whiteflame

Alright, ending this for better or worse.

VTL: Lunatic

If I'm wrong, GG Kohai, you got me.

As for the explanation, yep, I wrote a lot. Had to get this all on the page before I felt at all comfortable with it.

So there are three major considerations I have going into this decision:

1. Claims
2. Behavior relating to Thoth and attempts to mislynch
3. The value of the Thoth bus

Claims are the easiest out of these, so I’ll get that out of the way first. They favor Kohai, it’s pretty straight up. Part of that is having a confirmed role - we know he’s Popular - and part of that is the very early claim, but as I’ve already covered, it’s also about the structure of the game. Note that’s structure, not balance. I’m not going to claim I know which roles must exist. I do, however, see the symmetries between the roles from Thoth and the Doc/BP/Tracker/Watcher roles, and no such roles are in evidence to support the existence of a Cop. I still don’t really buy a possible Popular + Blackmailer + Lawyer, since those three don’t fit well with Epstein or Dershowitz, so I’d have to buy Luna’s scenario where the Singer and Vanillaizer are counters to his Cop specifically, and I just don’t. And it’s not just that. I don’t buy the unlimited Cop, especially not for a game fashioned by Savant and Pie. I checked back through their games and they’ve maxed out at a 1X Cop on a JOAT in all previous games. It doesn’t help that I believe I’m the only one to give a scum player a Popular role on top of one or more active roles, it’s not a common setup.

Behavior gets a lot trickier because I think both sides have points in their favor and against them. Kohai’s turn towards a townread on Thoth looks better after looking over his links, but not a lot. There’s only a little game solving in the first two, and it’s nothing stand-out. Just an odd basis for a townread. The turn towards a sus over the course of the remainder of DP2 seems more genuine and thought out. Luna’s perspective is more consistent, sussing Thoth pretty late in DP1 and largely maintaining that due to a lack of posting and some behavioral concerns. I still think it’s odd he didn’t follow up on his questions to Thoth and I don’t like his defense of not doing so, but he’s right that, if he did Cop him guilty, that’s a solid follow-up. I give Luna the edge here.

In terms of attempts to mislynch, there are differences between the sides, but the main distinction is direction and focus. Kohai was on more continuously. He was considering a broad assortment of potential pairings throughout the first 3 DPs and kept reconsidering his picks. I can see a world in which he was doing this to draw attention away from himself and Thoth and try to secure mislynches, though he’s not super consistent in his efforts to do so. By contrast, while Luna was more focused in his sus of Thoth, particular in DP2 and DP3, he admits that he largely just set it aside for DP2 to consider the 1v1 the rest of us were on. He was also on the same mislynch so many of us chose for Shining. They weren’t independent efforts to secure a mislynch, more just going with the flow, but I could see him as scum or town just using momentum to get a lynch. Basically, both of them look behaviorally middle of the road.

As for the value of the Thoth bus, I do think Kohai had an independent reason to tell Thoth to pretend he was Blackmailed (Luna’s red check). So I started looking back at DP3, mainly looking at how Kohai’s susses changed post-Luna’s claim. If his goal was to just straight up focus on Thoth, he had an odd way of going about it, initially splitting his attention between me and Thoth, then shifting to the tinfoil hat theory to put attention on Luna, then refocusing on me for a bit before returning to Thoth well after he claimed he’d been Blackmailed. He’s kind of all over the place. Maybe that was the aim, to draw attention wherever he could and pounce when the opportunity came, but dude was basically in the same place as Helz during their discussion and actively sussing me. It wouldn’t have taken more than a vote on me from Kohai to secure that lynch, so it was a confounding decision for scum Kohai to make.

By contrast, I agree with Luna that, if he was scum, the decision to get a red check on his partner closed off some very plausible routes to a mislynch on me in particular. He had the opportunity early on in the DP and Kohai had suggested he might go along with it, though he was also placing attention on the unclaimed players, namely Luna and Thoth. It doesn’t read as an automatically slam dunk case that would have converted into a mislynch, but throwing it away by claiming a red check on his partner would be particularly odd.

So both players had the opportunity to get the mislynch, and both of them pivoted to focus on Thoth. Luna would have had to claim Cop and use it specifically to bus his partner, while Kohai had a lot of the discussion with Helz to find himself in an opportune position to push a mislynch and just kept holding off from doing it despite sussing me multiple times and getting Helz on a similar page. I agree with Luna that the fact that he had the opportunity to engineer things and a claim on the table he could have used to do so is a point in his favor, but it’s not as big of a difference as he makes it out to be.

Overall, behaviorally, I think Luna’s more consistent, and to pull out that Cop claim only to use it against his own partner would have been a major loss with the hope that he could get me or Helz on his side in the final DP. I think Kohai’s claim makes more sense and while his behavior isn’t entirely off-base, there are some concerning edges to it even while I can’t reconcile his decision to pivot back towards Thoth after getting what looked like a feasible opportunity for a lynch on me. Both of you made decisions that don’t make sense if you’re scum. Both of you had obvious missed opportunities.

In the end, yeah, I’m voting Luna. I’d by lying if I said that wasn’t anything to do with the claim itself, which I think still stands as the sharpest contrast between you two, but that’s not the only thing I’m considering. I’m also not making that decision based on Luna’s propensity to fake a Cop claim, though he clearly has a history of doing it. I’m voting Luna in part because I think he’d take the risk expecting Thoth to be the lynch regardless of the early susses on me believing that it was going to garner him near certain victory at this point. That changed when Helz flipped over his cards and he realized he couldn't bank on him in the final 3. I’d have to believe that Kohai’s too passive, too patient, and willing to shift to his partner at a time when he had the best opportunity to get a mislynch, and I just don’t buy that that’s him.

If you read this far, it either means I'm a total fuck up or I got this right. Hoping for the latter.

