whiteflame

Thoth wrote:

I think you're overestimating your ability to draw others into your bluff, man. I understand wanting to believe that what you did here was proof positive, but it's not that good of a bluff and it's easy enough for someone to see through. If I was in there, I wouldn't have bought it.

Wouldn't S!whiteflame, if he correctly called that bluff, try to get me turbolynched in hopes that nobody in the thread would buy my, "it was just master baiting", excuse?

Absolutely fucking not. I'd see all your posts about how I'm town as fuck and try to keep you alive as long as possible so you'd vote with me. I'd have earned your trust, why would I turbolynch you?

I really don't like this. You were outright willing to claim your role. Why are you so skittish about a claim from Helz who either lied to you or lied to us?

I'm not skittish. It just seems to me like the person with a role should be the one to claim as long as they are alive. Kinda rude to claim on someone's behalf.

You're in here now saying that he never claimed. So it's somehow "kinda rude to claim" that he'd never stated his character in chat and had actively given you his role by name. Seriously?

Thoth wrote:

Bullish wrote:

Thoth, you said "Yes" to "Did Helz full claim to you?", but later you said "Helz did not claim Nitrogen in our chat."

Full claim means character AND role claim. What exactly did Helz claim to you?

Helz told me that he was 2x Rolestopper. He didn't mention his element, but I assumed he had already mentioned it somewhere, hence why I called that a full-claim. Now that I'm re-reading this more carefully, though, Helz did say in our chat that his challenge this game was to not talk about flavor, so that may be why he didn't claim Nitrogen anywhere.

So he literally didn't claim his character anywhere until this DP. Not in chat with you, not in public here, and he outright told you that the reason he didn't do so was because of a challenge he set for himself. Then he posted repeatedly in here that he already had full claimed, despite never having done so. And he specifically called his role Rolestopper despite now saying that the role doesn't have a name. Do I have that correct?

Helz wrote:

I do not know what you are smoking but I never claimed anything else to Thoth. I thought I flatly claimed my flavor. If I am wrong there I am wrong but there is not contradiction where I claimed something else to Thoth

Thoth said in post #76:

Helz did not claim Nitrogen in our chat.

Is this your first time character claiming even inside of your chat, or did you claim something else there? Which is it? Because Thoth is saying he'll confirm what you say. Did you wait until this DP to claim your character anywhere at all, which is a baffling choice when you were townreading Thoth, or did you claim something different?

Im not even seeing a question here. Just an accusation that I said something I never did based upon a bad assumption.

I can only post the same thing so many times. You can either choose to read it and respond, or you can refuse. It's not an accusation, I'm explaining why your night action does not make sense based on the available information we have. Make it make sense.

I really do think your town and you are totally fucking the town turning your brain off and going off your gut feelings here.

If you think this is gut feelings, then you seriously aren't reading.

What are you even talking about the lack of discussion about the mechanics of my night actions? I have been super clear. There has been no ambiguity and I do not understand what you are even thinking about there.

See below. I've tagged you in two separate posts about it.

And I did full claim. Im sorry that the majority of the entire global mafia community does not make flavor AI and I brush it off. I still really do think I claimed my flavor and I do not even understand why you are being weird about the term 'full claim' given that you should recognize that. I gave every detail about my role and thats a 'full claim' in almost every site on the planet but here apparently even before considering how much I disregard flavor.

This is the most absurd part of your entire argument since I have literally never sussed you or anyone else in this game based on flavor. No one has said there's something wrong with you claiming Nitrogen except Thoth, since you apparently claimed something else to him, and he somehow townreads you anyway. The idea that we're throwing the book at you over flavor is such an absurd strawman.

Really think about this. Why would I make such a stupid lie if I was scum? What possible sense does it make?

I won't pretend to know or try to interpret how you thought this role claim would work in your favor. It's baffling, but if you thought you could sell multiple redirection roles being in the game for long enough, absolutely it could work. It's the reason I'm only getting into so much of how it works now.

Name one thing I have not responded to? A single thing

Post #89. Separated the specific points out for your reading pleasure from post #71.

Shining wrote:

Wake me up when you want to end this bro.

You can go ahead and vote, dude. I'm down to explore this to whatever extent I can with regards to Thoth, but Helz is the obvious lynch.

Helz wrote:

Kill me if you want. We are in absolute Lylo from everything I see but the game will be on you.

