SatanLucy

Trump is the luckiest idiot on a planet of billions of people

to be honest, Biden dementia, war in Ukraine, and Kamala as opponent is pure luck. But yeah, person who keeps trying eventually ends up lucky or dead. trump was close to getting shot, and that bullet dodge was also huge luck.

There's also gambling as the only means to victory sometimes.

thats not gambling.

If you have two options:

Option A: Guaranteed loss

Option B: Maybe loss, maybe win

Only someone who wants to lose for sure would pick option A. Option B is basically guaranteed reduction in loss chance. But these situations are rare, and in gambling, are often attempted to be created mathematically because its certain victory strategy on large scale.

But usual safe strategy is to not gamble at all. the actual strategy which works is minimizing chances of loss. If you increase chance of profit, but also increase chance of loss, on a large scale, its usually a net loss. Only two strategies work: minimize chances of loss, or/plus increase profit to risk ratio.

Here is some AI spam about gambling, this is interesting I promise.

True arbitrage (a.k.a. “sure betting”) is the one case in gambling where the math can guarantee profit — if you can actually execute it.

Let’s break it down cleanly.

What true arbitrage is

You place bets on all possible outcomes of an event at different odds (usually from different sportsbooks) where the prices are misaligned enough that:

No matter what happens, you win a small amount

This works because bookmakers disagree or update odds at different speeds.

The core math (this part matters)

Convert odds to implied probability.

Decimal odds example (simplest):

1. Book A: Team A @ 2.10
2. Book B: Team B @ 2.10

Implied probability:

1. 1 / 2.10 = 47.62%
2. 1 / 2.10 = 47.62%
3. Total = 95.24%

Since that’s under 100%, there’s a 4.76% arbitrage window.

Anything under 100% = theoretical guaranteed profit.

How the bets are sized

You don’t bet equal amounts — you size them so payouts match.

Example:

1. Total bankroll: $1,000
2. Bet $500 on Team A @ 2.10
3. Bet $500 on Team B @ 2.10

Outcome:

1. Winner pays $1,050
2. Profit = $50 guaranteed

In reality, odds are rarely that clean, so profits are usually 0.2–2% per arb.

Where true arbitrage actually exists

Mostly in:

1. Sports betting (soccer, tennis, basketball)
2. Live betting (odds lag during games)
3. Props and niche markets
4. Occasionally crypto prediction markets

Almost never in:

1. Casino games
2. Slots
3. Roulette
4. Blackjack

Those are closed systems — no pricing disagreement.

Why it’s harder than it sounds

This is the part people don’t advertise:

1. Speed matters

Odds move fast.

You might place one side… then the other side disappears.

That turns “risk-free” into very risky.

2. Account limits & bans

Sportsbooks:

1. Track arbitrage behavior
2. Lower your max bets
3. Limit or close accounts

Arb bettors are not welcome customers.

3. Capital intensive

1. Small % returns
2. You need large bankrolls to make meaningful money
3. Funds tied up across multiple books

4. Execution risk

1. Delayed bet acceptance
2. Voided bets
3. Rule differences (OT rules, walkovers, pushes)

One mistake wipes out many small wins.

Is true arbitrage “beating the house”?

Sort of — but not in the romantic way.

You’re not outsmarting odds.

You’re exploiting:

1. Pricing inefficiencies
2. Operational slowness
3. Human error

It’s closer to logistics trading than gambling.

The honest verdict

Yes, true arbitrage exists.

Yes, it can be profitable.

But:

1. It’s grindy
2. It doesn’t scale forever
3. Books eventually shut you down

Most people quit because:

1. The effort > the reward
2. Or they get limited everywhere

If you want, I can:

1. Walk you through a real-world arb example step by step
2. Explain live arbitrage vs pre-match
3. Or tell you whether arb is worth it for your bankroll size

Just say the word 🎯

This is the classic Martingale intuition, and it sounds logically airtight — so let’s tackle it head-on, cleanly, no hand-waving.

You’re saying:

“If I double (or triple) after each net loss, then the first win always recovers all losses plus a profit. If I quit immediately, that profit is locked in.”

That statement is locally true.

It is globally false.

The gap between those two is where the trap lives.

Why it feels correct (and is partially correct)

Yes:

1. After any finite losing streak, a big enough next bet would recover everything
2. Most sessions do end with a win
3. If you stop immediately, that session ends positive

That’s why this system has convinced millions of smart people for 300+ years.