Anyway, it's almost 1 AM and I'm feeling pretty exhausted. I'll give Luna the last word. I'll read it, then I'm making a call. I already have most of my thoughts written out, I just have to decide based on all that info who my lynch choice is.

Originally Posted by Lunatic on 10/14/2026 at 12:44 AM (post #223)

Like I said to kohai, in that situation you want to wait for someone else to lead that, that way he doesn't risk looking scummy if you guys end up changing your mind and voting thoth with me. The deicison wasn't clearly made to lynch outside of me and thoth, even though helz was puushing him. I think he was waiting for one of you or helz to pull the trigger, me pulling the trigger forced his hand and took that off the table.

I think you're underestimating just how long this discussion went on, how clearly onboard Helz was, and his own statement (that he restated and reenforced with your vote) that we have to be on the same page with the lynch. Helz was leading that charge, and for a good stretch, both Kohai and I were onboard to follow that lead. Is it possible Kohai was just nervous and unwilling to take the first step to ensure it? I guess, but man, it's hard to believe. It's even harder to believe that he'd initiate the transition to refocus on Thoth rather than try to get Helz to take that first step if you're right.

My point is my result and subsequent push on thoth and being the first to vote DID actually change that outcome. You are alive to make this decision because I enabled that with my result.

I'm not arguing that your vote didn't directly lead to the lynch on Thoth, man. I don't know why you keep making that same argument. And I've also several times recognized that, yes, you'd have to have chosen to bus your partner. Again, I believe that's true for both you and Kohai. The difference is that you would have had to actively engineer circumstances to that end, whereas Kohai would just have had to use the direction that Helz was taking things and post a vote when the opportune moment came.

Originally Posted by Lunatic on 10/14/2026 at 12:23 AM (post #218)

My vote forced him into a decision yes, and I don't agree that it was imperative for him to vote before that. He needed exactly one of you or helz to vote outside of him and thoth, before they could quick hammer. When I voted that option was off the table. At that point, he could only realistically vote for me. Also I was the one who steered helz away from going outside that when I told him I would rather go for the 50/50 than the 33/33/33. I forced the situation that led to the one good lynch we had in the game.

I agree that your vote forced a decision. Again, that's not my point. He had the votes before that to mislynch me. There are several posts where Helz confirms he wanted to lynch among the three of us. He confirmed that I was the most sus of the three of his from his perspective. If Kohai had voted, Helz likely would have gone along with him. Kohai had a long stretch of time when you weren't posting, he could have done it then. He didn't have to start turning back to considering Thoth, which he did in post #95 (https://www.debatecraft.com/mafia/c/active-games/posts/8h/epsteins-island-mafia-dp3?page=4&comment_number=95). That was almost 2 hours before you returned and started posting again.

So, again, why didn't he just VTL me and get it over with if he was scum?

I am not changing the point. Both things are true. My result is what put them into that situation in the first place, otherwise you were probably the intended lynch going into dp3. When I claimed my result that was temporarily off the table until Helz reintroduced the idea of lynching outside of the 50/50.

Even with your result, both Kohai and Helz were considering my lynch well into the DP. I was the intended lynch for a good stretch in the middle of it. Did the result shift attention? Absolutely. Did it stay there and there was never any consideration of my lynch because of it? No, clearly not.

Originally Posted by Lunatic on 10/13/2026 at 11:59 PM (post #210)

Im just being thorough and trying to adress everything. If you feel it;s getting repetitive I am happy to stop, just trying to make sure we have everything covered before the decision.

I'll do one more round of this. I've already written up some of my thoughts and changed things as we've been discussing it. There's no final decision yet.

Originally Posted by Lunatic on 10/13/2026 at 11:56 PM (post #209)

I disagree, I had a choice, kohai didn't. I forced the vote yesterday. With unvoting not being allowed, I was forcing the vote in #140. Helz called attention to that in #142 when he said "So to be clear- every single town has to vote together for town not to loose. Given Luna voted and can not unvote we now are obligated to pull this trigger."

I still feel like we're not talking about the same thing here. I'm talking about before your vote, when there was ample discussion of the choice between VTLing me and Kohai. All three of you were pretty much on the same page that, if you were lynching in that pool, I would be the pick. And it only would have taken two of you voting to get there. Kohai could have VTL'd me at any point after Helz made the decision to refocus on the three of us and pretty much been guaranteed to get his support. He basically said as much. So yeah, I believe he had the choice. He didn't take it. Why not?

The timeline doesn't match up to this. Kohai expressed an interest in pivoting attention back to Thoth before you voted. If your point is that he wouldn't have voted Thoth without you posting a vote first, then I'm surprised he made statements like:

"I think lynching Thoth is the best because in a w!Thoth we force scum to resolve Luna for us." #95

"The longer Thoth does nothing the more I wanna resolve him today" #137

Both posts happened before you posted the vote.

But both of those posts came after my claim at #20. Preferring Thoth once a cop has red-checked him isn’t an independent read, it’s following the result. And in between he was still floating “Thoth is the real cop. The core point doesn’t depend on how Kohai voted anyway. The only person who decided to give up Thoth is whoever created the guilty on him. If Kohai is scum, he was reacting to a result he couldn’t dispute. If I’m scum, I invented it while a guilty on you, which you just agreed had a more than decent chance, was sitting right there.

You're changing the point now. Your argument was that your vote was the thing that triggered Kohai to suddenly turn on Thoth. Now you're saying that your Cop result forced him to turn on Thoth, despite multiple times pointing to how he was all over me and searching for a mislynch a lot of the time in between your Cop result and the vote.

The point is I had an oppertunity for a game winning mislynch and didn't take it. Thats the takeaway here.

And my point is, so did he.

It verifies my results.

Yes, and we've been over this, too.

Originally Posted by Lunatic on 10/13/2026 at 11:42 PM (post #201)

So, let's be thorough about this.

You're right about post #2. He also said he didn't want to rush to a decision.

