Lunatic

Originally Posted by whiteflame on 10/12/2026 at 11:38 AM (post #54)

Originally Posted by Lunatic on 10/12/2026 at 1:23 PM (post #45)

If I actually get mislynched here I can't even be too mad about it. My history of bussing has caused a lot of paranoia, it was bound to backfire on me at some point. That said, I would actually have been retarded to choose a bus here over just pushing helz towards lynching outside of me and thoth yesterday, when that was almost something we did. I basically doubled down on a bus over a free win is the argument here lol.

I'm considering that as well. I agree, I think there were viable routes to a win last DP if you were scum. It baffled me then and it baffles me now.

I can, however, see reasons why you would make the choice. For one, if you didn't think you had a good role claim for Thoth, he would almost certainly have been lynched anyway if he'd ended up claiming. There was already attention on him for his character claim, so no, Helz was not the sole focus of attention going into DP3. For another, you could have already felt pretty locked into the decision to keep Helz on your side after laying the groundwork by townreading and defending him in the previous DP. Not impossible to pivot from that, but considering his attention was squarely on Kohai and me for much of the DP, I could see the value in pocketing him, even if it meant you'd have to kill him should he pivot to Thoth as he did.

I get the reasoning, but go back to the very start of DP3. Kohai’s first post of the day was “Almost certain it’s wf.” Five alive, three votes to lynch. If I’m scum, me, Thoth and Kohai end the game right there. Nobody had to claim anything, and Thoth could stay “blackmailed” and silent. Free win in the first hour.

Instead I claimed cop and handed you a guilty on my own supposed partner. As scum that’s trading a guaranteed win for a coin flip on DP4. Nobody does that.

On pocketing Helz: if I wanted Helz on my side I’d just agree with him. I wouldn’t need a cop result, and I definitely wouldn’t burn the night kill on the guy I was supposedly pocketing.

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/12/2026 at 11:37 AM (post #53)

Originally Posted by Lunatic on 10/12/2026 at 1:31 PM (post #51)

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/12/2026 at 11:25 AM (post #47)

The Noah kill only makes sense because of their Luna sus.

Kohai, the Noah kill makes way more sense mechanically than as a read thing. Noah claimed a 2x redirector usable on odd nights, which meant N3 was the first night he could act. A redirector can push the NK onto scum or shift it away from its target. That’s the last thing any scum wants live going into the endgame, so he was the obvious kill no matter who scum were. His sus on me was “you explained too fast,” and nobody picked it up. WF had already set Noah aside DP2. Scum don’t need to kill someone no one is listening to. And killing the guy sussing you is the most obvious finger-point there is, which is exactly why it makes a good frame. Same thing I said about Mag1c’s blackmail being used to frame Helz in DP2. “Follow the trail of blood” doesn’t hold up either. Mago died N1 voting Thoth, and Thoth was scum. If scum avoided kills that point at themselves, that one never happens. The kills in this game went to threatening roles, not to whoever was sussing who.

Please explain how redirector is threatening compared to the other claims

I literally just did. Redirector effects night kills, ninjas, strongmans, etc. They had no way of knowing who magic gave his roles to either. Though at this point he probably gave it to a dead person more likely.

Originally Posted by whiteflame on 10/12/2026 at 11:29 AM (post #49)

Originally Posted by Lunatic on 10/12/2026 at 1:17 PM (post #42)

Scum didn’t only have the Vanillizer as a cop counter. The Singer handed them a town PM N1, which is a straight counter to an investigator if it lands on one. The Vanillizer would have shut me off permanently, they just aimed it at you. Strongman covers the Doc, Ninja covers the Tracker/Watcher, and on top of all that they had the auto-win clock. I don’t think they needed a Lawyer to be balanced, they needed to guess right with the Vanillizer, and they didn’t.

Again, though, Singer runs into the same problem as Vanillaizer: it's bad for anyone who gets revealed, not just the Cop. And you're agreeing that scum had access to specific counters to the Doc (and the BP) and the Tracker/Watcher. Just weird for Pie and Savant to add all that, and yet no specific responses to a Cop that has more shots than any of them.