The missing piece: probability × magnitude

Expected value isn’t about whether you win — it’s about:

How often you lose × how much you lose when it happens

Martingale systems:

1. Win often
2. Lose rarely
3. But when they lose, they lose enormously

That rare loss outweighs all prior wins.

A simple, concrete example (no formulas)

Game:

1. 49% win
2. 51% lose
3. (Slight house edge — like a casino)

Strategy:

1. Start with $1
2. Double after each loss
3. Quit after first win

What happens:

1. You win $1 most of the time
2. Occasionally you lose:
3. $1 + $2 + $4 + $8 + $16 + $32 + $64 + $128 = $255
4. That happens inevitably if you play long enough

Your history:

Net result: you lose

“But I’ll quit after the win”

You did quit — every time — until the one time you couldn’t.

The math does not reset when you stop.

Sessions are psychological, not mathematical.

From probability’s point of view:

One catastrophic loss erases hundreds of successful quits.

Why bankroll & limits kill it

To survive n losses in a row, you need:

1. Bankroll ≈ 2ⁿ
2. Table limit ≥ your next bet

Reality guarantees:

1. A losing streak longer than you expect
2. A bet size you’re not allowed to place
3. Or money you don’t have

At that point:

1. You cannot place the recovery bet
2. Loss becomes permanent

That’s the failure point. Not “if” — when.

The killer sentence (this is the core)

Any strategy that guarantees a win unless something rare happens is exactly a strategy that loses when that rare thing inevitably happens.

Casinos are built on this principle.

Why casinos are happy to let you try

Because:

1. You bet more over time
2. You feel in control
3. You win often
4. And you eventually donate everything back — plus more

If this worked, casinos would ban doubling instantly.

Final, no-nonsense conclusion

1. ✔️ Yes, each completed cycle ends in profit
2. ❌ No, the strategy does not produce profit overall
3. ❌ Quitting does not change expectation
4. ❌ Doubling or tripling does not beat the house
5. ✅ It converts many small wins into one huge loss

If you want, I can:

1. Prove this numerically with expected value
2. Show exactly how many losses it takes to break a given bankroll
3. Explain the only conditions where Martingale appears rational (very narrow)

Just tell me how deep you want to go 🎲

There's also the idea that one can 'win the game, so to speak.

Many tried, none succeeded. Alexander the Great and Khan are two persons in history who succeeded at great conquest very quickly, but they didnt succeed in conquering the world.

And there is this usual rule that the more you grab, the more power you need to defend it. Lets say someone succeeds in conquering whole world. then new issue rises, in maintaining what was conquered.

USA is currently world super power, strongest nation in history, but it cant reasonably conquer the world without severe destruction to itself.

In gamble, you usually learn from history. And in gambling, strategies like playing for both sides tend to minimize loses. And someone with great money supply could make money on gambling using "double the input" strategy, where after each loss, you double the next investment. Usually works for gambling which has 2x or more returns, because once you eventually win, you win back all what was lost, and get more.

Martingale Strategy works with lots of money and equal probability of winning and losing, in gambling. tho there are modifications to make it work for unequal probabilities too.

https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/career-map/sell-side/capital-markets/martingale-strategy/

the obvious problem in gambling is that the only way to make money on it is if you already have lots of money.

Since a gambler will almost surely eventually flip heads, the martingale betting strategy is certain to make money for the gambler provided they have infinite wealth and there is no limit on money earned in a single bet. However, no gambler has infinite wealth, and the exponential growth of the bets can bankrupt unlucky gamblers who choose to use the martingale, causing a catastrophic loss. Despite the fact that the gambler usually wins a small net reward, thus appearing to have a sound strategy, the gambler's expected value remains zero because the small probability that the gambler will suffer a catastrophic loss exactly balances with the expected gain. In a casino, the expected value is negative, due to the house's edge. Additionally, as the likelihood of a string of consecutive losses is higher than common intuition suggests, martingale strategies can bankrupt a gambler quickly.

The fundamental reason why all martingale-type betting systems fail is that no amount of information about the results of past bets can be used to predict the results of a future bet with accuracy better than chance. In mathematical terminology, this corresponds to the assumption that the win–loss outcomes of each bet are independent and identically distributed random variables, an assumption which is valid in many realistic situations.[2] It follows from this assumption that the expected value of a series of bets is equal to the sum, over all bets that could potentially occur in the series, of the expected value of a potential bet times the probability that the player will make that bet. In most casino games, the expected value of any individual bet is negative, so the sum of many negative numbers will also always be negative.