You left out post #3, where he questioned the WIFOM of my being Vanillaized.

He then pointed to the two teams in #5.

He sussed Thoth's flavor claim in #7 and even suggested a theme split that would have placed Thoth in scum.

Then he pushed for your and Thoth's full claims in #13 and posted a variety of possible pairings in #18.

I think it actually helps my point. In #5 and #18 Kohai was already worried about a Luna/Thoth team, and in #7 attention was building on Thoth. If I’m scum, my partner is drawing heat and the town’s main voice is already pairing us. The last thing I do is put a guilty on Thoth and walk straight into that pairing. I redirect onto you, which Kohai already leaned in #2 and #3. I did the opposite.

Said it several times already, but I'll repeat: I recognize that the bus doesn't make obvious sense from you. I've said already how it also doesn't make sense from Kohai's perspective later in the DP.

Every result has been checked against reality. Helz flipped town, Thoth flipped Maxwell, and you know you’re town. I get that a scum faking cop would know those too. So the only question is why I’d pick those results. You just said a fake guilty on you had a “more than decent likelihood” of winning the game. If I’m scum, that’s the result I give. I gave you a green check and handed you my “partner” instead.

We've been over this, too. Several times.

That’s all I’ve got. Whatever you decide, thanks for actually digging into it.

Yup... got a lot to pour over...

Originally Posted by Lunatic on 10/13/2026 at 11:18 PM (post #197)

I don’t think it’s symmetrical. The only person who decided to give up Thoth is whoever put the guilty on him. If Kohai is scum, a cop just red-checked his partner and he can’t counterclaim it, so voting Thoth isn’t a choice, it’s forced. If I’m scum, I had to manufacture that guilty while a free lynch was sitting there. One of us reacted to a result. The other would have had to invent it.

I think you're misunderstanding my point. The symmetry is that both of you had the opportunity to mislynch me if you're scum, and neither of you took it. In your case, that opportunity came when you claimed and said your target was Thoth. In his case, that opportunity came when Helz and Kohai were on the same page about lynching me out of the three of us. They both expressed it multiple times. He couldn't have engineered that opportunity like you could, but he nonetheless had it, and if they'd both voted for me, Thoth would have hammered. So yes, the symmetry is the bus. You both chose to do so when you had a mislynch opportunity on the table.

Kohai was very resistant to lynching Thoth up until the moment I forced the vote by voting thoth first, even when he was willing to lynch between us, he was spreading bussing paranoia and suspicion about me. I never fully got the feeling from him that he was on board with lynching thoth until it would have appeared scummy as heck not to vote him. The difference in our positions related to thoth is that Kohai was forced into a thoth lynch, I actively wanted one. The only argument that can be made for me lynching thoth there was that I wanted to bus. I only bus out of necessity, not insanity. There is no reason to bus here.

The timeline doesn't match up to this. Kohai expressed an interest in pivoting attention back to Thoth before you voted. If your point is that he wouldn't have voted Thoth without you posting a vote first, then I'm surprised he made statements like:

"I think lynching Thoth is the best because in a w!Thoth we force scum to resolve Luna for us." #95

"The longer Thoth does nothing the more I wanna resolve him today" #137

Both posts happened before you posted the vote.

On consistency, that’s after my claim at #20. Pushing Thoth after a cop guilty is following the cop, not an independent read. And between my claim and #99 he was floating “Thoth is the real cop” in #51 and #86.

We've been over the timeline here, too. Kohai did express some suspicions over Thoth in DP2. And yes, you've kept pointing back to the tinfoil hat theory. Covered that, too.

I mean within the world we’re testing. If I’m scum, then Helz, Kohai and you are all town. Any lynch in that pool wins. That’s what makes it free.

Again, pointing to the fact that both of you had the opportunity for a mislynch.

Thoth’s flip verifies it lol

Thoth's flip verifies that he was scum. It doesn't verify your role, dude.

Originally Posted by Lunatic on 10/13/2026 at 11:05 PM (post #194)

Making it obvious that you have a green check on someone kind of defeats the purpose of not immediately just revealing the result. I didn't feel like helz was an immediate lynch, if I did I would have happily revealed and blown my cover to save him. But magic insta voting him is part of the reason I suspected magic in the first place. I was also open to my result not being accurate, beccause at the time I thought there was likely a lawyer or godfather. There still might be. Regardless, I don't see a world where cop should reveal innocents unless its absolutely neccesary to do so.

Dropping this point. It's not really relevant to any decision I'd make anyway.

Unfortunately most of the case me or kohai can make against each other will essentially boil down to WIFOM, the only evidence I have is my results, which you don't seem to place a ton of stock in, so it is what it is.

It's not that I'm not putting stock in your results, they matter strategically. I can't verify that evidence, though, whether you have it or not.

Look at what happened before my claim at #20:

#2, Kohai: “Almost certain it’s wf.”

#5, Kohai: worried about a Helz/Luna or Luna/Thoth team.

#7, Kohai: Thoth’s flavor “sticks out.”

So, let's be thorough about this.

You're right about post #2. He also said he didn't want to rush to a decision.

You left out post #3, where he questioned the WIFOM of my being Vanillaized.

He then pointed to the two teams in #5.

He sussed Thoth's flavor claim in #7 and even suggested a theme split that would have placed Thoth in scum.

Then he pushed for your and Thoth's full claims in #13 and posted a variety of possible pairings in #18.

So at the exact moment I claimed, Kohai was already almost certain on you, and attention was starting to turn to Thoth. If I’m scum, the move is obvious: claim cop with a guilty on WF. It confirms Kohai’s own top read, so he votes with me. Thoth votes. That’s three, and the game’s over in the first hour. It also pulls attention off Thoth right as it’s building.

I didn’t need Helz’s plan to have a route. The easiest scum win in the game was sitting there the moment I claimed, and it matched what Kohai already believed. Instead I put a guilty on the guy Kohai was worried was my partner.

