Originally Posted by JenKiggans2026 on 9/21/2026 at 6:06 PM (post #171)
Impressive detecting. I've always been really good at mafia irl but this being my first time playing it online it's proving to be difficult because I can't watch people's posture, follow their eyes, listen to their tone, etc. I might be a useless member of this round because I'm still trying to get used to it, sorry
So, you've been lurking the whole game?
Originally Posted by Lunatic on 9/21/2026 at 4:25 PM (post #168)
I want to go back to magic because the more I look at his game, the more I don't really like what he's doing.
I don't think there's one huge smoking gun here, but his overall progression feels really safe. He's got a lot of thoughts and a lot of possibilities, but he doesn't seem to actually want to lock himself into anything until he knows where the game is going.The Pie/Kohai stuff is probably the biggest example of this.
Brother, half the people in this game haven't posted much at all. Of course, the reads are going to be early, and of course there are a lot of possibilities.
Magic starts out with:
"If I were to suspect two players based on what I've seen so far, it would be Pie + Kohai again"
Which is a pretty convenient spot to be in. Those are already the two people involved in the main conflict, so magic gets to have both of them as potential scum without really having to pick one.
Then he votes Pie to get a claim, spends a decent amount of time entertaining Pie as a possible scumread, and then suddenly gets to:
"Pie - solid town"
And honestly, I don't really buy the reasoning for that switch.It's basically just "I went back and reread it and nothing really struck me as off anymore." That's not really a strong reason to go from voting someone and wanting their claim to calling them solid town. And then what happens? Kohai becomes the obvious person to focus on. That's what I don't like about the progression. It feels less like magic is actually solving the Pie/Kohai situation and more like he's keeping both sides available so that he can move onto whichever one becomes easier to push. The claim stuff also bothers me. Magic keeps wanting claims from people, but the setup specifically tells us scum can fake one role/character claim. So I'm not sure why getting a claim is being treated as some kind of major way to resolve these reads. It feels more like a reason to put pressure on someone than an actual method of figuring out their alignment.
Pre-lock-in vs post-lock-in Mag1c will have different reads. The more I read Pie the second time around, the more I realized I had started with a bad confirmation bias on him. And so I flipped the read.
I also think his read on Thoth is worth looking at. Magic has Thoth as a pretty strong townread largely because of the role PM stuff, but we've already seen that the PM information itself isn't necessarily reliable. So I don't really understand why that should carry as much weight as it does.
You'd have to assume he'd have a claim ready that early. Maybe scum were given a full claim, maybe they were given a character, maybe a role. We don't know, but it is obvious that his soft draws a lot of attention to himself. "My role PM contradicts something in the OP"... just isn't what scum says.
And then there's me.Magic's read on me is basically just "not enough on Lunatic" / "need to see more from Lunatic," and eventually I'm sitting in the same general pool as Kohai and Jen. But I don't feel like magic has actually tried to solve me. He's mostly just left me as a possible suspect because he hasn't decided what to do with me yet. That's the part that keeps bothering me. I'm not saying magic can't have wrong reads. Obviously he can. I'm saying his reads seem very easy to change depending on where the game is going. If Pie is scum, he can point back to all the times he suspected Pie.
I don't know what to do with you yet because I you've done a couple things that could be scummy and couple things that could be towny. I'm not swayed one way or the other on you yet. Not that deep.
If Pie is town, he's already moved away from that and can point to the fact that he reconsidered.
If Kohai is scum, he's got the Kohai suspicion ready.
And if Kohai is town, well, he was only a "tossup" for most of the game anyway.
There's not much risk in any of these positions.
Any bad townread, I'd argue is risky for me. Riskiest one is clearly Thoth based on you sussing that one. And you're ignoring that I've already put scumreads on Vader and Whiteflame.
That's what makes me uncomfortable with him. I expect town to eventually have to put themselves out there a little bit and say "this is the world I think we're in, and here's why."
Magic seems to be doing the opposite. He's keeping multiple worlds open and letting the game tell him which one is safest to pursue.
Maybe I'm wrong on that, but that's the thing I'd want magic to actually answer.
Because right now I don't really feel like I'm seeing someone trying to solve the game. I'm seeing someone trying to make sure he has a reason for whichever way the game ends up going.
VTL Magic
Yeah, this is not a genuine case at all. I might vote you.
why did I have 9/21 in my head?????
ok but that's where I'm at rn. Looking for a response from Pie on #156
tomorrow we should get Pie's claim, jenkiggan's claim, and whoever we sus beyond that. Moving Pie back to tossup, maybe even solid scum... eh, tossup for now. He needs to be solved I think.
Well with that logic we wouldn’t ask for claims at all right? No idea is that let’s say he is scum, he uses the fake character claim. He still has to provide justification and the fake role. Thats where they get caught.
wait, how do you know it's a fake character claim?
