Mag1cman

Another person who would’ve voted with Bullish against Mikal dead btw

I should’ve been more confident in my read on him and voted there last DP. Mb Rex.

First scum is obviously Mikal

You are going to claim. I don’t care about your reasoning for not claiming. We are at LYLO. Forget about the usefulness of your role, this is about finding scum.

NP1 target was Bullish

NP2 I went for Helz

NP3 I went for Rex

Night action failed last night; I tried to save Rex by making him suffer for another DP. I’m Hydrogen, the Doctor.

The tldr justification is that hydrogen is simple and therefore allows complexity to emerge from its simplicity as bonds with just about everything else, therefore being the element Pie chose to credit with being necessary for life.

Hammer

VTL: Casey_Risk

I read through the ISOs and it’s actually so 50/50 for me.

Mikal has a few reads that bother me, like he’s too quick to give town cred to some people. The OGI is weird cause you’d think Pie would be more on top of that, esp with how strict he was on Lunatic. Ftr I don’t care about OGI, I just get the sense the mod, if they had a rule against it they were trying to enforce, would give scum greater leniency. There’s a few things said that I do think are genuine, although last time I noted that on Mikal the scum case I had on him was correct. He’s good at acting.

Casey just feels meh. Much said nothing really accomplished. Generic blend in comments, don’t know how else to describe it. The claim and soft is the only case for the townread, but the soft could be a coincidence being used from a bad position, or it could be a pre planned soft to be used maybe for later. Also some potential for me being wrong on Bullish, as Casey may have found Bullish his claim as Casey seemed to be the only person who remembered time traveler from that other Pie game. Also some possible bs distancing with Mikal as well.

I’ll just hammer to get the info + cover for worst-case scenario. If Casey flips scum, interesting. If town, we turbo lynching Mikal next DP.

55-45 over Casey*

Mikal is 55-45 months ver Casey for me rn

Any results from last night?

I’ll make a decision at some point before bed.

There’s a real chance Casey’s soft is coincidental. It’s tough to say.

Helz, Whiteflame, Shining are all interesting

gun to head Whiteflame-Mikal-Thoth

relies on a different mech solve but it’s essentially just that Whiteflame and Mikal lied about their NP1s + Thoth scum. It’s possible.

I think I want between Mikal/Casey today

although I’m thinking about other people

Thoth still comes to mind as someone who intuitively strikes me as scummy.

anyway my high confidence town pile is really just Rex. That’s it. Bullish is almost there.

Casey’s soft has room to be just something being spun as a soft, or a soft for a later claim that could be used or not at all later.

If we’re theorizing about fake softs, mafia would want to fake soft a role. But bullish fake softed a character.

Doesnt make Casey’s soft fake, just saying Bullish’s soft is easier to believe.

I mean I’ve felt that Bullish is behaviorally town. I have yet to actually lock in and really dig but intuitively he feels town. With his early soft and his defense at a glance seems Magoroth-esque if you catch my drift.

Anyway, brb relatively soon

For those curious, I’m done with the tournament. I won the whole thing, though there was some luck involved in the final round. Tyrese Peliburton hit a crit from deep.

Any role that can move actions from Lunatic to Shining implicates Shining to an extent. Otherwise, Shining is in the clear. But we won't know that the "otherwise" is the case until the last scum falls, at which point it's moot.

EBWOP for the sake of clarification

also in case it isn't obvious I no longer believe Shining is clear on mech.

Any role that can move actions from Lunatic to Shining implicates Shining to an extent. Otherwise, Shining is in the clear. But we won't know that until the last scum falls, at which point it's moot.

Re: #116. I do have one more thing to say on mech.

Mag1cman wrote:

If strongman: Scum can cover for Helz, protect Shining from investigatives/ implicate Lunatic in investigations w/ bus drive, and mess with Bullish

Hmmm. That actually does cover for everything.

No it doesn’t. I forgot about Whiteflame. His vanillized status is unaccounted for.

whatever the combination of actions is, there’s not enough room for all of this

Actually, if there's no cop scum would have no framer, godfather, lawyer, etc and know there's no cop.

So let's theorycraft: Bullish happens to be tracker in this universe. Mafia has a ninja to counter the tracker. Mafia sees this and knows there's a tracker. Unknown mafioso vanillizes Whiteflame. Unknown mafioso bus drives Shining/Lunatic. Shining strongman kills Kohai. Scum correctly theorized Bullish is the tracker in this universe. Bullish tracks Lunatic to Kohai. Or tracks Shining to someone who wasn't the NK.

This works as something mafia could've had as their plan. Is it a given? No. But it does explain everything.

So within the 20 possibilities there's so many sub-possibilites that it's way too hard to brute force.

I'm done with mech analysis. It's not going anywhere.

well, active games that is

good

just noticed the newest update disable likes on mafia threads

it's hard

I can just brute force my way through every scenario and see who’s implicated and who’s not

-Strongman/ninja

-two of (deflect/rolestop/redirect/bus drive/vanillize)

I highly doubt three of those last five could’ve been used at the same time by scum last night. This feels like a safe bet. 20 possible combinations.