The above starts off reading as almost certain on me, but then deviates and becomes more about the game generally and the unknowns in play. I think it's possible you're right that a faked guilty on me could have led to a lynch. I know both Helz and Kohai spent a lot of time agonizing over the decision and seemed to be zeroing in on me for a bit. I'm not absolutely certain of it, but yeah, more than decent likelihood.

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/13/2026 at 9:42 PM (post #192)

Around 10 hours or so remaining. I’m going to sleep soon. Feel free to ask me any final questions though I feel like I’ve said everything already.

Yeah, decision’s happening tonight. I feel like we’ve exhausted the majority of discussion points. I’m going to do some digging through the links you posted, revisit DP3 a bit, and address anything lingering from you and Luna before I VTL. I will post reasoning with it, not sure how long it’s going to be but I don’t want to write a massive essay after all this so it’ll likely be mostly summary.

Originally Posted by Lunatic on 10/13/2026 at 8:07 PM (post #187)

Good morning, im up.. Kohai I'll address your points in a single post.

Hey, glad you got some rest, dude.

No hints on Helz DP2: I was “very very dubious” of the Helz wagon in #42 and called it a possible frame. I pushed back on being paired with him in #39 and floated a Helz/Magic bus instead. That’s what a cop protecting an inno without outing himself looks like.

It's not really a question of whether you were townreading Helz in DP2. Helz himself acknowledged that you were, and I've acknowledged it as well. The question is more specific: do your posts give any kind of indication that you used your Cop role and got a green check on Helz? That "very very dubious" line came after an explanation that focused on Mag1c's sussing him and choosing him as a Blackmail target. If I squint, maybe that's an indicator that you had inside information, but FYI, if you'd been NK'd at the end of DP2, I wouldn't have seen it as obvious that you'd gotten a green check on him. Pushing back on being paired with him even less so. I'm not fixating on this, it's a minor point at best, but it's a point that still stands.

Hypos: nobody posted hypos DP2. The N0 system only works if everyone does it. If I’m the only one posting “hypothetical results” on day 2, I’ve outed myself as the cop. I endorsed the system, I didn’t endorse suicide.

I'm just not putting much stock in hypos, so I'm going to leave this.

“Why would I have Thoth fake blackmail?”: in your scum world, Thoth just got caught by a real cop. His only out is making town doubt that cop. The blackmail claim produced exactly that: the “Thoth is the real cop and scum silenced him” tinfoil. Go look at who pushed it. You did, #51 and #86 of DP3.

This is your strongest point. It's something I've been considering for a while and I think you're right that Kohai had an independent reason if he is scum to have Thoth claim to be Blackmailed and then push attention onto him, which is your red check on Thoth. I agree that that's the case. As for the tinfoil point, it was always pretty weak (calling it tinfoil in the first place didn't give it much weight or staying power and the idea basically was dead when Thoth hadn't autovoted you), though I get your meaning that it necessarily did put attention on you.

“A fake guilty on WF was too risky”: handing town my own partner was way riskier than that. And Helz’s plan didn’t need a guilty at all. One vote inside his pool and the game’s over.

I agree there was a risk in handing over your partner, and the opportunity to get that one vote would have been very tempting if you were scum.

The meta: every result I’ve given in this game flipped exactly as I said. That’s what WF is weighing, not Majora’s Mask.

WF, Kohai still hasn’t answered your #174. He keeps saying I bussed but can’t explain why I’d bus instead of taking the free lynch. That’s the whole case.

I agreed with this at first, but looking over his response, he does actually say what he thinks was going on: that based on the timing of your claim and list of selected targets and results, you might not have believed you had an easy route to victory through a lynch on either me or Kohai. I'm going to read back through a lot of the early DP3 to see if that tracks, but the argument may have merit since I believe the suggestion to focus on Helz, Kohai and me came significantly later. It's not as strong as your argument, but it's not implausible from where I'm sitting.

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/13/2026 at 6:40 PM (post #183)

Originally Posted by whiteflame on 10/13/2026 at 6:37 PM (post #182)

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/13/2026 at 6:28 PM (post #179)

Originally Posted by whiteflame on 10/13/2026 at 5:47 PM (post #174)

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/13/2026 at 4:25 PM (post #173)

Originally Posted by whiteflame on 10/13/2026 at 4:10 PM (post #172)

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/13/2026 at 4:04 PM (post #169)

I'll be back in about an hr or so but one more thing I want you to really consider

behavior wise: We now know the blackmailer was one shot. Thoth hard claimed being blackmailed and shut up for the rest of the day phase. Why would I, if I was Thoth's partner, have him make this play? It was a clear setup for a very hard bus from the beginning.

Pretty clear that, regardless of which of you is scum, it was a bussing tactic.

Exactly. That was Luna’s plan. Hard claim guilty on partner, make him shut up and make him claim he was blackmailed

The question for me is, would he be likely to do that when he already had the comparatively simpler option of just getting me lynched?

Yes. It's clear that scum was planning to bus Thoth. What motive do I have to tell Thoth to fake that he was blackmailed?

I’d actually like your thoughts on that as well when you get around to answering the questions I posed earlier. I know from your perspective, that would have to be the only option. But put yourself in my shoes. Can you explain why Luna would favor pocketing Helz last DP over just getting a fake red check on me and pushing for my lynch?

Faking red checks on town is a very risky move for scum. For one, there is still the unknown of whether or not yourself or another town member could clear you. Second, if you are going ot fake claim cop you're gonna have go give us something. It's very easy for scum to fake cop results.

You’re going to need to get into this more. In the context of DP3 where we all largely bought his Cop claim, what was the risk of claiming a red check? You seemed poised to VTL me for a while without a red check, so did Helz. Why not take advantage of that?