Lol, if you think this is on us at this point, then we've gone into seriously ridiculous territory at this point. I've made the case extensively for why I don't trust your claim. You've been almost entirely unresponsive. I've even held off on actually putting down a vote and have told others to hold off. But no, this is clearly on everyone but you.

Helz wrote:

I figure the town is about to throw it. There is no possible reason on the planet I would claim something that looks so bad if I was scum. Or why I would reveal such information in a side chat. Its just absurd. So I think this is the play-

VTL: Bullish

Its absolutely Bullish and Shining. The game is totally locked up. Do not over complicate it obsessing over details and ignoring the obvious basic things in front of you

Dude, if you expect us to buy what you're selling, you'd be a lot more engaged with the points we're making. The lack of discussion about the mechanics of your night actions, the inconsistencies in your statement that you'd full claimed, the decision to claim something different in chat with Thoth... what should we be buying here, exactly? That you're behaviorally town? I'll give you that you've looked good since the start of the game, but this is ridiculous.

So let's talk mech.

Back in DP1, you said this:

Kohai should not be dead. I figured I am basically the town protective on crack. Every role to include killing roles should have been neutralized that visited Kohai last night. My best guess is that I was redirected or they were swapped before my action hit. We do not have a formal OoO to work with which makes it more difficult to figure out but host did confirm to me that I stop normal killing roles. Figured Mags function would have been an exception but unless Mafia has some strongman or equal role to what Mag did its simply a redirect that happened.

This yields two separate problems:

First, we know I was the target of the Redirector NP1. We know I was Redirected by Mikal to Shining. You can't have been Mikal's target. Then, you claim that you targeted me NP2. Despite all that, you've been solid townreading me since pretty early in this game. Did you think there was another scum redirection role? That's the only way that your explanation works. Or have you come up with a different means by which you could fail to protect Kohai NP1 with your role?

Second, Bullish says he also targeted me the following DP and got a result that there was no movement. You didn't question it or say anything about it. It's a lesser concern, but I can't say I get why this wasn't a big problem for you. Mikal made the same lapse.

Looking for a response to what I posted here in #71. If your night actions happened as you said, explain the above.

While you're at it, explain why you claimed something different than Nitrogen to Thoth in chat, apparently.

Helz wrote:

I would also point out what scum would ever discourage a town player from sheeping their vote? D3 #178 Thoth flatly offered to follow my lead and vote where I do and I asked that instead they triangulate with me and voice their own thoughts. Why would I ever reject such an offer?

Like, What possible reason could I have as scum to not just take that and run with it? By default if I was scum and had 1 town vote I could control +2 team mates I would have had a majority yesterday. Basic math. Its not even possible for me to be scum considering that and yet the town is blindly marching down this stupid path and ignoring any reasoning.

Lot of WIFOM here, and not even the good kind. Refusing to have Thoth sheep your vote isn't going to earn you any towncred, definitely not from me. It's not unusual for anyone, much less scum, to outright refuse to let a player just sheep them when they can see a lot of opportunities for mislynches on the table anyway. There might have been value in it, but not enough to make this objectively townie.

So this is an issue I have. Scum and town alike get this bolded "Therefore you are XXXX" with a role name. I do not have that. I was told I vaporize everything that comes to the person I visit and I neutralize everything.

I also voiced this to Thoth in our chat.

So you are the only person in this game who doesn't have a named role? Every single flip, every single claim beyond yours has a name, but you're the only one that's different. No justification, either. Are we just doing this on faith now?

Thoth wrote:

whiteflame wrote:

So because Helz saw through the bluff, you straight townread him? Am I reading this right?

No, not quite. I'm townreading Helz because I can't really imagine that he would have seen through it if he were scum. I was cagey about revealing this because I wanted to save the, “I’m a winshare neutral, please cooperate with me”, bait for future games.

I think you're overestimating your ability to draw others into your bluff, man. I understand wanting to believe that what you did here was proof positive, but it's not that good of a bluff and it's easy enough for someone to see through. If I was in there, I wouldn't have bought it.

OK. What did he claim? Character, role and any justification you received. Why are you being so cagey about giving this stuff out?

Helz should claim that first and then I confirm.

I really don't like this. You were outright willing to claim your role. Why are you so skittish about a claim from Helz who either lied to you or lied to us?

Shining wrote:

Okay, so can we lynch Helz now?

I’d prefer to get what info we can from Thoth first.