The martingale strategy fails even with unbounded stopping time, as long as there is a limit on earnings or on the bets (which is also true in practice).[3] It is only with unbounded wealth, bets and time that it could be argued that the martingale becomes a winning strategy.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martingale_(betting_system)

the problem with gambling is that to consistently win, you actually need to already have so much wealth that gambling becomes pointless.

Wait, the hosting site has its own code of conduct which is not up to us. I have voted no ban on pretty much everything in this survey. But if that ends up being popular vote as well, we might have issues with host domain. I actually didnt consider this before. I mean, it should probably be fine as long as no one goes too extreme with their posts, or at least extreme posts arent clearly visible, which is why I voted to hide those posts as offensive. If offensive posts are hidden, it should be less of an issue, not that we can truly hide anything from domain host, but it depends on how much they check. If they shut us down, we can find another domain, which hopefully isnt retarded enough to shut down site for misgendering or insults. I agree debates about holocaust are really pushing the line tho. I didnt vote for a ban there, but yeah, I think if that gets any popular on site, domain will shut us down and we will have to find another domain. I dont like that we are put in position where we have to choose between free speech and survival of site. I mean, site will survive on another domain anyway, but current domain has terms of service which I am afraid our code of conduct cannot uphold if users start behaving as bad as code of conduct allows them.

Hitler and Napolean were confident people

Confidence was one cause of their early success and later fall.

the problem with confidence is, yes, confident people who speak up positively for themselves usually manifest good things for themselves. But many cant control it. they want more and more good things. If Hitler stopped invading other countries before it was too late, he would have remained in power, and Germany would likely be praising him today.

Its that winner overconfidence which makes person think "I conquered France and Poland, so I can conquer Russia, Britain and USA too". Its that severe jump in conclusion which makes confidence self-destructive.

I sold it for 18x my purchase price

18x? From statistics I see, homes went up in price about 10x. But 18x return of investment is great tho. trump needs to limit rich people from their increasing share of home ownership. the percentage of Americans who own homes are reducing, while number of homes owned by top 10% of society are rising rapidly. the rich create artificial inflation by buying a lot of market, causing shortages.

Yeah, just to be clear, not all Bosnians are muslims. Islam has nothing to do with being Bosnian. I dont know who is spreading that lie on internet massively. there are serbs who are muslims. there are bosnians who are atheists. the religion is only true in most cases, not all, but even most Bosnians arent really any dedicated muslims. Belief in Allah doesnt mean being muslim because Allah is just arabic word for God. And when Quran is translated literally, Allah is translated as just "God". Word Allah existed far before islam did. Now, you usually wont find a dedicated muslim in Bosnia. You are much more likely to find a dedicated alcohol drinker, smoker...ect. Approach to religion in Bosnia is simply that people follow labels, not commands of religion mostly. We respect religion, we dont actually practice it for most part.

I have actually entered this topic by agreeing with your position, and I still agree trump's way of governing is short term win, bad long term, but why are you turning this into insult exchange? You actually had no reason to use insults there, and honestly, would be much better if you didnt. I dont know why so many leftists have this habit, but its literally just hurting you to get constantly baited into insult fights. I literally cant understand why bother to produce logical argument, and then always add insults to it. Your arguments dont benefit from insults one bit, but makes you seem more hostile to all, which isnt good.

I just stopped caring and designed my life so being likeable wasn't that important.

Ability is usually more important. Money enables things, but the problem is that if you use only money as bait, all you end up with are people who only care for money. Kafka's metamorphosis described this perfectly. Money is important, but it shouldnt be used as bait, because it attracts terrible personalities. I prefer people who love me for my failures, not for my success, because success is temporary and gets boring quickly. If I become a millionaire, do I really want people who only care for my money? And what happens if I run out of money, or if there is not enough? Money based relationships are so bad because it is the most fake love there is. So ability is important, but it shouldnt be focused on mere money. Ability to care is much more valuable than money. You are correct that ability is crucial, but I just want to point out that ability to earn money on its own doesnt work. Other abilities must be present, especially ability in social interaction because I see people do miracles with power of word alone. trump became president through skilled word use, and its amazing. Words and expressions actually have power which is so great that failing there is almost certain failure in life. Even rich person fails if repulsive to people, and poor person who is skilled at expression succeeds. People who cant talk usually need other ways of expression. I know due to my speech disorder, which often forces me to whisper to avoid failure, actually am put at disadvantage and main reason why online relationships work for me much better than real life relationships, because its much more difficult to be interesting when you cant talk and seem emotionless.

