whiteflame

Current Game:

Casey Risk - Deltarune Mafia

Sign-ups:

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In the Hopper:

iLikePie5 

Savant 

Lunatic

AnonymousIcon

RationalTheist 

REF - Suikoden Mafia

Thoth

Whiteflame - Frieren Mafia

On Hold:

Wylted - Lulsec

 0

…alright then, guess I won’t have time to interrogate this. Oh well, let’s see how this plays out. Likely dead this NP, so good luck guys.

I don’t love a lot of your responses, but it’s also not reason enough to execute this lynch and I’ll need to reread your responses and address them. I’d rather not have you at L-1 until I get there (I’ve got a busy enough morning as it is), so:

Unvote

I’ll say for now that I’m still very much torn between Mikal and Thoth here. The lack of other claimed protective roles gives Thoth some cover for that claim, but a triggerable self-protective role (why is this becoming a thing? Why aren’t people just BP?) rubs me the wrong way, so it feels off. The character seems like a bit of an outlier too, at least compared with the flip we have and my character. Going to have to chew on that.

Any particular reason why you have been evasive about providing your role claim? You had three votes on you when you last posted.

Ultimately I don’t think Thoth is scum here. His push on Whiteflame is who almost the most agreed upon townie right now seems counter intuitive for a mafia stratagem, which leads me to believe that the read while outlandish in so many regards, is probably legitimate.

I can't write off Thoth. It's a bold move to push me and RT as a scum team, but it's also entirely believable if he's in the Caroler result and he wants to push the lynch anywhere else. Making town disbelieve the result is a reasonable tactic, especially when he knows he will likely be on the chopping block regardless and wants to push that off a DP or two.

I'm not sure who I'm favoring as a lynch between Mikal and Thoth, but they both rub me the wrong way. Really doesn't help that, despite Thoth saying he was fine with claiming, he's been at 3 votes for a while and has refused to claim or even explain why he wont.

I think wf is town. The reason I wanted to test rt was because if he is scum and we believe him, the game is over

I don't think we stand to gain much from a test. I'd still like to know why RT believed his role might not be active anymore, but volunteering that that might be the case isn't what I'd call scummy TMI.

also my role is actually powerful. It confirms a role. You know how many games cop has been a fc or mafia can fake claim results. It allows us to mostly town lock someone unless you assume I and that person are scum

It confirms an investigative role if it is used. Otherwise, it only confirms that it wasn't used or that the person who used it didn't receive a result, e.g. me. It can test scum fake claims if and only if scum claim that they received a result and you target them, or if they receive a result (e.g. Role Cop) and then claim not to have that role. That's useful, but I wouldn't characterize it as powerful since that information is heavily limited.

past that because it’s not a dreamer and a caroler. I’m assuming partial balance because I can results if I target the person who is caroled ( if I targeted rt and not wf)

I can see how it slots into the game like I said in my read of you, though just because it's potentially good mechanical balance doesn't mean it's a given that your role is here.

im surprised everyone keeps looking at my way when I have explained my logic multiple times. I knew wf didn’t get results and wanted to lock him into something so he could not backtrack or alter. All he said was “when did I say I had results”. If forced to claim and he was scum there is a chance he could have tried to fabricate something and I had the ability to cc.

Not going to respond to everything you said, at least not until I have more time to sit down with it, but I did say twice that I didn't have a result before I was pushed to claim. Look at post 83 and 97.

Since both of you have brought this up now, I believe it would be a big mistake to lynch RT, especially if the goal is just to verify his result. By using a lynch to verify his result, you also limit your chances to find scum among those three, which is especially strange if you are among those three (looking at you, Thoth - this should be a coin flip for you if you have any reason to believe RT received this trio of names and are Town).

The only scenario where you should be seeking a lynch on RT is if you believe we're both scum, as Thoth clearly does.

I also think whiteflame saying he's never heard of a role that gives someone else a dreamer effect, and later claiming that role, seems wrong, like he and RT are working together to make this up and there was a miscommunication in mafia chat. (Can mafia talk to each other during the day here?) Yeah, I know it can be okay to lie as town and then go back on it later, but still.