I really am trying to put together Thoth's thinking. I get townreading a person who you spend a lot of time in chat with. I did that. The kind of absolute townread that Thoth is giving Helz, though, that's beyond me. Setting him "completely off the table" is something I can't fathom.

Thoth wrote:

Not sure what the thinking is here, but I'll cover Thoth when he specifies what's informing his read.

I told Helz that I could winshare with scum if they killed me before DP4 and was willing to cooperate. He declined.

So because Helz saw through the bluff, you straight townread him? Am I reading this right?

Helz did not claim Nitrogen in our chat.

OK. What did he claim? Character, role and any justification you received. Why are you being so cagey about giving this stuff out?

While we're at it, something else is still bothering me. You've now said your character is Nitrogen. Great. What's your role called? You've only referred to what it does. What is it called in your PM?

So, I am not gona dig through my own ISO to figure out where I claimed. I really thought I did. Maybe I just remembered wrong and did not. I have been avoiding flavor everything like the plague this game.

If you happen to find it, great. Avoiding flavor analysis is a choice that's NAI as well, doesn't help me read you.

I duno about how my views line up with Mikals but my main concern about Bullish is that their reads do not match their reasoning. Scum has to fake their reasoning. They have to gauge how strongly to convey "I think this person is town/scum" while town has actual reasoning that can be followed. I am struggling to see that in them. They have absolute certainty about alignments and end up correct but they can not explain why they had such certainty.

Feel free to read back through Mikal's publicly stated reasoning for sussing Bullish. He regularly calls out inconsistencies in his behavior within the game and between games, the former of which is what you're doing. Calling out the certainty in his approach is distinct, I'll give you that much, it's just not a very strong reason for me to sus him. Bullish is... well, bullish about his beliefs. I've flagged it, but it's not enough by itself.

And right now just look at their position. They claim to have mech certainty that Shining did not move yet they shove them. Now they voice they hard town read you and yet they are demanding answers and now shoving you. There is no logical progression. There is no thought process I see to understand how they jumped from what they thought to their conclusion. Its inconsistent and the reasoning they state just looks like scum faking positions.

Yeah, flagged that, too. If he was pushing Shining's lynch this DP, then we'd have a problem, but I understand his POE regardless. It's not how I'd do it, but I get it. And no, he's not shoving me. Asking questions about what went on in the chat with Mikal is townie to me, that's entirely logical.

Duno whats AI about me being frustrated but really, there is no reason for me to lie about something that people could confirm. That would be pretty stupid. I am human and I do make mistakes. Earlier this game I remembered something wrong and just owned it when I realized I remembered it wrong. If you have any questions for me let me know but from where I sit it looks like Bullish is a bus happy Mafia who just shoves their team mates in ways that look bad. They know they could win today so now they are shoving Shining and looking for an out (which appears to be you or me)

So let's talk mech.

Back in DP1, you said this:

Kohai should not be dead. I figured I am basically the town protective on crack. Every role to include killing roles should have been neutralized that visited Kohai last night. My best guess is that I was redirected or they were swapped before my action hit. We do not have a formal OoO to work with which makes it more difficult to figure out but host did confirm to me that I stop normal killing roles. Figured Mags function would have been an exception but unless Mafia has some strongman or equal role to what Mag did its simply a redirect that happened.

This yields two separate problems:

First, we know I was the target of the Redirector NP1. We know I was Redirected by Mikal to Shining. You can't have been Mikal's target. Then, you claim that you targeted me NP2. Despite all that, you've been solid townreading me since pretty early in this game. Did you think there was another scum redirection role? That's the only way that your explanation works. Or have you come up with a different means by which you could fail to protect Kohai NP1 with your role?

Second, Bullish says he also targeted me the following DP and got a result that there was no movement. You didn't question it or say anything about it. It's a lesser concern, but I can't say I get why this wasn't a big problem for you. Mikal made the same lapse.

I will also say ask the host. Banana's dream was randomized 100% and it had a 'minimum' of 1 scum in it. Ask them the question and verify my words here.

I know it's possible, yes. The question came up earlier. That's why I haven't entirely eliminated Bullish as a scum concern.

When you get done getting that info ask what you would do as scum if you were Bullish/Mikal in such a pool. Maybe bus? Just maybe?

As Bullish reflected absurd certainty that Mikal was scum in ways they could not explain and also expressing absurd certainty that Casey was town in ways they could not explain? Thats TMI. Just look at it.