My main problem was always that I have autism, so I often misread other people's emotions and future responses. Yet somehow this usually leads to me being likeable, compared to other people with autism who are usually just hated.

the actual secret to social interaction is positive embarrassment, comedy and cuteness.

First, lets begin by explaining what is positive embarrassment, because most autistic people fail here. You see, autistic people usually embarrass themselves, but not in a positive way.

Positive embarrassment is embarrassment which makes people like having you around.

Negative embarrassment is embarrassment which makes people run away from you.

But let us first understand crucial difference, and that is joy causing embarrassment.

In other words, you must embarrass yourself in way other people find funny or interesting, not repulsive.

But first, we must understand what people find interesting.

People find interesting those things which make them feel valuable, or equally valuable to you, or more valuable than you.

the only way this is easily achieved is by lowering your own value. So you make small mistakes, and you admit them. You self-criticize. You sometimes act and speak in way which makes little logical sense. You do and say things which make others feel more valuable in comparison to you. You complain. You express sadness, but also joy. You say smart things, but also funny things and things which make no sense, and things designed so that when others hear them, they feel more valuable.

Because secret is this, most people feel inferior in life, they feel like others are better than them, because there is always someone better. So when they see someone worse than them, they feel better, but also feel a bit of compassion, and the person becomes interesting to them due to feeling similar as they feel.

the secret to success is failure. Its not pretending to be successful. Pretending to be successful on its own doesnt work. It makes people around you feel inferior.

the secret is failure. Expressing your mistakes, your lower value, admitting your mistakes.

Another secret is comedy, and comedy is built upon failure. Success usually isnt funny. Failure is. Its failure of someone else which can make success funny, but comedy always depends on failure of something.

And third secret is cuteness. to learn to talk in a cute way. Modern way of talking online is mostly funny/cute gifs.

But in real life, being cute isnt about looks alone. It is about learning to talk in way which is adorable, using words, sounds and appearance which expresses cuteness.

Cuteness is difficult to define, because unlike comedy, its not built upon failure generally, but failure of reason. In other words, actions which dont have any apparent or obvious reason are usually cute. the element of surprise is crucial, this is why there must not be any obvious reason which could predict reaction and make it obvious what follows.

Secret is to have reactions which are just unpredictable, not repetitive, and with highest variety of emotions and expressions.

No one really likes a cold emotionless man.

When I tell you truth, you think its a lie. I am truly best liar, because I lie by telling the truth, and that should be logically impossible, but it isnt. the best way to lie is to tell the truth so absurd that people refuse to believe it.

You should introduce your parents to DebateCraft so they can learn what mistakes they have committed raising you.

My parents have IQ of 70. they cant figure out how to use a modern phone charger and have broken 10 phone chargers past years. they wont learn from their mistakes ever, because they are too dumb to know what a mistake is.

Like, I explained them their mistakes multiple times. But you cant explain anything to someone who has IQ of 70. People who cannot think logically cant understand anything.

All they give are emotional responses, because their brain stopped functioning properly, probably from decades of constant smoking and constant retarded behavior.

Even when they are left with a son who wont reproduce or get a job or be useful in any way, they still think they were good parents, because again, someone who is retarded doesnt know what a mistake is, but seeks excuses for bad behavior instead of fixing bad behavior.

So for example, when I tell my parents they were wrong for letting teacher hit me when I was a kid, they are not going to say "yes, we were wrong", but will try to find excuses for behavior. And finding excuses for bad behavior is just something a retard does, because retard isnt a problem solver, but someone who finds excuses for not solving a problem.

Maybe when they are old and with no one to care for them, they will learn their mistake, but I doubt it. they are only getting more retarded with age.

It's just that I don't believe you and you cannot convince me.

thats good. that way, even when I say truth, you will think its a lie. this is good because I prefer when people consider me a liar. My father Satan is a liar too, and he is the best of liars.

You dont have to believe me. that is okay. It is even better if you dont believe me.

My parents are retards, to be honest. they want to be abusive, and then not even buy me a sex doll once I turned 18. Well, they shouldnt expect me to get a job or be useful, because I wont. they werent useful to me, so I wont be useful to them.

Yet the DNA makes people distinctly different in multiple ways not just skin color.