Scum slip?
DP over. no hammer.
admittedly i don't like how Pie disappeared for the end of this DP when it looked like he was going to be here for it
downgrading Pie to slight town tbh
2:06 PM
It's a no-lynch. :(
Top theory is Whiteflame-Vader atm. Lunatic, Kohai, and JenKiggans floating around. There's still a world in which Banana, Thoth, and Pie are scum, none are lock town imo.
If I were to rank
Banana
Thoth
Pie
---------------------
Kohai
Lunatic
JenKiggans26
----------------------
Whiteflame
Vader
Lunatic - tossup
Don't like him not voting anyone for pressure this late. He's not really on top of anyone either, with is a scum tell of his. One thing though: His t/t t/m assessment of Pie v Kohai goes against the grain of what I'd think scum Lunatic would do... which is to take some shots and let town destroy each other on Kohai/Pie... unless he is paired with one of the two.
JenKiggans26 -null
Inactive. Will probably have to lynch here just so the inactive doesn't drag us down all game long. But we probably won't get it off, sadly.
Banana - solid town
Enters the thread with some big reads, and asks quastions to both Pie and KOhai. They're interesting questions too so I can tell she's trying to confirm her thoughts on them. The approach is very towny.
VAder- slight scum
I don't see the same vibes I did upon reading him ealier. Just giving thoughts, I don't like the lack of voting on Pie or Kohai on the second day of a day phase. Flipping to him to scumread bc he has no reason togive those thoughts and not vote someone.
WHiteflame - slight scum
Flipping this one as well. Don't like how he's not trying to read any behavior. The oppenness while softing is appreciated but not inherently towny given scum has a fake claim. Softing here can help scum figure characters out... beyond that's it's the entirety of Whiteflame's focus so it fells like fak contribution.
this is porbably a no-lynch, rip
hmmm I could go for Kohai here. I could.
If we have to CFD the top option is gonna be jenkiggans unfortunately. If they haven't been replaced by now, then Bullish isn't likely to find a replacement any time soon
the issue is that only solves JenKiggans. In that situation town could do it to punish an inactive, and it's a free mislynch for scum if we assume kiggans is town. Both sides have an incentive to do it.
Makes me want to consider a no-lynch, but then Kiggans being left alive mean they'll be a thorn in town's side basically the rest of the game. I feel like we're forced here actually.
VTL JenKiggans26
Thoth - solid town
I don't think scum is likely to claim that their role contradicts the OP. Possible for town cred but it's drawing a lot of attention so it's hard for me to call Thoth scum here. Only argument is opportunism - that he voted Pie bc Kohai did. But that's not a given. I can see why town would sus Pie's vote on Kohai, so I can't blame him for it. That being said...
Pie - solid town
So, enters the DP immedately pressuring Kohai. Now that could be him distancing Kohai, or just looking to get a mislynch. His stated reasons are that Kohai folds under pressure and that town needs to generate activity. Seems like an RVS vote, maybe looking to get his claim just to nail him down bc he can be mislynch bait, or reaction testing, or all of the above. #19 #32 #72 #73 all seem consistent in that regard. When pressured, he does his strategy of making sure he claims at L-1 to ensure at least two townies want his claim... it's good for info.
I think Pie can fake all of this. But the consistency looks nice and something that can be faked is not inherently scummy; I'm realizing that I started out with the assumption of scum Pie when I shouldn't have. And nothing really strikes as off upon rereading him. So I'm gonna flip my read and go town on Pie.
Unvote
Kohai - tossup
Enters the DP, immediately on the defensive, challenging Pie. Voting off Pie voting him. For Kohai idt the OMGUS is scummy in this situation. Not much else to go off of. He's disappeared, but he's got a holiday today, and late yesterday.
Only thing that feels off is #51. LIke it could be preparing a bad claim/covering for one. Mafia typically has an incentive to have a rational claim, making sure it's air tight. Warnings like that are from players who don't have the strongest fake claiming. I can see Kohai fitting in that camp. But it's no guarantee. I can see Kohai actually just having a stretched justification, given what Thoth has softed.
I continue this in a second but I'm locking in and now I think we should move on from Pie and Kohai. Feels like a dead end.
Idk who to pressure rn.
Pie, and Thoth, what are your thoughts?
gimme a second to organize my thoughts
I'm gonna move vader down to NAI. Only good townread at this point is Thoth
hmmmm Lunatic's more recent posts look better... #139 in particular
oh gr8 no one's here
although scum has an incentive to claim a role that makes sense.. I can see the warning being a just in case but given Thoth's softclaim there might actually be issues with his PM...
You know what? I'm gonna move Kohai to NAI. My thoughts were too based on last game and that's a pitfall.
His reaction to Pie is something I can do as either affiliation.
