whiteflame

Originally Posted by Helz on 10/11/2026 at 4:59 PM (post #66)

Originally Posted by whiteflame on 10/11/2026 at 3:55 PM (post #64)

Originally Posted by Helz on 10/11/2026 at 4:50 PM (post #60)

There is also a question. We all recognize there is 100% a 1v1 between Luna/Thoth with Thoth claiming blackmailed.

For today do we resolve within that 1v1 or hunt outside of it? We 100% need 2 good lynches back to back. Assuming Luna is town they will certainly be killed tonight.

This would leave the D4 of Kohai, WF, Helz. I feel its a decent idea for us to solve there if we draw the conclusion that Thoth is absolutely the second scum. Although I do have the bias that this also gives me a 50/50

I feel like that is the 1v1 here, so I agree. We can try hunting outside of that 1v1, but either the game ends with the wrong lynch, or we get information from the flip that can help inform the scumhunt in the final 3.

I am leaning twords just wanting Luna around to help resolve Me/WF/Kohai. If we are willing to bet on Thoth being scum we are betting the entire game on Luna. And if we are gona do that having them around is a positive.

I will also say mechanically 'if' you guys decide that its as simple as Thoth then you have to either believe I am a Godfather or I am semi confirmed town.

This is an even larger stretch for WF having to also require me to be a Godfather + Vanalizer or Godfather + Blackmailer.

But solving within the 3p of Helz/Wf/Kohai is probably the play here as opposed to flipping a coin with a slot that will not speak or interact with us.

If that's what you guys would prefer, I'd understand, though I recognize that that effectively places me in the hotseat. I agree, you would have to have a dual role to be scum from where I'm sitting. So would Kohai, since he's confirmed to be Popular. Since my role is necessarily unconfirmed, it's at least mechanically more likely that I'm scum than either of you. If I am just in auto-lynch territory automatically next DP, it might just be best to hash this out now, even if I know it's going to be rough.

Originally Posted by Helz on 10/11/2026 at 4:50 PM (post #60)

There is also a question. We all recognize there is 100% a 1v1 between Luna/Thoth with Thoth claiming blackmailed.

For today do we resolve within that 1v1 or hunt outside of it? We 100% need 2 good lynches back to back. Assuming Luna is town they will certainly be killed tonight.

This would leave the D4 of Kohai, WF, Helz. I feel its a decent idea for us to solve there if we draw the conclusion that Thoth is absolutely the second scum. Although I do have the bias that this also gives me a 50/50

I feel like that is the 1v1 here, so I agree. We can try hunting outside of that 1v1, but either the game ends with the wrong lynch, or we get information from the flip that can help inform the scumhunt in the final 3.

Originally Posted by Helz on 10/11/2026 at 4:44 PM (post #58)

Im still surprised Blackmailer is in the game to begin with. It really is a pretty bastard mechanic requiring people to not work twords their win condition.

Would a 2x Blackmailer even be possible?

Like I said above, the Blackmailer here is more like an unannounced Silencer, and yes, we've seen multiple shots for Silencers here. Is it possible? Sure. Is it probable? I'm still not sure. With what looks like a 1X Vanillaizer and no other apparent roles, maybe.

I suspect our tinfoil hat theory is at least not entirely accurate, which at least partly suggests that Luna is telling the truth.

The lack of an immediate vote from Thoth is interesting. If he was town and scum had just stolen his PM and used it as Luna's claim, I don't think he'd wait to vote. Would he vote immediately as scum? Initially thought yes, but the more I think about it, the less I believe it. Doing so would immediately make clear that the scum pair is not among the remaining 3 players (the one he votes for and himself excluded) since they don't just quickhammer. It's a smart decision either as scum or town with a non-CC role to just wait and see how the DP goes.

We'd also have to believe that the random player's PM they received was exactly Thoth's (a 1/7 chance), and that they received a Cop PM and didn't try to kill the Cop. I guess scum might not have known who the player was (at least I don't think that's how the Singer works), but still, stands as odd that they'd wait to use it here knowing that Thoth could still cast a vote. Maybe they're just banking on Thoth being a relatively sus player with an unknown PM.

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/11/2026 at 4:39 PM (post #53)

Wait. If someone is blackmailed / silenced into not voting or posting wouldn’t that mean town loses immediately in LyLo?

Based on last DP, he can still vote. That being said, if the circumstances were so obvious that it was just Luna using Thoth's PM, I would expect him to have immediately VTL'd Luna.

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/11/2026 at 4:38 PM (post #51)

My biggest tin foil hat theory is Thoth is the real cop and scum silenced them so he can’t CC.

Hey, that's my tinfoil...

Seriously, this has been bothering me since Luna claimed...

