whiteflame

Originally Posted by Lunatic on 10/12/2026 at 1:17 PM (post #42)

Scum didn’t only have the Vanillizer as a cop counter. The Singer handed them a town PM N1, which is a straight counter to an investigator if it lands on one. The Vanillizer would have shut me off permanently, they just aimed it at you. Strongman covers the Doc, Ninja covers the Tracker/Watcher, and on top of all that they had the auto-win clock. I don’t think they needed a Lawyer to be balanced, they needed to guess right with the Vanillizer, and they didn’t.

Again, though, Singer runs into the same problem as Vanillaizer: it's bad for anyone who gets revealed, not just the Cop. And you're agreeing that scum had access to specific counters to the Doc (and the BP) and the Tracker/Watcher. Just weird for Pie and Savant to add all that, and yet no specific responses to a Cop that has more shots than any of them.

Agreed, it’d be a weird choice as scum to give Helz a green check and then kill him.

The more I think about this decision, the less surprising it is. Whether you or Kohai are scum, you both had incentive to kill Helz during the NP. You'd know your partner was going to flip and that the Vanillaizer would be revealed. So it was between keeping Helz or me. I could see incentive for both of you to keep me around, and it's not just WIFOM.

My PM doesn’t list a shot limit, it’s a standard cop. The limited roles were the ones with bigger effects. A doc stops a kill outright, and a redirector can move the NK. The passives (Popular, Singer, Soldier) weren’t limited either.

So then all the active roles in this game have clear limits in number of uses... except yours? I don't get how a Cop doesn't have one of the bigger effects in this game, and if we're functioning along that line of reasoning, why a Watcher/Tracker role granted to a player would only have one shot as compared with a Commuter.

Clinton fits Popular perfectly, which is exactly why he’s the easy fake for an Epstein scum. He’s the first name anyone associates with Epstein, scum had host questions to confirm he was in, and Kohai claimed him at post 4 of DP1. Hawking was at Epstein’s 2006 conference on the island and is in the files. “Greatest mind, nothing escapes his analysis” is a pretty natural cop justification for him.

I beg to differ on the assertion that Clinton's the first name people think of, I'd say that's DJT, but that's besides the point. Kohai also claimed that name super early in the DP. I'd have to believe that scum had extra time before the start of the DP, asked their questions, and included Clinton as one of their checks (if he's so obvious, that's a pretty risky choice). By contrast, while Hawking certainly is a notable name, he's not exactly first to mind when it comes to Epstein.

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/12/2026 at 1:16 PM (post #41)

Ask yourself: Why does w!me kill Noah if all people? Especially since he was strong sussing Luna

Maybe. Uncertainty surrounding how he'd use his Redirector would have been a concern for anyone, and I know I wasn't buying into the every odd night use of the role. It is interesting that he died, though, given that he was sussing Luna. You'd think his choice of target would have been Luna himself, though I guess Thoth could've carried out the kill.

Originally Posted by Lunatic on 10/12/2026 at 1:09 PM (post #36)

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/12/2026 at 11:04 AM (post #33)

mafia has counter to doctor and tracker but not to cop!?

Vanillizer counters cop.

I'm hesitant to buy into that. Vanillaizer counters PRs, not Cop specifically, and scum clearly had a response to the 1X Tracker and Watcher roles that Mag1c could've given out. Why not have a response to the other investigative role that has 3X or more shots?

Originally Posted by Lunatic on 10/12/2026 at 1:10 PM (post #37)

Originally Posted by whiteflame on 10/12/2026 at 11:09 AM (post #35)

Originally Posted by Lunatic on 10/12/2026 at 12:52 PM (post #23)

I guess if you don't hammer immediately you are town confirmed.

I mean, pretty clear I'm not scum at this point. Figured that was obvious after the Vanillaizer flip.

Unless scum were just masochists and self vanillizing, but yeah didn't really buy that.

It would be more likely for scum to just fake Vanillaizing and use the flip to make it seem like the partner was town confirmed, but yeah, pretty clear that's not what is happening.

Originally Posted by Lunatic on 10/12/2026 at 12:52 PM (post #23)

I guess if you don't hammer immediately you are town confirmed.

I mean, pretty clear I'm not scum at this point. Figured that was obvious after the Vanillaizer flip.

Alright, things I'm considering at this point. I'll be going back through the previous DPs to see what else comes up, but I'm thinking mechanically for now.