I think you're making a very simple situation super complicated to paint us as scum. Why would I, the claimed Caroler, state that I hadn't heard of the role? Because that makes scum less likely to mark me as the Caroler. Sadly, it also made RT less likely to mark me that way. If you think I can pull of this level of frustration as part of a faked back-and-forth with RT, you give me far too much credit.

I am hypothesizing that RT and whiteflame are both scum and they made up the caroler to trick us into lynching me, Shining, and Mikal, after which they would have parity. Assuming exactly one death per phase, scum needs us to mislynch on three day phases, including this one, to get parity, and that's what a fake Caroler claim could do. After the first two fail, they can say we just need to get the third one, town follows it, shah mat. It also pressures those three into claiming, which might interact with some anti-claim mechanic we can't see. It's too perfect for scum. I know it's brazen, but what does it matter? If I'm right and their plan works, we'll have no chance to punish their brazenness.

So I tied myself directly to my scum partner in the most brazen way possible with a role that scum would either have to continuously RB or otherwise kill off to stop, making my survival in subsequent NPs automatically pretty sus? Sure, why not?

Another piece of evidence: I'm not saying it's impossible, but it's slightly sus to me that whiteflame's 'research' to find the Caroler role (post 20) apparently only took a few minutes based on post timestamps.

...Excuse me? Since when does searching the role on Mafia Universe take any more than a few minutes? Also, and I'm surprised I have to point this out again, I already knew I was the Caroler at this point. That research was already in hand before the start of the DP, so of course it wouldn't take substantial time.

Would anyone agree that, out of the 7 people alive today who are not RT and whiteflame, Shining, Mikal, and I were the most sus, or at least one of the most sus groups of three players you could pick? If so, that's strong Bayesian evidence that they picked three players whom they knew would all sound like plausible POE candidates. I know I'm town and that some side-eyes were cast at me during day 1. I also think they have recently pressured me the hardest out of the three supposed caroler names because they realized that I am picking things up too quickly for their liking and were afraid I would catch onto them.

The first part of this is entirely WIFOM, and the second part doesn't track with what has happened this DP. Both Shining and Mikal were pressured before you, and the only reason Shining got off the hook is because attention was drawn to me in large part by the person you believe is my apparent scum partner. Also, way to toot your own horn at the end there.

One more thing. How common is Caroler? Have any of you seen that role before in any game you've played? The fact whiteflame either did or pretended to do research to find an article about it tells me it's not a well-known role. Does Casey tend to use obscure roles? If Caroler is rarer than the roles Casey tends to put in his games, that tips the scales further against RT and whiteflame.

Literally my first time seeing this role in a game. This is modpsych, but yeah, Casey does use a variety of roles in their games, including obscure ones.

Others can pick up on more subtle cues that may be more telling.

(Post 60) Please, for Lord's sake, flip scum so I can feel vindicated in catching the potential irony here.

I won't, so... have fun with not being vindicated I guess?

Who started the VTNL wagon on day 1? Whiteflame. That led to 9 players left today. Mislynch today, we start tomorrow with 7. Mislynch again, we start DP4 with 5, by which time scum has not reached parity.

False. Mikal started the VTNL wagon (see post #175).

Let's say we had voted someone out day 1. Then we would have 8 today. Mislynch, 6 left at start of DP3. Mislynch again, you go down to 5 and someone dies in the night to reach parity.

Considering these numbers, VTNLing could have seemed like the right call because mislynching on day 1 would have cost us a day.

However, if you were scum and expected town to waste days 2, 3, and 4 anyway, then VTNLing would only set you back by a day you did not need, while also denying the town valuable information and possibly saving a scum or town-harmful neutral. I think whiteflame and/or RT came up with the fake caroler claim plot and crunched the numbers, and then whiteflame became the wagoneer because he was the more trusted of the two.

Considering these numbers, VTNLing could have seemed like the right call because mislynching on day 1 would have cost us a day.

However, if you were scum and expected town to waste days 2, 3, and 4 anyway, then VTNLing would only set you back by a day you did not need, while also denying the town valuable information and possibly saving a scum or town-harmful neutral. I think whiteflame and/or RT came up with the fake caroler claim plot and crunched the numbers, and then whiteflame became the wagoneer because he was the more trusted of the two.

