whiteflame

Nope. Neither of them

Understood. Want to get Vader's response on this as well, digging back for his justification.

No one asked her to claim. Kohai just asked if she had claimed.

Ah, thanks for the correction. That makes the decision all the odder. Why put herself out there with a claim?

From a thematic point I pie's flavor sticks out because they literally survived only because they made a contract with Kyubey and wished to live. This is major scum points for pie IMO.

I thought about this, and this is where I need to poll everyone who has claimed a magical girl: do any of your justifications hinge on the acceptance of the contract? In my case, it just laid out the circumstances of Homura before she became a magical girl and how her personality affected her interactions.

I'm working to catch up. Reading back through the much of the DP didn't change my reads, so I'm mulling over what could be happening with this BP CC.

The long and short of it is that I'd have reason to write off both sides as doing something entirely unnecessary to draw heat. For Pie, that's obvious with the CC. If he's lying, he's pretty much guaranteeing his own lynch next DP should Wryly flip town. For Wryly, I didn't even see much pressure to claim, meaning that she decided to claim a role with plenty of towncred on the table already because... Pie asked I guess? If she's scum and she made this choice, then she put herself in a position to potentially be CC'd without any reason to do so.

Anyway, I'm going to go through the last few pages and address some of the more recent posts about this because I'm not landing on an decision yet.

Fuck it, we don’t have time. I am CCing Wryly. I am the 1x Bulletproof. My justification is that I was the only one to survive a car crash and fated to be an orphan

So, yeah, this is a direct CC. Both of your justifications make sense to me on first read. Mami does get orphaned early and that’s pretty much the impetus for her accepting Kyuubey’s contract. Wryly mentioned Kyosuke as Hated (which would’ve made sense), but a wish does save Kyosuke’s life. Difference is that the latter happens as a consequence of Sayaka becoming a magical girl, whereas the former is something that happened before Mami went in with Kyuubey. Both read as real, so if one of you is lying, you did your homework.

The CC from Pie would be extremely ballsy and dangerous, since her flip would out him. I’ve been hard townreading Wryly behaviorally for a while now, so I’m going to need to dig back and hear from her before making a decision, but this doesn’t look good.

Why do you want to lynch Rex?

I still don’t want to lynch him this DP, largely because if his role is real, I want to give us as much info as possible if he flips. That being said, I don’t buy his claim. The combination of it being this highly tailored role (which comes off as something scum would design given all the info on the table), his being the only adult character and his receiving a contract anyway makes him stand out. Behaviorally, he’s come off as outraged town, so I’m balancing my read on his claim against that.

Wouldn’t it be better for the role cop to target wf and verify ascetic claim? 

Testing my role isn’t worth it. If we do get it, using the Role Cop this way is just wasteful.

Didn’t realize my vote on Rex was still up. I’ll wait to lock in until this set of commitments is established.

Unvote

I asked Thoth about this. He told me that while he thinks he did mention custom roles to you in a discussion a few months ago, it was before he ever thought of the Madoka theme. He did not confirm to me that custom roles are in this game in particular. So your reason for eliminating Rex from POE doesn't hold up.

Not unusual for Pie to establish a read based on something like this. I agree, he shouldn't be treating the custom role as a given, especially based on this bit of info from Thoth.

So it sounds like your FOS on Vader really comes down to this Redirector and whether it's too much complication for Thoth. I feel like that's pretty open to argument. Balance and modding are where I'm weakest so I will grant that I don't have the best perspective on this, but Thoth has already put in a recruitment mechanic, hidden abilities, and a risen witch mechanic. Look how many roles he's willing to juggle. Is a Redirector + Doctor + Ascetic really too much sweat for him.

It's more modpsych than anything, and while I get where he's coming from, I don't think it's a strong basis for sussing Vader. Thoth likes his complications.

Well that makes sense but turn the question around. What if a Redirector redirects the Doctor to an Ascetic. That’s a more ambiguous question especially if the Redirector visits 2 targets. Why would a mod want to deal with? 

The redirect fails and the doctor protects tbe original target. Not that much of a headache.

That's basically what I got from asking Thoth about it. If the redirect fails, the role it's trying to redirect goes through as normal.

Gun to your head right now, who are your top 2 lynches? Kohai and Vader for me

Kohai's a definite one. I'm still reading back through the previous two DPs to decide between Rex and Vader for the second, but, gun to my head... Vader.

