whiteflame

Hmm that’s a fair point. So that leaves you and REF basically

Assuming Kohai's scum, yes. My read on you in particular rides on that.

I basically agree with your analysis. Assuming Kohai is scum, I don't think you'd go through all this effort to push his lynch as his partner, and given that I think Kohai would have to be the recruit (I haven't had time to write up my main reads post as planned), that also means I don't buy Casey/Mikal as OG scum (the timing doesn't work out and I don't think Thoth is doing that much work for Casey in absentia). I agree that the partial confirmation between Mikal's result and Vader's gives him some decent coverage as well, and I don't think Kyuubey would get to use a mass recruit and a redirector in the same night. I'm less certain of Wryly, though I think the decision to stand out with both the statement that she's unrecruitable and then the follow-up that she's part of a very small subset of male characters makes it less likely. Rex is still solidly in my POE, particularly with that theory about Casey/Mikal as OG scum.

I wouldn't keep Mag1c in my POE atm, at least not for OG scum. He was character confirmed last DP, so he can't be Kyuubey. He's either the recruit or he's town.

Anyway, I said I'd claim if anyone else pushed for it, and I will: I'm Homura Akemi and I'm Ascetic. The justification is that I was isolated from others due to being bedridden for half a year and that I don't trust others.

His townread on you makes me question your behavior, nor have I called you out on your behavior at all.

I miswrote the first part of this sentence. His townread on you doesn’t make me question your behavior.

Mod confirmed

I visit the person whose action you redirect, and the person I redirect the action onto

Alright, so that comports with Mikal's result.

Honestly, I have a bit of a growing suspicion with whiteflame. He said he didn't just assume what he meant in that post and isn't thinking much of it. I also think he hasn't put enough pressure on Kohai for him "hard town reading" me versus like he normally does and what he did to me. I honestly think if I was in the scenario Kohai was in and I didn't claim everything that I did, I would've been put on a spit. Almost like he is protecting him but drawing enough distance away

I've said that I think the focus of this DP should be on finding whoever is OG scum. I've acknowledged that Kohai could be the recruit, I don't think he is OG. He's already given his claim at this point, so if I'm pressing him at this point, it's because I'd be seeking a lynch. If we've given up on pursuing OG this DP, then I can see reason enough to do so, I'm just not there yet.

Asked just now

Cool, have to see how that works out.

First off you misread the entire post. The goal was to ultimately test Casey out. If they were a protective, they would protect Magic, who was clear NP1 target in any game based on Dp1. If there was no NK (like there was), the ideal state was to confirm that Casey did a heal. Obviously that didn't work

What I'm trying to understand is the decision to target Mag1c, and you gave several competing explanations in that post. Again, this is what you said:

I wanted to see if Magic had something happen to him in terms of a roleblock / action fail / etc. I also thought that if Casey had an investigative role and they see something happen, it can be redirected onto who I thought would be the Nk target after a DP that ends in a no lynch. Worst case scenario, Magic is dead and FoS on Casey/Mikal heightens

If your goal was to redirect Casey because you thought they'd protect Mag1c, fine, but that's not what you said here. You said you thought Casey could have had an investigative role and that, if they were scum, they might RB Mag1c through the redirect. That's what I'm reading.

For investigative, it was too also ensure no fake results were given if they were lying.

Alright, at least you'd know that Casey targeted Mag1c in that instance.

The worst case scenario was that the NK went through on Magic and at most, the FoS is on Mikal. It's not hard logic to process

I think when you're combining a lot of thoughts on how you go about it into a single paragraph and say they were all individual ideas you'd had, it makes it a lot harder to parse.

And why aren't you questioning Kohai more on his hard town read on me if you are so questionable on my behavior?

I've mentioned it multiple times to him, it's been a consistent point I haven't understood in his reads. His townread on you makes me question your behavior, nor have I called you out on your behavior at all. I just couldn't understand your logic in selecting Mag1c. Now that you've separated the ideas out, it makes more sense.

He did start by saying your target was not visited by someone other than yourself.

and then correct it.

that means magic was visited by someone if super is telling the truth and pie was likely not given his first response.

So, to clarify, this wasn't a straight up Motion Detector, which would tell you if there is any movement, but a role that can detect if someone visits your target. You said it was by someone other than you. Were you informed that there was just one person? And that does seem to suggest that Mag1c was not visited, seems like a mod error gave you a little extra info.

So I'll claim at this point...