1. Game Balance

I'll just copy Kohai's work here:

Town

2x Doctor

2x Redirector

Inventor

Soldier

Claims

1x Bulletproof

Popular

Cop

Known mafia

1X Blackmailer

JOAT

We know that the Blackmailer only has one shot, given the fake out on Thoth. I disagree that there's a dramatic shift in the balance of the game resulting from the addition of a passive Popular to the Blackmailer role. The main concern is how a Cop affects that balance, and I'll admit, I've been thinking a lot about how that would work into it. I would pretty much have to assume that the Blackmailer would also have to be a Lawyer - I just don't buy that scum's sole response to a persistent Cop is a Vanillaizer. So either I'm buying a Blackmailer/Lawyer/Popular JOAT (would have to be Epstein or Derschowitz - Lawyer doesn't really fit Epstein and Popular doesn't fit Derschowitz), or I'm just buying a Blackmailer. It's a tenuous balance either way.

2. Claims

So, going into this DP, we had confirmation of the Popular claim and two stated targets of the Cop, one of which clearly supported Helz and one pushed against Thoth. The latter would either have had to be a strong bus or an actual result, and the former doesn't make a whole lot of sense given it seems like an odd choice to give Helz a green check if Luna's scum. Seems odder still to just kill Helz after giving him a green check, though I have more thoughts on that choice that I'm still considering.

What bothers me most about Luna's claim, though, is the fact that he has at least 3 shots. Note the Doctor. Note the Redirector. Both 2X. The Inventor has more "shots," but that's a distinctly different role and still a limited use role.

I've also said before and I stand by my thinking that Hawking looks just a little off. Clinton isn't a perfect claim, but the association with popularity is stronger for him than it is for Epstein, who would have to be Popular and the Blackmailer for Kohai to be scum.

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/12/2026 at 12:37 PM (post #11)

Originally Posted by whiteflame on 10/12/2026 at 12:36 PM (post #9)

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/12/2026 at 12:34 PM (post #6)

Originally Posted by whiteflame on 10/12/2026 at 12:33 PM (post #5)

And there's the confirmation of the Vanillaizer.

Which makes me paranoid of Luna.

I have seen Luna hard bus like this before

Yeah, I can't dismiss that possibility. Would he really just fake claim Cop 2 games in a row?

Yeaj. Actually let’s consider NkA

Magoroth died N1 voting Thoth

Noah died N2 sussing Luna

Valid points. I'm not voting any direction for a while, need to think through a lot of this and I want to hear from Luna.

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/12/2026 at 12:34 PM (post #6)

Originally Posted by whiteflame on 10/12/2026 at 12:33 PM (post #5)

And there's the confirmation of the Vanillaizer.

Which makes me paranoid of Luna.

I have seen Luna hard bus like this before

Yeah, I can't dismiss that possibility. Would he really just fake claim Cop 2 games in a row?

Damn, going to need to really consider this one. So either it's another Mafia JOAT with a Popular + Blackmailer (Kohai) or it's just Luna and there's a lot of choices I don't understand.

And there's the confirmation of the Vanillaizer.

Originally Posted by Helz on 10/12/2026 at 12:08 PM (post #172)

Not game related but I would like to hammer. I have a weird thing in my head of pretending Mafia has achievements and hammering every single day is something I have never done.

My favorite was a game on MU where I was scum and the top read town. Never got voted a single time even in RVS through the entire game. I figure thats a weird thing I may be the only player to have ever done in a game. If Mafia had achievements that would be a huge one.

Sorry that I am a odd mafia addict : P

Understood. If it comes down to it and I'm given the opportunity, I'll yield to you.

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/12/2026 at 11:42 AM (post #164)

I’m giving you 8 hours to get in here and at least try to communicate with us / vote. If not im voting you

He's had a long time to do it already, so I wouldn't go 8 hours. I'm willing to wait until near the end of the workday, so about 5.

Originally Posted by Helz on 10/12/2026 at 11:33 AM (post #160)

I am open to hearing opposing thoughts on Luna. I did not get all the way through my ISO there and am in a bit of a time crunch today dealing with a separate business issue with a construction company before having a meeting about that other thing.