I hade made it abundanelty clear in the day phase that I was paranoid of luna. If there ended up being a 1v1 between you and Luna there's a very strong risk that I'd come around and end up voting luna.

and look, post # 5

https://www.debatecraft.com/mafia/c/active-games/posts/8h/epsteins-island-mafia-dp3?comment_number=5

"My main worry is a Helz / Luna team or a Luna / Thoth team."

Called it.

So faking a guilty on you was very risky. Especially since I was already questioning my read on you originally

https://www.debatecraft.com/mafia/c/active-games/posts/8h/epsteins-island-mafia-dp3?comment_number=3

the Big WIfOM question; Would wf claim vanillaized?

So from luna's POV a 1v1 between the two of you would have been too risky

So your argument is that the lynch choice wasn't a given, and that Luna's decision to give a red check on Thoth instead of you or me was driven by the belief that he needed to establish distance between the two of them because, at least at the time, it looked like the focus would be on Thoth and Luna. Am I summarizing that correctly?

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/13/2026 at 6:35 PM (post #181)

I still feel like I'm repeating myself ad nauseum and don't feel like you're actually listening to me. Luna's behavior doesn't match what we'd expect from a cop. That right there is the entire solve.

I’ve acknowledged those issues, dude. I’m focusing in on the areas that don’t match what I’d expect from Luna as scum, not those issues I feel have been discussed. I appreciate the repetition, but I’m not in the business of rehashing what I think we’ve already covered.

Anyway, concert. I’ll check in afterwards.

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/13/2026 at 6:28 PM (post #179)

Originally Posted by whiteflame on 10/13/2026 at 5:47 PM (post #174)

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/13/2026 at 4:25 PM (post #173)

Originally Posted by whiteflame on 10/13/2026 at 4:10 PM (post #172)

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/13/2026 at 4:04 PM (post #169)

I'll be back in about an hr or so but one more thing I want you to really consider

behavior wise: We now know the blackmailer was one shot. Thoth hard claimed being blackmailed and shut up for the rest of the day phase. Why would I, if I was Thoth's partner, have him make this play? It was a clear setup for a very hard bus from the beginning.

Pretty clear that, regardless of which of you is scum, it was a bussing tactic.

Exactly. That was Luna’s plan. Hard claim guilty on partner, make him shut up and make him claim he was blackmailed

The question for me is, would he be likely to do that when he already had the comparatively simpler option of just getting me lynched?

Yes. It's clear that scum was planning to bus Thoth. What motive do I have to tell Thoth to fake that he was blackmailed?

I’d actually like your thoughts on that as well when you get around to answering the questions I posed earlier. I know from your perspective, that would have to be the only option. But put yourself in my shoes. Can you explain why Luna would favor pocketing Helz last DP over just getting a fake red check on me and pushing for my lynch?

Faking red checks on town is a very risky move for scum. For one, there is still the unknown of whether or not yourself or another town member could clear you. Second, if you are going ot fake claim cop you're gonna have go give us something. It's very easy for scum to fake cop results.

You’re going to need to get into this more. In the context of DP3 where we all largely bought his Cop claim, what was the risk of claiming a red check? You seemed poised to VTL me for a while without a red check, so did Helz. Why not take advantage of that?

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/13/2026 at 6:07 PM (post #176)

I'm here. I've really feel like I said all I could at this point. Just ask yourself the following questions:

1) Does Luna's D2 behavior match that of a cop with a n1 inno on Helz?

2) Does his behavior match up with his day 1 bandwagoning the hypos?

3) Does the mech and flavor add up?

Luna's claim does not match either the flavor, mechanics, nor his behavior.

Well, I’d appreciate responses to #160 and #174 before you leave off. I’ve seen a lot of reasons why I should sus Luna from you, but just short defenses of yourself and no real response to the question of why Luna chose to bus Thoth rather than push for a lynch on me or you last DP.

I have less time this evening than I thought since my wife has a performance she wants us to attend. I’ll still be available tonight, though there might be a couple of hours in there where I’m not. Just a heads up.

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/13/2026 at 4:25 PM (post #173)

Originally Posted by whiteflame on 10/13/2026 at 4:10 PM (post #172)

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/13/2026 at 4:04 PM (post #169)

I'll be back in about an hr or so but one more thing I want you to really consider

behavior wise: We now know the blackmailer was one shot. Thoth hard claimed being blackmailed and shut up for the rest of the day phase. Why would I, if I was Thoth's partner, have him make this play? It was a clear setup for a very hard bus from the beginning.

Pretty clear that, regardless of which of you is scum, it was a bussing tactic.

Exactly. That was Luna’s plan. Hard claim guilty on partner, make him shut up and make him claim he was blackmailed

The question for me is, would he be likely to do that when he already had the comparatively simpler option of just getting me lynched?

I’d actually like your thoughts on that as well when you get around to answering the questions I posed earlier. I know from your perspective, that would have to be the only option. But put yourself in my shoes. Can you explain why Luna would favor pocketing Helz last DP over just getting a fake red check on me and pushing for my lynch?

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/13/2026 at 4:04 PM (post #169)

I'll be back in about an hr or so but one more thing I want you to really consider behavior wise: We now know the blackmailer was one shot. Thoth hard claimed being blackmailed and shut up for the rest of the day phase. Why would I, if I was Thoth's partner, have him make this play? It was a clear setup for a very hard bus from the beginning.

Pretty clear that, regardless of which of you is scum, it was a bussing tactic.

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/13/2026 at 4:04 PM (post #170)

At this point I feel like I"m just repeating myself ad nauseum and just screaming into a void with no one even bothering to listen to me

I mean, I'm reading everything you've got, and I'm sure you'll get responses from Luna as well. It's not just going into the void.

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/13/2026 at 1:41 PM (post #167)

Originally Posted by whiteflame on 10/13/2026 at 1:39 PM (post #166)

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/13/2026 at 1:35 PM (post #164)

Originally Posted by whiteflame on 10/13/2026 at 1:33 PM (post #163)

I'm going to let you guys cook with responses for a while. I know Luna will be longer, but I'll plan to pick this back up towards the end of the workday and see if Kohai has posted any more details. More is better in this case, these short responses aren't really telling me much.