So... you're arguing that the lack of a lynch flip denied town valuable information that outweighs the gain of an extra DP? I mean, if that's your view, you're welcome to it, but I don't agree. I think losing another player would have been more damaging, especially since we were far more likely to lynch town given that no one was on the same page about a lynch wagon.

I also just don't get how you come up with scenarios like this, that we somehow "crunched the numbers" and determined that there was value in denying ourselves information to simultaneously deny town a flip that would have put them one step closer to MYLO. It's another instance of WIFOM, but it would be some baffling math on our parts to conclude that that's the best possible outcome from DP1.

Interesting town read. I guess my question is what was his goal really in pushing you? He hasn't really made it understood why he was pushing you when you had already specifically told him you didn't get a result. The whole circumstances around his push on you didn't make a ton of sense, and felt almost like he thought he could catch you in something scummy for mislynch potential, and it seemed at this point he was confident enough in his position that he didn't think there would be major back lash for doing it. I just don't understand what as town he was trying to accomplish, and again, it is really weird to me that the only time I have ever seen this role talked about or discussed let alone used was when me and mikal talked about fake claiming this in your biology game.

I'm still not entirely sure. It's strange to me that he didn't push me himself, at least not with a vote. He said over and over that he wanted my role, but I still don't really get the "why" of it, since i had told him I didn't get a result. If he was scum and doing this, he was relying on others to pressure it, which is odd for scum. Doesn't really fit Mikal's scum MO to set up misinformation and then not make a bigger racket about it.

As for his mentioning this role in that game, that's a fair point I hadn't really considered. It does stand as odd that he mentioned it there and it's appeared here as well. I think you pointed out as well that it's odd for him to claim it's a strong investigative role. It's useful in a distinctive way, but it's not strong. I can't tell if that's just weird defense because Mikal isn't that invested in this game or if it's part of an effort to derail the lynch, though it's odd regardless.

I'll rethink the read.

In regards to rex, the fact that he hasn't even mentioned this kind of makes me scratch my head. If he never saw me make that post for example its probably extra townie, but now I am wondering if he's scum and acknowledged it and is playing along.

I will say what happened favors him being town still, but its not out of the question he is scum.

Appreciate you clarifying a bit. I'm between Rex and Ultra for a second scum outside of the three RT received, though neither of them are my focus this DP for obvious reasons.

Shining - Largely neutral, maybe very slight town. That early willingness to claim was definitely a factor, though even if he was scum, he'd likely have been forced into it. Maybe he just recognized that it was inevitable if he pushed back. It's WIFOM, I get it, but that initial response from Shining just came off as townie and its the main reason I've put attention on Mikal and Thoth first. Since then, his interactions have been pretty neutral, though I'm reading a bit more into his lack of knowledge about what was going on when he returned for post 139. Don't think scum Shining returns with partial information about what happened like that.

Thoth - By process of elimination, he's most likely to be scum out of these three, though I'll admit I don't have a good read on him. His response to the push for his claim is to say that he's willing to do it (while also undercutting how useful RT's result is) and says his death could "town-confirm others" - not entirely sure what he meant by that. The push on Shining makes sense given his position, he kind of has to regardless of his affiliation. I could see some of this being hedging, but a lot would depend on his claim.

Lunatic - Neutral to slight town lean. He started off this DP with a post saying Rex is likely town, which is a weird choice if he's scum (didn't really understand why RT agreed, but then I figured something role related was going on and got more focused on RT's results). His POE has largely looked like mine throughout, and though we've come down in different places on Mikal, I get where he's coming at that read from and, frankly, if I wasn't psychoanalyzing a lot of Mikal's choices, I might be in the same place.

RexFavilla - Neutral. I feel like every time I try to read Rex behaviorally, I'll always have to temper that read with my experience from previous games with him, since I'd probably scumread him pretty often otherwise. I haven't loved his reads this game, though that tracks with last game where he was town, and he's at least analyzing outcomes of each DP with pretty good detail. None of that really pushes me in either direction, it's just consistent. The townread from Luna is coming from somewhere, and even if I'm not sure where, it's the main reason why I might consider him town.