Mutation is possible. I am entirely different from everyone in my family, even in skin color where I am pale white while they are darker. So I concluded either my DNA mutated a lot or they are not my real family and I am adopted.

trump is probably biggest expert on reward plus punishment mentality. He made Europe know great punishment is coming if they dont comply, but if they comply, there is probably some reward, or at least no more punishment, for now.

I have never seen someone as capable as trump, to be honest. the guy became an expert at getting what he wants in this case. the only issue for him now could be winner overconfidence, and miscalculation due to overconfidence.

I dont like trump, but I have to admit, thats damn impressive. trump fails in area of popularity, and in many other areas. But here, he played like some master mind. In case of Venezuela, Iran, Greenland... he played like a pro. He ruined Iran's economy in such a short time, its amazing. Really shows how powerful US is on a global scale. US can literally destroy a country without even attacking it, just economically.

From my understanding, Europe bent over and now USA can actually use Greenland in similar way it could in case of military conquest.

Europe was basically "We will let you do what you want, lets just not call it that, but lets call it "deal"".

Gun ban is one of rare things I agree with in Australia, and in Japan guns are banned but Japan is best country on Earth probably. Majority of people are retarded, and its truly better that they dont have guns. there are many replacements for guns, such as tasers, which I dont exactly approve of, but tasers at least make cops less trigger happy with guns.

It cost more to invest in gold because you need insurance, storage charges, dealership markup.

You dont need insurance. For storage, just keep it somewhere safe in home, on hidden place. Only if you have a lot of gold would you need some special storage. Gold is usually bought and sold at specific stores, and stores buying gold are only interested in gold content and pay only for that. Investing in gold jewelry is usually worse than investing in pure gold, if you later sell to those stores, because jewelry is higher price per gram of gold when you buy it. the cost for you is greater. However, jewelry can be sold privately for a bit higher price. I do have a wide range of investments, and my main rule in investment is to invest in things which have long duration time, and gain value over time. However, I am not sure if my investment in books and comic books will pay off. I have a large collection of books and comic books which I need to start selling, because I think they gained enough value and selling them gradually will maximize my profit over time.

Good on you, my friend. And, yes, hold on; don't sell now.

the ideal plan is to sell after 40 years, gradually when needed. tho if I need to sell earlier, I will.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chairman_of_the_Presidency_of_Bosnia_and_Herzegovina

Do all three presidents have equal power

I really wouldnt know. there is one president of presidency, who is chairman among 3 presidents. I dont even know what the fuck that means.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Presidency_of_Bosnia_and_Herzegovina

The SDP, SNSD and the DF.

these are political parties. SDP just recently got in power to have their candidate for president.

That is hilarious... One of the only Islamic European nations has a trinity of leaders.

It seemed like a great idea to have 3 presidents, as well as to have 3 separate election systems in a country, where person from one part of territory cant vote for candidate from other part of territory.

Yes, my country's political system is mostly based on a triad: 3 presidents, 3 groups of people, 3 election systems.

there are, however, only 2 entities, FBiH and RS. the croats dont have their own entity, which is too bad for them.

That is done so as to fairly represent the three main ethnic divisions in Bosnia. The SDP, SNSD and the DF.

those are parties, not ethnic divisions. 3 presidents are for 3 people in constitution: Bosnjak, serb, croat.

USA and Europe going to war with each other?

Even though you would like to earn American wages.

Only 25% of people are legally employed in Bosnia. So while wage is about 600$ a month, only 25% of population receives it. Retired people usually receive about 350$ a month, but in order to get those 350$ a month, you have to first work for 40 years.

I have some investments in silver and gold. I welcome any rise in their price. I know long term they are going to rise anyway, I just hope for a significant rise, at least 100x over next 40 years. In other words, the rise which was seen from 1970 to 2025, I hope repeats in next 40 years, and more. I understand you are a millionaire by investments in gold alone, when ignoring all other income. If land, silver, and gold rise in price 100x in next 40 years, I will be a millionaire too. But its so long term, and million will probably be worth a lot less after 40 years, but hopefully not much less.

And yes, I buy actual gold, not the paper or some investments owned by another party.

I think that you are confusing her with Satan Lucy, formerly Best Korea, who might be Bosnian but is probably American.

Why are you insulting me? I am not an American. I am 100% made in Bosnia. My opinion is one of rare things my country exports into the world. If my country was smart, I would be its president, but its not smart, so we have 3 presidents instead of 1 which are not really as effective and wages are lowest in Europe.