Apologies for the low activity today, got quite a bit more going on than usual. Regarding this DP, I'm between the Kohai and Vader lynches and be good with either one, though I'd lean towards the former. Just a lot of behavioral problems with Kohai so far, and the lack of clarity on many of his reads rubs me the wrong way, particularly with the unclear walking back of certain elements. Vader's always been more of a town gutread based on previous experience, and particularly his highly negative responses to me when I mentioned I didn't understand Kohai's townread on him, but his reads this DP have been very wishy-washy and I don't get why he's questioning the existence of a recruit. I'm pretty sure we can assume that based on the mass contracting and Thoth's clarifications of what it would do.

I'd consider Rex and Pie more next DP, with the latter influenced chiefly by whether/what he claims next DP (and whether that ends up being supported by a Role Cop), and the former mainly being because his behavior up until now. That combined with a novel claim that seems like it could have been faked with a couple of targets that have already been verified (also, I would have expected him to come in with a lot of the answers to the questions Wryly listed rather than having to be asked them) makes me scumread him a little, even if I think he's pretty behaviorally town with all that frustration.

Pie inviting a rolecop is a point in his favor, I suppose, since it was stated that hidden abilities such as those granted to the recruit by Kyubey would show up in investigative results.

Inviting the Role Cop does lend him some credence.

And assuming Pie is not himself the target who could inherit the ability, in which case he could hardly rolecop himself.

Yep, that would also be a problem. Another one I didn't include is that, since we won't know if scum lynch their target, they could always claim to use it.

The role PM simply implied the existence of a recruitment contract that players could either accept or decline. I figured that it would be unbalanced for more than one player to accept. The main utility that my role has is catching someone out in a lie. I did not want anyone to be wise to that, otherwise they would not feel comfortable lying, their guard would be up. So, I goaded Kohai in other ways once he wasn't being forthcoming, and I wanted to get one more shot fired off on someone else who claimed not to have accepted before I claimed and made myself a target. When I prodded Thoth on Kyubey once people who know the theme better than me had explained it, he was a bit cagey, only saying that there were certain players that it would fail on. I imagine he didn't want to reveal too much theme info DP1, he mostly limited his answers to mechanical ones about how my role would get various results. Once you claimed I figured you might be one of them and I'm guessing that Kyubey might be another.

I get why it would be valuable to catch someone in a lie on whether they accepted the contract, even if it seems unlikely that the scum recruit would lie about accepting when they were hiding in a crowd of other players who also said they accepted the contract. Apart from my role, that's a surprising amount of fail states, especially if Kyuubey shows up the same as Kyosuke (Wryly's character). You effectively break down to three results without insight into what a failure is. That's significantly weaker than I was expecting.

So you won't get a distinct message if, for example, you get RB'd?

I'm looking over your major post on OG scum and seeing several points that you've retracted since, so I'm not sure how much of this still holds up from your perspective, but I can't understand the reasoning behind keeping Mag2c in your POE. I can understand Vader and Pie, but you went from POE is between those two to POE includes Mag2c. Also, could you be clear about what you're changing from this post? Because aside from saying it's fine that Pie hold off on claiming until DP4, I'm struggling to determine what was misread or misstated.

I don’t have anything to mod confirm myself, but I would like to wait till DP4 to claim and would ideally like to be rolecopped as I think it would solve the game DP4

Assuming town gets it, whoever gets it selects the Role Cop, they decide to use it on you, and scum don't interfere with it or kill them.

So why is contract cop such a viable claim then? It literally could've only been used 1 DP and he didn't even claim it? That claim is less viable than a Redirector. It is also a fitting fake claim.

He did claim it and claimed that he used it twice. Not sure what you mean by viability of the claim, but yes, it could be a fake claim.

I have my suspicions on Kohai from DP2 but I also agree with your Pie assessment. For now what we know is Magic2 got redirected onto Magic1 and Magic2 / Mikal saw one other person visit. So we have confirmation of that at the minimum (in a NP with no NK I may add). Pie literally does not have any verifiability with his claims and has nothing to him

Part of the reason I'm interested in getting Pie's claim is to see if he has anything to verify him mechanically, but he seems to want to hold off until next DP to claim for some reason. Not sure why he's so reliant on getting Role Copped first.

I honestly buy the fact that he was converted. But we also need to find the OG scum as that’s the key to strategy. I’m perfectly okay with lynching Kohai for behavioral reasons alone. The shift in behavior is notable and all he’s been doing is being defensive, plain buddying, or dodging

I agree, I think locking down OG scum is the better choice, though Kohai has stood out as most likely for the recruit.

Top candidate for OG scum is Vader/WF

Top candidate for recruit is Kohai

Obviously disagree that I'm that likely to be the OG scum here, but I get being sussed here since I have no confirmation yet.