I’d look at it as each counter matching what it’s countering. Town’s one-shot roles got one-shot counters, Strongman for the doc/BP and Ninja for the one-shot tracker/watcher. The one role that keeps going every night got the one counter that’s permanent. The Vanillizer is the only ability in this game that shuts a role off for good, and the cop is the only role that really cares about that.

Agreed, it’d be a weird choice as scum to give Helz a green check and then kill him.

The more I think about this decision, the less surprising it is. Whether you or Kohai are scum, you both had incentive to kill Helz during the NP. You'd know your partner was going to flip and that the Vanillaizer would be revealed. So it was between keeping Helz or me. I could see incentive for both of you to keep me around, and it's not just WIFOM.

My PM doesn’t list a shot limit, it’s a standard cop. The limited roles were the ones with bigger effects. A doc stops a kill outright, and a redirector can move the NK. The passives (Popular, Singer, Soldier) weren’t limited either.

So then all the active roles in this game have clear limits in number of uses... except yours? I don't get how a Cop doesn't have one of the bigger effects in this game, and if we're functioning along that line of reasoning, why a Watcher/Tracker role granted to a player would only have one shot as compared with a Commuter.

With the clock, this game was always max 4 days with forced lynches, so 3 nights. “Unlimited” works out to 3 checks, which is basically the same as the Inventor’s 3 one-shot items. It fits the setup more than you’d think.

Clinton fits Popular perfectly, which is exactly why he’s the easy fake for an Epstein scum. He’s the first name anyone associates with Epstein, scum had host questions to confirm he was in, and Kohai claimed him at post 4 of DP1. Hawking was at Epstein’s 2006 conference on the island and is in the files. “Greatest mind, nothing escapes his analysis” is a pretty natural cop justification for him.

I beg to differ on the assertion that Clinton's the first name people think of, I'd say that's DJT, but that's besides the point. Kohai also claimed that name super early in the DP. I'd have to believe that scum had extra time before the start of the DP, asked their questions, and included Clinton as one of their checks (if he's so obvious, that's a pretty risky choice). By contrast, while Hawking certainly is a notable name, he's not exactly first to mind when it comes to Epstein.

You said yourself DP1 that scum may have had prep time and we shouldn’t trust fast claims at face value. Asking about Clinton is low risk for scum. He’s near guaranteed to be in an Epstein game, and it confirms he isn’t taken. DJT would be the obvious one, but you already had him.

Again, though, that's not a counter. Mag1c's role reveal hurts anyone whose PM gets revealed, that's just straight up. It doesn't do more harm to a Cop than it does to, say, a Doctor. And yes, we'd have to assume based on everything we know that the other scum role in play is 1x Blackmailer, 1x Lawyer, and Popular.

We can agree to dis-agree about whether a clear counter to cop isn't a vanillizer, or that the time limit plus magic roles don't act as counters. But yeah, not entirely out of the question a counter like lawyer doesn't exist.

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/12/2026 at 11:25 AM (post #47)

The Noah kill only makes sense because of their Luna sus.

Kohai, the Noah kill makes way more sense mechanically than as a read thing. Noah claimed a 2x redirector usable on odd nights, which meant N3 was the first night he could act. A redirector can push the NK onto scum or shift it away from its target. That’s the last thing any scum wants live going into the endgame, so he was the obvious kill no matter who scum were. His sus on me was “you explained too fast,” and nobody picked it up. WF had already set Noah aside DP2. Scum don’t need to kill someone no one is listening to. And killing the guy sussing you is the most obvious finger-point there is, which is exactly why it makes a good frame. Same thing I said about Mag1c’s blackmail being used to frame Helz in DP2. “Follow the trail of blood” doesn’t hold up either. Mago died N1 voting Thoth, and Thoth was scum. If scum avoided kills that point at themselves, that one never happens. The kills in this game went to threatening roles, not to whoever was sussing who.

If I actually get mislynched here I can't even be too mad about it. My history of bussing has caused a lot of paranoia, it was bound to backfire on me at some point. That said, I would actually have been retarded to choose a bus here over just pushing helz towards lynching outside of me and thoth yesterday, when that was almost something we did. I basically doubled down on a bus over a free win is the argument here lol.