My role is a 2x Redirector. It is definitely a bit fishy, and honestly, this may even be SOP depending on your perspective. Last night, I chose Casey / Mikal, for any action items to be redirected on Magic. This was for 2 reasons

I wanted to see if Magic had something happen to him in terms of a roleblock / action fail / etc. I also thought that if Casey had an investigative role and they see something happen, it can be redirected onto who I thought would be the Nk target after a DP that ends in a no lynch. Worst case scenario, Magic is dead and FoS on Casey/Mikal heightens

If Casey was potentially town and a NK didn't happen (like I see now), it would give a lot of cred too Casey and we can move on. Obviously with the recruiting and such, this makes it different. It also makes it interesting that Magic had only 1 other person visit them as well so curious to see what happens

Alright, so, let me see if I have this straight:

You redirected Casey/Mikal onto Mag1c. I'm not understanding the logic there. You apparently believed Mag1c had a PR since you were looking for some effect from him, and/or you thought Mag1c would be the NK target... but you also believed that Casey could have been investigative and wanted to redirect them to Mag1c to see if that would get results from what you presumed would be a dead target? Sincerely trying to follow the logic of the selection here.

If we assume this is what happened, then yes, we should square away what information this gives us. Casey/Mikal got information that their target was visited by someone else. You should ask if your redirect would have functioned as a visit to Mag1c.

So I was under the impression that Kohai had gone back in and retracted the offer, so he had declined to begin with, which is why I didn’t include his name.

His reaction was ya okay, I don’t really care about Supa, but REF and Mharman could be scum. He went along with it even though he could’ve argued “but I accepted too.”

Looking back at each post, I think you've made a fair point. He's been inconsistent and sussing people for actions he apparently took as well, even if he regretted the choice. I still don't get why he sees Vader so strongly as town. At minimum, his reads are all over the place and he's deflecting on his own behavior.

I’ll take another look at the points you both have made against Kohai for my main reads post later.

I would really like you to go first esp since you're my top sr and I already claimed

Like I said, if we can get any kind of agreement on character claiming, I’m good with going first.

Honestly I think we've gotten as far as we would get in this day phase. People need to start claiming character so we can get somewhere.

Been saying for a while that I'm fine with character claiming if that's what we decide to do. I'll volunteer to go first, but we have to have enough people onboard for how we're going about it.

This is what's bothering me the most about this setup. How tf did everyone get a contract request? This setup is already extremely bastard by my standards and everyone knows how much I hate bastard games unless they're announced as such at the beginning

It does track for the character at least - Kyuubey's not super selective about who he targets - but yeah, the decision to create a mechanic where you try to recruit everyone simultaneously is beyond me. There may be something more to it, I just have no idea what.

I got a message stating that I had an opportunity to sign a contract and unlock a previously hidden ability. I initially accepted it not thinking twice however when I read up on the character I realized this was probably an alignment changing role. I attempted to back out and was told it was too late; however that point was moot because the contract failed to go through.

Yeah, this seems consistent to me.

I’d much rather prefer Mikal to at clarify the type of role he is. If he can at least do that then I will be satisfied and explain what I was trying to say

Fair. Glad we've got extra time for him to get on and clarify.

I also want to point this out I can be totally wrong. With this many affil changing actions, and then with the 50/50 of success and failure. I would not be shocked if scum potentially had NO killing roles. Because if it’s a 50/50, and 1/2 the people said yes to the recruit, the game is over. Extremely bastard but I am not ruling that out

Wouldn't be a first to have a game where the recruitment mechanic was a substitute for an NK. As for the success/failure rate, I agree it would be pretty bastard for there to be so many possible recruits. Don't think Thoth is running that.

There's nothing about a hidden ability in my role card. If you need to accept Kyubey's offer to get one, I guess that makes sense.

Thoth won't tell me definitively for whatever reason, but my guess is I'm not recruitable because I'm a boy. The creepy rabbit only seems interested in luring young women into questionable life choices.

That does track with Kyuubey's efforts, yes. Not a lot of characters who are boys in this series, so that locks you into one of a couple pretty solidly.

