOLOed if the alternative was to crash and burn next DP. Kohai had already posted, so he could be reasonably sure he didn't receive it, and with Mharman dead, it meant he had a 1 in 3 chance of claiming he used it without a CC. It's risky, but it would give him significant towncred going into the final 3 next DP and he needed something to give him a leg up.
Point is scum must have known lynching castin is higher priority than lynching pie unless pie is scum.
This is the part I’m trying to understand because we can go back and forth on the possibility of posting a change of vote in those four minutes, but I don’t get this.
Yes, the existence of a TP would have been a threat to scum. Coming into this DP, can you tell me who here aside from yourself was at all likely to look at Pie’s flip and townread Wryly? The confirmed 1X BP would have drawn a lot of sus instantly, so why would scum rush her elimination when they could get both Pie and Wryly in back-to-back DPs with ease?
Rex was online and voted #412. If you think Vader is scum then Why didn’ Rex vote Pie here? Even if he wasn’t around to change his vote there’s still a strong probability of a mislynch
My point is that, if either of them was going to have the opportunity to do it, it would have been Rex. He still only had that four minute window, but sure, if he'd been paying close attention, he could have gotten in there. It's still four minutes and entirely plausible that neither of them could have been aware of the opportunity before the door closed.
If Vader is scum why didn’t he switch to pie
Same response: 4 minutes. REF was at least on kind of close to the end of the DP, so it's more believable he'd squeeze in a hammer vote. Vader was absent for several hours after placing his vote.
Also Rex could have also have switched to pie and he didn’t. So that doesn’t necessarily prove you town.
True, though there wasn't a long window between the my vote and the vote before it (yours). I cast my vote four minutes after you. Is it possible he could've taken advantage of that short period? Sure, but he'd have to be sitting in front of his computer refreshing pretty regularly to do it.
if you somehow knew she was a 3p survivor hammering her makes the most sense as you would need to waste a NK on her
...except that Pie's flip would have instantly implicated her this DP. I get that you in particular were concerned over the existence of two 1X BPs, but that was not the common sentiment.
A random town person got an action last night. Since you’re not CC’ing unless pie CC’s then it’s obvious Vader is confirmed scum.
I'm not claiming I got the Role Cop, so no, I'm not CCing. Still waiting on Pie, though I suspect he didn't get it, either. I think Mharman got it and when scum killed him, Vader went for the claim.
Are you CC’ing Vader?
...Where did I say I was CCing him? I'm saying scum could be aware that they took out the Role Cop when they killed Mharman last night and just decided to claim Role Cop to look townie in the aftermath.
I also don't have any redirects left. Realistically if we assume WF is the last scum he can't kill Pie, so he's either going to have to kill me or Kohai, which I think will likely be me. I was thinking about saving the redirect for next NP even when I got the ability, but we can at least get some form of an idea who scum is at this point
So, wait, did you use the second redirect or lie about having it?
It was obvious at the end of the last DP that Rex was scum based on the info that Wryly provided, so I guess the TP gave him up. That also makes Kohai locktown since Wryly also said that one of the characters on that list was real, which at this point can only be him. Rex has pretty clearly given up defending himself, so he's going to be the given as a lynch this DP.
As for the second scum, it comes down to Vader for me at this point. Claiming he used the Role Cop on Rex is pushing the bus pretty hard, but makes a lot of sense when it was already obvious that Rex was scum. He clearly came into this DP knowing that much, as did his partner. Scum killed Mharman, so they could just have eliminated the Role Cop target and Vader just claimed it to push my lynch next DP.
Regarding the read on me, I'll point out that I could have won this game for scum just by choosing to lynch Pie instead of Wryly last DP. You guys put that up to me entirely to make the decision, and scum apparently shared the fake character claim list with Wryly so they would have known Wryly was lying about her character claim at minimum. All I would have to have done is hammer Pie and then Wryly would have been the auto-lynch when Pie's flip was confirmed this DP. It would be a baffling choice to give up my chance at an easy win.