DP4. Ideally, I would like to be rolecopped

Seems like something you could use as confirmation next DP after stating your role this DP, but at least from your perspective, I get it.

I also buy the claim because Thoth explicitly told me before this game even started that he’s definitely going to include a custom role because no one besides Luna ever does. REF can’t be the OG scum here.

So you think this cop variant is that custom role?

Redirector is generally a scum role to begin with. Would you claim it as your true role? Idk, it’s WIFOM, but I dislike your behavior and POE has you and WF down as OG scum

I think he'd claim Redirector if he actually had it whether he's town or scum. I get the behavioral issues better, even if I think they're more townie coming from Vader.

Kyubey targeted me asking me to enter in a contract. I had a feeling this was an alignment changing role. I was intreagued so I initally accepted the offer but then retracted it after reading up on it (though it wouldn't have mattered anyway as the contract ended up failing). It was mod confirmed to me that this was an alignment changing role. We are dealing with a cult or a recruiter.

Much as I have problems with much of Kohai's posts, this isn't one of the ones that sticks out to me, even for the listed reasons. When I read the contents of the parenthesis - "though it wouldn't have mattered anyway as the contract ended up failing" - my take-away was that Thoth still told him the contract failed (which implied that he couldn't retract it). I agree he was dodgy about clarifying that and it took a while to nail him down on that front, but considering what he's said since, this does follow from the original post even if it wasn't explicitly stated there.

Whiteflame always feels scummy to me, so that's a given. I feel like he's being a bit deliberately obtuse on Kohai. Almost in a 'it's hard to make a man understand a thing when his wincon depends on him not understanding it' kind of way.

This is just ridiculous. I've called out Kohai behaviorally several times and said I believe that it's entirely plausible he's the recruit. I've been more focused on finding OG scum, but I was willing to lynch Kohai last DP in the absence of a strong OG scumread. Just because I'm not jumping onboard for each and every reason others have for supporting the Kohai lynch doesn't mean I'm pushing back on it.

Since you know I was honest about accepting the contract this proves that I’m not original scum and that I have been fully honest and transparent

I was pretty sure you were not OG scum already. You being the recruit is still entirely possible.

serious question for you: If the contract went through and my alignment actually changed why would I admit it on the very first post of day 2? This makes zero sense from a scum player. If I was scum here never in a million years would I have made that post

WIFOM. There are several players who have claimed to accept the contract. Are all of them lock town because they did?

I agree with pie that there’s confirmed scum in Vader and whiteflame. Whiteflame is basically conf ascetic and so town redirect or makes no sense

Read the precious day phase where I asked the mod a few questions about ascetics. He basically confirmed an ascetic was in the game.

Much as I'd love to agree with this, a mod spelling out how a role mechanic plays with another role we know is in the game doesn't confirm the existence of the first role.

Why would that matter? You can accept or reject the contract whether or not your character is revealed.

Yes, but that meant that Mag1c was not Kyuubey. I think the use of your role against a target you thought was Kyuubey would have made more sense since they were the ones you could 100% catch in a lie.

I'm not sure what happens if I target Kyuubey.

Seems like something you should've asked about already.

I’m thinking Rex’s claim is more likely than not, completely fake.

It's opportunistic, to be sure. His targets both seem very convenient.

As for the recruitment; I spitballed this DP1, but I’m thinking scum is Walpergisnacht/recruited magical girl.

In the series, Kyubey orchestrates the conflict between magical girls and witches for his own goals, kinda like how Thoth is running this game. So Thoth = Kyubey for extra flavor.

And the recruitment is mod-run, I think. Could be random, but it’s possible scum has some input for balance (like choosing from the candidates who accepted the contract), but I don’t think scum pressed a big red “recruit people” button.

I like the theory, though with this mid-DP Madoka witch flip, I'm starting to think that witches are a mod-run mechanic in this game. Not sure if/how Walpurgis fits into this game, but we know Kyuubey is involved.

Oh right. I tagged you because i was gonna float the idea of you and I both using our roles to test Whiteflame.

I actually don’t like it. Confirming Whiteflame’s role does nothing to prove his affiliation.

Yes, you would only be testing my role claim, and I don't think more than one of you is required to do that anyway. If you can learn anything that's affiliation indicative with your roles, that should be the priority.

If Rex is telling the truth, it seems like he's now a leading scum target, and our doctor is dead. If he's lying, contract cop seems like a great fake claim, allowing you to guide suspicion away from the real recruit. Either way, I'm not happy.

Yeah, I'd say that's a fair take on his claim. For the former, he was pressured pretty hard into claiming, so I don't think he could have escaped becoming a target if he's town. We don't know if scum got a fake role claim, so this might not have been a risky fake claim if he's scum.

