Alright, I see no reason to drag this out. I still cannot make much sense of REF’s role claim or the aftermath of said claim. I don’t love that both Pie and Mikal are on this wagon too since they’re both pretty likely to be his partner, but we’ll cross that bridge next DP.
VTL REF
I’m going to hop back on in an hour or two and make my decision, going to be busy for a bit with work.
I dont have time to read through all these pages
Why are you sussing Pie?
It’s mainly a balancing act based on how I think he’d try to avoid claiming his role while seeking a massclaim. It’s more a read of what I think he’d do as town (keep his Martyr in his back pocket and try to invite the NK one more time), though he’s right that that’s a WIFOM argument. At this point, I’m still leaning toward the REF lynch.
Mass claiming together is always better. It works in our live games all the time. And let’s say, I waited, then the opposite argument would be used against me. Pie waited till the end to claim and therefore his role is fake. You can paint any picture you want with WIFOM.
Yeah, I don't want to rely too much on this type of thinking. I recognize it's WIFOM.
The more I keep thinking on this, the less sure I am between you two in particular. The back-and-forth seems authentic, so I can't see a world in which you two are scum together, but I can't write either of you off. I've already stated my concerns with REF, so I want to dig a little deeper into Pie.
I believe the Martyr claim is real, so the main question is whether Pie was recruited. I still think the effort to get a massclaim makes sense from a town perspective, since it clearly got a great deal of conversation moving and has given us more insight into behavior in the process. What's leaving me a little off kilter about him is how his role fits into that decision. There was clearly value to not revealing his Martyr role as town. I disagree with REF that he should have faked his claim as town (the risk of just being lynched as a result was substantial and too many of those types of efforts fall apart), but I'm surprised that he didn't try to garner everyone's claims first before yielding his own. Considering how many of our past games have involved Pie trying to push back on claiming until everyone else had claimed, this does stand out. Granted, the Yakuza flip changed things and the massclaim push itself is different, and granted, it's something I would scumread from most anyone else if they were withholding their claim to see how things shake out. Pie usually tries to hold off as much as possible, though, and this particular role would only afford him more reason to do so.
I could see going either way on this. I think REF's claim still stands out, particularly with the changes he made after claiming, but I can see a basis for Pie as well. It's going to be a busy afternoon, but I'll be done with work before the deadline so I'll make a decision beforehand.
Can't say I agree with your reasoning. I don't have much insight into REF's scum play, but there's a reason he got found out a couple of games back. I don't think he'd have good reason to fuck up this claim as town, particularly given how long he had to get his claim in order. As for Pie, he's been a little more tentative this game, but that makes sense given the Yakuza flip. I would be more surprised if he was just as aggressive as usual.
I just don't agree that supporting this massclaim was anti-town, especially given how little progress we were making in the lead-up to it. I strongly oppose massclaiming in the vast majority of instances, but the Yakuza flip changed that calculus for this DP and not just because of my role. We needed to gain what insight we could on characters and roles to focus attention on behavior. That comes at the cost of scum knowing that information as well, but I still think it's better than lynching with so little information or just randomly seeking claims in a game that's upended our reads coming off of last DP.
whiteflame is high on my list of who I would've chosen to convert as scum. He could have just presented the information from Vader accurately for town cred. behavior seems townie but I doubt I'll get useful behavior reads on experienced players, so I really hate how behavior-oriented this game is
I'm flattered. I think I would have had at least some reason to modify the information if I was scum, if only to make it easier to sus someone who's an outlier - it's not like I gain any towncred for giving an accurate accounting of what Luna sent me, since I'm the only one who received it. And yeah, this game is pretty complex on the behavioral level given the Yakuza flip. It's definitely not just you struggling with reading behavior this DP.
Remind me of your justification again?
David 8 faked his death and took Walter One's place on the crew. There's more background, but this is all I see that's relevant to the role. I haven't seen Alien: Covenant and I thought David 8 bit it at the end of Prometheus, but I guess he fooled me too.
So, instead of pointing to individual messages, I'm just going to respond to Mikal's request just after I hopped off and put people in order from towniest to scummiest.
Vader - In part, this is because I don't think Vader gets recruited NP1. I just don't buy that scum would select him of all people, someone who was almost entirely absent DP1 and has generally struggled to be invested as scum in the past. It's not a 0% chance, but I'd say odds are very low that he's a scum Informant or some other similar role, so odds are that he's unlikely to either have been recruited or been a part of the initial scum team.
Wryly - Not too dissimilar from Vader. I think Wryly is one of the least likely players to have been recruited. I thought Wryly did very well last game at putting the pieces together and arguing in her defense, but she's still relatively new and it would be a big gamble to go in on a newer player for the swap. Scum Tracker is more plausible and would be a pretty ballsy fake claim to give during that massclaim (not that it hasn't worked before), so either Wryly was always scum (which hasn't shown up in her behavior so far) or she's town. I'm inclined towards the latter.
David - David is more of a reverse situation. I don't think there's much of any chance that David was scum from the start, don't think he draws attention to himself with that heads up with Thoth in DP1. So that leaves only the possibility of his having been recruited and his case is one where I would absolutely understand why scum would pick him given his role. David also has enough experience that picking him would make sense. Still, behaviorally, I just don't buy it. His responses to those suggestions all come off as pretty townie, so my opinion of him hasn't shifted much from last DP.
iLikePie5 - The Martyr claim is bugging me a bit. I did end up looking back at the Indian Politicians game he modded on DART and I remembered correctly that he gave me a very similarly described Martyr (it negated kills on the subsequent night), but if I'm right about how he's describing it here, it would just skip the next NP entirely if he's NK'd. I believe that he was biding the NK from his later posts last DP and he gave away that he was a passive role in discussion with Mikal earlier this DP. Still a possible fake claim, but the push for massclaims seemed like a genuine effort to scumhunt and I think he's been forthcoming since.
