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Lunatic

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Lunatic
I have a hard time believing that Sung Jin-woo is a full-on third party. At worst, I'd say it's likely they have options for achieving their wincon, though those still almost certainly overlap with town. I agree that he changes over the course of the series and even with the sociopath label, but as Mestari already mentioned, he's instrumental for making this raid on Jeju Island successful in the end.

I thought the jeju island participation in the end was even for self purposes both for the power increase and because if the ants spread to the city his own family is at risk. I wonder if he genuinely gives a shit about most people. Kind of like Dexter cares for people who is close to him only really, anyone else can get fucked.



Lunatic

Dead


Thoth- Red Ant- Roleblocker (Lynched dp1)



Claims list


Lunatic- Baek Yoonho- ??? - Guild leader- recruited helz, rex np0. helz declined (Post 25, dp1)

Wylted- Choi Jong-in- ???- Guild leader Recuited lunatic and one other np0. (Post 77, dp1)

Helz- Yoo Jinho- ??? (Post 574, dp1)

Kohai- Kohai - Ascetic (Post 197, dp1)

Alyssa- Go Gunhee- Widely admired, Rally The Hunters (Post 14, dp2)


Unclaimed


Whiteflame

Banana

iLikePie5

Mag1cMan (Poisoned np1)

Wryly

RexFavilla

Vader

Awesome5000

Casey_Risk

Mestari

Shining


Lunatic
Fuck it, I'll divulge anyway. Mafia and 3P being given fake claims makes any real character claim inherently suspect. Moreover, we started with 4 mafia and 12-13 town. 2 town were confirmed as main characters. That leaves 10-11 town. For the guild mechanic to make sense, quite a few players would have to need to be recruited to use their abilities. I wager that at least 8 of those 10-11 players are player characters. That still leaves less than half the game as properly benefitting from the recruitment mechanic. I think there's only 2-3 townies outside of Lunatic and Wylted that have story characters.

Maybe. I would be suspect of player characters more so because I feel like they are easier to fake claim, since the mod said they were confirmed to exist. But both thoth and alyssa have claimed actual characters, so yeah theres something to mafia having fake claims for sure assuming alyssa also flips scum. There is a decent chance they used all of them by this point, 4 fake claims seems like a lot. I can see 2 being realistic. I also theorized that the player characters were added in after mikal balanced this. He was initially telling me he wanted 13 players, and we ended up getting another 4 after that. Makes me wonder if the 4 added after were all just player characters.

Lunatic
I haven't figured out why Mikal posted the mid day flavor yet, but I also don't care to read into it too much. Jinwoo did explicitly refuse to join the raid. The viewers, us, knew he would be needed for the raid to succeed. I don't see anything big here. I'm not readily going to believe that the mod just decided that he was going to out 3P in the same game that he confirmed 2 town. The game design can only get so town-sided.

I mean even ignoring the mod posts, Jin Woo to me just seems like the perfect third party. As the show goes on and as his powers developed, he seemed to me as if he was growing more and more of a sociopath. Seems to not really connect to anyone and allies only with people who bring direct value to himself. Never really makes an attempt to get with Lee Johee who makes it obvious she wants to date him, even when he was an E rank. He cares about his sister and his mom, and Yoo Jinhoo to an extent but that's about it. He seems to lose more and more of his personality as the show progresses, and ultimately I get the vibe that he's taking on dungeons and monsters purely for the sake of getting more powerful. Like if I was designing this game it would take a lot of weird reasoning to not make this character third party.



Lunatic
My problem with that is that Thoth focus all his attention to Whiteflame versus the other players that were targeting him arguable harder. I don’t want to say it’s fabricated and I also don’t know how Thoth plays, but I wouldn’t put it past either of them to try to bus each other to build whiteflame’s cred.

Maybe, it just seems a little obvious if it was a bus. Thoth knew he was dead at that point, so anything he said towards the end was said to serve a purpose to his team. He was trying to shove the narrative that he was anti-whiteflame, most likely to specifically encourage this line of thinking. Could be wrong.

Lunatic
On that note, where is the most recent claims list? I have had an understanding of the game's structure that I have been holding back because I didn't think there was enough info to explain it yet. I forgot someone claimed the rich kid. At this point there might be enough openly available information to elucidate.

I can work on a claims list, I haven't really been keeping track this game because it's been struggle enough to stay caught up. And laziness I guess. Helz claimed Yoo Jinho iirc.

Lunatic

Okay I can see that, I've seen the show and remember that, but why would they be saying this like "And yet… the world looks toward one man, the one hunter who could change everything. But he refuses. He has no desire to join the raid. No desire to work with any guild. And when you hold that kind of power… why would you?"