Ultracrepidarian - Slight scum read. Lack of activity is really hurting Ultra this DP, just so little to go off of and it did not help that he said he was going to post more and just didn't. Last DP, he fished for softclaim ideas early and was one of the early softclaims himself, and popped out some abbreviated reads after saying he'd be absent on a trip (might have just been an attempt to post some activity before he was going on said trip). So partially due to the fishing and partially the weird activity, Ultra's just rubbing me the wrong way. Everything's very minor, but that's part of the problem.

Going to post my townreads first, will need to dig into the rest.

RationalTheist - I'll start with my strongest town read. Role confirmed, didn't move during the NP (read #176 for details), so he's distinctly unlikely to be scum since he couldn't have committed the NK or any other night action. Yeah, Mikal's right that there's some TMI going on, but those are behavioral reads that run contrary to mechanical information that makes him pretty unlikely to be scum.

McDonaldsReal - I understood the push to get a claim from him last DP since he's new to the game, but I'm still largely townreading him. Yeah, it's all behavioral, but I'm seeing a lot of towntells in his responses to being pushed and the pressure on me. He's not locked in, but I just don't see a noob scum operating like this.

Mikal - So I know he's the likely lynch this DP, but I really don't think he's scum. The way this DP played out has left me frustrated on a lot of levels, but if Mikal's goal was to seek my claim for scummy reasons, he did a terrible job of it. I was near certain that he didn't have a Tracking role because if he'd seen me visit RT, he wouldn't have sought my claim. And if he was scum, I don't think he steers clear of VTLing me like he did here. Maybe scum Mikal makes this fake claim and pairs it with an apparently pretty spot on character for the role, but this seems baked into the structure of this game really well. It's a way to get around anti-claim and test those that do claim. I don't think it was used well here (personal bias), but in a game with at least a Follower and a Caroler to yield investigative results, his claim makes a good deal of sense.

Yeah... this has been a rough one.

I won't pretend I'm likely to survive this NP, it's almost certainly not going to happen, so I'll give my thoughts before what seems like a likely lynch of Mikal. While I'm at it, though, I'd really prefer to get another character or role claim before the DP ends. Much as Rex seems to have a problem with it, I don't see it as a substantial risk and I think failing to better inform this lynch is a bigger risk. My vote's on Thoth, though I'd be fine getting a claim from either him or Shining. Doesn't seem like I'm getting much support for that, though, so here we are.

Anyway, I'll give what reads I have, so let's at least hold off ending the DP until then, please.

So despite the fact that it’s likely to only make me more of a target during the NP, I’ll clarify part of why I’m townreading RT. The Caroler role has specific stipulations, namely that my target has to not be “away” when I use it. That’s why I targeted him: he’d already claimed Popular, and unless he was lying as scum, he likely didn’t have a visiting role as well. That, coupled with the fact that he got a result at all (he would not have been informed of it if he was away at the time, I checked) tells me that, at minimum, he wasn’t involved in any visiting night actions during NP1.

That gives him a stronger alibi than anyone else in this game so far, hence I’m less concerned with verifying his Popular role is still active.

Alright, much as I'd prefer to leave this on the backburner (and frankly, I'd still prefer Thoth's claim first), it's clearly drawing some attention away and I'd like to understand what the issue is.

RT, in response to me earlier in this DP when I asked if anyone had become "Fragile," you said:

I have nothing about being fragile; however given that I'm proven to be popular my popular mechanic may have been disabled.

What led you to the conclusion that your role might have been disabled? I get that this was connected to the whole "anti-claim might have resulted in some outcome" discussion, but this really did seem to come out of left field as a possibility.

He tested it. But I’ve seen 1x popular mafia as a way to help them in the past. Popular should only deactivate at mylo lylo

I've seen just straight up Popular mafia. It happened last game. To be fair, I thought it was pretty odd for RT to speculate that his role might have been deactivated somehow, but I'm not scumreading that statement and I don't think re-testing his role is a worthwhile use of our time.