It's because my theory mostly hinges on Kohai's behavior (as Casey/Mikal has been pretty inactive), and that Kohai himself is a spent force and keeping him around doesn't really have utility to town, while Mikal has some sort of role that he's hinted at. I'm not ruling out Kohai as recruiter, I just think his behavior is very off and that it fits more to a 'recruited' framework. Also, we have two days of behavior for the recruit as well - I've found recruits to be easier to spot because there are behavioral discrepancies. If they were scum-reading the recruiter, they will need to pivot. They may need to shift FOS onto the people that scum now want to eliminate. It can look like a lot of post hoc rationalization which clashes with their DP1 analysis. The recruiter has known that they are scum the whole game and so can play much more consistently.

Just eliminating Kohai because he doesn't have an active role to use seems excessive. I also don't believe Kohai is likely to be the recruiter, but that'll be a subject for my longer post later. It's possible he was recruited, and that much I'm still considering, but again I don't think the recruit should be our focus in this DP.

Part of the reason for that is that I disagree we'll see much in the way of behavioral discrepancies this DP. The recruit is relatively safe in their claim at this point. The only possibility is that they could have used some night action that gave them away, and given that no one has spoken up about that, I doubt we can garner that kind of information this DP. Changes in behavior should be noted, but they're unlikely to be dramatic.

Alright, taking a break here. I'll address any responses before I leave work and post a reads list before the end of the day.

I've been trawling through the last DP and this one looking for shifts in reads, as that's usually the biggest sign of a recruit, and can even point to the recruiter. I've developed a bit of theory: Casey/Mikal was the recruiter. They recruited Kohai.

Yeah... I really don't get Casey/Mikal as the recruiter. I'll detail more thoughts about this later, but I saw that you posted later about how the role could have been activated automatically. Setting aside that I think Casey would have to have said something, Mikal would have also had to step up and make some decisions upon coming in, otherwise Thoth would also have had to decide who got recruited. Seems like a lot of mod intervention.

Also, I just don't get going after the recruitment target this DP. We have two DPs worth of behavior to go off of for the recruiter, and just this one for the recruited.

apparently he didn’t know about the hidden mechanic, and it was revealed to him NP1

we can’t really the fact that he didn’t warn us against him… but it’s very convenient he learned of his hidden ability on the night

Yeah, that at least explains why he didn't out it, though I believe Thoth said something about how there would be mention of people having a hidden ability in their PMs. That's part of the reason I said early last DP that I didn't have any mention of one.

Back to Kohai: Having no justification is crazy. Thoth can also be weird, but a bluff from Kohai is far from impossible.

Yeah, this stood out to me, too. It doesn't really fit the character in any way I can think of. I think he'd give at least some justification as scum, but it's hard to know what would even work in this instance.

why can’t scum just be lying about rejecting?

I don't think we should take anyone at their word on this, though I think everyone's reasoning for their choice has been intriguing.

#79 and #83- From Pie. I see the investigation method and the point about Kohai being made. This is something I will say I like from Pie.

He's come off as pretty solid so far. I mistook that last DP for being townie, so I'm hesitant to put much stock in it.

“busy with work” hmm. Feels like a dick move to say, but I swear you’re busier when scum

Can't say I'm reading into that too much. NAI to me.

Another thing… I have a theory that mafia may have learned my role the second my character was outed, as part of the anticlaim.

I think we can assume that having your character claim was a boon to scum given there was some anti-claim.

I'd also like the Vader/Mikal situation to be sorted out. Seems you've already tagged them, so I'll wait to see what comes of it.

It was a hidden ability. I did not know that voting for me had a chance of having character revealed

Ah, that makes sense. Glad we didn't test it more at least.

An emissary per the MU is usually a role that starts with information about a person who is town aligned. I don’t see any role that quite matches up with knowing slanting about the setup so I guess that’s why I was called an emissary.

Seems more like an "Informed" role than an Emissary. Also, just a little weird for the character since she's largely kept in the dark on the whole magical girl thing.

Fair. I do admit that I have been tunneling wf a bit hard.

Like I said last DP, I'd be surprised if people weren't sussing me.

From Kohai. Jumping at this is so utterly stupid that I think mafiosos should know not to. Again with the extreme ignorance

The tunneling and his jumping to conclusions like the ones you point out are part of what make me townread him, but they're hard to square against some of the choices he's made this DP.

Still don’t understand the whole Vader is lock town thing from Kohai

This part I don't get, either. Something Kohai should clarify.

Good question

I would have to think about that more tonight when im home so I can’t give you an answer

Fair enough. I think we should be focused on the likely recruiter rather than who they recruited this DP.

I still don’t understand where you’re getting the whole “two different question” thing from.

Yeah, I don't get this either.