This sounds like it's either from newscaster perspective or a mod perspective, if its the former I wonder why they make a big deal out of it, Jin Woo was only rising to slight popularity at this point and really mostly known by the guild leaders, would the world and people even know him enough to care that he wasn't there among the S classes? If it's the latter why mention this at all, and why mid day phase randomly? It seemed triggered by a decision or action. Otherwise he's just randomly repeating the plot for seemingly no reason. OP narratives generally indicate some sort of event happening in the game historically, then again its been awhile since I've even seen one of these done.

Lunatic
If the factional kill is poison, then a N1 kill was not denied, just delayed. But even then, telling the town that there would not be a N1 kill helps the town. What's the missing puzzle piece?


I've thought about this too, but I guess if there is second poison and a night kill tonight that will answer some questions, not all of them.

Lunatic
My theory has been that the snake boss is the poisoner and they are 3p because the snake has nothing to do with Jeju Island. In that scenario, there's no way the snake wins with the town.

The DP1 post heavily implies Jin Woo is in the game, and likely third party. It's further perpetuated in the DP2 OP "And as they gather, the silence left behind by the strongest among them grows louder. We relied on him. We trusted him. And now… he’s gone."


There's a chance mafia have a role that lets them write this, but if we are assuming that its from mikal, I'd say Jin Woo is 3p or there is 2 third parties.

Lunatic

If magic is town, there is a good basis to assume 3p is a poisoner of some sort. In which case I echo why mag1c was targeted over say someone like you me or wylted. I don't think mag1c ever hinted being a PR or something. Maybe they aren't really "against" town, so much as just wanting to feel things out and play middle of the lane and see where things go, because killing one of us three would have benefited mafia more than a poison on mag1c. It might be possible to reason with the third party and get them to out and have them work with us. As opposed to trying to do this the hard way and lynch 3p outright, when we have no idea who they are. Publicly discussing killing them also makes them more likely to scum side.

Lunatic
That's exactly what I mean. She never said recruitment was mentioned in her role pm.


Why would she mention it at all is my point?


We both think Alyssa is scum, independent of how either one of us values the new D2 analysis.

There's much more that goes into the scum read on her, from dp1 and 2, I don't remember everything I discuss in the mason pm and here though, so theres a chance I voiced more of my scum read on her in the masons. It wasn't purely based on the slip regardless.


I'm more interested in hearing your thoughts on my position WRT airmax/awesome, Helz, and shining/vader



So for the airmax/awesome thing it seems your point seems to stem from some mod OGI and factoring it into a reason for why alyssa is demoralized? It's possible. I don't know if it's the most solid analysis ever to indicate they are scum but it's not like bad either. Alyssa has plenty to be demoralized about after thoth tied them together dp1 though, and you can tell she certainly entered the day phase thinking she was cooked based on her entry and her early claim before even feeling out the day phase. Airmax being scum could have something to do with that but its a shot in the dark. Either way that slot hasn't really given me a lot of reason to town read it yet, so I don't entirely disagree.


As far as Helz goes, you say he is present without being meaningful. I am not so sure I see that personally. I do find myself skimming past a lot of his writing because I feel he has a tendency to overthink things a lot and has some paranoias in general that I just don't share, but he has made a few points that make me think he is there. I think he was one of the early adopters of the Alyssa scum read for entirely independent reasons of "the fear kill" thing too, so if she flips scum that will also look good for him. I think at best we can probably think he is third party based on the things he has said and done, but I am just not sure mafia skips on the mason invite even for town cred. This slot at minimum feels like they are posting every stream of thought that enters their head, which is something I would expect town to do more than mafia. Especially after thoth's blunder dp1. His posts aren't coming off as planned and calculated, it sounds like he is being wary of major lynch trains, and even seemed to doubt the thoth lynch when there was massive support for it despite coming around to it at the end. I just think this guy bleeds town.


I see you have concluded that helz is likely TP. That part I can kind of see. TP basically gets a free pass to act as they would as town, and it would kind of explain ignoring the invite. I am just having a hard time feeling like I should care. I kind of hate TP's because hunting them means you have kind of stop worrying about scum, which is ultimately the point of the game. I asked my masons what their thoughts on this were, and they were pretty explicitly "anti-third party" in this situation because mikals posts heavily indicates they have no interest in siding with or winning with the town. So if its popular opinion that we should prioritize lynching TP, I can get behind it. I would probably like a bit more evidence on helz either behaviorally or mechanically to jump to that conclusion but he has given plenty of signs of being TP, primarily ignoring a guild invite, so I see where you and others have been coming from in that assumption.


Shining, I keep seeing you put him in your POE but I did a cntrl+F to find your reasoning and wasn't finding much. I am assuming its just based on inactivity/lack of contribution, which isn't out of character for shining as either affiliation. He's a lazy player who tends to put low effort into his posts. Usually his contributions amount to being contrarian to whatever he thinks town is doing that is incredibly bad, and then he dis-appears. We probably should lock him into a claim early next day phase, or put pressure on him to give us literally anything, though again knowing him, I wouldn't expect much.