Originally Posted by Helz on 10/11/2026 at 4:29 PM (post #47)

So for Thoth to not be flatly scum both Luna would have to lie about being an investigator + the Mafia team would have to have a 2nd Blackmailing charge. The only real way I see a S! Luna making this play is if Thoth had their role revealed to the mafia start of DP1 and Thoth is the real invest with Luna fake claiming after having his team silence them.

Magoroth's death revealed a town PM to scum. So yes, it is possible that Luna is scum, had the role revealed to him at the start of DP2 (not DP1) and is just using the actual PM as his claim. I've been concerned about that ever since the start of DP2. I suspect it's also the reason why you've been so concerned about my claim.

Originally Posted by Helz on 10/11/2026 at 4:21 PM (post #44)

Well then..

So I am the 'soldier' and I have no day or night action. This is part of why I was so convinced that there was an imbalance.

I figured baiting scum to push or target me was an ok D1 play even if I did it rather poorly imo and when I claimed D2 I figured that exact same play would fit what I might do as a limited shot PGO.

Alright. Justification?

Anyway, with Thoth having chimed in and apparently unable to claim, we have a big black box left on the board. That’s a problem, but it’s not the only unknown.

Mag1c should have given out two roles, one in DP1 and one in DP2. I had it confirmed by Savant that, even with his lynch, he should have been able to successfully give someone a role.

So two people should have received roles from Mag1c, but no one has said that they did. Maybe they’re both dead. Mag1c had a town lean on Magoroth, so maybe he gave him a role DP1. I have a much harder time believing that he gave a role to Noah. I know from reading the PM that it’s same day use. So either Mag1c got fed up and gave out no role at all, he gave it to Thoth who can’t speak despite remaining nervous of him, or he gave it to someone who is still keeping that hidden.

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/11/2026 at 3:02 PM (post #39)

Thoth almost certainly is scum here. I have rarely seen a blackmailer that’s more than 1 shot.

Much as I have a lot of misgivings about Thoth, I disagree with this. The Blackmailer here is essentially a Silencer that allows the target to out that they were Silenced and gives them an opportunity to vote once. It is not at all unusual for a Silencer to have multiple shots. That doesn’t make him town and I believe this is likely a gambit too, but let’s not play the game of what we think is likely for this role after getting it so clearly wrong last DP.

Originally Posted by Lunatic on 10/11/2026 at 1:30 PM (post #34)

It’s not out of the realm of possibility, just doesn’t feel like an obvious fit.

Made sense to me.

I’ll set it aside since I buy the claim regardless.

I wouldn’t go so far as to say there are no counters to protective roles. That assumes scum don’t have a Strongman or similar, and I’d say the Vanillaizer is a counter, albeit not one that would prevent protection the night it’s applied. I don’t see the stretch here, and yes, I could absolutely see scum having a response to your Cop investigation at minimum.

I do see that dilemma. I’m not saying you should take me off the table or assume I’m town at this point. It wouldn’t be a first for someone to be Popular scum and have other roles, but I doubt it, so I understand why you’d take Kohai off the table. Helz is a different story. I get trusting your result, but Godfather seems entirely plausible here, especially given the number of investigations associated with the Epstein case. Maybe Lawyer might be more plausible if we assume Dershowitz is in this game. Regardless, I can’t say I’ve got good reason to write off Helz even while buying your claim.

Of the two I would have a harder time buying helz as his scum partner, because the amount of actions that would have confirmed to have taken place still doesn't add up. We know magic was blackmailed, since there was no reason for him to lie about that. So for you to be vanillized, magic to have been black mailed, and scum have a passive god father on top of that, all for one night phase, seems a bit OP. But even if I were to buy it was OP it's still unusual to have scum use more than one action a night. Not impossible, but unlikely. I am willing to consider kohai as the scum mate as well, maybe it seemed like I was dismissing him too easy. He has been pretty analytical and thorough this game, so my vibe initially is that he is town, but I am open minded.

In both cases, you’d have to account for a passive role (Popular or Godfather) for circumstances to have worked out this way. I get that that that’s a lot to swallow. I’d say in part that it’s a balance issue, one that led us to mislynch Mag1c last DP. And hell, my Castlevania game had a Popular player on the scum team with active roles they could use as well. Whether that’s Godfather or Popular, it’s happened, just a question of whether you buy it’s happening now.

Having whiffed on both questions as scum in similar situations, I’d be hesitant to say they “must have” a good fake. Also, I’ll note that your visit to Helz confirms they are not the PGO, which means they’ve claimed VT.

Yeah I never really bought that helz was PGO, its an uncommon enough role as is. We should probably have him fully fess up though to being vanilla if he is one.

I’d like clarity on that as well.

Originally Posted by Lunatic on 10/11/2026 at 12:44 PM (post #29)

So far only thoths character really feels like an outlier here. So mafia must have used at least one question to secure a good fake.

