RexFavilla

I am unfortunately too busy today. I might be able to get back on around 5. But I will say this: town will suffer if I am mislynched today as opposed to in the next few dps. If you have a scum read on me keep me in your POE or whatever. But I wouldn't lynch me DP1.

The lack of shit to go off of with REF really hurts my read on him. At minimum, he's null, but I don't love that he started with a reaction test saying he was scumreading Magic and Wryly, then come around with a set of reads that still places one of them as scum.

?? Is there some bizarre rule where you can only townread someone based on their reaction to a reaction test? Wouldn't that make reaction tests completely useless?

I found it odd that Magic is dissecting everything in this game in minute detail and is trying to start discussions with random number tests but didn't speculate at all when I hard scum-read him out of the blue. Isn't responding to that a better opportunity to start engagement/activity ex nihilo than wondering why someone picked a random number?

I don't have many reads. My earlier ones were a reaction test. I lean town on Wryly because I feel like a new player would either clam up and stop posting or have some kind of reaction to being hard scum read. Magic I'm leaning a bit scum on because I feel like he would at least respond to that with his level of experience. RT also didn't have much of a reaction, but I don't parse that as particularly town or scum. He might have been relieved to be town read by me as either scum or town and just let it sit. Thoth I find interesting because he's an experienced player that I don't have much history with. I'll have to watch his responses next DP more - I think I've made my opinion known that DP1 is useless for scumhunting in most scenarios. We should really just get activity going and I realize I haven't been very good about that. I honestly didn't expect this game to start this early due to the short list of signups and have a pretty packed schedule. Whiteflame I guess I'm leaning town but I've never played with him as scum that I can remember so I don't have a feel for it.

I guess my gender would be 'unknown' or 'both'?

I'm tired as hell and going to bed but have a raging hard scum read on Mharman & Wryly. Will elaborate tomorrow. Townreading RT.

Going to bed, just a heads up that I won't be able to post until later tomorrow night.

Did y'all really not believe I was C Round / K Round?

I believed you buddy. I was a voice in the wilderness calling out to lynch Wylted/Shining.

Damn just checked Discord and noticed I got caroler results. RationalTheist, Ultracrepidarian, and McDonaldsReal. So scum was cooked either way. as we would have narrowed it down to two once I got back.

I literally just lead a rabid tunnel lynch on the beloved princess in the last game so I can't judge anyone at all in that department lol.

Plus I was intentionally being kind of greasy. You tunneling me wasn't why I scum read you, I just got a bad vibe but I'm probably just unfamiliar with your playstyle.

I just saw suikoden and I’m beyond hyped

Going to be based on the OG game (Suikoden I). Just played the remasters, it was my first RPG back in the day. Such strong nostalgia lol.

Might do 2 at some point later on.

/in

Microsoft Excel Mafia

Damn I just got back and you guys stomped all the fuckers out. Feels good that I picked earth/Wylted as my lynch choice during POE and that Ultra was at the top of my scum pile. I also had a strong scum read on Micky D's, which was completely off. The first game where I strong town read both RT and Whiteflame.

I love my role and actually am a bit miffed that I didn't get to use it. Was trying to skate by and seem scummy enough to not be NKed and to potentially be lynched at the end. When I'm lynched the DP enters twilight and I can choose someone to kill. If I was in the final three was going to try vote myself and trick scum into quickhammering so I could kill them.

If you full claim at any point and you aren't the cop or the doc I will try my damndest to lynch you. Please don't cave to pressure, scum will be seeking full claims especially within POE.

Lunatic is now also one of my top scumreads for pushing for another full claim with POE, and RT just wiped out whatever townread I had on him. There's quite literally zero reason to do this, it's incredibly anti-town. If a town player think's that their role is so critical that lynching them will cripple town, they can make the judgement call on whether to claim or not. If we in the process of deliberation we get full claims from all the characters within POE it will likely give them some vulnerability to scum and we are, by definition, not going to lynch all of them so it means that we will be giving whatever town-confirmed players which survive vulnerability.

Well Thoth is the lynch now. The last anti-claim mechanic that Casey included allowed scum to nullify any protection if they knew your character and role. This means that if you are in POE and full claim, there's a good chance you cannot be protected. So don't fucking full claim, because it means that you're removing town's ability to protect you from the NK once we do lynch scum in the POE, at which point mafia will almost certainly start targeting whichever town players survived for NKs as they will be town confirmed. This presents town's best chance to either prevent a NK or to scare scum off from killing a town-confirmed player. Whatever utility your role has, possibly depriving town of the ability to cancel out a NK at that phase of the game by protecting you is not worth it. Unless you are the cop, if you full claim you are in my eyes making yourself worthless as a town-confirmed player. You are not reducing my chance of lynching you at all, you are increasing it.

I will check in tonight and maybe tomorrow before I leave, but I'll be away on another camping trip till Tuesday so I might not be very active for the next few days.

Wylted was pushing for claims DP1 and Shining is in POE and isn't participating much. Mikal has claimed an investigative role, and scum won't NK him because he's in the Caroler POE. Thoth is at least active and will be easier to get a read on moving forward. I'd support a Shining lynch.

VTL Shining.