Hitomi isn’t a magical girl, and upon reading the wiki, was never offered a contract from Kyubey.

There is a defense here from a math standpoint: If we believe Kyubey and Walpergisnacht are in the game, along with all five magical girls, there still needs to be one more character, such as Hitomi. And that’s with a few assumptions in place, when there could be more. Point being, it is possible theme accuracy was sacrificed for game mechanics. Idk what role Hitomi could gain, though, and it’s not a guarantee.

Thst’s not what an emissary usually is. This isn’t Thoth’s original mafia community though. It’s plausible.

The other thing here: No warning to town about voting you last DP? Why?

Yeah, I flagged that, too. There are five magical girls in the series, so given an 8-player game with Kyuubey as known scum (there's a good chance Walpurgis is here, but I'll set that aside for now), there must be 2 characters who are not a magical girl. It's not discussed within the show, but I know there is artwork of Hitomi as a magical girl, so I mainly question whether she would be recruitable at all. Learning of the anti-claim mechanic is certainly a shift from the norm for his role. The decision to avoid mentioning the voting mechanic could have been a lot bigger of a problem if more people had voted him, though I think that was his attempt to gauge other peoples' behavior. Risky move.

This just seems way too specific, the info given, the anti claim, and the reveal of a hidden ability. It feels made up.

I think his behavior DP1 doesn't square with him being scum, particularly if he has this hidden ability. You would think as scum, he would have used the opportunity to reveal more claims. I could see some of this being used to take advantage of that play as a recruit in this DP, but what we've had apparently confirmed just seems like a lot to give Kyuubey on top of the mass recruit.

Going to log off for now but I have some thoughts about some of the info. I think there is a clear distinction between the two questions asked. One direction recruitment and one that was a hidden ability that we have 0 idea what it was for. 50% said yes and 50% said no but each to different questions that they were asked.

See, I'm not clear on this. Have we established that people got different messages? Because the only one I've heard that was distinct was Wryly's, and that's because she was unrecruitable. Kohai seems to be townreading you for some reason relating to the hidden ability in the message, but I don't think it's been clarified that he received a different message. If we need to clear this up, all my message said was that Kyubey was inviting me to make a contract, and that doing so would unlock a hidden ability. It did not directly state "you will be recruited to the scum team," though I figured that was a given.

I am actually a bit more sus of Pie this DP because of this bold “denial” claim. Realistically, there is no reason to deny a recruitment unless you know there isn’t going to be a NK in the night, and we had no way of guaranteeing that. Shit if I got offered to be recruited, and it would’ve AT THE MINIMUM by a 5v2 game, that’s just 2 DP’s to live on. Saying it’s scummy to deny that is IMO scummy to suggest because if you are solely thinking about winning a game, I think the optimal play is to accept. Not even to mention that THE ACTION failed.

I don't get this. I get that there could have been a perceived benefit to joining the scum team based on a numbers game, but Pie was scum just last game. Making a decision not to be scum this game and try to solve instead isn't outlandish, even if he thought he could win as scum.

Anyways, right now I don’t really have any strong reads. Just a lot of FoS with some slight town reads. I do think Pie bumps up the list a bit with this.

I also kinda town read Kohai. Pretty clear there meta is a bit TMI to lead the game and I think him boldly claiming an action the first posts makes me think he’s town. Unless you think he’s making a 200 IQ play as scum but I’m not so sure

I townread Kohai for different reasons, but I'll come back to that.

Right now I think my Poe is Pie, WF, Rex, and Mikal and that’s literally from POE that can simply change. In fact, if Mikal claims something then I will actually move Mikal into my town pile but I don’t want to force a claim onto him

I'd like to see this broken down a little more. Are these all potential OG scum or just potential scum at all? Because I can see different cases for each based on which category they slot into.

I'm working on a longer post of my thoughts, which I should be able to get up later this afternoon, but I'm trying to play catch-up in the interim. I'll address what was posted since last night and get back to going back through the last DP.

I'm going to call it a night here, can't seem to focus on reading through these last few posts - clearly, a lack of sleep the last few nights is catching up with me. I'm fine switching back to 72 hours since we have more substantive material to cover and I want to make sure Mikal in particular gets more opportunity to post.

It's TMI, a little defensive.

He says he had a feeling that it changed alignment, accepted it anyway, retracted that for unclear reasons, still was told the contract would have failed, then had the mod confirm that it was an alignment changing role. That's a weird sequence and a lot of mod confirmation.