I'm still a ways off from getting this one in shape (changed over from Frieren and now I'm having to redesign a lot), but I should have time to get it there. In case you don't know it, the theme of this game is the show Barry. The lead is a depressed hitman who becomes captivated by acting and starts leading a double life. Great dramedy with a litany of fantastic actors, highly recommend it.
To answer some of the usual questions: the standard rules will apply, there will be a theme split, I'm going to aim for 9 people but will adjust accordingly if I fall short/go over that number, there will be no required viewing for this but theme knowledge is of course helpful.
This means next dp I'm death tunneling ref as this locks him as scum
Yeah, I saw that character list too.
Lol, wow. From most townie player to TP flip in the span of one DP.
I really don't like either lynch, but I can't see Pie pulling this kind of gambit with the CC. It just doesn't make any kind of sense for him. There are at least more unknowns for Wryly. Neither of your actions make sense as scum, but Wryly's more likely to have made these choices, albeit without a lot of thought into the consequences of just putting out a fake claim that could be CC'd.
VTL Wryly
I'm putting down my thoughts now, guess it's my call.
I get your perspective on this, but I don't think we have much choice this DP. If there are somehow two BPs in this game, that's something we can revisit with knowledge of one of their flips in hand, which is more than we have right now. This will either come to a head this DP or next, and I'd rather know that we have another DP to work this out in case we mislynch.
nah, I may have been too hasty to concede
Alright then. I'll stick around, taking any lingering thoughts into account.
I really did fuck it up spectacularly though
It happens. Hope you feel better, sounds like you're going through it.
Exactly. If pie is scum I have to believe that he's YOLOing to get castin mislynched when he has other mislynch targets.
If castin is scum then I have to believe they played a nearly perfect game and blundered the fake claim. I will then have to believe that either they were recruited or they are OG scum and Kyosuke isn't actually in the game. If castin was originally town then I don't see them claiming anything other than their original role.
This leads me to conclude there's a strong non-zero chance they are both town
Fair points. I'll make a decision by midnight EST.
I'm not sure I like magic's sudden pivot to wryly
Yeah... strange timing and just fully conceding the point. Still, doesn't do much to shake my townread.
My counter to this though is that I asked to claim DP4 (to bait the NK) and to be rolecopped for the reason that I was going to claim BP with a Doctor already flipped.
I can see how that fits with your claim. That being said, delaying your role claim in particular has become a common thread to most games I've played with you. Specifically calling for the Role Cop to be used on you is a stronger point in your corner.
Herein lies the problem: I can create a very strong town case for both pie and wryly
Yeah, so can I. Diving back through all their posts in the last 3 DPs actually made me read Pie a little more townie behaviorally. And I think the key problem here is that both of them would have to have made a seriously crazy decision: scum Pie would have to outright CC someone with a role he knows he doesn't have, while scum Wryly would have to have masterminded a bunch of very townie play and just choosing to give up her role when there was no pressure on her knowing it could be CC'd. They're both choices I wouldn't expect either of them to make, so either someone was careless (one of them or Thoth), or they're both town. I can't say I've ever seen a game with this much protection and a repeat role, though, so we'll have to make some decision here.
A lot of your posts tagging me boil down the case against Casey to "we don't know her scum behavior," which, fair point, we don't. I find it hard to believe she'd town-tell this hard as scum, but it's possible. I am re-evaluating her based on the CC.
We do know that scum at least have insight into fake claims, whether that means they were given them or given information sufficient to craft them.
It is still a little weird that I pointed to Vader being an X-shot while no one else had claimed one and you responded affirmatively. I get that one's a passive role and one's active, but that wasn't the focus of that post. Maybe your response was more focused on it being specifically a 2X active role, but that didn't come across.
It wasn't much of a delay on the CC, so I'll leave that aside. You did seem to flag it pretty quickly. And I agree, the CC doesn't make much sense from where I'm sitting if you're scum. That's the main thing that's puzzling me about you.