Having whiffed on both questions as scum in similar situations, I’d be hesitant to say they “must have” a good fake. Also, I’ll note that your visit to Helz confirms they are not the PGO, which means they’ve claimed VT.

Originally Posted by Lunatic on 10/11/2026 at 12:42 PM (post #28)

Originally Posted by whiteflame on 10/11/2026 at 10:27 AM (post #25)

Originally Posted by Lunatic on 10/11/2026 at 11:55 AM (post #20)

Just realized this is up. I am Stephen Hawking, and I am the cop. Np1 I got an innocent on Helz, np2 I got a guilty on Thoth. Justification in a nut shell is that I have one of the greatest minds in history, and nothing escapes my analysis.

I will vote thoth, but I will give everyone a chance to post first so there isn't a quick hammer.

Alright, so straight up Cop then? Little odd for Hawking in particular, though he is in the Epstein files. I believe there would be a Cop or similar in this game, partly for balance and partly due to the only investigative so far being roles gifted by an Inventor.

I mean considering hawkings mental acuity, the justification made sense to me.

It’s not out of the realm of possibility, just doesn’t feel like an obvious fit.

Noah’s dead, so that means you’re largely just considering me atm. Is it just POE or do you have an active reason to sus me?

Right, I am retarded. I didn't realize noah was dead. POE is part of it, but we are still playing into the idea that there was a vanillizer and a blackmailer np1, with no counters to two protective roles, a cop and the watcher/tracker abilities that magic had. So unless mafia have some powerful role that accounts for two of those happening as well as counters to multiple investigations and protections, it's a bit of a stretch. Behaviorally you are fine, I suppose you haven't done anything wrong. I was initially town reading you when you had claimed vanillized and even bought you over magic last day phase. Do you see the dilemma we face here?

Bit of a town slip, so that helps your case.

I wouldn’t go so far as to say there are no counters to protective roles. That assumes scum don’t have a Strongman or similar, and I’d say the Vanillaizer is a counter, albeit not one that would prevent protection the night it’s applied. I don’t see the stretch here, and yes, I could absolutely see scum having a response to your Cop investigation at minimum.

I do see that dilemma. I’m not saying you should take me off the table or assume I’m town at this point. It wouldn’t be a first for someone to be Popular scum and have other roles, but I doubt it, so I understand why you’d take Kohai off the table. Helz is a different story. I get trusting your result, but Godfather seems entirely plausible here, especially given the number of investigations associated with the Epstein case. Maybe Lawyer might be more plausible if we assume Dershowitz is in this game. Regardless, I can’t say I’ve got good reason to write off Helz even while buying your claim.

Originally Posted by Lunatic on 10/11/2026 at 11:59 AM (post #21)

Not sure who thoth's partner is, but I would like to sus that out before we hammer him. My guess would be between WF and noah, but who knows. Kohai seems town to me. Helz could be a godfather, but I kind of buy the result on him. Maybe that is ignorant of me.

Noah’s dead, so that means you’re largely just considering me atm. Is it just POE or do you have an active reason to sus me?

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/11/2026 at 12:18 PM (post #24)

Wf

-I don’t buy vanillaizer / blackmail

-I don’t buy two protective roles.

Gonna look at their interactions

I’m a bit confounded by the first at this point. If you buy a claimed Cop plus you see the flipped Inventor, what exactly don’t you buy about the Vanillaizer/Blackmailer? The lack of PRs was a problem going into this DP, but not nearly so much anymore.

As for two protective roles, you can believe what you want on that front at this point. I don’t see the issue there considering one is self-protective and the other is a Doctor, which is a common pairing for a lot of games for town protectives.

I’m also a bit confused why you aren’t considering flavor here at all. Do you think Trump is scum, and if so, what do you think the theme split is? If you don’t, do you think I’d fake that claim, or that he wouldn’t be likely at all to be present in this game?

Originally Posted by Lunatic on 10/11/2026 at 11:55 AM (post #20)

Just realized this is up. I am Stephen Hawking, and I am the cop. Np1 I got an innocent on Helz, np2 I got a guilty on Thoth. Justification in a nut shell is that I have one of the greatest minds in history, and nothing escapes my analysis.

I will vote thoth, but I will give everyone a chance to post first so there isn't a quick hammer.

Alright, so straight up Cop then? Little odd for Hawking in particular, though he is in the Epstein files. I believe there would be a Cop or similar in this game, partly for balance and partly due to the only investigative so far being roles gifted by an Inventor.

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/11/2026 at 10:48 AM (post #14)

Originally Posted by whiteflame on 10/11/2026 at 10:43 AM (post #10)

Meant that as a response to your theme split theory.

Fair. What do you suppose is the split

Those visiting the island for any reason and those running the show, i.e. Epstein/Maxwell/Dershewitz. Given the Blackmailer, we can be almost certain one of the latter two is in here.