Still the fact that no one capitalized on the pressure on Kohai is interesting to me. Like you'd think some mafioiso would want to take the opportunity with PIe's push no? Unless they thought Pie was reaction baiting. Assumes town Pie, and PIe also doesn't have any real pressure on him that I'd call opportunistic in nature.
I can however see mafia sitting back and letting town destroy each other, knowing adding pressure would make them look like a pouncing predator.
So honestly Pie/Kohai might juse depends on mafia's plan. Like if they want to pursue a wagon on Pie, I imagine they'd add pressure. But Pie doens't go down easily so he's a hard misylynch to get, so maybe it's better from them to let town run Pie's vote count up, and then get a mislynch off Pie turning on the peopleo n his wagon. That seems like a gfood plan for them
But we should solve Pie first to move on. For a now a claim from him is enough for me.
Originally Posted by Banana on 9/21/2026 at 2:34 AM (post #122)
just got caught up.
okay from readin dp1 heres my analsis:
my strongest scum read is pie. he pushes kohai without any sort of devloped case in 19, immediately dmanding a full clam and asks several ppl to join the wagon. the vote itself can be dismissed as pie being pie, but it does feel ultra aggressive that pie is treating kohai as likely scum without explaining what kohai actually did, then kohai has been very active and contributing to it makes no sense to push him this strongly. in post 39 he manufactures urgency bcuz the day will end in a last minute cfd with no scum elimination but that argument is a hard sell this early on in the game with an extended dp and before much of the roster has even talked, including jenkiggans. i agree with whiteflame chalklenging pie pushing so hard in these circumstances. next, his goal appears to be consolidation rather than investigation. when magic names both pie and kohai as suspects, pie does not adress seriously why he is being suspected by magic, and instead tells magic to vote kohai, which is a convienent attempt to redirect a two sided suspicion entirely onto kohai rather than himself. he is using an earlier game as camoflauge rather than investigation and justification. i think we have seen enough growth and development from kohai though to say that he has improved enough to the point where early pressure is no longer jsutified in every game he is in. it seems more like a deliberate attempt to reproduce the behavior everyone now expects from pie as town. lastly the main reason i suspect pie is that this is just tunneling at this point. while town can tunnel, i would expect some progression to continue justifying his tunnel. if he was getting valid reactions and responses to his tunnel to push a strong conviction, that would be another thing. he is avoiding all pressure on himself and instead just repeatedly dying on the hill that people should wagon his attempt to push kohai into an early claim. by post 120, the push just seems more performative and agenda driven than evidence driven, so pie is my preferred target.
I don't know if that's true. I can see Pie pressuring Kohai as town, I can see him trying to get me to vote Kohai in his response to me as town. His stated agenda is to pressure Kohai and get him to slip early, noting that I sus both and trying to leverage that to get me vote Kohai is perfectly within town Pie's agenda. The sense of urgency bothers me.
Just vote Pie if you want his claim then, put him at L-1, or if that's too risky for you, tell him verbally that you vote is on him in spirit but not officially.
now im not gonna say i town read kohai either, i do scum read him too, but its less than pie. the immediate countervote seems very defensive. refusing an unjustified claim is reasonable, but immediately converting the disagreement into a scum read is less convincing. his case on pie also relies heavily on the last game. kohai presents pies ambiguous meta as more incriminating than it really is. i also am not the biggest fan of his role soft claim. it reads very awkward. this might be an honest warning about a strange setup, but it could also preemptively explain a planned fake claim. i see magic notices this as well. overall he is setting up a safe adversarial relationship with pie. if him and pie are partners a loud and early conflict would give them distance. i dont think its the case tho because the early attention looks bad and forces a claim out of one of the two.
This isn't the reason the scumread Kohai but I see what you're getting at. The issue is that town Kohai will absolutely be defensive if voted out of the blue by Pie. It's NAI.
My issue witrh Kohai that posat where gives a warning that his claim doesnt make sense at all
moreso lunatic than whiteflame
Originally Posted by ILikePie5 on 9/21/2026 at 11:19 AM (post #134)
If you want my full claim, just verbally say it, no need to vote me. I don’t want a mishammer.
do it so we can move on and least get one claim down... after that I might still want to look at kohai but i'm not liking lunatic's and whiteflame's approaches
if kohai and pie are both town lunatic and whiteflame look like they're straddling the game, letting town cruise toward mislynches. just a thought. but we have to come to a conclusion on both PIe and Kohai
... I'm gonna hard call this is exactly what scum LUnatic would do.
I see a few posts from Kohai that vibes well, some that feel bad. Same with Pie. Screw it.
VTL Pie
putting Pie at L-2 just to get a claim out of someone this DP
and then I want to grab Kohai’s claim right after
You two are my early towncore, moreso Thoth than Vader. Thoughts on the thread so far? Who should we push for a claim and why? (Thoth I see you voted, but I still want something in-depth from both of you.)