Fair points.

If you were forced to vote right this second who would you vote for and why?

I'm not going to engage with that, sorry. I get the sentiment, but I feel I need to get a more in-depth conversation going between the two of us before I can make a clear call. I have a stronger basis for how I'm seeing Luna right now than I do for you, so that means the decision would be colored by that lack of clarity.

Fair. I get off work at 330 then have Hebrew school till 5. I’ll be on aound 515 and we can hash things out

Alright, then I'll make it a slightly longer break. Better to take my mind off of this for a while.

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/13/2026 at 1:35 PM (post #164)

Originally Posted by whiteflame on 10/13/2026 at 1:33 PM (post #163)

I'm going to let you guys cook with responses for a while. I know Luna will be longer, but I'll plan to pick this back up towards the end of the workday and see if Kohai has posted any more details. More is better in this case, these short responses aren't really telling me much.

Fair points.

If you were forced to vote right this second who would you vote for and why?

I'm not going to engage with that, sorry. I get the sentiment, but I feel I need to get a more in-depth conversation going between the two of us before I can make a clear call. I have a stronger basis for how I'm seeing Luna right now than I do for you, so that means the decision would be colored by that lack of clarity.

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/13/2026 at 1:33 PM (post #162)

Saw this, responding before I go.

Originally Posted by whiteflame on 10/13/2026 at 1:23 PM (post #161)

A bit better. He's definitely indicating that, if he was the Cop, he'd drop some hints in the DP. He hasn't indicated that he did, and aside from some light read changes, I didn't see anything. Maybe that means he hadn't established it as his fake claim.

This is the only explanation that makes sense.

Maybe that's a misdirect aimed at giving scum less of an indication that he's the Cop.

But that makes no sense. If he himself admitted hypo targets were a good idea how would we possibly have figured out he got an N1 inno on Helz jr he actually was the cop?

The idea here would have been that he was signaling to scum "I'm not doing this, therefore you shouldn't believe I'm the Cop." I've got issues with that read, mainly because it's a little too weird. It would mean he's drawing attention to minor cues and then failing to give them purposefully just to draw attention away from him, while simultaneously recognizing that doing so is a net negative for town.

mobike posting will respond to other stuff later

Alright, take your time and post more thoroughly in response to my questions if possible.

I'm going to let you guys cook with responses for a while. I know Luna will be longer, but I'll plan to pick this back up towards the end of the workday and see if Kohai has posted any more details. More is better in this case, these short responses aren't really telling me much.

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/13/2026 at 12:39 PM (post #154)

Just realized something. This js now the third game where he fake claimed cop. In each of those games he was the last person to claim.

Majoras Mask - Fake claimed cop with inno on Mag1c. He was caught partially because Mag1c flipped wolf

Apocalypse mafia - Claimed cop as well

This game - Claimed cop

It’s very easy to fake claim cop when you are the last to claim. Notice in none of those games was there a direct counter to cop either.

Make of that what you wish

Technically speaking, he wasn't the last person to claim this game. Helz full claimed after him, having lied about the Soldier bit. Thoth never claimed, but that's not important. He does have a tendency to fake claim Cop, you're right about that. It's pretty clear he recognizes it, and he's always slow to claim it, using the opportunity of not having an apparent CC as a reason to get in there. In this game especially, given the relative paucity of investigatives, it's not really a question of whether he could have seen the opportunity and used it. It's a question of whether he'd use it like this.

Hold up. I caught a huge slip from Luna.

He claimed n1 that he had an inno on Helz N1. Go through Luna’s day 2 ISO carefully. At no point did he try and hint to his result, which is something any cop should do. But it gets even worse. He stared

What I find interesting about this analysis is how you are removing certain teams based on loosely explained town reads like Noah and thoth, which feel more like vibe reads, and you lumping me in with helz.You are ignoring a helz/magic bus for some reason, but you also think someone like me who is notorious for bussing as scum (I seriously do it every game, even last game I was scum with Pie I bussed him), yet you think I am paired with helz despite never pushing him once and even defending that I wouldn't lynch him dp1. So your proposing that I randomly switched into a meta where I pro buddying my team mate? The whole POE analysis feels far too early to be put

That bold is where the main slip is. A cop with an inno on Helz wouldn’t say that.

I see your point, but I wouldn't expect a Cop to just outright trust their results straight up. I'll also note that Helz ISO'd him as well and wasn't put off by any of his posts, finding examples of a shifting posture. It's not nothing, but mentioning a possibility once isn't that damning.

The behavior slip gets even worse. During day 1 when Helz was asking for Hypos his reaction

https://www.debatecraft.com/mafia/c/active-games/posts/8f/epsteins-island-mafia-dp1?comment_number=314

This part actually makes a lot of sense to me. How many times do we lose cops who got innocents on someone and no one knew who the innocent was?While we don't have np0 on this site often, its definitely something that can be useful in the future. I don't think this exposes a cop if every person has to do it, and it doesn't tell them who they are going to cop, only who they would have if they did already. I just disagree with this as a FOS point. The rest is kind of meh in regards to helz. Open to him being scum but I don't know if he's the dp1 lynch based on anything I've seen so far. Shining has done nothing since posting he was here.m

His behavior doesn’t match. Ask yourself: If he’s the cop why doesn’t he drop hyupos or hints? Especially after accepting that mechanic day 1

A bit better. He's definitely indicating that, if he was the Cop, he'd drop some hints in the DP. He hasn't indicated that he did, and aside from some light read changes, I didn't see anything. Maybe that means he hadn't established it as his fake claim. Maybe that's a misdirect aimed at giving scum less of an indication that he's the Cop.