Originally Posted by whiteflame on 10/12/2026 at 11:13 AM (post #39)

Originally Posted by Lunatic on 10/12/2026 at 1:09 PM (post #36)

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/12/2026 at 11:04 AM (post #33)

mafia has counter to doctor and tracker but not to cop!?

Vanillizer counters cop.

I'm hesitant to buy into that. Vanillaizer counters PRs, not Cop specifically, and scum clearly had a response to the 1X Tracker and Watcher roles that Mag1c could've given out. Why not have a response to the other investigative role that has 3X or more shots?

There is three counters to it if you count magics role revealing a role, and the every night phase kill as well. Also we don't know that the other scum role doesnt have a lawyer factor to it as well. They could have a 1x blackmail, 1x lawyer, 1xpopular for all we know. That said, I do think there is enough known counters without that to factor as a counter here.

Originally Posted by whiteflame on 10/12/2026 at 11:08 AM (post #34)

Alright, things I'm considering at this point. I'll be going back through the previous DPs to see what else comes up, but I'm thinking mechanically for now.

1. Game Balance

We know that the Blackmailer only has one shot, given the fake out on Thoth. I disagree that there's a dramatic shift in the balance of the game resulting from the addition of a passive Popular to the Blackmailer role. The main concern is how a Cop affects that balance, and I'll admit, I've been thinking a lot about how that would work into it. I would pretty much have to assume that the Blackmailer would also have to be a Lawyer - I just don't buy that scum's sole response to a persistent Cop is a Vanillaizer. So either I'm buying a Blackmailer/Lawyer/Popular JOAT (would have to be Epstein or Derschowitz - Lawyer doesn't really fit Epstein and Popular doesn't fit Derschowitz), or I'm just buying a Blackmailer. It's a tenuous balance either way.

Scum didn’t only have the Vanillizer as a cop counter. The Singer handed them a town PM N1, which is a straight counter to an investigator if it lands on one. The Vanillizer would have shut me off permanently, they just aimed it at you. Strongman covers the Doc, Ninja covers the Tracker/Watcher, and on top of all that they had the auto-win clock. I don’t think they needed a Lawyer to be balanced, they needed to guess right with the Vanillizer, and they didn’t.

2. Claims

So, going into this DP, we had confirmation of the Popular claim and two stated targets of the Cop, one of which clearly supported Helz and one pushed against Thoth. The latter would either have had to be a strong bus or an actual result, and the former doesn't make a whole lot of sense given it seems like an odd choice to give Helz a green check if Luna's scum. Seems odder still to just kill Helz after giving him a green check, though I have more thoughts on that choice that I'm still considering.

Agreed, it’d be a weird choice as scum to give Helz a green check and then kill him.

What bothers me most about Luna's claim, though, is the fact that he has at least 3 shots. Note the Doctor. Note the Redirector. Both 2X. The Inventor has more "shots," but that's a distinctly different role and still a limited use role.

My PM doesn’t list a shot limit, it’s a standard cop. The limited roles were the ones with bigger effects. A doc stops a kill outright, and a redirector can move the NK. The passives (Popular, Singer, Soldier) weren’t limited either.

I've also said before and I stand by my thinking that Hawking looks just a little off. Clinton isn't a perfect claim, but the association with popularity is stronger for him than it is for Epstein, who would have to be Popular and the Blackmailer for Kohai to be scum.

Clinton fits Popular perfectly, which is exactly why he’s the easy fake for an Epstein scum. He’s the first name anyone associates with Epstein, scum had host questions to confirm he was in, and Kohai claimed him at post 4 of DP1. Hawking was at Epstein’s 2006 conference on the island and is in the files. “Greatest mind, nothing escapes his analysis” is a pretty natural cop justification for him.

Originally Posted by whiteflame on 10/12/2026 at 11:09 AM (post #35)

Originally Posted by Lunatic on 10/12/2026 at 12:52 PM (post #23)

I guess if you don't hammer immediately you are town confirmed.

I mean, pretty clear I'm not scum at this point. Figured that was obvious after the Vanillaizer flip.

Unless scum were just masochists and self vanillizing, but yeah didn't really buy that.