Kyuubey is a man right.
Saw this first, just a quick response: Kyuubey technically has no gender. I'll often say "he" because that's how I perceive them, but they're a genderless alien creature.
Alright, a lot got posted while I was in the middle of that. Let me read through these posts and I'll give the side-by-side comparison.
In DP1, expressed some frustration with the theme, developed a pretty reasonable early read list and focused mainly on activity before largely just being good with the VTNL.
By DP2, he was focused more on choices made vis-a-vis the contract offer before largely focusing his attention on Kohai. I still get the read looking back through all this, largely due to a lack of clarity and a great deal of TMI. His POE made sense at the time as well. Accepted the VTNL, but there was a lot of weirdness at the end of last DP, particularly on the Kohai lynch. He's largely maintained his sus of Kohai since, so seemed like he expected Kohai's lynch DP3.
As for DP3, he pushed for Rex's claim then focused on Vader's claim. He did claim Mami pretty early this DP. The shift in focus onto Vader did make some sense given that Vader didn't use his night action. I initially agreed, though it is an odd choice to say that he should have targeted me just to test my role. I'd love the validation, but it basically just ensures he's sacrificing one of his shots for a role confirmation. It's not nothing and a Redirector could cause problems, but I found it more frustrating that he didn't use it on anyone despite having some reads of his own. Still, much as I disagreed with Pie's POE this DP coming down to me and Vader as OG scum, I understood how he reached that conclusion, even though he was writing off other players too easily (particularly Rex). That all leads to the decision to push back hard on role claiming. I kind of get it with the Doctor already flipped, but the pushback did seem excessive, effectively calling for enough people to declare their willingness to lynch him for it to be a certainty unless he claimed.
There are a few elements here that rub me the wrong way, but behaviorally, this looks pretty townie for Pie. Regarding the unwillingness to claim, he's done this a lot in other games and almost always seems to be the last person whose claim gets pressured out, which is true whether he's scum or town. Some of the ways he approached pursuing Kohai and Vader over the last two DPs are a little off as well, even if I get his reads.
I'm working on it as fast as I can.
Alright, so here's my takeaways from each of the DPs skimming back through the posts Wryly and Pie made:
Spent some of DP1 discussing game mechanics, particularly the hidden role and the possibility of pursuing the softclaim of magic/non-magic. Clear she was struggling with reads, but it's DP1. Largely gave into the VTNL.
Started off DP2 claiming she was unrecruitable by virtue of being a boy, did some back-and-forth with Kohai over a lot of those early uncertainties about the contract, hidden claims and what Kohai had actually done. Spent some time focused on getting a claim from Rex at the end of the DP before reluctantly accepting the VTNL.
Began DP3 with the character claim. I'd say this is a ballsy move as scum, though we know they have fake claims available. Good response to the Madoka witch reveal and to Rex's claim (particularly with the follow-up questions), called out that she had an X-shot in response to my sussing Vader over his role on that basis, gave a set of pretty detailed reads and pushed back on Pie's argument town leaning Rex on the basis of the custom role. We eventually get to the 1X BP claim, and then we get into sheer bafflement. Honestly, this all comes off as pretty genuine. Only way I can see Wryly being scum here is if she was literally given 1X BP as a fake claim by Thoth and chose it thinking it would be safe.
If Wryly's OG scum, she's been town-telling exceptionally well almost all game long. If she's the recruit, then she's risking an awful lot by not claiming her actual role. If there's a strategy here that isn't just bastard modding that fucked her over, then I'm not seeing it.
Going to do a more generalized ISO on the two of them and then make a call. Not a lot of time left to decide this. Appreciate you chiming in any time @Rex
He did when he claimed his character:
My character is Sayaka. My character has a really good sense of movement and flow because they appreciate classical music and are also energetic and open to change.
Yeah... this is why I need to go back through previous DPs when I'm doing a quick search. So unless there's more, her justification isn't focused on her signing the contract, either.