On vader all I can really deduce about your scum read on him is that his opening post seemed fake, and that he could have told thoth you were a fear kill. I guess its possible, but yeah he is still in the POE so we need something more from him than what we have. I don't have a strong feeling about him either way yet. His paranoia about whiteflame is interesting, because I got the vibe that whiteflame was being set up as a mislynch by thoth at the EOD1 because he was acting like whiteflame was scummiest player on his wagon ever, accusing him of tunneling him harder than anyone else etc. That seemed weird as fuck. It seems like too obvious of a distancing play if they are actually scum together, so it seemed likely reverse psychology to set up whiteflame as a mislynch. So I told myself going into the day phase I would be a little sus of anyone pushing whiteflame. But I realize that's also a weak arugment and based on a lot of what ifs, so its not damning by any measure.



Lunatic
I'm honestly confused as to how people don't read the mechanics of the game. The idea that Alyssa being and to use powers without being recruited is a scum slip would feel super scum motivated as a push if it weren't for the fact that it's two confirmed townie pushing it. @Lunatic, @wylted, do better.

What do you mean "do better"? It at bare minimum is a slip. You can't even dispute that. You could say that it was a town slip, but not even alyssa made that argument for herself. If she doesn't require a recruitment mechanic why was recruitment even mentioned in her role pm? She didn't even try saying that part was a mess up or anything just instantly jumped to us not being grounded in reality and saying that if we weren't town confirmed she would be pushing us lol.

Lunatic
Is the other person who you recruited Town to you?

I feel good about my mason PM but I’m not confirming that I didn’t forfeit the recruit to use the guild ability or to activate roles

Lunatic
Yall know Alyssa the best. How are her fake claiming skills?

I dont remember honestly but I’ve played a ton of games with her old zaradi account. They were a long time ago though so I assume she is a different player now. As we all are



Lunatic
Okay, you guys are scumreading the self-vote hard and I'm kind of lost. Is it a thing that town never self-votes but scum do?

Depends on the player and circumstances. When mharman did it there was a lot of build up and back and forth. There was barely any with Alyssa, she went 0-100 real quick.

Lunatic

I think at the very least if mass claim is u popular I think we get claims from awesome, shining and banana at the very least. Maybe Vader. But these are the most inactive slots. Might be good to lock them in so we aren’t constantly worried about scum skating under the radar

Lunatic

So something I brought up in my mason Pm is the idea of pushing a mass claim in dp3.


We already have a decent head start after Thoth, if Alyssa is scum it s a very good start. At this point to me the risk/benefit of this leans towards benefit. As of right now we have no reason to assume mafia can kill more than once per night phase, so at best they can take out one power role that night. If there is a town vig it will help them know who not to kill going forward. And lastly it can help us narrow down third party. To be clear I don’t care about hunting third party too much if it detracts from hunting scum but my guild doesn’t feel the same way understandably.


Especially after the third party apparently chose not to win with town. So without behavioral analysis to link them to Thoth or Alyssa (they can literally just play how they would as town and we wouldn’t know) the best way to nail third party would be to use mech analysis. Getting claims can help us narrow down which claims are less likely to exist versus which claims are mostly likely to be in the game.


One of my guild mates is strongly against a mass claim and I get there reasons for it. But I figured this would be worthwhile to discuss with the rest of town. And gather some opinions on.

Lunatic

Gotta say, don’t love how your only contribution was to provide and out for Alyssa. Who do you think is scum and why?

Lunatic

Okay I would love to hear you thoughts maybe an extensive read list. Don’t have much to read you on atm

Lunatic
Your obsession with me is totes adorbs. Unfortunately I am taken

Didn't you use this line on someone in a recent game lol everyone who suspects you has a gay fetish for you mate, you got em.

Lunatic

The most revealing thing about this whole thing is Alyssa's self vote. Town should never do that. Frustrated scum do that. Alyssa is experienced to know that you fight tooth and nail as town, otherwise it's a game throwing tantrum. It's also telling that on her entry into the day phase she immediately claimed expecting heavy FOS based on suspicions from last day phase. She didn't wait to feel out the room or see if people were going to continue pressure from last day phase. This indicates she went into the night phase knowing thoth's flip wouldn't go well for her and prepared for the day phase with that in mind. Granted I know it's possible for town to panic like this, I would expect this behavior from certain players, but not experiences ones like alyssa. I know if Pie is in this situation he fights it tooth and nail if he's town and lays out a case for him being town and claims only when it seems thats the only route. Maybe I am wrong here, or overestimating what I think what a town Alyssa would do here. But I don't think so.

Lunatic
Did you say "one of your abilities activates upon recruitment" like lunatics screenshot shows?


This ^ I don't know why you are acting like you don't understand where this argument is coming from lol