So because Bullish might bus given the circumstances, that's a strong reason to sus him? Pretty straightforward WIFOM, but it's something I'd considered, yes.

Bullish wrote:

I just took a nap btw and it was revealed to me in a dream that whiteflame is scum.

Man, you gotta stop dreaming about Mafia.

Bullish wrote:

You shoulda let Shining keep his bus vote on Helz, now that Thoth has revealed his hand.

Not sure what the thinking is here, but I'll cover Thoth when he specifies what's informing his read.

Thoth wrote:

I will add more later tonight (although I admit to not having delivered every time I've said that), but for now I'm just going to say that, if Helz flips scum here, he is the most devious and mind-reading motherfucker to ever mafiate. He is completely off the table from my perspective.

I asked you for a reason why he's off the table for you. Why do you townread Helz so solidly? What did he say to you that made you townlock him? Be specific. Don't generalize about deviousness or "mind-reading," it doesn't help any of us understand your thinking.

Helz wrote:

Duno what everyone is getting worked up about. Im like 95% sure I claimed Nitrogen when I first revealed. And I have absolutely full claimed my role.

You've stated several times that you've full claimed in response to requests for your claim. If you're so sure you did, link to the posts. I've done a Ctrl+F for "Nitrogen" and unless you misspelled it somewhere, I don't see it. Also, if you named your role anywhere or specified its specific mode of action beyond "it prevents everything," show me.

Thoth can verify I even told them without being asked that I was a 2 shot which I would have no reason to reveal if I was scum. I bet not a single one of you even bothered to read through my ISO. Not that I blame you. I have zero interest in looking at it myself to see where I voiced that but its really weird I am being painted like I have been any sort of secretive about my claim this game. If anything I claimed my role too early

I don't doubt that you told Thoth... in DP3 where you had the opportunity to do so after virtually everyone had claimed, so that's not doing you a lot of favors. Believe me, though, I've re-read your ISO a few times searching for your claim. It's been really annoying.

People should re-read Bullish's comments just today. Not even ISO them. Just read what they are saying today. Its a really weird progression.

From being open minded to being emotional and insulting to Shoving a PoE with some half ass wagonomics shoving the person they know did not visit is scum then directly into questioning the person they say they town read (WF)

Yeah, I'm keeping an eye on him too, but "being emotion and insulting" is not unusual for him and you're pushing the same behavioral read on him that Mikal did, so that's not a good look. I'd be much more sus of him if he didn't question me.

So I am gona bitch for a second. Why would I make up such an absolutely verifiable lie that I said my flavor? This is why I hate that flavor is even a factor. Use your brains for half a second and recognize that absolutely everyone has claimed theirs so I could claim anything on the periodic table if I wanted to. What possible reason would I have for making that up especially if I was scum? If anything I would be super careful about making such claims and not just volunteer my role and details about my role when I am not even pressured. If you want to look at meta look at my first game here where I just shrugged about flavor and claimed my name for absolutely no reason as town. I do not care about it and do not want it taking up space in my head. I personally dislike that its being dragged into a mafia game at all and I said so before this game even started and I had a role or alignment.

Honestly? I don't know. Why would you lie about claiming publicly as town or scum? You might do so just to push attention elsewhere when the opportunity presents itself, but you'd have to know it would eventually come back to you. At best, that's NAI. It's not the main reason I'm sussing you, so the frustration is just a bonus.

Shining wrote:

I'll just point out Helz never claimed anything publicly.

Yeah, I think we’ve got 3 independent verifications of that. So Helz lied about having full claimed publicly.

Shining wrote:

Mikal was going to be lynched last DP. He just death by Pie'd himself for God knows why. Kinda expecting Helz to get modkilled as well.

@Helz

VTL: Helz

On that subject, fullclaim please.

Seriously, remove the vote. At least wait to vote until we’re all on the same page, and I want the insight from Thoth here.

Come to think of it, I haven’t really considered why I was Redirected to Shining, specifically, nor why Mikal was so dead set on selling the Bus Driver narrative. The latter maybe because more focus on a Redirector specifically would have implicated him, but it’s still odd.

Bullish wrote:

whiteflame wrote:

Much as I'm looking at them as a plausible scum pair at the moment, I have to ask: does the lack of movement from Shining last NP make you question that scumread at all, especially given that we know they didn't have a Redirector in play at that point? I guess a Ninja could explain it or simply that Shining did nothing and his partner carried out the kill, but I'm surprised not to see anything about that in this post.