Since both of you have brought this up now, I believe it would be a big mistake to lynch RT, especially if the goal is just to verify his result. By using a lynch to verify his result, you also limit your chances to find scum among those three, which is especially strange if you are among those three (looking at you, Thoth - this should be a coin flip for you if you have any reason to believe RT received this trio of names and are Town).

The only scenario where you should be seeking a lynch on RT is if you believe we're both scum, as Thoth clearly does.

Yeah, this makes sense. I was thinking earlier that it would be best to confirm because if he is lying then we wouldn't be able to town-confirm the other players in the POE once we lynch him and will basically be fucked because the results would be fake. Then I thought about it a bit more and realized that we probably still could town-confirm them because, if he was lying as scum, he wouldn't include any scum players in the fake POE.

Can't say Thoth's scenario didn't occur to me before, alongside the scenario where WF is town and RT is scum and RT gave a fake list to secure three mislynches. It might be worth it to make RT the lynch today just because his flip as town will secure the results as valid. Because it there's no scum in the POE, following it will cost us the game.

In regards to rex, the fact that he hasn't even mentioned this kind of makes me scratch my head. If he never saw me make that post for example its probably extra townie, but now I am wondering if he's scum and acknowledged it and is playing along.

I saw it and took note of it. Just playing this DP close to the chest. I figured you had some kind of result but didn't want to press the issue or draw attention to it when there was more important stuff to pay attention to. Something like the Whiteflame situation is the unfortunate result of focusing too much on roles and results. Honestly wish I had logged in once he started beating RT over the head with the fact that he was responsible for the oracle results. Would have unvoted.

Honestly y'all claim way too easy. I would've taken that shit to the grave even as town. Punish town for pushing for claims that we have no business outing DP2.

and why the fuck are we testing popular again

This was Mikal's idea originally, I was just okay with it because I was bored at the time and it would generate activity.

Unvote

I will go over shit again tomorrow.

Unvote

VTL MIkal

I think nobody else in the POE should claim. If having claimed makes one vulnerable somehow, we don't want the town-confirmed people that we take into the lategame to be handicapped somehow because they were pressured to claim just because they were in POE. Instead, they should be targeted with investigative roles. So I think you two shouldn't say a peep about your role or character unless you have critical results.

I am willing to hard-claim if that's what it takes to get me off the shortlist, but I am unconvinced that there is guaranteed to be a scum among the three people that RT saw. Maybe 3/4 or 4/5 chance this is what it appears to be. For that matter, I'm willing to die if y'all think it necessarily to town-confirm others.

That's why I included RT in the POE for a total POE of four. Either he is lying about the three names and is scum or scum is within the three names he listed.

Why would scum kill within POE NP4

Lets say you are scum. We lynch RT DP2, Mikal DP3, and you DP4. At this point, Shining is confirmed town as he's the only living person from the original POE and we've found the scum (you) within that POE. Because of this, he would be the obvious NK target because bringing a confirmed townie into the final DP makes it much, much harder for scum to win.

Oh actually I was wrong about DP 5, that would be XOO cause scum would kill within POE NP4, making it a 33% chance to win. So hitting scum DP 3 is ideal, today is meh and hitting them at the end would be a little worse than hitting them today.

Basically we have a four way POE between RT, Mikal, Shining, and Thoth at this point. There are nine players left. Assuming two scum, this is the worst case scenario:

DP 2: XOOOOXOOO 25% chance to hit scum in POE

DP 3: XOOOXOO 33% chance to hit scum in POE

DP 4: XOOXO 50% chance to hit scum in POE

Gameover if we guess incorrectly

Scum will likely NK the town players outside of the POE up until we hit scum, at which point they will target town players within it. We have a 25% chance to not hit scum within the POE before the end of the game, a 50% chance to not hit them before the last DP. Keep this in mind when determining who to protect and who to investigate. Also keep in mind that if we hit scum early we will town confirm several players.

If we hit scum today (0ML in POE):

DP 3: XOOOOOO 20% chance to hit scum

DP 4: XOOOO 25% chance to hit scum

DP 5: XOO 33% chance to hit scum

Gameover if incorrect - 40% chance to win

If we hit scum DP 3 (1ML in POE):

DP 4: XOOOO 33% chance to hit scum

DP 5: XOO 50% chance to hit scum

Gameover if incorrect - 67% chance to win

If we hit scum DP 4 (2 ML in POE):

DP 5: XOO 50% chance to hit scum

Game over if incorrect - 50% chance to win

Oddly enough, the math works out when you factor out scum incentives when nking that the longer we take to lynch scum in the POE the more town confirmed players we take into the late game when there are less places for scum to hide and our chances to hit them actually become quite high. The middle option is actually best, but really the takeaway is that we shouldn't worry too much about hitting scum today and just gather info so we can solve the late game.

VTL RT

Why not test it again?

Unvote

Waiting for Thoth to post.

If you were a flavored dayvig and had to shoot either Whiteflame or Mikal right now, which would you shoot and why?

I'm not trusting those three names. What if scum simply have an ability where they can simply send town players a message at night? They could have sent three names knowing that's how it would be interpreted - that's three mislynches by the time we get wise to it, pretty much game over.