My opinion is that 'if' we move forward betting the game that Luna is town by voting Thoth it puts the scum in a position. Killing Luna mostly confirms me. They will have to deal with the green check and argue I am exactly a godfather. But what if I am some insta win for the town? Then they have a T! confirmed Luna as a kingmaker by killing me. But what if I am a PGO and did not alert N1? Would I do such a thing viewing that as a negative utility to town? Targeting me could make them loose anyways.

They are in a pickle I am fine with. I think its obvious at this point I lied about being a citizen with nothing.

I'll admit, I don't have opposing thoughts on Luna. He would have had to play a pretty long and consistent game of trying to get you on his side for him to be scum, and that's a stretch.

I agree, scum are in a bind with this lynch (assuming we're right).

Originally Posted by Helz on 10/12/2026 at 11:33 AM (post #161)

Originally Posted by whiteflame on 10/12/2026 at 10:23 AM (post #152)

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/12/2026 at 11:21 AM (post #149)

Originally Posted by whiteflame on 10/12/2026 at 11:18 AM (post #147)

Or... you know, the bot just didn't register the vote.

Pretty confident savant will count it regardless.

I may update the bot to recognize both VTL: and VTL as valid

Fair. So the options basically come down to either Luna or Thoth being scum atp.

Unless Luna is scum we are now obligated to move on Thoth. Town can not win without voting Thoth if Luna is town.

I agree. My perspective is that Thoth is the way to go, I just can't fully shake my suspicions.

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/12/2026 at 11:21 AM (post #149)

Originally Posted by whiteflame on 10/12/2026 at 11:18 AM (post #147)

Or... you know, the bot just didn't register the vote.

Pretty confident savant will count it regardless.

I may update the bot to recognize both VTL: and VTL as valid

Fair. So the options basically come down to either Luna or Thoth being scum atp.

You could still vote here. Whether you're town or scum, I can't fathom why you haven't yet beyond just being absent.

Or... you know, the bot just didn't register the vote.

I'm fine with it. Noting the lack of a quickhammer here. Three possibilities there:

At least one member of the scum team is offline

Luna is scum

Thoth is scum

Originally Posted by Savant on 10/12/2026 at 9:25 AM (post #134)

Apologies all, deadline is supposed to be 10/14/2026 at 02:00PM Eastern. Put the wrong date/time for some reason.

Well, at least that's 2 days and change. Thanks for the adjustment.

The sad part about all this is that I know I'm the likely lynch and I'm not even mad about it. I'd probably make the same choice in any of your shoes because I tend to favor mechanical information over anything else.

And I know the only part of my claim that's working in my favor is that I'm DJT himself. I don't think it's believable at all that DJT wouldn't be in this game based on the theme, and I put out that claim before many of you had claimed, so you'd just have to believe that, in a game that Pie helped craft about Epstein Island, he just decided not to include DJT. It would be the single most baffling omission I've ever seen in a game of Mafia.

But I know that's all modpsych. I know that's balanced against implausible scenarios where Kohai or Helz have both a passive role and an active role, something I've seen and implemented in games before, but which is relatively uncommon. Alternatively, I know that's balanced against a scenario where Luna hard busses Thoth in a situation engineered to make him look like the obvious lynch. The Cop claim would have been enough to get him townread, and no, I don't see much reason to bus in this situation or get a green check on Helz other than to just carry that into the final DP and hope Helz votes with him. It's not impossible, but it's implausible.

I'm not giving up, but I can see the writing on the wall and I knew this was a steep climb going into this DP. Part of me just wants to push for a Thoth lynch and hope that the flip will give some helpful insight, but I know it's going to come down to me next DP anyway. I'd still love to see a vote from him and the longer he waits, the more I believe he's likely just scum waiting for an opportunity to get a quickhammer the moment someone casts a vote on me.

Anyway, I've said my piece. There won't be another DP if you guys do end up lynching me, so I'm not really concerned with time remaining unless we're considering another lynch. Otherwise, see you guys in the endgame.

Originally Posted by Lunatic on 10/12/2026 at 12:23 AM (post #113)

Originally Posted by whiteflame on 10/11/2026 at 4:01 PM (post #71)

All I can say is that I’m amazed anyone thinks I would either blindly fake claim Trump here or ask about him as one of the two characters I could ask were in the game and actually receive a “no” for his presence in a game about Epstein Island.

Also, feeling that tinfoil hat again: why are we writing off a Thoth/Luna pairing again? Because of bussing?