I really don't appreciate WF outting his role. I also don't understand why he wants to test RT again, it seems pretty foolish to me. Ah well. I do think the way you guys tested RT's popular are a little silly.

The one person who should have had the most reason to accept the hints I was giving him kept pushing for me to claim, so I either would have remained a major focus for the rest of this DP and split decisions around my vote or I would have been pushed to claim later, which meant wasting more time either way. I don't like it, either, but I didn't see another avenue.

I didn't say that I wanted to test RT's role again.

I'll talk more in an hour or two when I get back, but for now: did we actually test that popular claim? It said on day 1 that we needed six votes to reach majority. Day 1, post #129, Casey said that McDonalds' vote and immediate unvote brought RT to a high of six votes.

I interpreted that post by Casey to mean that RT was brought to 6 votes, which would have resulted in his lynch if he was not Popular. Unless we have good reason not to believe that, I don't think there's value in testing it again.

I’m the beholder. I get informative information back if I target an information role. I was told

you did not receive information. You implied you were visiting someone, so I wanted to see if you were going to lie and fake claim a result.

Man, if this is real, it's such a frustrating reason to draw attention to me, especially after I said twice that I did not receive a result. I get that your vote wasn't up on me, but getting my claim should not have been necessary to confirm this.

I'll leave it there for now, though.

Unvote

VTL Thoth

You're up.

Frankly, if we're not focused on Mikal, Thoth and Shining for this rest of this DP, I don't even know what we're doing here. I've laid it all out on the table and I have pretty good reason to believe that RT is town despite all this frustration, so I believe the results he received are genuine. If others don't want to use that information for some reason, then you'd better be sussing at least one of us.

So I'd like role claims, starting with Mikal.

VTL Mikal

If Mikal knew that you visited me and that I already revealed my results then it looks like Mikal was trying to PR hunt.

*sigh* and you wonder why I wanted his claim first...

In your role does it say how many wolves are guaranteed to be in the result? Does it say one or at least one?

At least one.

Here's the problem: Assuming you and Mikal are town we now have two outted power roles. if both of you are town one of you is going to die. That's why we need something. If you die we can review your results and make progress.

I feel like I've hinted every way I can to prevent this, and you are literally the person that should be picking up what I'm putting down, so fuck it. I'll embrace the fact that I'm almost certainly dead tonight: I targeted you. I'm the Caroler. Happy? I know I'm not.

Here's an idea: You tell us who you targeted. The person you targeted makes a claim and you can confirm or disprove that.

*sigh* Do I really have to repeat myself? I've now said this multiple times, but I'll say it again: if I say who I visited, it gives away what I am.

In what way would it confirm or disprove something about your target?

Again, if I tell you, I'm giving away my role. Take the hint, man.

How so? Also, is your role / result capable of confirming your target as town?

...if I explained why, this would get super obvious. You either accept what I'm telling you or you're seeking my claim.

No, but it can confirm or disprove something about my target.

Would you at least be willing to say who you visited?

That would be the equivalent of claiming my role.

No, it doesn't. The point here is to try and clear as many people as possible and confirm as many people as town as we can. If we can confirm Mikal is town that narrows down the original POE to two.

I'm strongly learning to Mikal being town.

I have reason to townread him too, but if that's the case, why not focus on either of the two other people in your set of three? By this logic, you've got a 50-50 chance of picking scum out between Thoth and Shining, but you're focused on me because Mikal has some information relevant to what I did last NP.

Still, you're the one who has the most reason to buy that they're in POE at this point, dude, not me. If you think getting my claim is more important than pursuing information you've said you have available to you now, I'll do it, but it's a big mistake.

1. Mikal is in the POE. If I can clear him that brings us down to two.

Why wouldn't you seek his claim first, then?

2. If you are scum and we eliminate you today then that significantly increases odds of winning.

...which entirely defeats the purpose of focusing on the pool of three players you got and expands the number of claims you're seeking to four. Three was already substantial, but expanding on that is even more of a problem with anti-claim mechanics in play.

Did you make an attempt and was role blocked?

I can confirm my night action was successful.