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/13/2026 at 10:59 AM (post #145)

On lunch break catching up some

Originally Posted by whiteflame on 10/13/2026 at 10:47 AM (post #144)

I don't want this to be solely between me and Luna, and I do think some points have been brought up that require your attention.

Why did you townread Thoth early in DP2? That did seem off given a lack of contribution by Thoth at the time, and a shift in perspective from recognizing that lack in DP1. You said it was because he was behaviorally consistent with last game. What gave you that impression?

Fair questions. Mainly

1) I felt there was some genuine effort to game solve

Could you point me to the posts where you saw him trying to solve?

2) I felt his ISO was similar to his previous town games

Could you give me examples of similar behavior from previous games, particularly DP1 and early DP2?

3) Granted he did have two valid excuses (hurricane and sick) so I was giving him more leeway

Fair, I think we all were.

You said you were going to ISO him later in that DP. Why didn't that happen?

This past weekend was extraordinarily busy for me. I had shnagogue and Hebrew school + a whole bunch of extra work to get done. I simply didn’t get around to it.

Alright. I'd still like to understand what that ISO would have looked like, hence the above questions.

I'd also like to understand the transition to sussing him better, since much of it happened over the course of DP2. You saw that Magoroth sussed him in the previous DP, and even went so far as to ask Thoth whether he had a Vanillaizing role. What led you to ask Luna and Thoth if they had Vanillaizing roles? Walk me through that thought process.

1. Mag died voting Thoth. If a player was night killed by scum then there is probably a strong reason for it. I stated that explicitly in post 87

So that was the major reason? Nothing behavioral?

2. There was some discussion whether or not this role could have been a town silencer or something of that nature. He was one of ten only people who didn’t claim anything yet

I think you meant "one of the only people," but I get your point. I was the one who had expressed concerns about the existence of a town role that Vanillaizes. Between that and the earlier statement about concern over a Vanillaizer, I do have my doubts, though I have a hard time believing you both would be that blatant.

Your timeline breaks the theory. Helz claimed Soldier at #44 of DP3. Thoth was still alive. So if my “pocket Helz” plan died at that moment, I had the entire rest of the day to pivot. And Helz handed me the pivot himself. From #60 on, he was pushing to lynch inside the Helz/Kohai/WF pool and leave me and Thoth alone. He even put himself in it. Any lynch there is 2v2 and the game ends on the spot. That’s the scum win, delivered by the town Soldier. What did I do? I argued against it. #111: “you are taking the odds from a 50/50 to a 33/33/33.” I kept pushing until Thoth was hammered. So your theory needs me to have a plan, watch it break, get handed a guaranteed win immediately afterward, and turn it down to lynch my own partner. There’s no version of scum that does that. Pocketing Helz was never the plan. Finding scum was.

I've already covered the timeline here, including post #111. I agree, both you and Kohai had a lot of incentive to lynch among me, Helz and Kohai, with Kohai targeting me and you targeting either Kohai or me. I believe that you both had that opportunity, so one of you had a decision to make and you went with a bus instead. For either of you, when you made that decision, Helz necessarily had to be the NK that NP. That's not uncertain. What is uncertain is which of you made that call.

I personally don't see you highlighting a specific issue with balance other than not loving it. It's always going to be hard to say what is balanced or not without knowing the full set up, but at least from seeing thoth's role pm and the claims we have on the board I could probably say it's a bit swingy and power dependent, but it seems consistent with both sides so far, obviously not accounting for the remaining scum role we don't know about. Nothing really has bugged me about pie signing off on this yet.

Again, I've set aside concerns about balance because I can see them for both sides. I've set those aside.

Nah. I deserve every ounce of credit for that lynch. With all due respect to helz, he was about to gamble that between you and kohai, and from the looks of it, he was leaning voting you last day phase. Me forcing the vote onto thoth, who I knew was scum based on my result potentially saved the game here. I am not convinced you guys were lynching thoth without my severe push. I will happily take credit for it, whether you want to award it to me or not.

Based on the timeline I'm reading (look at my previous post), Kohai was poised to make the same decision you did. Helz had already said that we all had to be aligned to successfully lynch last DP. The fact that he hadn't locked in yet and you had is a point in your favor. His consistency from post #99 onward is a point in his.

Understood. You’ve got my reasoning on Thoth and I’m not going to keep relitigating one follow-up. Weigh it how you see fit.

I’d just ask that when you make the call, you put it next to the big pieces: every result I gave flipped exactly as I said; a fake cop picks his own results and any fake guilty on a townie won DP3; and after Helz claimed Soldier and offered to lynch inside his own pool, I argued against the free scum win and pushed Thoth instead. One missing follow-up on DP2 doesn’t outweigh that. I don't think there was as much of a follow up gap there as "It can wait to be resolved" because regardless of his answers he wasn't going to be lynched and we could pursue him the next day, unless he was a night kill, which would have been optimal for solving him anyway. If you think I am being defensive, it's because I feel like this is kind of a dumb thing to pursue me for. I just don't see this through the same lens as you, maybe I will have to accept that. But if I get lynched over logic like this I am going to be fairly annoyed.

We've been over the consistency of the flips and your results. I've covered that multiple times now, though if you're just looking for where I've landed with it, I'll say it's more likely than not a positive sign.

The phrasing on some of this, however, is a little off. You said that you "argued against the free scum win" by arguing that we should lynch Thoth. Knowing what you know now, the "free scum win" would only have happened if we'd lynched Helz (wasn't going to happen) or me (a reasonable possibility). The Kohai lynch, from your perspective, would have successfully eliminated scum, so no, lynching among the three of us wasn't a "free scum win" by default.

I'm going to set aside my issues with your follow-up to Thoth for now. I think you have a point about how you followed up in different ways, even if the main one - the red check - is one I can't verify you got.

It's not just one issue, man. I'm considering a lot of points, and yes, that's going to take time and effort to go through. Regardless of the outcome, I want my choice to be as fully informed as possible. And yeah, that's going to require kicking all the tires.