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/12/2026 at 11:04 AM (post #33)

mafia has counter to doctor and tracker but not to cop!?

Vanillizer counters cop.

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/12/2026 at 11:00 AM (post #31)

Originally Posted by Lunatic on 10/12/2026 at 12:54 PM (post #26)

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/12/2026 at 10:34 AM (post #6)

Originally Posted by whiteflame on 10/12/2026 at 12:33 PM (post #5)

And there's the confirmation of the Vanillaizer.

Which makes me paranoid of Luna.

I have seen Luna hard bus like this before

The biggest argument against a bus here is that whiteflame was a prime suspect all game. I have 0 reason to town confirm him by opting for thoth. Helz was wanting to kill outside of thoth all of last day phase, we managed to convince him to vote thoth. For me to have bussed I would have purposely had to choose the path of most resistance, and have opted into confirming whiteflame by killing the vanillizer. Makes no sense. Scum could have won yesterday.

1. I’ve seen you pull shit like this before

Find me one example where I've bussed ever. And the last 50 games don't count.

2. I can’t even count how many times in LyLo that I’ve seen scum hard bus

There was literally no reason to... Bussing is one thing but helz had proposed to lynch outside of thoth and me multiple times yesterday. I stayed and maintained interest in wanting to lynch thoth. There was no reason to. I could have mislynched whiteflame last day phase, you were leaning him too

WF, I know this comes down to you, so I’ll keep it simple and let you think. Every result I’ve given has been right. Helz innocent, flipped town. Thoth guilty, flipped Maxwell. You innocent, and you know that one’s true. If I were scum, why would I hand town Thoth and then clear the one player who’s been a prime suspect all game? I’d just have needed one bad town vote yesterday. Why I’m alive: The Soldier was the one role that guaranteed town a win in the endgame, so it had to go before anything else. Go back to your own reads. DP3 you had Helz and Kohai as your focus and were favoring Kohai. DP2 you didn’t like Kohai jumping on Helz right next to Mag1c. Kohai claimed Clinton at post 4 of DP1, the most obvious character for scum to check with a host question, which is something you warned about yourself. He also put town Mag1c at L1.

Take your time. I’m not going anywhere.

Originally Posted by whiteflame on 10/12/2026 at 10:33 AM (post #5)

And there's the confirmation of the Vanillaizer.

Also you have about 20+ hours, so plenty of time to sus this out, question us, etc, though I do have to go to bed relatively soon, so if you have anything you want to ask me, please do so in the next hour or so. I will be on this evening as usual but you may be alseep.

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/12/2026 at 10:34 AM (post #6)

Originally Posted by whiteflame on 10/12/2026 at 12:33 PM (post #5)

And there's the confirmation of the Vanillaizer.

Which makes me paranoid of Luna.

I have seen Luna hard bus like this before

The biggest argument against a bus here is that whiteflame was a prime suspect all game. I have 0 reason to town confirm him by opting for thoth. Helz was wanting to kill outside of thoth all of last day phase, we managed to convince him to vote thoth. For me to have bussed I would have purposely had to choose the path of most resistance, and have opted into confirming whiteflame by killing the vanillizer. Makes no sense. Scum could have won yesterday.

I guess if you don't hammer immediately you are town confirmed.

VTL: Kohai

I think whiteflame is basically confirmed here. I am going to hedge my bets that it is kohai. I didn't initially want to think popular scum could have extra abilities, but it seems obvious that it has to have. Hedging my bets here, if I am wrong, well, GG I guess.

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/12/2026 at 10:48 AM (post #20)

Originally Posted by Lunatic on 10/12/2026 at 12:46 PM (post #18)

Thoth had a strongman and a ninja so that accounts for counters to two of the power roles, technically vanilizer could have countered cop as well. Chances are the other scum is just a blackmailer plus the potential for passive popular.

Do you have any results?

https://www.debatecraft.com/mafia/c/active-games/posts/8i/epsteins-island-mafia-dp4?comment_number=13

Thoth had a strongman and a ninja so that accounts for counters to two of the power roles, technically vanilizer could have countered cop as well. Chances are the other scum is just a blackmailer plus the potential for passive popular.