I have an x-shot. He wouldn't be the only one.

Ah, that does change things. Thanks for chiming in.

Claiming Sayaka 2x Redirector DP2 seems like a risky claim for scum. Even if scum were given Sayaka as a fake claim, claiming Redirector seems ballsy since it could potentially be disproven. Unless he was fake claiming Sayaka but straight claiming Redirector. But that wouldn't address your skepticism with Redirector even being in the game.

It's less about whether he's faking the claim (the visits would be difficult to replicate) and more about whether he's scum and the Redirector.

I’d prefer to claim tomorrow.

By "tomorrow," do you mean DP4 or what is now today?

I've already stayed up later going over this than I'd like. I'll chime back into this discussion in the morning, likely after torah study (yes, I do go to those every now and then).

Mami Tomoe

Any particular reason you're holding back from role claiming at this point? The character makes sense - last of the 5 magical girls in this series - but you're the only one in that bunch who hasn't role claimed.

Right now I’d probably say my top scumread is Vader. The Redirector doesn’t make much sense here from a town perspective. It just seems like negative utility that should be waived every night.

The redirector role does stand out. No one else has an X-Shot role and it's an odd pairing with Sayaka.

I absolutely hate the fact that Supa didn’t use his ability last night. He could’ve redirected who he thought was scum onto someone he also thought could be scum. He could’ve verified WF’s role as well. Doesn’t make sense to waive here. The Contract Cop and Inspector make sense together. Doctor is flipped. Wryly is behaviorally very town.

I get at least part of this as well. Not sure how he plans to use it later if at all, but if he saw it as negative utility or wasn't sure how it would pan out, he should have tested it on me.

I think there is a confirmed OG scum in Vader/Whiteflame. The headache a mod would have to deal with if Vader redirected Doctor or Inspector to Ascetic just doesn’t make sense from a game design perspective especially if Thoth is counting a Redirector as having two visits

I agree that it doesn't make much sense for both of our roles to be present, a lot of potential for role stoppage in there. Thoth would have to be balancing quite a bit of utility to make that work.

I’m Kyoko

Her father kills his family and himself, except for her. She’s made an orphan and forced to develop street smarts, making her more observant of the world around her. Hence inspector.

That tracks pretty well. We learned a good bit about Kyoko's past and it's pretty brutal. She does seem to have some pretty strong insight into other people as well.

Was going to respond to Ref's post directly, but I'll address it in part in response to Mag1c's response tagging me.

@Rex

I'm Junko Kaname, I'm the mom of Madoka and Tatsuya.

So the only claimed adult so far.

I'm the contract cop. I can target a player and learn whether they accepted a witch contract.

It's fitting for this game at least. Assuming there isn't another investigative role beyond Casey/Mikal/Mag2c's, then I can buy there being something else in play. Hard to say why Thoth would design a role to check something that the scum recruit could have just told the truth about, though I guess Kyuubey at least would necessarily have to lie.

@Mag1c

Both results are public knowledge at the time of this claim.

Yeah, and I imagine virtually everyone told the truth about their response to the contract, with the obvious exception of Kyuubey. Giving results that just say what they said only tells us who they aren't. Can't say I understand the choice to target you given your character was revealed already.

@Whiteflame, was Junko offered a contract, or may have been offered one in the past, in the show/movie? I don’t see anything about it in the wiki. At least for Hitomi, there was a writer’s comment on what her wish would’ve been. I can understand some lore stretching for the game mechanics, but I want to know how far of a stretch this would be.

Nope. Both Junko and Hitomi are outliers in this respect, since they canonically have not received any contract over the course of the series. Like you said, the writer has discussed Hitomi directly as a possible candidate. For Junko, it's more of a strong theory, as Junko has seemed to know on some level what her daughter Madoka was going through during the series. There are some pretty strong theories suggesting that she may have been approached when she was Madoka's age, but that's about it.

Ah, that's an interesting way to incorporate witches into the game.

So we won't know who scum's lynch target is and, since it's randomized, we only know it's a town player. It's a cool mechanic and it would be great if we got a Role Cop. If we lynch scum, someone in town will automatically get it.

While we wait, how do yall feel about Supa?

I think the confirmation from Mikal about the second visit gives him mechanical support for his claim and I think his frustration towards me last DP came off as townie. The redirect could be real and he could still be scum anyway, so it’s mainly about the behavioral read, and I still lean town on that even if it’s not that strong.

Could you repeat the justification for your character being ascetic?

It focused on her isolation as a result being bedridden for half a year before returning to a world where she felt like an outsider.