I almost waived my action because I thought I was dead. But then I considered it. I thought if we assumed a shing/helz scum team, it would have been 50/50 if scum used shining or helz to do the NK, and another maybe 25/75 for the other scum to use their remaining active role. So 3/8 chance shining doesn't move even if he is scum. These are not outlandish odds but it did give me pause.

Alright, I get the thinking anyway. Always possible they chose to reduce their night actions or ran out, given that no one got Vanillaized.

Bullish wrote:

Just go off the top of your head. I don't want to read more than 5 sentences. I'm interested in his full plan to "solve" regarding casey, your response to it, and his private reads. I'm not interested in his claim, his professed claim behaviour is consistent with gambit mikal.

His plan was basically what I communicated here: to lynch Casey, then upon verification of their role, lynch you.

I said I understood the desire to figure out if the Dream was real, but as I said both publicly and in that chat, I disagreed with placing Casey as the priority lynch and figured it was basically between you and Mikal.

In terms of private reads, he didn’t give much insight outside of you, Casey, Thoth and Luna. For Thoth, he said he was scumreading him pretty early after we got into the results of my night action NP1, had some light susses of him elsewhere. He pointed to weird vibes from Luna (this was before he imploded), but didn’t want to push him. He didn’t get into Shining beyond saying it was odd I’d been Redirected to him, pointing out that he was a strange target and that a Vanillaizer likely wouldn’t have hit him.

That’s about it.

Bullish wrote:

I mentioned yesterday from my POV, whiteflame and Thoth are town, which leaves only Helz and Shining in the PoE. Whiteflame is soft cleared, because he did not move on NP2, which means he could not have done any redirection, visit the dreamer, or perform the NK. Thoth SOP claimed early, and his reluctance to claim soldier is also town motivated. He is also thematically town, because he has claimed an element from the noble gasses column, and both other noble gasses flipped town.

======

The casey wagon DP3 is the single most important point of analysis in my opinion.

Casey_Risk (5/5): Helz (p#188), Thoth (p#192), Shining (p#200), Mikal (p#209), Mag1cman (p#218)

Mikal and Magic have flipped. Thoth was sheeping Helz (poor decision). That leaves Helz and Shining.

======

All remaining 4 players other than myself at some point agreed with or pushed Mikal's absurd and anti-town plan to lynch casey. Helz was the strongest of these. Shing also agreed. Thoth flip flopped. Whiteflame is ambiguous because I only recall mikal claiming that whiteflame "agreed" with him their neighbor chat.

All signs point to Helz and Shining scum team.

Much as I'm looking at them as a plausible scum pair at the moment, I have to ask: does the lack of movement from Shining last NP make you question that scumread at all, especially given that we know they didn't have a Redirector in play at that point? I guess a Ninja could explain it or simply that Shining did nothing and his partner carried out the kill, but I'm surprised not to see anything about that in this post.

Bullish wrote:

Can you summarize what mikal said to you in your neighbor's chat, and what your responses were?

It's going to take a while to go through it, but I can work on that this evening.

Shining wrote:

Mikal was going to be lynched last DP. He just death by Pie'd himself for God knows why. Kinda expecting Helz to get modkilled as well.

@Helz

VTL: Helz

On that subject, fullclaim please.

Much as I do have plenty of issues with Helz atm, please remove your vote on the off chance that we're wrong and scum quick hammers this.

Bullish wrote:

whiteflame wrote:

You're welcome to come in here and gloat about Mikal, but I'm mainly interested in your reads at this point (do you still think it's Shining and Helz?), as well as any info we can glean from your role.

Yeah don't mind if I do. Yall couldn't even lynch him, he had to modkill himself.

Spent the vast majority of the last DP saying he was my preferred lynch, so whatever man. I'll fully admit I came to it late.

Bullish wrote:

whiteflame wrote:

I encourage anyone to try to find where Helz character claimed because I am lost.

Don't bother, he did not. He's doing the explicitly anti-town thing where he refuses to participate in a certain aspect.

Helz, I don't recall seeing you lynch scum very often. You need all the help you can get.

Then the fact that he's been persistent in saying that he full claimed at some point in this game is a problem. Refusing to participate is one thing. Outright lying about what he's actually done is another.