I mean you should always be wary of a bus, but a bus is just incredibly unnecessary here. There isn't much in the way of town confirmation going on in this game, so for me to bus Thoth here would be pretty extra for no reason. Also giving helz a cop clear would be counter productive, when he would be an ideal mislynch target for scum in a thoth/luna world.

I agree, though if you were in my shoes, I think you'd at least be considering it. Normally, I'd be dismissing it entirely, but I'm in a similar boat with any of my choices for susses.

Originally Posted by Helz on 10/11/2026 at 11:31 PM (post #106)

Originally Posted by whiteflame on 10/11/2026 at 10:09 PM (post #104)

Now that I think about it, we can still get one point of engagement from Thoth, which is actually posting a vote. Whether you're actually Blackmailed or scum and just playing this up, you still have a vote. Not saying you should do it now, but particularly if you are sussing Luna's claim, now's the time to clarify.

Pretty much my view.

So I am very familiar with Blackmailers. It was totally normal where I was from. But the entire thing was that they would essentially write a contract saying what can and can not happen then the person blackmailed would do whatever to squirm out of it.

I had one back in the day where I was blackmailed to accuse a specific person in every post and not say I was blackmailed. I made it really stupid obvious talking about whatever and adding at the end of every post "Also, I feel X is scum"

If all I had was a vote to work with I would use it to communicate. Thats less valid today where a vote becomes permanent so potential of a clever T! Thoth holding their vote to look at future options. Although I do get the concern given they did not just snap-vote Luna.

The one time I've seen a Blackmailer, it functioned far more similarly to what you're describing than this one, more a set of "do's" and "don'ts" than an effective ban on posting. Would love to see more of that here.

And yeah, I'm still pondering what his reason for not voting so far could be. I could see motivations for both scum and town on that level.

Now that I think about it, we can still get one point of engagement from Thoth, which is actually posting a vote. Whether you're actually Blackmailed or scum and just playing this up, you still have a vote. Not saying you should do it now, but particularly if you are sussing Luna's claim, now's the time to clarify.

Originally Posted by Helz on 10/11/2026 at 10:52 PM (post #101)

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/11/2026 at 9:46 PM (post #100)

Originally Posted by Helz on 10/11/2026 at 10:44 PM (post #96)

Man.. Can we please get engagement here? Its Lylo under a timer...

I know. Thats the one thing that bothers me on this site.

On sites like MU you get 500 posts a day and here we are like a snail’s pace

I will say it would have been reallllly fucking great to get stronger engagement from Luna right now. I should have my thing wrapped up shortly. It was a 23 page contract I was digging through and I gotta consolidate the info I got into an email now but I should be able to turn focus to this game soon.

Bothers me too, though I know that his engagement can sometimes be spotty. Still, bad time to fall silent.

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/11/2026 at 10:26 PM (post #93)

Originally Posted by whiteflame on 10/11/2026 at 10:23 PM (post #92)

I should be clear, when I said I'm favoring Kohai, I mean as a lynch.

Walk me through your worldview. From your POV the mafia PR is

Vanillaizer and Blackmailer with one of those having a popular modifier

Thats just way too OP

The possibilities from my POV are:

Thoth/Luna

Thoth/Kohai

Thoth/Helz

Luna/Kohai

Luna/Helz

In any of those worlds, I know one is a Vanillaizer and one is a Blackmailer.

We have confirmation that you are Popular.

We have confirmation that Helz got an innocent result from Luna. With two known active roles used on NP1, that could only possibly happen if he is precisely the GF or if Luna is just lying about the result.

So for 3 of these cases (T/K, T/H, and L/K), I necessarily have to believe that one person on that team has a passive role and an active role. The only two possibilities that don't fit that bill are T/L and L/H, since in the latter case, Luna could just be lying about getting an innocent result on his scum partner.

The T/L situation is fraught for a lot of reasons, and I think Helz already laid that out pretty well. The L/H situation is... actually something I should take some more time digging into. In part, I'd dismissed it because I don't think Luna gives a green check to his own partner, which would necessarily tie them together. I think both of them are more likely to bus one another as well. That would explain the existence of a Vanillaizer and a Blackmailer without the need for a passive role. If so, though, I find it weird that Helz is directing attention away from the 50-50 between Thoth and Luna, especially knowing that Thoth would almost certainly be the choice. Maybe there's something there, but if that is the team, then they're going out of their way to make things harder for themselves.