I think it's also unlikely that Thoth just straight claimed his character as scum in general, though that doesn't mean he's not scum.

Meant that as a response to your theme split theory.

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/11/2026 at 10:41 AM (post #7)

Thoth’s flavor claim stands out as they’re the only ones who claimed an accuser

Unlikely. We know scum have a Blackmailer at this point, whether you buy the Vanillaizer or not. Can't imagine the Blackmailer is among Epstein's victims.

And by last DP, I mean DP1. Mag1c would have given an invention to someone.

This is the point where everyone should be full claiming. If this is an issue of balance, then everyone should at least be clear that there is an imbalance to be had. Especially considering what Mag1c was, the Blackmailer/Vanillaizer does not seem nearly as improbable as it was, though I really don't like that no one has claimed to have received an invention from Mag1c last DP.

My attention is chiefly on Helz and Kohai at this point, like I said in my reads last DP. The fact that Mag1c's vote immediately went to Helz and that he didn't have to wait for any insights from DP2 should have everyone's alarm bells going off.

Well, looks like Mag1c was hammered, guess we're in a holding pattern until the flip and start of the next DP.

I'm worried about the lack of pushback as well, but I don't see much choice here at this point. I'm leaving my vote where it is and heading off for the night. Don't mind if Luna ends up claiming next DP instead of this one, hopefully by then we have a scum flip to work from or at least something we can use to inform a lynch next DP.

I think I am safe to claim my character. I am Virginia Giuffre.

Hmmm... first person to claim a victim of Epstein. That's interesting.

Originally Posted by Thoth on 10/10/2026 at 11:59 PM (post #365)

Originally Posted by whiteflame on 10/10/2026 at 10:48 PM (post #360)

Because I do feel it was obvious. You can disagree with that, but Thoth nearly figured it out.

Until you mentioned a photograph, I was thinking Governor, and my main qualm was that Bill Clinton would have fit better since he was the Governor of Arkansas before becoming President. I figured Helz might have missed that in #345 because Governor might not exist or be called something else in his Mafia background.

Interesting. Yeah, wouldn't have pegged Trump as Governor myself, though I can see why that might be the first thought.

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/10/2026 at 11:59 PM (post #364)

Originally Posted by whiteflame on 10/10/2026 at 11:55 PM (post #363)

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/10/2026 at 11:53 PM (post #362)

Wait so we have a bp and a 2x doctor?

Yes. If it helps to know, mine required me to say when I wanted to use it. Worst type of BP IMO, have to predict when I'd become the target of the NK and if I'm wrong it's useless

Ugh. Town is pretty under powered here.

DJT checks out as I’d be shocked if he weren’t in the game. BP checks off also

Yep, that's bothering me a lot. Town being this underpowered points to something being awry, hence I've been in agreement about the whole Vanillaizer vs. Blackmailer situation.

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/10/2026 at 11:53 PM (post #362)

Wait so we have a bp and a 2x doctor?

Yes. If it helps to know, mine required me to say when I wanted to use it. Worst type of BP IMO, have to predict when I'd become the target of the NK and if I'm wrong it's useless.

Originally Posted by Helz on 10/10/2026 at 11:47 PM (post #359)

Originally Posted by whiteflame on 10/10/2026 at 10:44 PM (post #357)

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/10/2026 at 11:38 PM (post #351)

Originally Posted by whiteflame on 10/10/2026 at 11:33 PM (post #350)

Originally Posted by Thoth on 10/10/2026 at 11:31 PM (post #349)

Oh ok, so Martyr

Thank you Pie

Not far off, but that would be on brand in its own way.

Ugh I think we do need a claim at very least so we can have better balance view

Already mentioned it won't help much on that front, but I'd be surprised if scum haven't figured it out at this point. I'm 1X BP. Justification is that I survived assassination attempts, and yes, the PM draws specific attention to the one where I was shot in the ear and the subsequent photo is the one I was referring to.

I still have the question though, Why did you feel that was so obvious to the point that you felt flavor claiming was out of the question?

Because I do feel it was obvious. You can disagree with that, but Thoth nearly figured it out.

Originally Posted by Kohai on 10/10/2026 at 11:38 PM (post #351)

Originally Posted by whiteflame on 10/10/2026 at 11:33 PM (post #350)

Originally Posted by Thoth on 10/10/2026 at 11:31 PM (post #349)

Oh ok, so Martyr

Thank you Pie

Not far off, but that would be on brand in its own way.

Ugh I think we do need a claim at very least so we can have better balance view

Already mentioned it won't help much on that front, but I'd be surprised if scum haven't figured it out at this point. I'm 1X BP. Justification is that I survived assassination attempts, and yes, the PM draws specific attention to the one where I was shot in the ear and the subsequent photo is the one I was referring to.