Mikal - Don't get why he's got David as most likely scum behind REF (just because of the role I guess? Don't see much analysis there), and his role is just something I've never seen before. It does kind of fit for the Engineers, but it's a weird sort of randomized JOAT role that stands out. He did seem to soft the Motivator early this DP with his back-and-forth with Pie, so it's more probable he was recruited if he is scum.
RexFavilla - I'm just having the hardest time with REF's role. The more I keep reading back through these exchanges, the more it looks like it's changing on the fly, going from an "odd sort of role cop" that he can only use on even nights to a character cop (first time seeing that) with the same even night stipulation... but it's also not really a character cop, more like he can get information from Luna about whether a given character is in the game. That does seem doubly strange with the Yakuza flip, since it means he only has one target he can choose who would be at all likely to fake claim their character. I can understand making a mistake in conveying a role, but we've been sitting waiting for full claims and it's weird that REF didn't have his ducks in a row. It's not confirmable, either, making it an outlier.
Alright, leaving it there for the night. Will be back on to discuss in the morning.
Alright, at least we got to celebrate a chunk of the day. I'll catch up and then I'm calling it a night.
And now I’m going before my time on my phone becomes a problem.
I do love shower thoughts, though this one doesn’t work. I can acquire a role during the NP from a dead townie. I’ll have to ask how that would work if it’s a passive role, but if it’s active, I either use it or lose it.
Just checked with Luna on this. I can take on a passive role. If I do, it lasts for the following DP.
I’m not staying on much longer myself, taking my wife out to dinner shortly. I’ll give these claims some thought and hopefully post again later tonight.
Shower thought: Whiteflame is extremely dangerous, possibly far more dangerous than I am. If whiteflame is scum, either original or recruited, they could obtain my vengeful status and use it the next day phase if they are lynched!
I do love shower thoughts, though this one doesn’t work. I can acquire a role during the NP from a dead townie. I’ll have to ask how that would work if it’s a passive role, but if it’s active, I either use it or lose it.
NP1 I tracked Kohai. I had lingering questions about the “two Xenomorphs” thing and I needed to know if the Vengeful role was true as it seemed hella swingy. Kohai visited no one, consistent with Vengeful. Then I read DP2 and realized it didn't matter because he could be scum now anyway. My results only really contraindicate that he was the original scum, unless he waived his power or had a passive scum role (if that's even a thing).
I buy that Wendy would be a Tracker from what I read, kind of assumed a protective role but it fits too. This result does strongly suggest that at least David didn’t start out as scum (could be a Ninja, but I doubt it). I don’t believe he was converted, at least not based on what I’ve seen from him this DP.
This seems akin to the Martyr role you gave me in that Indian Politicians game a while back. Am I remembering that correctly?
I’ll echo Pie, I’d like the justification. Unusual for town to have a role cop.
Why did you think that scum would NK David?
Mainly because he’d be townread and there was a non-zero risk that lynching him in some future DP could backfire on them. That combined with my lack of any other solid reads meant it was a choice between using it pretty randomly and hoping or using it on David.
I’m David 8. Set out to make “the perfect Organism” using black goo, faked my own death, took Walter One’s place along with his role as the crew’s AI unit.
I’m the Scavenger. If I target a dead townie, I can inherit their role for that night and can use it. I picked Thoth, used his Apportioner on David, as I was pretty certain he was town coming off of the last DP (he wouldn’t put himself in a 1v1 situation with Thoth if he was scum).
I'll be on for that. Heading out, got everything typed up so I can post it together at 4 (5 my time).
If we don’t get this done this time. I’m done trying this. Low-key frustrating to time this as we are just sitting around and praying everyone pops on. Would rather just pick someone and pray before we keep doing this. It’s titling me.
Amen to that. I'll stay at work for now in the hopes we can make this happen, but we're getting close to the end of the day.
Just going to sit here and refresh the page every few minutes.
Said I was available before your post.
I'm here, ready to post whenever.
I'm here and checking in. Like I said, things will get dicey in the evening if we're trying to do this all at once.
Why can’t Thoth replace Supa then? That’s the easier option. I understood Luna’s comment to mean there’s some mechanic out there that impacts it in someway, which explains why Thoth couldn’t do it either.
Yeah, that's a good point. For some reason, I assumed it would only be Casey replacing and didn't consider Thoth. Not sure what prevents one of them from subbing in, but it doesn't give Vader the cover I believed it did.
Say someone town confirms themselves later in the game. Or there is a town confirm role. The potential to use that and make town think they could not be town confirmed is way heavier when their are reads or analysis on the table instead of directly after a dp that accomplished nothing.
I can see the value in waiting, but there's clearly a lot of risk to waiting as well, particularly with a player who was largely inactive during the last DP and would almost certainly have been the center of attention this DP.
We need to get something going
VTL Whiteflame
Via POE
I don't know what the point of this is. I've already offered to claim whenever we're doing the massclaim. If we have to draw straws, I've agreed to that as well. Regardless, you'll get my claim.
Just realized supa is town confirmed.
Can you replace Vader if he doesn’t show up in like 5 hours. Time delay is a stupid tactic
Not sure with who, because it was hard enough to hit 9 players as is, and for reasons I cannot discuss I cannot replace dead players into this game. I will ping him again though.
why would Luna not be able to replace a dead mafia with an innactive mafia. Casey dies and there is 2 mafia after the recruit. There is 0 reason mafia can’t replace mafia. Mafia can’t replace town because they would know who mafia is
supa is town confirmed.
That does strongly suggest that Vader is town. Might be something else in the setup that stands in the way of Casey returning to the game, but it's plausible.