Originally Posted by Lunatic on 10/13/2026 at 11:03 AM (post #146)

Going to start breaking this back up into separate posts so that it's not just a wall of text.

You were the biggest mislynch target, one of the most talked about since dp1. I could have easily got you lynched yesterday. I didn't. I stuck with my result. It's obvious that if I was scum I would lynch you yesterday, not leave you alive and put my balls in a vice grip that lets you crush them dp4 for no reason.

This much I believe. I think coming off of the Blackmail confirmation following Mag1c's lynch, there was bound to be a lot of pressure on me going into DP3. There's a reason I sounded pretty defeated towards the end of the DP, so yes, I believe it would have made sense to put attention on me. The rest makes enough sense as town or scum if I interrogate it, but you would've known going into DP3 that the 1v1 from the previous DP would have put me directly in the crosshairs. It's the strongest point in your favor.

Those issues are based on wrong pre-conceived notions of balance. We have already been screwed by that with magic. We aren't letting it screw us over twice are we?

Said this a couple of times, but those issues with preconceived notions of balance swing both ways. I think the balance looks pretty off regardless of which of you I think is scum, so I'm not really considering balance.

I mean even without a red check on you guys it could have happened, and I disagree that I would have had to have been all in on the start. I made the call to stick with thoth and voted him after helz had pushed heavily for lynching thoths presumed scum partner.

If you were scum with the aim of lynching one of us (Helz, Kohai or me), you would've had to have been all-in from the start of the DP with your claim and use your result to sus one of us. I think we agree on that, despite what you've said here. As for the latter statement, I'm looking back through the progression of DP3 now.

In post #99, Kohai made clear his preference to lynch Thoth.

You pushed back on the decision to lynch between the three of us in #111.

In #121, you shifted to more of a go with the flow position, following Helz's lead.

In #126, you made clear that it was a 50/50 decision for you, changing the math you'd expressed in #111.

In #137, Kohai reaffirmed his view that Thoth should be the lynch.

You VTLed Thoth in #140.

I give both you and Kohai credit for pushing attention back to Thoth. I give you credit for VTLing first. I'd say Kohai's intent was clear and consistent from post #99 onward, while you wavered a bit in your choice. The points are in both your favors.

I was the first person to vote him which started everyone else voting him. I had to get that going, otherwise you guys seemed to be leaning outside of me/thoth scenario. People were considering my results before that and even kohai was spreading paranoia about a bus then. You think I would have just stuck to bussing when I had a clear out given to me by helz? Why? Again Thoth probably wasn't getting lynched had I not voted him first. The mechanic of us not being able to unvote forced everyones hand into that vote.

Yeah, noted above. You were the first to VTL him. I disagree that there was no way a vote was ever going to shift towards Thoth at that point, especially given what Kohai was saying at the time.

As for the "clear out given to [you] by helz", I'll point out again that the "out" was never a vote. There was support for a different decision, one you could have supported as well. You didn't. Neither did Kohai at that point. Maybe Kohai was contemplating it before and could see the writing on the wall. I'm not convinced of that from reading through his posts, but I'll consider it.

I just watched you blatantly tell him he has the edge. I can see the writing on the wall here, and you've already saida the mechanical stuff is more what you care about, and you told him he has an edge on me mechanically. I mean I disagree entirely with that notion, but I just see you voting me and saying something like "I can't get the mechanical issue out of my head, so Im going with lunatic". It's going to be disheartening to lose to something like that.

I said he has the edge on one specific issue, namely the flavor claim. I didn't say he has the edge on every single thing I'm considering, and I've outright said mechanics aren't the only thing I'm considering. Again, dude, I'm engaging with you in good faith. Try to take me at my word.

In the context of "distancing" what pattern have I followed other than being consistently suspicious of the same person? Non committal distancing is by far more scummy imo.

Feel like I've been pretty clear about the patterns I've been seeing, and no, I've never stated that your goal was obviously to distance yourself from him. I don't think either of you were committing to being against Thoth until DP3, so if noncommittal distancing is scummy, then I'd argue that both of you have that knock against you.

I'll get to the rest of this later.

Originally Posted by Lunatic on 10/13/2026 at 11:09 AM (post #147)

Also I will be going to bed in roughly 3-4 hours tops, I will do my best to maintain composure, but the more tired I get the harder it is to think straight.

I'll get back to the wall of text in a bit, but dude, get some sleep. I'll hold off on making a final call until you're back up this evening.

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/13/2026 at 10:59 AM (post #145)

On lunch break catching up some

Originally Posted by whiteflame on 10/13/2026 at 10:47 AM (post #144)

I don't want this to be solely between me and Luna, and I do think some points have been brought up that require your attention.

Why did you townread Thoth early in DP2? That did seem off given a lack of contribution by Thoth at the time, and a shift in perspective from recognizing that lack in DP1. You said it was because he was behaviorally consistent with last game. What gave you that impression?

Fair questions. Mainly

1) I felt there was some genuine effort to game solve

2) I felt his ISO was similar to his previous town games

3) Granted he did have two valid excuses (hurricane and sick) so I was giving him more leeway

Will respond to rest later.

I'll hold off on responding to this until I get the rest.

I don't want this to be solely between me and Luna, and I do think some points have been brought up that require your attention.

Why did you townread Thoth early in DP2? That did seem off given a lack of contribution by Thoth at the time, and a shift in perspective from recognizing that lack in DP1. You said it was because he was behaviorally consistent with last game. What gave you that impression?

You said you were going to ISO him later in that DP. Why didn't that happen?

I'd also like to understand the transition to sussing him better, since much of it happened over the course of DP2. You saw that Magoroth sussed him in the previous DP, and even went so far as to ask Thoth whether he had a Vanillaizing role. What led you to ask Luna and Thoth if they had Vanillaizing roles? Walk me through that thought process.