Originally Posted by whiteflame on 10/12/2026 at 10:36 AM (post #9)

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/12/2026 at 12:34 PM (post #6)

Originally Posted by whiteflame on 10/12/2026 at 12:33 PM (post #5)

And there's the confirmation of the Vanillaizer.

Which makes me paranoid of Luna.

I have seen Luna hard bus like this before

Yeah, I can't dismiss that possibility. Would he really just fake claim Cop 2 games in a row?

Also two games in a row without a cop? Just kind of a rarity in and of itself.

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/12/2026 at 10:36 AM (post #10)

Gonna need to slow down here.

One big red flag is Noah died with a strong sus of Luna. Why would scum kill a newbie?

My guess is that mafia weren't too scared of power roles, because they had counters to everything. He had already claimed a redirector at this point. I thought it was strange because it seems noah would have been an optimal mislynch target for them.

Mafia must have some sort of counter to me, so I have to take it with a grain of salt, but I would say im like 90% sure whiteflame is town with being vanillized. Using a vanillize on themselves is just masochistic. The self silence isn't as surprising.

That's unsurprising that helz was killed, he probably shouldn't have claimed soldier, but oh well.

Hey there, got an innocent on whiteflame.

VTL: Thoth

Ill use the bot to make it official

Someone hammer lets go into dp4 with extra time!

Originally Posted by whiteflame on 10/12/2026 at 9:46 AM (post #166)

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/12/2026 at 11:42 AM (post #164)

I’m giving you 8 hours to get in here and at least try to communicate with us / vote. If not im voting you

He's had a long time to do it already, so I wouldn't go 8 hours. I'm willing to wait until near the end of the workday, so about 5.

Agreed, we should use our remaining time for LYLO anyway, thats not a phase you want to have to rush.

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/12/2026 at 9:24 AM (post #154)

The fact that wf and Helz are here and haven’t hammered gives me more confidence in w!Thoth

It would have to be exactly me or thoth at this point, so up to you guys who you believe more. But thoth's character I feel like is a dead giveaway. I think they silenced themselves to gain town cred.

Originally Posted by Helz on 10/12/2026 at 9:12 AM (post #141)

Well fuck. I suppose I will drop what I half ass had together then..

Seemed like you were leaning going thoth, sorry if you wanted to deliberate more. But honestly I think this is the safest option. Go into tomorrow with a good head on your shoulders and I trust you will make the right decision.

I'll start it off, no reason to wait any longer, everyones chimed in except thoth.

VTL thoth

Originally Posted by Helz on 10/11/2026 at 11:26 PM (post #128)

Originally Posted by Lunatic on 10/12/2026 at 12:22 AM (post #126)

Originally Posted by Helz on 10/11/2026 at 11:17 PM (post #122)

Myself / Kohai / WF

That is the way forward imo. We can default to Thoth but as the safe option but it only means we deal with the same situation of Helz/Kohai/WF tomorrow but without your voice.

If I had to make a call on thoths scum partner it would be whiteflame or kohai and of the two, I would say I am probably leaning whiteflame more than kohai. I am willing to remove you off the table for being scum completely, and if I am wrong, well by jove you are good at scum lol you had me fooled hard.

I am about on the same page. WF is a scary good player and they have made a ton of sense. There is also just a lot that points at them.

I also question what the wolfs other role was if we accept WF is teamed with Thoth. Its an entire question given the only actions we have seen that seem to come from scum are removing WF's role and the BM. So if WF is the scum and lied about having their role removed what is the other scum and what do we know there?

My guess is scum have some sort of counter to magic, me, or the doctor. Only thing that really makes sense balance wise

Originally Posted by Helz on 10/11/2026 at 11:17 PM (post #122)

Myself / Kohai / WF

That is the way forward imo. We can default to Thoth but as the safe option but it only means we deal with the same situation of Helz/Kohai/WF tomorrow but without your voice.

If I had to make a call on thoths scum partner it would be whiteflame or kohai and of the two, I would say I am probably leaning whiteflame more than kohai. I am willing to remove you off the table for being scum completely, and if I am wrong, well by jove you are good at scum lol you had me fooled hard.