I should be clear, when I said I'm favoring Kohai, I mean as a lynch.

I get the argument Helz is making insofar as, at least for the three of us (Helz, me and Kohai) it's a choice between two people, just the same as it's a choice between two people if we're picking between Thoth and Luna. We do have at least some mechanical information for Helz and Kohai through Luna's results. I'm hesitant to take them at face value for a number of reasons - I think it's likely scum have roles that mess with Cop results and I keep rolling the possibility of Luna trying to use a fake Cop claim for a second time over in my head - but regardless, they're useful information we can use now to some degree.

I know that a Vanillaizer and Blackmailer were used by the end of DP1. I know that scum therefore couldn't use a Lawyer, so the only circumstance in which Helz is scum is exactly if he's the Godfather and one of those other two roles. I could see a world in which he's just Epstein and they give him an active and a passive role. It's plausible, even if I wouldn't call it probable.

We all know that Kohai is Popular. Again, the only person I could conceivably see as having both the Popular role and another role would be Epstein himself. I guess you could say he was very popular given how many people associated with him.

So if the decision comes down to the two of them... I'll be honest, I don't love either conclusion. It's the reason I keep returning to some possibility of a Thoth/Luna team despite that being so unlikely. I have to make a pretty big assumption either way. Kohai claimed very early to be Bill Clinton. If scum got lead time on the DP and got to ask some questions before the game started, maybe they could have prepared that. I don't like banking on that. I don't like banking on the possibility that Helz is exactly the Godfather. They both require assumptions I'd normally dismiss as too improbable to consider.

But here I am. I think you both look town behaviorally, too. By the smallest of margins, I'm favoring Kohai at this point, but there's plenty I don't like about that decision.

I know we're short on time, but I'm doing my damnedest to figure this one out and not liking how things are looking at all.

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/11/2026 at 9:54 PM (post #86)

tin foil theory

-Scum got Thoth’s role and Thoth is the actual cop

-Scum silenced Thoth

Again, though, in that case... would Thoth hold off voting Luna at all? Would any of us seriously consider anyone else if we were Silenced like this, or hold off on voting? I'm not going to argue that it's impossible, I'm just baffled that Thoth would hop on, saying he's been Blackmailed, and then not post a vote instantly upon reading Luna's claim.

meant to say “to bus for towncred” not bid

Originally Posted by Helz on 10/11/2026 at 6:23 PM (post #72)

Originally Posted by whiteflame on 10/11/2026 at 5:01 PM (post #71)

All I can say is that I’m amazed anyone thinks I would either blindly fake claim Trump here or ask about him as one of the two characters I could ask were in the game and actually receive a “no” for his presence in a game about Epstein Island.

Also, feeling that tinfoil hat again: why are we writing off a Thoth/Luna pairing again? Because of bussing?

Good points. I do not see a world where Trump is not a very obvious flavor to be in the game. So yeah, I think its much less likely to be a false flavor.

I feel Thoth/Luna pairing would be wild. It would have to be a really deep wolf play faking a blackmail, Luna claiming a really risky invest role, and deciding to kill one of their own for town cred when in Lylo they could just do nothing and likely win. I really do not see it as being a realistic potential.

If Luna lied he could get a hard CC and it would be taking wolves from a winning position into a 1v1 expecting town to kill between them and betting on winning the following day. I just really do not see any logic to such a play. It also takes a massive amount of balls to even try before considering how poor of a play that would be.

Those are fair points. Luna having recently fake claimed Cop with the explicit aim (he told me later) of bussing his scum partner (Pie last game) has me on edge a bit. As scum, I know he’s more than willing to bid for towncred, just a matter of whether there’s any meaningful benefit to doing so in this game. I don’t see it clearly here, though he didn’t have a whole lot of unknowns when it came time to claim and he tends to be a high risk-high reward player. Balance-wise, I think a Cop makes sense for this game, and it would be kind of crazy if there wasn’t one given what we know scum has.

All I can say is that I’m amazed anyone thinks I would either blindly fake claim Trump here or ask about him as one of the two characters I could ask were in the game and actually receive a “no” for his presence in a game about Epstein Island.

Also, feeling that tinfoil hat again: why are we writing off a Thoth/Luna pairing again? Because of bussing?